Tuesday, September 10, 2024

Restaurants face economic indigestion?

 

We've known for years that non-essential expenditure is one of the first things consumers cut back on when economic times get tough.  It's been a major factor in the closing of tens of thousands of US restaurants over the past few years, many of which have gone bankrupt.

However, I hadn't realized that in China, things are even more difficult for restaurants.


As more than a million restaurants closed their doors in recent months, diners in China are ordering takeout instead, amid skyrocketing numbers of food delivery riders.

Amid a flagging economy, glitzy shopping malls, noodle shops and eateries have been shutting down across the country, according to local media reports.

More than a million food and beverage outlets, including 30,000 noodle shops, shut down in the first half of this year, close to the total for the whole of last year, catering industry news service Canguanju reported.

The report came as Taiwanese dumpling chain Din Tai Fung ... said it would shutter 14 of its stores in northern China, citing the economic downturn.

Economic commentator Si Ling told RFA Mandarin that Din Tai Fung’s move is representative of the state of luxury or high-end dining in China, and a bellwether of economic buoyancy.

“Din Tai Fung was once very successful in China, off the back of booming economic growth,” Si said. “This shows how China’s middle class is shrinking at a faster and faster rate.”

“This huge consumer group is voting with its feet – there’s no faking that,” he said, in an apparent reference to the Chinese government’s insistence on positive economic news.


There's more at the link.

That's a heck of a statistic.  China has four times the population of the USA, so if it loses a million restaurants in a year, that's equivalent to the US losing a quarter of a million restaurants over the same period.  We're in economic tough times, all right, but not that tough!

It tends to put our problems into perspective.  We complain about our economy, but many other parts of the world have even more reason to complain.  Given the emphasis on globalism rather than nationalism in today's economies, I somehow doubt we'll find a solution to our economic problems unless and until they do, too - or until we abandon globalism and look to fix our own problems in our own way.  Sadly, that's not politically correct under the present system . . . which we hope will improve soon.

Peter


9 comments:

Rick T said...

An interesting note in the article is the comment that high-end restaurants and shops were where corrupt public officials (as if there is any other kind) would go to do their deals. Now that public employees are getting heat and losing pay the parasites who fed off the greed and corruption are shutting down. Same with high-end shopping malls.

Lots of restaurants are closing but more people are ordering takeout, so demand is up if the prices are right.

tsquared said...

A restaurant typically has a 300% to 400% markup. Higher end restaurant's can have a 1000% markup. A shot of whiskey is usually marked up 700%.

June J said...

World economies are hanging by a thread, not just the U.S. One of the major ones is going to fail spectacularly and bring down the entire global house of cards.

June J said...

Item mark up doesn't equal profitability. Food cost makes up about 30-40% of a restaurant's operating expenditures. After all other expenses, taxes, fees, etc restaurants typically make 1-5% profit on their sales.

Anonymous said...

I'm not surprised. I have heard coworkers comment on how high restaurant prices (and sometimes poor service) have driven them to cook at home more.
As far as public officials eating out less, I'm not surprised - Many are keeping a lower profile in China these days.
Personally, I rarely order takeout, but that's just me. I wonder how the costs of takeout compare to eat in there? I feel there usually isn't enough difference to be worth it here in the US.
Jonathan

lynn said...

> China has four times the population of the USA

China is reputedly faking their population numbers. The rumor is that there are 150 million less women than quoted. The "one child per family" was wildly successful. This makes the Chinese population 60% men and 40% women. That is an incredible imbalance.

Zaphod said...

Din Tai Fung was a sensation when it went into mega expansion mode. One of those restaurants people would queue around the block to get into when a branch opened in a new city. 15+ years down the road it's tired and passé. Nobody really excited about their Xiaolongbao anymore. I'd probably visit the original restaurant if I happened to be in Taipei, but I've got better things to do than schlep to one of the four branches in Hong Kong.

Just had a cursory look and DTF has 10 branches in Jakarta alone. Should you happen to get tired of the N-word, you can jump ship off the Narcissus in Surabaya and stuff yourself there as well. Been to at least two branches in Bangkok come to think of it and felt that they were OK but a bit off their game. Remember their specialty is various types of dumplings... You can get dumplings made by grandma in her street stall on any street in East and South-East Asia and grandma has been doing it longer than any chain restaurant 'chef'.

Wouldn't call DTF high end... Won't compare it to any US chains as that would be kicking a business when it's down :)

Anyway I reckon has over-expanded and gone stale.

Additionally in China everything is online purchase and delivery by human or some automated method... that has to have cut into sit down restaurant sales.

That being said, Chinese economy isn't in massive boom mode right now for sure. Things have been better. Still if you think RFA or VOA or Epoch Times or rest of that ilk are telling the whole truth and nothing but the truth, well I'v got time shares in Zhongnanhai for sale on very good terms.

Zaphod said...

Haidilao would be a better bellwether if you're looking for a PRC eating out indicator. Huge mass-market hotpot chain which makes Din Tai Fung look like a minnow by comparison. Also rather more resistant to replacement by delivery options (hot pot is much more a sit down restaurant cuisine and not the most convenient thing to transport or cook yourself at home).

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Haidilao

Can play around with stock price charts here. YTD looks OK. Overall I'd say price is holding after a post-covid spike of irrational enthusiasm and subsequent profit taking.

Clearly no consumer gold rush right now, but also not gloom and doom. Haidilao is very much in an ordinary folks market segment.

Zaphod said...

Oops. Forgot to include the SEHK link:

https://www.hkex.com.hk/Market-Data/Securities-Prices/Equities/Equities-Quote?sym=6862&sc_lang=en