Further thoughts on the Biden candidacy

 

Yesterday I said:

I can only presume that the Democratic Party, knowing his health to be so poor as to preclude re-election, has been frantically looking for any way to remove President Biden from the election ticket, and possibly from his current office as well ... Biden's handlers almost literally threw him to the political wolves last night.

After reading many more comments about Thursday's debate, from both sides of the political aisle, I'm even more sure I was right.  I can't see any reason for the Democratic Party to allow a semi-senile President Biden to debate a former President Trump unless it was to provide a clear demonstration of the former's disastrous state of mental health.  Having exhausted most of their other options to replace him with a better candidate for November's election, they're now effectively providing the ammunition for his enemies - aided and abetted behind the scenes by Obama loyalists, who have in effect been running the Biden administration since its beginning - to remove him for them.

The trouble is, too many people seem to have forgotten one critical point.  President Biden has already won the Democratic Party's nomination to be its Presidential candidate in 2024.  That can't simply be ignored.  If he refuses to go, his party has almost no way left - in the time available - to legally replace him on the ballot with someone else.  If President Biden, angered and frustrated at the way he's being treated by his party, turns on them and rejects their demand that he resign, there's not much they can legally do about it in terms of internal party politics.

That leaves the available options as the 25th Amendment to the Constitution, and/or some other major health crisis.  Congress can order the President's removal under the 25th Amendment:  or, alternatively, if President Biden falls seriously ill or is injured by whatever cause, his Vice-President may be able to take over his office until (if?) he recovers.  That, in turn, might provide at least some legal justification to replace him as the candidate in November.

However, the latter case raises yet another issue.  I can't see Kamala Harris willingly resigning the Vice-Presidency;  and if she doesn't, she automatically becomes President if anything happens to her current boss.  That would, in turn, give her a relatively strong case to go into the November election as the incumbent, with all the advantages that provides to a candidate.  Sure, she's even more unpopular on a national basis than are most potential candidates to replace President Biden;  but she's got the inside track, and in the absence of a suitably tempting "carrot" to give it up, she probably won't be afraid to use it.

That brings up another factor favoring Kamala Harris.  We've never had a woman President.  If she succeeds to President Biden's office, she can claim to have "shattered the glass ceiling" keeping women out of the top spot (much as Hillary Clinton tried to claim during the 2016 election).  That might galvanize parts of the Democratic Party base who are currently wavering in their loyalty to the political establishment.  Yes, her personal unpopularity would still be a factor in the election, but (IMHO) less so in the presence of that reality.  She can argue that much of the former is due to men wanting to keep women down.  There might even be an element of truth in that perspective, given the sheer nastiness displayed by some of our politicians.

I have no idea what will happen.  I guess most of us don't.  However, behind the scenes, the unseen powers manipulating both political parties are making deals, calling the shots, and getting ready to impose their preferred solution on the rest of us.  I won't be surprised to see at least some of the following measures over the next month or two, not necessarily in this order.

• Biden digs in his heels and resists calls to resign.
• Congress invokes the 25th Amendment to force him out of office.  If confronted with a fait accompli, will Biden resign rather than be removed?  Is he still capable of making such a decision?  There's a distinct chance that things could turn nasty, and very publicly at that.
• While that's going on, frantic negotiations take place behind the scenes to select a more electable candidate for November.
• Kamala Harris might be allowed to take over the Presidency on a short-term basis (thereby "ensuring her place in history" by allowing her to claim that she "broke the glass ceiling" for all who follow her), but on the understanding she will not be the Democratic Party candidate for the position in November.  She'll demand, and almost certainly receive, a substantial quid pro quo for her cooperation.  Perhaps, if Gavin Newsom becomes the presidential candidate, she could take his place as Governor of California for a term?  I'm sure she'd also become considerably wealthier if she cooperated.  If she doesn't cooperate?  Well . . . accidents happen . . .
• While all this is going on, I'm sure there will be immense resources devoted to finding the most electable Democratic Party candidate for November 2024.  Who that might be remains to be seen.  I daresay that, of the names currently in (public) play, Gavin Newsom and Michelle Obama are the front-runners;  but either will have to give up a lot of the power they've currently amassed among their existing supporters if they're to run.  Will they be prepared to do so?  And will enough Americans, already sickened and frustrated by the political corruption in both of their backgrounds, be willing to put aside their distaste and vote for them?
• Finally, can the security, fairness and honesty of the November 2024 election be sustained?  Many have their doubts.  Others insist that there's no evidence of any attempt to fiddle with the results.  I guess we'll have to wait and see.

Will any of those things happen, or not?  In what sequence?  What else might happen?  Let's hear your forecasts in Comments.

Peter