More about supply chain shortages

 

Following my lengthy article yesterday about how problems with the supply chain are affecting US businesses and consumers, I had a number of e-mails from people sharing how they're experiencing the problem (or, in one case, not).  I also found, or was referred to, a few other articles discussing the issue.

First, from Michigan, reader B. N. writes (I've shortened and tightened up his lengthy comment, and removed a few profanities):

Part of the problem is that same-company stores in different areas get different selections for their customers.  Poor neighborhood = smaller quantities, fewer selections, and they often run out of essentials.  Richer neighborhood = larger quantities, better selection, and they seldom run out.  (Their prices are often higher, too.)  It's like consumer apartheid.  Your supply chain in your area depends on the color of your and your neighbors' wallets - the greener (and fatter), the better.

That's probably an accurate comment.  Not surprising, either.  Companies will "follow the money" with their products.  They'll put more effort into areas where they can make more money, and vice versa.  Customers with less money are less important to their bottom line.  Capitalism, baby!

Divemedic has a couple of interesting posts.  In the first, he notes:

[The in-laws] went shopping for a new refrigerator, and there were not many to be had. It turns out that there is no supply coming from overseas, where most of them are made. The ones that ARE getting through are not enough to meet demand. There are lengthy backorders.

Yet another sign that the economy is grinding to a halt is coming from the auto industry. GM and Ford have suspended the production of pickup trucks because of the shortage in computer chips ... If this is a disaster for Ford, it is also a disaster for the US economy. Ford is the 21st largest company in the USA, and GM is the 22nd.

We are seeing shortages in all sorts of things: supplies are hard to find. Chicken, lumber, microchips, gas, steel, metals, chlorine, and ketchup packets are all in short supply. We shut down the world’s economy, and it is not wanting to restart. We can’t even get people to return to work.

“Experts” can argue about it for months, but no matter the cause, the result is the same. This slowdown of the economy is going to continue for months, perhaps several years. How many businesses will fail as a result is anyone’s guess. One thing is for sure, though. The economy is going to get much, much worse. Inflation is going to increase markedly as the law of supply and demand begins to take hold. Once Suzy Soccermom figures out that there is a problem, expect panic buying and even more shortages as she begins to panic shop for things.

The things that begin to skyrocket in price and see scarcity will probably not make sense. Remember the toilet paper shortage of last year? Like that, but with more products being involved.

Significantly, he concludes (and I can't say I blame him):

I am getting completely out of the stock market. We began a complete sell off last week. As soon as funds are released, we are moving into other investments, things that are not based in the US dollar.

There's more at the link.

In a follow-up post, Divemedic adds:

There are shortages, but they are being stealthy about it. My local grocery store isn’t doing anything so obvious as to leave shelves bare. A great example:

The canned soup section was most of one side of an entire aisle just before COVID began. Now the selection is much smaller, and the soup section has shrunk down to less than half the size that it was. The produce doesn’t look as good as it used to - more blemishes, more wilting on the leafy greens, that sort of thing.

He added this video, containing a price warning from Canadian Prepper.  It's worth watching.  I've blocked out a 2¼-minute segment containing the meat of the matter, so it won't take you long to listen and learn.  If you'd like to watch the whole thing, follow the YouTube link at the bottom of the picture.

Atomic Fungus has similar observations to mine.

There isn't enough spare shipping capacity to make up for the backlog, either. "Just in time" has been wrecked; there's enough shipping capacity to keep the stuff flowing as long as nothing interrupts the cycle--but because of the Coof shutdowns, now there's a backlog, and the ships cannot carry more cargo lest they sink, and they can't move any faster.

And all those people who load and unload ships are union babies. You do the math on that one.

So let's revisit "For want of a nail":

For want of a nail the shoe was lost.
For want of a shoe the horse was lost.
For want of a horse the rider was lost.
For want of a rider the message was lost.
For want of a message the battle was lost.
For want of a battle the kingdom was lost.
And all for the want of a horseshoe nail.

Now, when "just in time" is working, that nail gets to the blacksmith just in time for him to shoe the horse so the rider can carry the message etc. But right now? Nails aren't being delivered just in time.

I've been out of docking stations for laptop computers since May. They were ordered at least that long ago. About six weeks ago, the customer service person at the near grocery store said they weren't getting any diet Mountain Dew even though they'd repeatedly ordered it. Getting my wife's favorite water-flavored water is hit-or-miss. KFC doesn't have chicken wings. Can't buy pre-packaged Jell-o.

So? Ford can't get chips so they can't build trucks. Guys who need trucks to accomplish tasks can't get trucks so they can't get things done. The people who need those tasks done can't get them done at any price, which makes their productivity fall. And on, and on, and on--

Again, more at the link.

Let me provide a few more personal perspectives.  I was browsing online, and noted that the house air-conditioning filters we use had gone up in price from the mid-$20's per pack to double that in some stores.  (Needless to say, they're made in China.)  That galvanized me to run down to Sams Club, which usually offers them at lower prices:  but even there, they're now in the $10-per-filter range.  That's horrifying, considering that it was only a couple of months ago that I bought them for less than two-thirds of that.  I bought a couple more packs, to ensure we have enough for the next year.

I also decided to look for the synthetic oil we use in our vehicles, and some spare oil filters.  The filters weren't available at all from our usual source, and the 5-quart container of oil was 60% higher in price than the last time I bought it.  Again, Sams Club to the rescue:  they had a different variant of synthetic oil from the same manufacturer, of the same viscosity, packed in quarts rather than larger containers.  A 6-pack was only about 10% more (on a quantity comparison) than I paid last time.  Guess what got added to my cart, instanter?  I may just go back and get a couple more today!

As for vehicle tires . . . that's a conundrum.  If you buy a spare set of tires to fit your vehicle, while they're available at present, but you won't need them for a couple of years, they'll deteriorate while sitting in your garage (the rubber compound perishes over time).  On the other hand, they may not be available when you do need them.  I'm going to have to mull over that question.

Another question is vehicle replacement.  After our mechanic's comments yesterday, I spoke to a friend who sells cars at a local dealership.  He said bluntly that used car prices are now "stupid".  Cars up to 3-4 years old, with less than 50,000 miles on the clock, now cost almost as much - in some cases, more - than brand-new vehicles.  To get any sort of bargain today, you're looking at buying something 6-8 years old, with 80,000-100,000 miles on the odometer.  Unless you're prepared to live with that, his suggestion is to put your name on a waiting list for a new vehicle (making sure that if you don't take it, you won't lose your deposit - some dealers will be flexible with that, others won't).

However, not all countries are experiencing the supply chain crunch as badly as we are.  From Thailand, Larry C. e-mails:

Outside the USA and other “Western” countries, its not like that.  Not yet, anyway.  I live in Bangkok, Thailand;  American business owner, now retired.  I read Peter’s column every day from over here.

Food and supplies here in good supply.  Not great.  Not every color or flavor, but still plenty to buy.  Supermarkets have abundance of rib-eye steaks and home-style sausages.  Convenience stores (eg. 7-Eleven) plenty of Lay’s potato chips and Haagen-Dazs ice cream.  And many stores deliver free, with plenty of workers available to do that.

Many small shops – like mobile phone repair shops – have closed due to lack of business, but some, enough, are still open.  My old computer printer died last week.  At nearby mall, first two computer shops I went into were sold out of the model I wanted.  Third shop had exactly that model.  At exactly list price, no gouging.

In this part of the world, people don’t “prep”, because they can always retreat to the family farm.  But from what I see here so far, plenty of rice and fish and vegetables in every market.  I like Saba fish.  Imported, frozen.  Two years ago, order today, delivered tomorrow.  Now, sometimes out of stock.  So, I make do with other fish like Pacific Cod or Barramundi.  Not a problem.

Am I stocking up?  Not at all.  Even essential drinking water.  Order today and the water company delivers tomorrow.  Delivery is free for order over $15.00.  And plenty of workers to handle deliveries.

Will this horn of plenty dry up?  Maybe, but I don’t see any signs of it happening.  I’m thinking, instead of paying thousands to rebuild the engine on an old truck, why not buy a plane ticket to some other country.  Thailand is difficult because of the language gap, but Mexico might be a worthwhile option.  Web blog “Jim Stone Freelance” reports no shortages of anything where he lives in central Mexico.  Even high quality air guns are plentiful.

I escaped from America 20 years ago, and, now, reading comments here, very pleased that I took the risk to get out.

Thanks for writing, Larry.  It's good to get an external perspective.

I emphasize once again, the supply chain crunch in the USA is a reality that cannot be changed in the short term.  Like it or not, we're stuck with it:  and, like it or not, we're stuck with the economic problems and hard times it'll bring with it.  There's no undoing that now.  It's inevitable.  The best we can do is to prepare for it as best we can, by stocking up on essential items right now, before they vanish from our shelves, and then by being super-careful and vigilant every single day.  It may boil down to searching online every day for something we need, and rushing in with our credit card to buy it as soon as we find it, irrespective of price, before someone else gets in ahead of us.

That's not a pleasant thought.

Peter

Afghanistan update #3

 

In a previous article, I mentioned that there were "private", unofficial operations going on to extricate former allies and trapped Americans from Afghanistan.  In a later update, I added more information.  I guess it's time for another progress report, at least the details I'm allowed to mention.

It appears that the Afghan pilots who flew their aircraft to safety in Uzbekistan have been accommodated in the United Arab Emirates, at least for now, getting them out of reach of the Taliban.  In my last article, I mentioned that "One [nation] in particular, in the Persian Gulf area, has a long tradition of hiring mercenaries for its armed forces, and is apparently very interested" in the refugee Afghan military personnel.  Yes, that was the UAE, and now that news reports have named the country, I feel free to do so here too.  It's apparently also interested in the US-trained Afghan Special Forces soldiers who've been able to make their escape.  I daresay we may see a "UAE Foreign Legion" or something like that in due course.  (Interestingly, a similar approach is being considered in Britain.)

In a discussion in the comments to my last article, I replied to inquiries about making donations to help the rescue efforts by saying I'd post something two Mondays ago.  Sadly, I wasn't able to do so at the time.  There are three reasons:

1. There are massive fraudulent fund-raising efforts going on, with people claiming to represent "Operation Pineapple" or other "operations", claiming to want to fund the rescue of abandoned dogs, and so on.  I didn't want to get lumped in with them in anyone's mind.  Basically, if you don't have absolute certainty that the fund-raising request is legitimate (e.g. from Michael Yon or other trustworthy individuals), don't donate.
2. There's immense US government pressure on the independent rescue efforts.  I'm told the State Department is not only blocking the departure of rescue planes from Afghanistan, but is actively warning other nations about the impending arrival (in transit to Afghanistan) of Americans it deems suspicious.  (That's what led to the arrest of several rescue "operators" in Dubai.)  This is impacting fund-raising efforts for "real deal" operators, because they fear (with good reason) that any funds going through banks will be traced back to their source, and forward to their recipient, and that such information will be used against all concerned.
3. There are, indeed, fund-raising efforts going on;  but they're dealing in cash, with trusted individuals only, and being circulated by word of mouth.  I can't offer any guarantees, warranties or assurances about funds sent in that way - it's strictly on an honor basis, with the donor having to take the word of the recipient that the money will be appropriately used.  I can't offer my guarantee on behalf of someone else, so I'm not doing a broad-based fund-raiser for them.  (I considered organizing another firearm raffle for them, but the same problems would apply.)  There are always those who'll distrust others and question their motives.  Any assistance I provide is therefore private, and I include only individuals whom I know personally, who've contacted me on their own initiative and asked to help.  They know me well enough to trust me, and I'm satisfied with that.

Suffice it to say that rescue operations are ongoing, but with minimum publicity to avoid interference from US government sources.  I'm informed that the total number rescued and escorted out of the country now numbers in the "multiple thousands", and that by the time things wind down, it may reach five figures.

There's also interesting information about internal developments.  There's apparently some sort of power struggle going on within the Taliban, with different tribal and ethnic groups trying to carve out niches for themselves at the expense of the Pashtuns who've traditionally run the movement.  This has degenerated into armed conflict at times, with at least one senior Taliban leader allegedly being shot (although the Taliban have denied that he's dead).  Relief workers on the ground are said to be taking every advantage of the confusion and in-fighting to get people out of the country while Taliban forces are distracted.  I daresay they might even be encouraging the internal dissent through discreet s***-stirring.  I can recall similar tactics in another war, on another continent . . .

I can't say any more in a public forum.  All I know is, if anyone ever writes a book about this (and it won't be me), it'll be riveting!

Peter

Our crumbling supply chain, and what it means for you

 

I've been reading as much as I can about what's happening to our supply chain, both into and out of the USA.  I've also been corresponding with friends, and reading messages on an e-mail chain to which I belong about how other people are finding supply issues impacting their day-to-day lives.  I thought it was about time to put it all together into a picture of where we are now.

First, let's look at how the international supply chain to the USA is being impacted by freight and shipping problems.

Somewhere in the world’s busiest port of Shanghai, a container of fertilizer sits among tens of thousands of boxes, waiting for a ride to the U.S. It’s been on the dock for months, trapped by typhoons and Covid outbreaks that have worsened major congestion in the global supply-chain network.

. . .

... in February ... a supplier for farmers in Illinois placed an order for eight container boxes filled with fertilizer from factories in central China.

Before the pandemic, a batch like this would typically arrive in Chicago in April ... But by May some of the fertilizer was still sitting in Chongqing, 2,400 kilometers west of Shanghai, where it was manufactured. The culprit: a shortage of empty containers for transport. The crucial return of these steel boxes from trips to the U.S. and Europe has been delayed by everything from understaffing to a lack of trucking equipment to move goods out of ports.

. . .

The fertilizer was loaded into the containers, and they were driven to barge vessels on the Yangtze River.

The trip down China’s busiest inland waterway took eight days. This container was lucky as it was shipped ahead of typhoon season. Others recently haven’t been so fortunate.

. . .

While the shipment avoided any flooding disasters, it couldn’t escape high transit costs, as freight rates have skyrocketed on international routes as well as along the Yangtze ... The container finally arrived in Shanghai on May 27 and a truck delivered it to the world’s busiest port.

Kranig isn’t sure why the container is still stuck in Shanghai while seven other boxes of the shipment found their way to Chicago, but he suspects the chaos that hit Chinese ports is a major factor. The pandemic has thrown shipping into upheaval over the past year and a half, with China becoming a major choke point.

. . .

For now, the unlucky box of fertilizer remains stranded among the stacks at the port, buried like the crate in the final scene of “Raiders of the Lost Ark.”

Once the fertilizer finally hitches a ride to the U.S., the risks aren’t over. The Pacific can be a treacherous crossing for ship captains racing to meet deadlines. And when the cargo safely arrives on the North American coast, more headaches await.

The biggest U.S. trade gateway with Asia has been clogged with the most inbound container vessels in more than six months ... Next comes the inland journey. It could take another one to three months for the container to get from a West Coast port to Chicago by rail or truck.

There's more at the link.

So, there you have it.  Order placed in February, expected to arrive in April - but it's now well into September, and it still hasn't arrived.  Some may say, "Well, that's only fertilizer.  It's not important."  Not so fast.  The farmers who would have bought it couldn't get it when they needed it, so they'll probably produce fewer crops this year.  That, in turn, impacts all those businesses supplying farms with what they need - not just fertilizer, but seed, farm implements and machines, cattle feed, things the farmer would buy for his household but now can't afford, and so on.  The dealer who would have sold the fertilizer has had to pay for his shipment, but hasn't received the goods yet, and will have to pay through the nose for higher freight charges, meaning he'll have to sell the fertilizer at a much higher price to cover all its costs.  If his customers can't afford those prices, he may go out of business.  That single supply chain issue has probably impacted anywhere from a dozen to a score of individuals and small businesses - and it's only one issue among millions of them.  Their cumulative economic impact is staggering.

Wolf Richter calls it "The Peak Shipping Season From Hell".

There are currently 56 cargo ships anchored in front of the ports of Los Angeles and Long Beach. This includes a record of 44 container ships, bypassing the infamous record of 40 set in February 2021. This is the run-up to the holiday selling season in the US, when retailers are desperately trying to stock up their inventories, which from many categories, including apparel, have already been running low.

. . .

Since production of many consumer goods has been offshored by Corporate America, from Apple to Zappos, to cheap-labor countries, this stuff has to be imported.

. . .

Now is peak shipping season in the run-up to holiday selling season, and ports are congested, rail yards are bogged down with containers, shippers are complaining about a driver shortage in the trucking industry, warehouses are full, everyone is complaining about labor shortages, and containers get stuck and tangled up and rerouted.

Each container that sits on a ship that is at anchor waiting for a berth, or that is stuck in a rail yard or port somewhere, is a container that another shipper with merchandise ready to ship cannot get their hands on.  And there has been a mad scramble underway to just get empty containers.

The port congestion in Asia isn’t helping.

. . .

When you talk to people have to get containers shipped to the US or from the US to Asia, you hear a litany of stories about “containers from hell,” that got hung up somewhere, then were rerouted, then got hung up somewhere else, and finally arrived way behind schedule, and after endless hours of trying to sort it all out.

And they’re complaining about sky-high rates ... There are complaints that the container carriers ... are just doing whatever they want and charging whatever they want, and are getting away with it, to the endless frustration of shippers. And those shippers then have to figure out a way to pass on the extra costs to their customers. And that’s happening too.

Again, more at the link.

The supply chain disruption is hammering US exporters as well.  To take just one example, agricultural exports are being seriously affected - a situation made worse by Hurricane Ida a few weeks ago.

... the pandemic-driven disruption to supply chains has had a major knock-on effect for containerized grain and oilseed exporters: lack of containers in the interior, and chassis to move the containers on the road. The extreme volume increase of imports - and resulting congestion - in such a relatively short time has caused ocean carriers to begin restricting container flow to major rail-served interior markets. This has particularly choked container availability in Chicago, from where a significant portion of the US’ containerized agri exports originate.

Taken together, the hopes of farmers, exporters, and buyers were pinned on the ports and terminals of South Louisiana being able to pick up the slack for export capacity as the US enters harvest. Unfortunately, this will not be the case until at least October or even November. Both of Cargill’s terminals in the region impacted by [Hurricane] Ida are offline, with the 6-million bushel capacity facility in Reserve suffering extreme damage that could take months to repair. CHS Inc.’s primary export terminal at Myrtle Grove also suffered damage to the power lines that serve the facility, along with water intrusion to the grain handling equipment. Similarly, Archer Daniels Midland, Zen-Noh, LDC, and Bunge have reported power interruptions and varying degrees of damage at their regional facilities. Lastly, navigation on the lower Mississippi River continues to be slowed by flotsam and power outages.

Now, what does this have to do with China and the immediate future of the Transpacific power struggle?

In short - China is desperately short of crucial grains and oilseeds needed for domestic human and animal consumption ... Despite China’s rosy claims about its 2020 production, its year-long buying binge for available global inventory of grains and oilseeds indicates significant flooding-related production woes in several major agricultural reasons in the Yangtze River and Amur River basins. 2021 is shaping up to be potentially as bad ... Closely related to the trade indicators for grain production, import, and consumption is the issue of animal feed.

Bringing it full circle to the devastation to US agri export capacity wrought by Hurricane Ida, there is now an imbalance of supply and demand such as we have not seen in a long time.

More at the link.

This is now having greater and greater impact on US vendors and consumers, who can't get what they need when they need it.  Two examples of recent articles:

From zippers to glass, shortages of basic goods hobble U.S. economy

Shortages of metals, plastics, wood and even liquor bottles are now the norm.  The upshot is a world where buyers must wait for delivery of items that were once plentiful, if they can get them at all ... Along with the shortages come hefty price increases, which has fueled fears of a wave of sustained inflation ... Shortages are hitting everything from bulldozers to bourbon ... New challenges continue to arise, including hurricane disruptions to U.S. oil refineries which is again threatening supplies of plastics and other basic materials.

Executives warn customers to brace for continued shortages and price hikes in 2022

Companies are preparing for historic supply chain snags to continue into 2022. The president of UPS, Scott Price, said on Sunday ... "The logistics industry does not see 2022 as having any less disruption in supply chains than in 2021," ... several companies have already boosted consumer prices due to elevated shipping costs ... Food prices in the US have been on the rise for six straight months. In June, US consumer prices hit their largest annual increase since 2008, with oil and food prices leading the categories with the largest price hikes.

I've had some recent personal experiences with supply chain problems and what they're doing.  Two examples:

• I took a vehicle into the service station yesterday to check out a diagnostic code.  While he was doing that, the mechanic told me they're solidly booked all week long with engine and transmission rebuilds on farm and work pickup trucks.  Apparently farmers, ranchers and small businesses can't find new or lightly used vehicles to replace older, worn-out ones, thanks to supply chain difficulties;  so they're opting for rebuilds costing $8K-$12K instead.  Unfortunately, that's creating increased demand for spare parts for the rebuilds - so now the parts are becoming hard to find, and replacements for them aren't in the pipeline until the factories can produce them, which won't happen until they can get their input materials from their suppliers.  He reckons the rebuild business could be a huge moneymaker right now, if only parts were available.  He also said that junkyards were asking fantastically high prices for good-condition parts from wrecked vehicles, and getting them, too, because they can't be found anywhere else.
• I refilled my regular prescriptions last week.  While waiting, the pharmacist and I got to talking.  She says they can't be sure that their daily resupply will come in as ordered, or even at all on some days.  For the first time in a long time, they can't promise to fill or refill prescriptions on demand.  Some patients are having to wait up to two to three weeks.  Two of my own prescriptions had to be filled with pills from two or three different manufacturers, which meant the pharmacist had to warn me that even though the pills looked different, they were, in fact, the same medication.  She warned that things are getting worse, so when I next come in, three months from now, I may find I have to wait "weeks" for refills of everything.  She apologized, but said there was nothing they could do.  They're seriously worried that some patients may suffer life-threatening consequences if they're stuck without critical medication for too long.

Finally, some examples from e-mails I've received in recent weeks about how friends and acquaintances are experiencing supply chain problems.

• "I'm at the Technology and Maintenance Council Show ... How about the largest battery testing company in the USA out of testers and it could be March before they see any more? TPMS sensors for tires, running out. One brake drum company said they will have drums next April IF all goes well. Vendor after Vendor is talking about their woes. My woes still remain too. I've got backordered sales of 2,000 units for one significant part number. I've been out since June. I've got 1,000 of them in the LA harbor and it will be at least 60 days for the three containers to get to my location 20 miles away. It used to be a week to get delivery."
• "She ordered some new furniture from Lazy Boy and was told at the time that delivery would take about 6 weeks.  The latest story is sometime in 2022."
• "Every car dealer in McKinney, Texas (there are a lot of them) is at best 25%-35% of capacity of their lots.   Normally they are jam packed with cars.   There are 'We Buy Cars' signs on many dealers.   I am getting regular solicitations from my dealer to buy our cars.  I had my Ranger in for service at the local Ford dealer on Thursday. Their lot looks like a ghost town.  Used car prices are through the roof."
• "In early April we ordered an 8' patio table and 8 chairs ... It's made of some sort of poly/plastic stuff and is made in Ohio ... Estimated delivery was mid-July. Then early September. I called last week and the new estimated delivery date is "It gets here when it gets here" ... I suspect we'll get to enjoy our new patio furniture when the snow flies."
• "I needed a replacement part for my [name-brand Japanese] pickup. Can't be had for love or money, and until it gets here, truck is parked. I'm renting a [US-made] pickup long-term to cover for it, but it's costing me a lot. Rental truck had a problem last week; agency told me to take it to a local dealer at their cost, because they didn't have enough stock to give me another one. Local dealer tried for three days, finally got the the part it needed (had to ship it overnight from Michigan). Factory can't make more without computer chips. Now that it's in my truck, he doesn't know when or if he'll be able to get more. Everyone else who comes in with a similar problem is probably SOL for weeks or months."

There are many more such e-mails I could quote, but that's more than enough to get the general idea. 

I strongly suggest that you buy essentials now, while they're still available.  This includes commonly needed auto parts (e.g. oil and air filters, spark plugs, brake pads, etc.), consumables for household appliances that may need them (e.g. air conditioning filters, etc.) and so on.  That applies particularly to parts made outside the USA, or made in the USA but with components and materials sourced from outside this country.  Try to stock up with as many as you think you'll need for the next year or so.  The odds are pretty good you won't be able to buy them when you need them, or may have to wait an unacceptably long time to get them.

That applies to common consumer items, too.  Do you have a preferred brand or size in, say, feminine hygiene products?  I've already seen a drastic shortage of some brands and/or types - so much so that I've laid in a supply of my wife's preferred brand, sufficient to last her several months.  She would not be happy to have to use something she doesn't like!  The same goes for preferred brands of deodorant, shampoo, etc.  If you have strong preferences, make sure you get what you want, when and where you can, enough for at least six months, if not a year.  It's worth thinking about things like that before the shortages get worse.

(Yes, some will argue that by buying more than we need right now, we're helping to make the shortages worse.  I don't see it that way.  The shortages are inevitable.  We're just being proactive in dealing with them by anticipating them.)

Peter

(EDITED TO ADD:  I've put up a second, follow-up article about this, incorporating reader comments and other sources.)

Lawdog strikes again!

 

I know many of my readers were big fans of Lawdog's blog (as was/am I, for that matter).  Due to reasons beyond his control, he hasn't been actively blogging for a while, and we aren't sure when that will change.  However, he continues to share stories with an "inner circle" on some more private social media, and he gave me permission to share this one with you.

Old story.

So, today the Chief Deputy drapes an arm across my shoulders and says, "'Dog, I've got a complaint from a local attorney regarding one of our lieutenants."

I squint at him, not really knowing where this is going.

"Apparently this lieutenant asked the attorney if he was aware that the legal Bar wasn't actually a brass pole."

Oh. I look at the Chief over my glasses, "Is this the same attorney with the paralegal who was almost wearing a skin-tight, lemon-yellow belt as a dress in jury trial last week?"

He blinks.

"Whose G-string was tuned to an 'A'?"

"Now, 'Dog ..."

"The only thing keeping her non-OEM sweater puppies from rampaging through the prosecution like a pair of squishy Saint Bernards was one panicking zipper and the grace of multiple gods."

There's a very liquid sneeze behind us. I turn around and the Detective Captain has apparently blown his triple-shot venti mocha through his sinuses. Damned waste.

I look back at my boss, who is firmly massaging the bridge of his nose. "'Dog, seems like maybe she wasn't strictly following the court dress code, but ..."

"She had roses on her knickers."

"'Dog ..."

"Fourteen of them."

"..."

"Number eight was missing a petal."

There's a long sigh. His Migraine Salute gets more brisk, "'Dog, have we had the Diplomacy Discussion lately?"

I think for a moment. "December."

"Pretend we just had it again. Go forth, and sin no more."

I have Lawdog's permission to share a few other stories with you from time to time, so watch this space!  (It's handy living in the same town as he does.  One can apply violence bribery "moral 'suasion" in such matters.)

Peter

The 9/11 conspiracy theorists are at it again

 

I've been angered and sickened to see so many 9/11 conspiracy theorists poking their heads out of the woodwork with last weekend's 20th anniversary of the tragedy.  No matter how many scientific, evidence-based, practical explanations are offered, they still insist on their nonsensical speculation that the World Trade Center towers were brought down by explosives planted by some nefarious insider, or that other buildings were dynamited to hide evidence, or that the Pentagon was not hit by an aircraft, or whatever.

It's all stuff and nonsense, of course.  I've come to use these conspiracy theories as a litmus test for whether someone's trustworthy or not.  If I hear a single word out of them in support of such lies, I know they're not worth my time or attention.  To quote one of the 9/11 rescuers who survived, "they're looney tunes".

In case you ever have to debunk their nonsense (I suggest not arguing with them openly, because they won't listen to even the most scientific of evidence - they prefer not to think), I recommend the outstanding analysis published by Popular Mechanics addressing the conspiracy theories.  It's worth bookmarking it for future reference.  Here's just one example of their thoroughness.

CLAIM: "We have been lied to," announces the website AttackOnAmerica.net. "The first lie was that the load of fuel from the aircraft was the cause of structural failure. No kerosene fire can burn hot enough to melt steel." The posting is entitled "Proof Of Controlled Demolition At The WTC."

FACT: Jet fuel burns at 800 to 1500 degrees Fahrenheit, not hot enough to melt steel (2750 degrees Fahrenheit). However, experts agree that for the towers to collapse, their steel frames didn't need to melt, they just had to lose some of their structural strength—and that required exposure to much less heat. "I have never seen melted steel in a building fire," says retired New York deputy fire chief Vincent Dunn, author of The Collapse Of Burning Buildings: A Guide To Fireground Safety. "But I've seen a lot of twisted, warped, bent and sagging steel. What happens is that the steel tries to expand at both ends, but when it can no longer expand, it sags and the surrounding concrete cracks."

"Steel loses about 50 percent of its strength at 1100 [degrees Fahrenheit]," notes senior engineer Farid Alfawak-hiri of the American Institute of Steel Construction. "And at 1800 [degrees] it is probably at less than 10 percent." NIST also believes that a great deal of the spray-on fireproofing insulation was likely knocked off the steel beams that were in the path of the crashing jets, leaving the metal more vulnerable to the heat.

But jet fuel wasn't the only thing burning, notes Forman Williams, a professor of engineering at the University of California, San Diego, and one of seven structural engineers and fire experts that Popular Mechanics consulted. He says that while the jet fuel was the catalyst for the WTC fires, the resulting inferno was intensified by the combustible material inside the buildings, including rugs, curtains, furniture and paper. NIST reports that pockets of fire hit 1832 degrees Fahrenheit.

"The jet fuel was the ignition source," Williams tells Popular Mechanics. "It burned for maybe 10 minutes, and [the towers] were still standing in 10 minutes. It was the rest of the stuff burning afterward that was responsible for the heat transfer that eventually brought them down."

There's much more at the link.  Very useful and highly recommended reading.  The article contains links to other articles and essays addressing different aspects of the 9/11 tragedy, which are also worth following.

Peter

A fair election tomorrow in California? Dream on...

 

There are more and more signs that "the fix is in" in California.  From a felon being found unconscious with hundreds of recall ballots in his possession, to massive propaganda campaigns from the mainstream media against the opposition recall candidates, it's becoming clear that if Governor Newsom is recalled, it will only be because a truly massive turnout managed to beat the "margin of cheat".

The latest news is that in a Republican stronghold, voters are being told that they've already voted - even when they haven't.

Some San Fernando Valley voters think they are being wrongly prevented from casting a ballot in the upcoming gubernatorial recall election.

At El Camino Real Charter High School in Woodland Hills, some voters say they were told the computers showed them as already having voted, even though they had not.

West Hills resident Estelle Bender, 88, said she was far from the only person who was being told incorrectly that they had already voted.

In addition to friends of hers who experienced the issue and two other women outside the polling place, Bender said that inside, “the man next to me was arguing the same thing.”

Bender said she filled out a provisional ballot and “left really angry.”

Bender added that, to her knowledge, many of those affected by this issue are self-identified Republicans, and she’s suspicious.

“I’d still like to know how I voted,” Bender said.

There's more at the link.

The problem is, if those affected don't shout and scream and make a fuss, and keep on doing so until they get answers, this will go on happening.  Those in power in California know they can get away with it, because nobody will be held accountable.  That's why they keep doing it.  How many of those who aren't trying to vote early will find out on election day - probably too late to complain or fix it - that they've already voted, whether they knew it or not?

Understand, too, that the Democratic Party dare not lose the governorship of California.  Larry Elder, leading in the polls to replace Newsom, has already announced that if a vacancy occurs in the US Senate, he'll appoint a Republican to fill it - which would destroy the Democrats' fragile single-casting-ballot advantage in that body, and derail their legislative agenda.  Whatever happens, they absolutely cannot afford that.  With stakes that high, I expect they'll do anything at all - legal or illegal - to eliminate that risk.

I said some weeks ago:

If, after all that legislative and electoral jiggery-pokery, Gov. Newsom doesn't win the recall election, it can only be because he and the Democratic Party don't want to win it.  Their preparations for cheating are so in-your-face as to be laughable . . . and they don't care that we know it and can see it.

I've seen nothing to make me change that opinion.

I'm still astonished that so many people expect to reverse the stolen November 2020 elections in November 2022.  Don't you believe it.  The electoral fraud and manipulation last November was so vast, so immense, that it swamped an electoral tidal wave for President Trump.  All the mechanisms that worked so well then are still in place;  and, if the so-called "For The People Act" becomes law, they'll become entrenched forever.  The Act is a recipe for ongoing electoral fraud of such magnitude that free and fair elections will be a thing of the past in the USA.  Note, too, that the White House has just extended for another year the "National Emergency to Avoid Foreign Interference in Our Elections" - the same bureaucratic authorization that was used to help steal the last election.  Even if the "For The People Act" does not become law, all the steps are in place on a national level to repeat November 2020's shenanigans all over again.

Given the ongoing and very steady public opinion polls in California showing him trailing badly, if Governor Newsom wins the recall election, I think it'll be the clearest possible sign that the November 2022 elections will be equally fraudulent.  (Frankly, I expect this.  That's why I've been saying for months in these pages, "TINVOWOOT" - There Is No Voting Our Way Out Of This.  I truly hope and pray that I'm wrong.  I guess we'll find out this week.)

A Newsom win will effectively eliminate the ballot box as one of the "Four Boxes of Liberty" concept.  Given that the soap box (free speech) is effectively dead (at least as far as our censorious mainstream news and social media organs are concerned), and the jury box (our legal system) is severely restricted and impaired (thanks to activist District Attorneys and a biased, partisan Justice Department), that leaves only one box available.

I'm hoping and praying it doesn't come to that, because once that box is opened, events will take on a life of their own, and there'll be no turning back.  I've seen that too often in other countries, and learned it the hard way.  Once that box is unsealed - once the Gates of Janus are opened - all the other boxes are closed, and they'll stay that way until, when all the shouting and tumult is done, someone closes the ammo box again.  That very seldom happens without bloodshed.

Peter

Memes that made me laugh 75

 

Harvested over the past week.  Click any image for a larger view.

More next week.

Peter

Sunday morning music

 

It's been a while since we've had some classical music.  Let's remedy that this morning with one of my favorite pieces, Beethoven's 7th Symphony.  Wikipedia says of it:

At its premiere, Beethoven was noted as remarking that it was one of his best works. The second movement, Allegretto, was the most popular movement and had to be encored. The instant popularity of the Allegretto resulted in its frequent performance separate from the complete symphony.

. . .

When Beethoven began composing the 7th symphony, Napoleon was planning his campaign against Russia. After the 3rd Symphony, and possibly the 5th as well, the 7th Symphony seems to be another of Beethoven's musical confrontations with Napoleon, this time in the context of the European wars of liberation from years of Napoleonic domination.

Beethoven's life at this time was marked by a worsening hearing loss, which made "conversation notebooks" necessary from 1819 on, with the help of which Beethoven communicated in writing.

The work was premiered with Beethoven himself conducting in Vienna on 8 December 1813 at a charity concert for soldiers wounded in the Battle of Hanau. In Beethoven's address to the participants, the motives are not openly named: "We are moved by nothing but pure patriotism and the joyful sacrifice of our powers for those who have sacrificed so much for us."

There's more at the link.

This recording is from the 2012 season of the annual BBC Proms, or Promenade Concerts, in Britain.  The West-Eastern Divan Orchestra is conducted by Daniel Barenboim at the Royal Albert Hall in London.

I hope you enjoyed it as much as I did.  If you ever get the opportunity to attend one of the Proms concerts at the Royal Albert Hall, it's quite the experience.  Highly recommended, for the crowd atmosphere (particularly during the fabled Last Night of The Proms) as much as the music.

Peter

Twenty years later...

 

On September 11th, 2001, the world changed.

I woke up in my small rectory in Louisiana that morning, wandered through to the kitchen, clicked on the kettle to make a cup of tea, and switched on the TV - just in time to see the second aircraft strike the World Trade Center.

I watched, dumbfounded, for the rest of that morning as the world changed around me.  I'd come through eighteen years in a war zone, sometimes in uniform, sometimes not, experiencing the reality of terrorism all around me . . . but never of the magnitude that we saw that morning.  It left me with a sick feeling in my stomach that lasted for days.

I was initially proud of the reaction of our government, and its swift moves to take down the base from which the attack was launched.  That rapidly turned to resentment, concern, and ultimately anger as that same government, and successive administrations (on both sides of the political aisle), used 9/11 as an excuse to strip away our civil liberties and constitutional rights and turn the United States into a surveillance society.

Today, as we remember the events of twenty years ago, here are a few trenchant thoughts on the anniversary, in no particular order.

From The Smallest Minority:

Tomorrow will be the 20th anniversary of 9/11/2001. What’s changed? A country that was mostly united is now as divided as it was before the election of Abraham Lincoln.

Bin Laden considered the U.S. a “weak horse.” It was still tough enough to hunt him down and kill him, but that doesn’t mean his analysis wasn’t ultimately correct. Abraham Lincoln warned that no outside force could destroy the nation, the danger was from inside. He was right.

And now you understand why the oath taken by elected and appointed officials and members of the military is to uphold and defend the Constitution – not a person or position – against all enemies foreign or DOMESTIC.

Remember: The winners get to label who the domestic enemy was.

From Divemedic:

If someone had told you 20 years ago, as you watched the towers fall, that our military would flee from Afghanistan, leaving their weapons and Americans civilians behind, and there would be a Muslim woman on television, telling our nation’s teachers to teach children that the 9-11 attackers were not terrorists, and avoid promoting American exceptionalism, would you have believed it?

From Didact:

I remember vividly what I felt walking down the stairs of our house that Tuesday evening (we were watching the madness unfold at about 7pm our time, given our time zone), and thinking that I was watching some sort of strange new movie. Only when my father confirmed that we were watching CNN and the BBC, did I realise that it was absolutely real. Planes had flown straight into the World Trade Centre’s two towers, killing hundreds.

And I watched as thousands more died in fire and horror when the towers collapsed.

That was the end of innocence for many of us. I didn’t realise it at the time, but that was the day that I finally came to understand the reality that the world is, in fact, a very, very dangerous place.

Here we are, twenty years later. During that time, an entire generation was born and came to adulthood. The people born in 2001 are now older than I was, on that horrible day when the world stood still.

We need to ask ourselves if we ever learned anything in the intervening 20 years. The overwhelming preponderance of evidence tells us definitively, NO. We have not.

From OldAFSarge:

How many years of life experience were erased that day? How many years of potential were erased? We will never know. We can only mourn the dead. Not bring them back.

I wish I could forgive those who perpetrated these heinous acts twenty years ago. But it isn't in me, God forgive me, but I cannot forgive this, ever.

I remember, I mourn.

Woe to those who would let such a thing occur ever again. That too will not be forgotten, nor forgiven.

From Mr. B:

I remember that on this day, Sept 11th, 20 years ago today, people who hate the US because of our culture, because of who we are, because of our freedoms, because of our religions….on this day, 20 years ago, nineteen radical individuals, aided and abetted and financed and encouraged along their way by rich people in other countries like Saudi and Oman, executed a years-long plan to kill citizens of the United States and strike terror and fear in our hearts simply because of who we are, because our beliefs are different than theirs ..because they wish to remain primitive and live like their ancestors did in the 7th century….and we don’t……I remember many muslims in other countries dancing in the streets because some other Muslims had struck a blow against the “Great Satan”….celebrating the deaths of my countrymen simply because we were different than them….because we thought differently, had different religious beliefs, because we had different morals than them.

I remember, and still do, that those in our legislature who opposed the President fought him at every turn, and both his party and the opposition party used this tragedy, this attack, the deaths of my fellow citizens in the days and weeks following the attack to increase their power and reduce my and my fellow citizens freedoms in the name of Security. I remember the failures of our watchdogs, the Intelligence community, to protect our country from these individuals who did the attacks and those who supported them, even though the data was there….That they failed utterly to see the threat or do anything about it, and that 3000 or more people died because they simply weren’t bothering to look for threats.

. . .

I remember that we, as a country, forgot that we have people who wish us harm, and that, while we may not wish to fight, to maintain vigilance, people who choose to be our enemies have not forgotten, and see our peacefulness as weakness, not strength. That we must remain ever vigilant, ever watchful, ever ready. That while we may not wish for War, others do. That it takes 2 to make peace, but only one to cause conflict.

I have not forgotten, and I never will.

From Mr. Garabaldi, the immortal story of Rick Rescorla's heroism in saving all those entrusted to his care . . . only to die in the fall of the towers.  Go read it.  It's important.

I remember, a few days after the 9/11 attacks, seeing a music video by the group Live, featuring their song "Overcome" played over footage of Ground Zero after the fall of the Twin Towers.  It was purely secular, which (as a pastor) I found jarring:  after all, to commemorate those who died, surely some mention of life, death and eternity would have been appropriate?  But then I realized . . . America was already a post-Christian society to many of its citizens and residents.  Live's song was a secular anthem, and as such, it fitted the secular horror and outrage at the 9/11 attacks very well.  Those of us with faith would have our own anthems, and still do, but many of our fellow Americans were, indeed, "overcome" by the shock and horror of the event.

In honor of that, here's the music video.

And, for those of us who believe, here's the "Agnus Dei" of Samuel Barber.

May the souls of all the victims who died on 9/11/2001, in the mercy of God, rest in peace.

May we, who remember them, honor them by living in the freedom their killers wanted so desperately to overthrow.

Peter

Are Mr. Biden's demands a Trojan horse, to expose dissenters and compile a "hit list"?

 

I've been giving a lot of thought to Mr. Biden's ultimatum to the American people, delivered yesterday afternoon.  It was clearly unconstitutional, just like his earlier use of the CDC to illegally block evictions of those who have not paid their rent.  The latter was overturned by the Supreme Court, and he - or, rather, those using him as cover, those manipulating him like a stuffed puppet - must surely know that the same is likely to happen to his vaccine "mandates" . . .

SO WHY DO IT?

Why impose mandates that are obviously and prima facie illegal and unconstitutional?

I have a thought.

If I were among those who stole last November's election, who overthrew the legitimately elected President and imposed their own puppet regime, who are now illicitly running the country and trying to remake it in their progressive left-wing image . . .

If I were among them, what would be the best, the easiest way for us to identify every potential opponent of our plans in every single federal government department, including law enforcement and the military?  What would be the simplest way to force our enemies to identify themselves, so that we know who'll have to be dealt with when the time comes to impose our will upon this nation, irrespective of democracy, the constitution, and the will of the people?

It would be to confront them with a simple binary choice that would force them to reveal themselves.  It would be to offer them a choice so stark that accepting it would effectively force them into compliance:  and once one has surrendered to tyranny, every subsequent surrender is easier and easier.  It's the beginning of the slippery slope that leads to serfdom.

On the other hand, rejecting that choice would identify them as our enemies, as clearly as if they'd painted a mark on their foreheads.  We'd be able to purge them from every government department, particularly those with leadership potential.  Not only would this provide lists of many of those we'll need to deal with before we can impose our will;  it'll also ensure that the departments of government are freed from their pernicious influence, so that they're now more reliable instruments of tyranny in our hands.  We can use those departments, including law enforcement and the military, as tools to impose our will on America without having to worry about internal resistance within the organs of government.

If you look at Mr. Biden's pronouncements yesterday from that perspective, they take on a much more sinister, yet much more believable aspect.  They're Trojan horses.  They aren't there to make us healthier:  they're there to smoke out the patriots among us, those who will resist and actively oppose the Biden administration's plans to dominate and control America forever and crush all opposition.  The powers that be want to expose all such people, so that they're easier to deal with, and so that they can be removed from any position(s) where they might interfere.

The more I think about it, the more I believe that's the real reason Mr. Biden made that speech yesterday.  It's another step - and an important one - on the road to tyranny.  If we allow him - and those behind him - to get away with it, we're going to find it that much harder to stop him next time . . . and there will be a next time.

What say you, readers?

Peter

(EDITED TO ADD:  As reader "Winterborn" noted in a comment to this post, The Intrepid Reporter has an interesting variation on the way I'm thinking.  Go read it here.  It's worth your time.  See also Larry Correia's reaction to the situation, and Sarah Hoyt's too.  Aesop at Raconteur Report has the strongest, bluntest response I've seen so far.)