Syria's new submarine fleet...

 

... previously known as the Syrian Navy.  Click the image for a larger view.

As noted on Monday, Israel is destroying every major military facility in Syria that its warplanes can reach.  The BBC reports:

Israel has confirmed it carried out attacks on Syria's naval fleet, as part of its efforts to neutralise military assets in the country after the fall of the Assad regime.

In a statement, the Israel Defense Forces (IDF) said its ships struck the ports at Al-Bayda and Latakia on Monday night, where 15 vessels were docked.

The BBC has verified videos showing blasts at the port of Latakia, with footage appearing to show extensive damage to ships and parts of the port.

The IDF also said its warplanes had conducted more than 350 air strikes on targets across Syria, while moving ground forces into the demilitarised buffer zone between Syria and the occupied Golan Heights.

. . .

In a statement, Israel's Defence Minister Israel Katz said the IDF was aiming to "destroy strategic capabilities that threaten the State of Israel".

He added that the operation to destroy the Syrian fleet had been a "great success".

The IDF said a wide range of targets had been struck - including airfields, military vehicles, anti-aircraft weapons and arms production sites - in the Syrian capital, Damascus, as well as Homs, Tartus and Palmyra.

It also targeted weapon warehouses, ammunition depots and "dozens" of sea-to-sea missiles.

It added that it had done so to prevent them "from falling into the hands of extremists".

There's more at the link.

I guess that makes sense from Israel's point of view, but it's going to make it much harder for a new central government to be formed in Syria - it won't have access to the military equipment and bases it needs to end internal rivalry and conflict.

There are dozens, if not scores, of different groups in Syria, each proclaiming its religious purity and its cause's righteousness.  At the moment, in the first flush of victory, they're celebrating President Assad's ouster:  but before long they're going to start jockeying for position, trying to stake their claim to at least some of the spoils of victory, and hoping that their leaders will be able to form part of the new government (and therefore distribute largesse to their supporters).  It's going to be chaotic, shambolic, and a bloody (literally) mess.

Syria is one of those countries (like Russia) that isn't accustomed to democracy, and hasn't been for generations.  It's used to a strong-man leader who dictates policy and enforces it.  All those hoping for democracy, a freely and fairly elected government, and impartiality, are doomed to disappointment (to put it mildly).  Hopefully a better Syria will emerge from this mess . . . but it'll take years to do so, and won't be born peacefully or bloodlessly.

Also, watch the major ethnic groups in Syria.  The Kurds are virulently opposed to Turkey, and antagonistic towards Iraq, and hostile towards the fundamentalist Shi'ite government in Iran.  They'd like nothing better than to form a united Kurdistan with pieces of each of those nations - but none of the others want to surrender territory (or the oil beneath it) to them.  I think we may see genocidal warfare between Turkey and the Kurds in the not too distant future.  The Turks have demonstrated that genocide is a perfectly acceptable ethnic solution to them (think of the Armenian massacres, just for a start).  I rather suspect they're gearing up to kick six bells out of the Kurds.

(EDITED TO ADD:  Am I a prophet, or what?)

(The USA, of course, regards Kurds as at least fellow travelers, if not allies, but will we intervene to protect them?  Your guess is as good as mine.)

Syria - a tangled web where everyone, without exception, practices to deceive.

Peter