I'm not panic-mongering and declaring that we're facing TEOTWAWKI, but the impact of the Iranian war on the world economy is steadily getting worse, and it's going to affect us in the USA as well. We'll be far better off than most countries due to being a net energy exporter, but problems for our major trading partners inevitably end up being our problems as well.
Click on the following headlines to read more information about each point.
Economist who predicted 2008 crash warns something much worse could be coming
"We have returned to a period of risk, one rife with the sort of pressures that have led to major financial crises.
"This time, the risks are spread across industries, markets, and nations: artificial intelligence, the roughly $2 trillion private credit industry, stock markets, Taiwan, and now Iran."
While each of these issues are enough to cause chaos on their own, combined they suggest that another financial crash is inevitable and the ongoing war in Iran is seemingly at the heart of it all.
Russia Halts Ammonium Nitrate Exports As Global Fertilizer Crisis Set To Worsen
Export disruptions of the critical crop nutrient can hit import-dependent buyers hard, especially in markets such as Brazil, Canada, India, Peru, and Ukraine.
Russia's temporary export comes at the worst possible timing as the Northern Hemisphere planting season begins in some regions.
The risk now is that, as the Middle East conflict enters its fourth week, a global energy shock is also spreading to fertlizer markets and may only suggest a delayed food price shock later this year.
Hundreds Of Gas Stations Run Dry In Australia As Hormuz Shock Exposes Energy Security Failures
Australia's weird obsession with "green energy," compounded by a lack of urgency regarding proper energy security, has now collided with the worst energy crisis the world has ever seen.
A country heavily dependent on imported refined petroleum products, many of which transit the Strait of Hormuz, has reached the fourth week of the U.S.-Iran war, but with a full-blown fuel supply shock now underway, and hundreds of gas stations across the country running dry.
Energy Minister Chris Bowen ... warned that fuel supplies were at about 38 days for gasoline. He said only 30 days of diesel and jet fuel remained.
The Rapidly-Gathering Economic Storm
Karl Denninger looks at problems with AI, housing, energy, food, fraud and many other current issues. He concludes: "Is Iran the triggering event? I have no idea. It might be." Go read his whole article. It's food for thought.
Finally, a perspective from England that may be of interest to US preppers as well.
I laughed at bulk-buyers during Covid, but this time I think the preppers are right
I am not what you’d call a natural prepper. Even during the Covid lockdowns, when others piled supermarket trolleys high with giant packs of loo roll, I felt the UK’s shoppers were losing their collective grey matter. But as the war with Iran continues and the Strait of Hormuz remains closed to the ships of the US, Israel and their Western allies, I find myself changing tack.
This time round, I’m with the doomsters. You don’t have to be Nostradamus to foresee that we will all feel the impact from the global supply chain of crude oil, liquefied natural gas, fertilisers, sulphur and helium being suddenly, severely restricted.
Today’s Bright Young Things may soon wake to their very own Great Slump. Before sitting down to write, I saw an American professor of medicine post the following message on X, highlighting just one little-discussed aspect of the problem: “I hope no one needs an MRI this year. The world’s largest producer of liquefied helium is in Qatar and is shut off.” He had just been told that his own institution’s yearly supply will be halved, at best.
That last paragraph is a wake-up call. How many MRI's are performed every day in the USA? What would those needing them (and the doctors who call for them) do if half of them could not be performed? Could this be a life-or-death situation for the patients needing them? I suspect it might.
As I said above, I'm not one to cry "Wolf!", and I don't want to spread alarm and despondency: but forewarned is forearmed. If we need something that may soon be in short supply, now might be a very good time to get it, and beat the rush.
Peter
24 comments:
On the other hand......
With Iran being the financial backer behind the vast majority of terrorism worldwide, perhaps we will reap a really nice economic prize when the ruling junta there are all gone. All of them.... very gone.
As long as we pretend it's just Israel and America against Iran this goes on.
But it's not. Trump has been taking away China's oil and crippling their economic development projects to save the Dollar. First Trump forced Panama to cancel their deal with China running the Panama Canal. Not like China impaired or had different charges for different countries shipping. Just it gave China a foothold in Panama. Second Trump grabbed Madro of Venezuela just after China had agreements signed and investments in Venezuela's nearly crippled Oil business. Now Iran again OIL and worse the terminus of China's Belt and Road economic trade route.
Peter is saying stock up, an EXCELLENT Idea, along with getting on better terms with your neighbors as you're going to need friends when stuff get stupid. I was driving during the last oil embargo and with rationing and odd-even allowed days to buy gasoline RIDE SHARING with neighbors was a good idea.
But back to China and why that makes it different than beating up Iran.
Just one example here, could do it for many critical items in our life:
MEDICINE. Who can get more than 90 days' supply for their heart meds, diabetes meds, blood thinners and so on?
SNIP China is a global manufacturing hub for pharmaceuticals, producing a significant portion of the world's medicines. It accounts for approximately 90% of pharmaceutical products manufactured in the U.S..
China and Iran have been preparing for this little war with America and Israel for more than a decade. Even while swimming in cheap oil China built Coal to Fuel plants years ago to turn China's ABUNDANT low grade brown coal into oil and distillates. WHY? It's MORE EXPENSIVE that imported oil...
Because China prepares and plans a decade ahead.
WHY do you think Iran's ALLOWING safe passage for ships that PAY IN Chinese Yuan? I notice a lot of countries are suddenly declaring themselves non-combatants and paying in Yuan.
That Russia and China have stopped fertilizer isn't an accident. FIRST they are not going to starve their own citizens for the PROFIT of selling elsewhere.
Second crippling the US Dollar. American IMPORTS 15% of their fertilizer. Our fertilizer factories are already max capacity SO some 15% of American Farmers are going without.
Food and Oil, stuff we normally export to pay for imports. We are going to have to reduce or stop both to keep things going at home. No dollar sales there.
Saudi Arabia ALREADY sells oil in Yuan and Rubles and Indian Rupees as does all of them.
We are in serious trouble.
Got trusted friends and trusted family to get through the chaos of an economic crash AND the GIMME DAT chaos as their EBT cards fail?
buying in bulk is always a always a good idea if it stuff you really use. something I learned from Mom years ago. also too is the fact that our dollar is losing value as we speak !
take coffee for one item. I drink it a lot. so I stocked up on it years ago. like 3 pounds cans of it. its canned and keeps a really long time.
prices on some of the older cans are like 11 bucks. yeah, it that old. like 6-7 years at least.
still tastes great though. nice hiss when I open up a new can. what coffee going for now ?
18 bucks to 33 oz. ?
canned goods last a lot longer than most people think they do. if kept dry and cool.
LOL like a tiny bit of oil in a nation that will fight us until we genocide every one of them will be a "perhaps we will reap a really nice economic prize ".
How well did Afghanistan turn out?
The Army just raised enlistment age to 42.
Yup, won't be long now.
There go the helium birthday balloon businesses.
Perhaps, these actions are not to prop up the dollar, but to stop Chinese interference in our government and terrorist actions against the US.
There's more in play than the news shows.
Put your trust in God.
What's particularly vexing about this whole mess is that America in particular and most of the world in general could have quite easily avoided this whole mess.
America at some point clamped down on the farms. Our government pays for food not to be grown. Reverse that and probably within 3 years we could fix our internal food issues. (3 years due to lead time needed to finish the current crop, grow the crop to produce the seeds needed for full planting, then full planting.)
We have plenty of oil, coal, and nuclear plants. All three have been hampered badly by leftist in general and politicians who were likely taking bribes. Fire them all up and that would sort out our electricity, and gas issues. Again has a lead time of probably (1 to 2 years.) You can't just snap you fingers, the machinery has to be tested, fired up, etc. Then logistical networks have to be reworked.
Then there are the imports. What a horrible idea, and the idiot politicians and businessmen who pushed for offshoring the manufacturing probably should have been hung just to improve the gene-pool if nothing else.
There isn't really a good way to rebuilt this right now. The dollar has been debased to badly for wages to compete with foreign wages. It would likely take 30-50 years of no more printing money, paying back the principal on the debt the US owes, and then bringing us dollars back and destroying them. Effectively deflation. For those who don't know the current dollar can purchase what 3 cent out of a 1913 dollar could purchase. Or in other-words the dollar has lost 97% of its purchasing power sense 1913.
Moving on the last thing any country can do, and America in particular is cut all ties with Israel. They are not an ally despite their words, and every single nation that has dealt with them has been harmed or attacked depending. The people in Israel are people same as everyone else. But their government is a plague upon the world.
Frankly I like to quote the prophet Zechariah about Israel in the last days of the Age of Grace. In Zachariah 12:2-3
"Behold, I will make Jerusalem a cup of trembling unto all the people round about, when they shall be in the siege both against Judah and against Jerusalem.
And in that day will I make Jerusalem a burdensome stone for all people: all that burden themselves with it shall be cut in pieces, though all the people of the earth be gathered against it."
Quite frankly I would greatly prefer we not be burdened with them. We could quite easily avoid being cut apart by simply cutting them off and ignoring them and their government's endless requests for more money and more weapons. At the very least it would keep us from getting dragged into their wars constantly.
Anyway that is my 2 cent on how to fix this mess.
- W
Just like during Covid, panic buying will cause shortages to become a self-fulfilling prophecy.
Which, of course, "proves" that the panic was justified in the first place right?
Nothing wrong with being prepared, but waiting until the panic mongers start their doomsday predictions is a bit late to start preparing if you ask me.
BTW: I get the concern about meds...that's a big deal if they start getting scarce...but I'm curious how you stock up on them? My insurance company won't pay for more than a 90 day supply at the most...most of the time it's 30. Even if I pay out of pocket, my experience is that pharmacies will refuse to provide more than the prescription calls for during a refill period. So how do you stock up on prescription medicines?
I know the "get refills early and store extras for a rainy day" method, but that's a long-term strategy, not something you can do on the eve of an emergency.
Lol, maybe you should visit the AIPAC site and read their Mission Statement.
But then again CONgress (spelling intentional) never refused another bribe.
Michael the anonymous
He says in a squeaky high pitched voice ...
Go walk through a few food stores, canned meat is scarce, Sam's and Costco had nothing but chicken, corned beef, Spam and fish, Kroger has a bit more variety but shelves are thin and prices high.
I ordered a lot of dry beans and we have several cases of canned meats so we may be eating bean soup a lot, but we will be eating.
It is easy to predict catastrophe, and is cost-free to do so. Many who get it right once have predicted 10 of the last 2 catastrophes. I would go with, "Be not afraid, but be prepared." I would avoid panic buying, because one has a 2 month pantry. I would have my propane already purchased. I would be prepared to reduce driving, and pay more at the pump. I wouldn't be buying up gas cans or other storage devices. panicked people don't act smart. Don't panic, stay smart, be in control, be prepared for a crisis, whether it be job loss, health emergency, or "Some damn thing in the Balkans." Life is easier that way.
That is the worst reading of Zechariah 12 I've ever seen.
Here's Zechariah 12:1-9
"The oracle of the word of the Lord concerning Israel: Thus declares the Lord, who stretched out the heavens and founded the earth and formed the spirit of man within him: “Behold, I am about to make Jerusalem a cup of staggering to all the surrounding peoples. The siege of Jerusalem will also be against Judah. On that day I will make Jerusalem a heavy stone for all the peoples. All who lift it will surely hurt themselves. And all the nations of the earth will gather against it. On that day, declares the Lord, I will strike every horse with panic, and its rider with madness. But for the sake of the house of Judah I will keep my eyes open, when I strike every horse of the peoples with blindness. Then the clans of Judah shall say to themselves, ‘The inhabitants of Jerusalem have strength through the Lord of hosts, their God.’
“On that day I will make the clans of Judah like a blazing pot in the midst of wood, like a flaming torch among sheaves. And they shall devour to the right and to the left all the surrounding peoples, while Jerusalem shall again be inhabited in its place, in Jerusalem.
"And the Lord will give salvation to the tents of Judah first, that the glory of the house of David and the glory of the inhabitants of Jerusalem may not surpass that of Judah. On that day the Lord will protect the inhabitants of Jerusalem, so that the feeblest among them on that day shall be like David, and the house of David shall be like God, like the angel of the Lord, going before them. And on that day I will seek to destroy all the nations that come against Jerusalem."
Kind of sounds to me that the good Lord dislikes your suggestion, and that your reading of scripture is eisegetical.
Yup, a not so gentle slide to the bottom. Do stock up with food, water, and dry goods that you constantly use. A three month stock for all of the people in your household might be a good minimum.
Like I said before, Jimmy Carter’s forever war with Iran just keeps on going.
To Annon at 3:25 at 2:23pm
Simply putting the entirety of the chapter does not invalidate what I wrote. I assume you are likely either trying to state that this particular prophecy was old testament only. Or. No I can't think of any other viewpoint you might have had, seeing as you actually given none.
So if I am correct and your view is that this was solely for Old Testament times. I would like to note the following points since you were so kind as to provide the entire chapter.
Verse 2 "all the people round about" this would very likely be referring to the nations around Israel. I think we can fairly well claim that Israel is currently under siege even if only a single nation is actively fighting them thus far.
Verse 3 "all the people of the earth be gathered together against it." This expands things. Note the use of phrase all the people of the Earth, considering the prior verse, I feel fairly safe thinking that when it says all the people of the earth it refers to every nation on earth.
Verse 4 "I will smite every horse with astonishment, and his rider with madness ... and I will smite every horse of the people with blindness." First I freely admit I am not sure where the horses come in. Possibly it is referring to people of means and power. But what is interesting is that they are being struck with madness and blindness. It also specifically refers to the house of Judah, not the nations surrounding it.
Verse 6 Now this is an interesting point. "and they shall devour all the people round about, on the right hand and on the left...." A simple read of this would indicate that Israel at this point of time would be invading or conquering or killing their neighbors on all sides. Sound familiar? It should certainly be ringing bells in your memory.
Verse 9 "And it shall come to pass in that day, that I will seek to destroy all the nations that come against Jerusalem." This points back to the burdensome stone and all that burden themselves with it being cut to pieces. Again making my point that I would prefer we not be mixed into this in any way shape or form.
Verse 10 "and they shall look upon me whom they have pierced." This happens at the triumphal return of Jesus. That my friend is at the end of the Great Tribulation, the last moments of the Age of Grace. It is impossible for that to have happened yet.
I would like to note for the record, that I tend to write long posts, which is why I did not write out the entire chapter. I would also like to note, that I put down chapter and verse numbers so that if anyone is interested they can go back to check.
Final thought. To Annon. If you want to say something like "Kind of sounds to me that the good Lord dislikes your suggestion, and that your reading of scripture is eisegetical." Perhaps next time you might consider making your points known rather than assuming any of us can read your mind. Either way. My point stands.
- W
Oh and a post note. Use something to differentiate yourself from the other anons. Its just basic curtsy so that people know who is speaking or in this case writing.
- W
OTOH: TEOTWAWKI has occurred several times in my lifetime.
OT2H: We do live in "interesting times". As in, "future history majors are going to mine this time period for all sorts of "interesting" thesis topics for the next century or millennium."
Once that become feasible again.
by far the largest producer of Helium in the world is the US.
The facts don't support your comment, sir:
SNIP Yes, the United States imports helium, supplementing domestic production to meet industrial, medical, and scientific demand.
Domestic Production and Reserves
The U.S. has historically been a major helium producer, with the Federal Helium Reserve in Amarillo, Texas, supplying up to 30% of the country’s helium. Additional smaller facilities exist in states like Colorado and Wyoming, but domestic production alone is insufficient to meet total demand, especially for critical uses such as MRI machines, semiconductor manufacturing, and aerospace applications.
And SNIP
Global Supply Considerations
Globally, helium is produced as a byproduct of natural gas extraction. Qatar and Russia are among the largest producers, with Qatar historically supplying roughly one-third of the world’s helium. Geopolitical events, such as the Iran-Qatar conflict, have disrupted helium production and shipping, highlighting the U.S.’s reliance on foreign sources to maintain critical industrial and medical operations.
Just a few moments of asking your computers favorite search engine if America is "by far the largest Helium producer" could have stopped your posting.
The Epstein Fury war is a Tar Baby that will be harming America for years after the smoke clears.
As the poster, I will explain this in simple terms.
If you actually read the text as written, it is obvious that the nations that God goes after are the ones who are *attacking* Israel, not ones that are *allied* to it.
As to your speculation about verses 4 and 5--yes, it does specifically mention the house of Judah. However, let's look at how the house of Judah is mentioned.
"v. 4: But for the sake of the house of Judah I will keep my eyes open, when I strike every horse of the peoples with blindness. "
As a general rule, when people say, "for the sake of X, I will do Y," Y is intended to benefit X, not harm X.
v. 5 Then the clans of Judah shall say to themselves, ‘The inhabitants of Jerusalem have strength through the Lord of hosts, their God.’
Which further reinforces my point. If the affliction was on the defenders of Jerusalem, then the clans of Judah would be saying something more like, "Jerusalem has been judged by God," not "Jerusalem has been made stronger by God."
Sorry, mac. You can't use Zechariah to support your contention that we should drop Israel. Or, rather, you can, but continuing to do so will cause my days of not taking you seriously to come to a middle.
Are folks immune to the idea that the Old Testament has been replaced by the New Testament?
That the promise to the descendants of Abraham was already fulfilled and no longer valid?
For example, and I could flood this site with more:
Matthew 3
7 But when he saw many of the Pharisees and Sadducees coming to where he was baptizing, he said to them: “You brood of vipers! Who warned you to flee from the coming wrath? 8 Produce fruit in keeping with repentance. 9 And do not think you can say to yourselves, ‘We have Abraham as our father.’ I tell you that out of these stones God can raise up children for Abraham. 10 The ax is already at the root of the trees, and every tree that does not produce good fruit will be cut down and thrown into the fire.
How many times in the history of the Jews in the Bible were they nearly destroyed because they stopped obeying God and went for sinful sacrifice babies to Baal and such?
The People of God are those that follow HIS SON. Those that choose to live by the OT LAW are required to LIVE by that LAW. I didn't notice when I was working in Israel for 6 months that anybody was offering burnt sacrifices and other blood sacrifices as required by the LAW.
Please quote scripture if you disagree. I'd love to hear scriptures that somehow grant the VERY Secular LBGQTXYZ supporting Israel as somehow blessed by God.
God works on HIS timeframe. End of the world scenarios have been around nearly forever. Israel has been destroyed and rebuilt MANY Times. Maybe again?
To Anon at 3/26 at 4:02pm
"If you actually read the text as written,"
Lets do that then shall we.
Verse 2 "Behold I will make Jerusalem a cup of trembling unto all the people round about, when they shall be in the siege both against Judah and Jerusalem."
Verse 3 "And in that day will I make Jerusalem a burdensome stone for all people: all that burden themselves with it shall be cut in pieces, though all the people of the earth be gathered together against it."
Verse 4 "In that day, saith the Lord, I will smite every horse with astonishment, and his rider with madness: and I will open mine eyes upon the house of Judah, and will smite every horse of the people with blindness."
Verse 5 " And the governors of Judah shall say in their heart, The inhabitants of Jerusalem shall be my strength in the Lord of hosts their God."
Verse 6 "In that day will I make the governors of Judah like an hearth of fire among the wood, and like a torch of fire in a sheaf; and they shall devour all the people round about, on the right hand and on the left: and Jerusalem shall be inhabited again in her own place, even in Jerusalem."
Just a simple read of verses 4-6 should show you that everyone (likely speaking of the powerful due to the horses) will be struck with madness. Note the word everyone due to the wording of the text "every horse with astonishment, and his rider" Specifically the word "every"
Continuing the leaders of Israel will be struck with blindness. Note the wording did not say the surrounding regions. It did not say all the world. It did not say every horse and his rider. It specifically named the house of Judah and every horse of the people.
Typically when struck by blindness it generally means that those struck will not see the consequences of their actions.
Continuing down to Verse 6, note the wording. "like a torch of fire in a sheaf; and they shall devour all the people round about, on the right hand and on the left."
Israel has been attacking, burning, invading, etc. Quite literally all their neighbors, be they Syria, Iraq, Iran, Lebanon, Gaza, etc. They have been acting like a fire burning everything around. Heck the wording specifically calls out "the governors of Judah." None of this is coming from the Jews themselves, but their government has been acting this way, just as it was written.
Now you claim that only those hostile to Israel will be harmed. I refute your claim.
Verse 3 is quite clear. "And in that day will I make Jerusalem a burdensome stone for all people; all that burden themselves with it shall be cut in pieces, though all the people of the earth be gathered together against it."
Note how nowhere in that verse does it say only those hostile to Israel. No, it specifically states that Jerusalem will be a burdensome stone for (ALL PEOPLE) and that (ALL) that burden themselves with it shall be cut in pieces.
Now you could make a fair case that it specifically speaks about the city itself and not Israel as a whole, but in this case either seems to fit.
My point about wanting the US to cut all ties with Israel stands firm. They are not our friends, and frankly they have harmed us more than most of our enemies at this point. Looking ahead it would appear even worse.
Continuing your point about Verse 5 "The inhabitants of Jerusalem shall be my strength in the Lord of hosts their God." Makes no sense due to two factors that contradict your point.
First in verse 5 it right before that it states "And the governors of Judah shall say in their heart, ..." Simply be basic reading you can see that they are thinking that their numbers is the strength of the Lord.
It in no way states that the Lord does anything, defense, offense, or otherwise. It simply states that they believe in their hearts that "The people of Jerusalem shall be (my) strength ..." Considering the very next verse is the one talking about how the governors burn and devour all their neighbors. That in my view is a fairly damning point.
- W
Continuing my comment. ( - W)
Second again going back to my prior point, nowhere does it actually state that the cutting will only be those hostile. Where as the actual text states the word. (All) which is pretty damning especially considering the prior two lines state that "for (all) people..." and "(all) that burden themselves." Make it fairly clear that this burdensome stone doesn't discriminate in who it cuts.
My point still stands. The US should drop Israel like a hot potato, preferably before things get worse. Their wars of invasion and hatred are not ours, and we should not be pouring blood and treasure into the quagmire of their ambitions. It will lead us to nothing besides ruin and devastation.
Lastly to Michael at 3/26 at 5:10pm
I would like to address your point. While yes we who are saved during the Age of Grace are given the New Testament, that does not mean the Old Testament is to be tossed out, or that it does not effect things today.
Something like 1/3rd to 2/3rds of the bible is prophecy. Yes it is often difficult to figure out what it means before time, but as we are told in John 14:29 "And now I have told you before it come to pass, that, when it is come to pass, ye might believe."
While this was written in John, I feel it applied to all the word. After all what is prophecy if not the Lord telling us what is to come so that when it does come to pass we can see that the Lord is who he says he is.
This is one of the reasons why the Old Testament is important and why you see it discussed in times and places like this. Many of the prophecies given about the end of the Age of Grace take place in the Old Testament. And going by current events we could be witnessing some of them taking place or getting set up to take place.
Which is why they are brought up. For instance see above about Zechariah 12:6 which speaks of the governors of Judah devouring and burning their neighbors on all sides.
By itself its not really that important. However it is important for 3 reasons. First as showing in Verse 3 the consequences of getting involved with Israel.
Second it offers proof that the Lord is who is says he is. Hopefully bringing those who doubt to salvation. Lastly its important due to Verse 10 stating that they will look upon Jesus and mourn. That can only take place at his return. Which if what we are seeing is this prophecy in action, then we are very close to his return.
-W
People, can we please stop the scriptural exegetical arguments? We're never going to agree on questions of faith, and practical economics will do whatever it's going to do regardless of our beliefs.
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