The fertility rate in any developed nation needs to be 2.1 (meaning that every woman has to produce at least two children - more in a less developed nation with poorer medical and support infrastructure), in order to keep population size stable. For the past few decades, fertility rates have been tumbling in all developed countries, without exception. For some, such as South Korea, they're so low (currently 0.9) as to ensure effective depopulation within a century, unless something is done to reverse the situation. (The US is currently at 1.7.) Migration is supposed to help bolster the fertility rate by bringing in more people, but it seldom works that way.
Greece is home to one of the lowest fertility rates in Europe: At 1.3, it is half that recorded in 1950 and well below the 2.1 required for population replacement.
Last year, the country recorded just over 71,400 births, the lowest number since records began almost a century ago, and down around 6% on 2022. Greece now has around one birth for every two deaths, and the share of the population aged over 65 is nearly twice that aged 0 to 14.
That prompted Prime Minister Kyriakos Mitsotakis to warn of an “existential” threat to Greek society, with the country more disposed than most to wider demographic shifts afflicting developed nations.
“The truth is that today our people are among the most elderly in Europe,” Mitsotakis said last year, speaking at a Greek demographic conference.
It’s an issue affecting some pockets of the Greek mainland and its vast archipelago more than others.
“This population decline is not manifested equally throughout the country,” Mitsotakis continued. “It has peaks in specific areas and this means that national strategies are not sufficient and local provisions are also needed, with the overall demographic collapse literally becoming an existential bet for our future.”
That decline is most visible through the emergence of scores of ghost towns and villages — locations with none or virtually nil inhabitants, deserted as local populations leave or die out. It can be difficult to quantify the exact number of such locations, given their often remote nature, but recent estimates put the figure of entirely abandoned towns and villages close to 200.
. . .
Greece’s recent demographic decline can be largely traced back to the country’s sovereign debt crisis of 2009. Resultant bailout programs sparked years of austerity and financial woe for the country, with the economy contracting by as much as a quarter over the ensuing decade.
Young people were among the hardest hit by the downturn, with youth unemployment peaking at 59.5% in the first quarter of 2013 — more than twice the national high of around 27%.
As a result, many were unable to forge new lives outside of their family homes. Of those who did, many did so overseas, with an estimated more than 400,000 people — or 9% of the workforce — emigrating over the period. Much of the remainder relocated to Greece’s big cities, in search of better work and education.
Today, more than half (53.5%) of the Greek population lives in the capital, Athens, and the surrounding Attiki region, as well as the country’s second-largest city, Thessaloniki. Meanwhile, all other regions, including Greece’s prized islands, have recorded population decline over the past several years.
There's more at the link.
We're seeing something similar in parts of the USA, too. Many towns have shuttered their schools, or drastically reduced them in size, because not enough children are being born to make full use of them. Older children who leave to study at college or university aren't coming back to small towns, but are staying in larger cities where there are more jobs and amenities to be found. In the area of North Texas where I live, that's alleviated because smaller towns often serve as dormitory communities for larger metropolitan areas, but even so, there are probably two towns in decline for every one that's holding its own, population-wise.
I'm interested to find out whether this phenomenon is affecting the USA as a whole. Dear readers, would you please let us know in Comments whether the small towns near you are thriving, holding position, or declining? That can apply to economics, population, or other issues. By putting your inputs together, we can get a better picture.
Thanks!
Peter
12 comments:
People are reading the headlines.
Bringing kids into the world as it is, especially with the types of women we have to do it with, isn't viable anymore.
Keep in mind Peter is that many people leave small towns do to lack of opportunity. Same thing happens when people leave repressive states in the North and relocate usually to the South. Birth rate is an issue but keeping young folks down on the farm plays a much bigger role.
The small towns in Cochise County AZ (Douglas, Bisbee, Willcox) are all down in population 2010 t0 2020. Benson and Sierra Vista being exceptions which I attribute to retirees moving in. The total for the county is also down so the rural areas are also loosing population.
You go through Iowa and any town with less that 1500 people does not have a school. Only thing you will find in smaller towns could be a church or bar. Usually two bars to one church. And those are slowly drying up as well. Could see it start in the 60 when not enough jobs sent the kids to the nearest larger town.
Here in the Upper Peninsula of Michigan the population is growing rapidly. People moving in from the cities south of here a lot of what is retirement and work from home. A friend at the local title company told me that this year they have done real estate closings for buyers from 32 other states. I am constantly having phone calls, letters, and people knocking on the door wanting me to sell them a piece of my farm which I won't do. And most of us aren't happy about it. ---ken
The issue that concerns me is that when the fertility rate drops too low, that part of the geography that depopulates doesn't stay depopulated for very long. Outsiders, intruders, illegal immigrants, and invaders start to flood in and fill the void being left. The social structure then decays, and those left of the original population find themselves in foreign hostile territory in their own country.
My area is going through some aggressive expansion thanks to invading Californians, but also the average size of the families in my neighborhood is 3-6 children, with some having even more. We're also a majority LDS population. The local school just added on. When I was going to school there, they had three trailers for extracurriculars; they took them away for a while, but they're back up to one trailer, and they keep building more secondary schools as well as adding on to existing ones.
I lived and worked most of my life, in and around Detroit Mi. so my definition of small town may be skewed. I currently live in Midland Mi. pop. 42k, unemployment 3.3%, median income about 99k. We have jobs here, it seems like every other person I meet works for dow, mid michigan medical or schools. This is home of Northwood University.
Our town suffered lost due to F4 tornado. We had a county population of over 39k but it's now at 36K. So the people have left the county to go lives elsewhere. And not coming back.
Cities and towns just can't seem to focus on child care. You have 2 under 5 and it's $800 at least if not more. But employers are also a factor. You have to drop the kids off at 0 dark hundred to be able to clock in my 8. Then if your late picking up your child by even 5 minutes it's $25 fine. We have 2 empty schools in this town. Why can't the city rent them for $1. per month. It would bring down the cost certainly for the owner. This has a lot of moving parts but if the city worked with care givers this would be a lot more of an incentive to have maybe 3 children. Greece could offer something based on this concept so it would stop being the biggest expense item in a couples budget.
Southern Alberta: Back 15 years ago there was a huge push to 'consolidate' schools, the district refused to release funds for maintenance. After 5 years all the local schools were in bad shape and the district decided to build a mega school in a field for 4 towns to share vs seperate schools. Kids all have to be bused and the routes meander around the countryside making transport costs way higher, plus its in a swampy area and floods every couple years.
Additionally the county has discouraged new business in the rural communities, instead setting up 'innovation centers' aka a field beside the largest town were all new industrial businesses have to be located.
Overall the towns have seen a drop because of this, ours had been stable for 50 years and then has seen a 10% drop since 2022.
Exile1981
The town I live in was sitting at around 7,000 when I moved there in '76. Thanks to illegal immigration and the shuffling of welfare bums into the place, it's at 92,000 now. Thanks, Obama. Thanks, Newsom/Brown. Thanks, Joe...
The collapse of smaller rural towns has been going on for a long time. Back in the mid 80s when I lived in Abilene, Texas, we were out on a Sunday with some older friends from church. We came back through an abandoned town whose basketball team had been Texas state champions in the 1920s. The town had been a hub for the local farming community. The walls of the old gymnasium still stood and there were a few abandoned houses remaining. Improving transportation and consolidation of farms in this semi arid area were some of the factors that led to its abandonment.
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