The housing market as a bellwether for retirement

 

It looks like the double whammy of inflation on house prices, plus much higher mortgage rates, is hitting the property market very hard.

There’s a total of $698 billion worth of homes for sale in the U.S., up 20.3% from a year ago and the highest dollar amount ever.

. . .

April 2025 is the most recent month for which data is available. For the purposes of this report, the term “value” is interchangeable with “list price”; i.e., when we refer to “total home value,” we mean the sum of all list prices. We define “stale inventory” as home listings that spend at least 60 days on the market and are actively listed for sale on the final day of the relevant month. Please see the end of this report for more on methodology. 

The total value of U.S. home listings is at an all-time high because of the combination of growing inventory, slowing demand, and increasing home-sale prices:

• Housing supply is at a 5-year high. There are many more sellers than buyers in the market. The total number of homes on the market nationwide rose 16.7% year over year in April to its highest level in 5 years, with the mortgage-rate lock-in effect easing and homeowners trying to cash out due to economic uncertainty. New listings increased 8.6% to a 3-year high.
• Homes are sitting on the market longer. The typical home that sold in April took 40 days to go under contract, 5 days longer than a year earlier. There’s also a growing share of inventory that has been sitting on the market for longer than two months; see the next section of this report for more details.
• Homebuying demand is falling. Home sales are declining, and Redfin agents in much of the country report that would-be buyers are backing off due to record-high monthly housing costs and widespread economic instability.
• Home prices are rising. The median U.S. home-sale price rose 1.4% year over year in April. Note that the total value of inventory is up by much more, 20.3% year over year, which signals that in recent years, the rising number of listings is a bigger factor in the total value of inventory than rising prices. 

Another Redfin analysis found that there are nearly 500,000 more home sellers than buyers in today’s housing market. The fact that so many homes are being listed without buyers out there to purchase them, along with continually rising prices, explains why there are 12 figures worth of unsold inventory sitting on the market.

“A huge pop of listings hit the market at the start of spring, and there weren’t enough buyers to go around,” said Matt Purdy, a Redfin Premier agent in Denver. “House hunters are only buying if they absolutely have to, and even serious buyers are backing out of contracts more than they used to.”

There's more at the link.

What few people are talking about in all those statistics is their impact on those about to retire.  A very large proportion of Americans are relatively cash-poor, but asset-rich:  and their biggest asset is their homes.  They've bought them over decades, and always figured to downsize to a smaller home when they retired and use the extra money they got from selling their bigger home to provide a retirement nest-egg.  However, I'm hearing from more and more of my readers that they aren't able to get the prices they expected for their pre-retirement houses.  Buyers either aren't willing or (more likely, given mortgage rates today) aren't able to afford those prices.  Sellers are having to wait much longer to sell their otherwise desirable homes, and when they do sell the prices they're getting are usually quite a bit lower than they want.  Even in high-cost housing markets such as California or Washington state, the prices paid for houses are said to have dropped by 20-30% over the past couple of years.  (Readers living in those states, please confirm that in Comments, if possible.)

People selling in those states, then moving to lower-cost states for housing (e.g. California to Texas, something we've seen a lot locally) are still able to buy something nice, and have money left over.  However, that's getting more difficult.  I'd say housing prices have about doubled here over the past 4 years or so, due precisely to the influx of out-of-staters willing to pay higher prices than locals to get what they want.  Californians who know what their friends paid here a few years ago are disillusioned that they can't get the same favorable prices today.  Thanks to getting less for their old houses, and paying more for their new homes, their retirement nest-eggs are considerably reduced from what they expected;  sometimes well into six figures less than they anticipated.

What does this mean for those planning to retire, and use the money from their McMansions or expensive houses to fund their retirement?  I suspect it means that a lot of them are going to be less well-off, perhaps a lot less comfortable, than would otherwise have been the case.  At the same time, high mortgage rates are preventing new homeowners from entering the market, except for low-cost housing that often needs a lot of owner "sweat equity" to make it livable.

I mentioned in these pages, some years ago, a local family who were building their home bit by bit.  A young couple got married and bought a piece of land on a local farm-to-market road nearby.  They began by living in a small travel trailer (only about 20-22 feet).  Over the course of a year or so, they built a shed on a concrete slab, insulated it, installed electricity and water, and moved into it for their utility space (keeping the trailer as their bedroom).  A carport followed, plus an extension to add another room for their first child.  Today they have a couple of added rooms, plus the carport, a backyard shed, and two kids.  They aren't in debt, except for the land, and they've paid for all their housing improvements as they built them.  They have my admiration for the adult, mature way they've approached the problem.

I wish there were more people willing to follow their example, but such owner/builders aren't common in today's market.  All the estate agents to whom I speak (and there are a number around here whom I tap regularly for information about the market) tell me that people want a "starter home" with everything already laid on, including several elements that are anything but basic.  They've grown up with everything they wanted, and can't (or won't) even think about starting their new family life with less, making do while they put money away to improve their property later.  Builders here won't build real "starter homes" because they know they'll have major difficulties selling them later, for precisely that reason (and banks are reluctant to grant mortgages on them).  It baffles me.  Right now, there are three small (700-800 square feet) 2-bedroom, 1-bathroom homes available in my town for $79,000 apiece:  very basic interior fixtures and fittings, functional (i.e. not smart) floors, but livable-in and perfectly good homes for a young couple willing to work at further improving them.  Astonishingly, most first-time buyers won't even look at them!  They want more, even if they can't afford it!

I look at the property market, and at those banking on it (literally) to retire in the next few years, and I worry.

Peter