Another perspective on the job market

 

Mike Rowe, who's spent much of his life trying to revive interest in the skilled trades and related jobs, spoke with Ford's CEO the other day.  In the light of our discussion about jobs yesterday, I've taken the liberty of reproducing most of his interview here.

I just had a great conversation with Jim Farley, the CEO of Ford Motor Company, which will air Sunday night at 10pm on One Nation. (That’s Kilmeade’s show on Fox.) Jim told me that as of yesterday morning, Ford Service Departments around the country had 6,000 empty bays. Not because people’s cars and trucks didn’t need fixing, but because the shortage of technicians has become that profound.

Ford isn’t alone. Every single automotive company in America is struggling to hire technicians, and the problem – (in spite of what you’ll likely read in the comments,) has nothing to do with the pay, the benefits, or the working conditions. These jobs offer a clear path to a six-figure career, with little to no college debt. In part, the problem is mathematical – this year, 37,000 new techs were hired across the country. Unfortunately, 76,000 retired. That’s a 2:1 ration, which is actually pretty good, compared to the 5:2 ratio in most of the construction trades. But along with a lack of warm bodies, there’s a lack of interest in the work itself. A will gap, in other words, combined with a skill gap. Happily, I think that’s about to change. Unfortunately, at the expense of a colossal upheaval.

I know I’m a broken record on this, but I think our workforce is about to undergo a truly seismic change. Amazon is eliminating 14,000 corporate roles, citing both economic concerns and the impact of artificial intelligence on how the company operates. Some say the actual number will be closer to 30,000. UPS is cutting 34,000 operations roles, driven by automation. Target, Intel, Paramount, American Airlines, Starbucks…every week, another big corporation lays off thousands of people whose particular skill sets are no longer relevant. And yet, not a week goes by when some industry leader like Jim Farley doesn’t tell me about the extraordinary, unprecedented difficulty of getting skilled workers into the pipeline, and onto the jobsite.

I’ve never seen it like this. I’ve spent seventeen years trying to reinvigorate the skilled trades, by making a more persuasive case for the opportunities at hand. Typically, I’ve focused my efforts on young men and women starting their careers by offering scholarships to trade schools, and this year, I’ll redouble my efforts in that regard. But as of today, I’ll also be thinking about the hundreds of thousands of white-collar workers who are either going to retire prematurely, or hit the reset button, and learn a skill that’s in demand. Because many of those people simply don’t understand the other side of the workforce, and the myriad opportunities that exist today.

Last month, for instance, in Plano, Texas, I toured a Data Center. It was overwhelming, and in some ways, a little unsettling. But I met with a few electricians while I was there, who told me they’d all been poached from different companies at least three times in the last two years. These guys were all under 30, and all making well over $200K a year. They constantly get offers from the competition for ever-increasing salaries, because the need for electricians is acute, and their jobs are not threatened by robots or AI. (Not yet, anyway. And probably not in our lifetimes.) The same is true of welders, HVAC techs, plumbers, and so forth.

Apologies, if I sound glib. I can only imagine how scary it is for a middle-manager in a white-collar job, or a paralegal, or a coder, or a stock broker, or a graphic artist, to be told it’s time to “hit the reset button.” I know how absurd it might sound to a person in that position to be told that the ship building industry has 200,000 openings, or the energy industry has 300,000 openings, or the construction industry has 250,000 openings, or that Ford has 6,000 empty bays as of this morning.

But that’s where we are. Your jobs are not being eliminated; your industries are being eliminated. That doesn’t mean your only option is to learn a skilled trade. But the option is there, nevertheless.

I admire Mike Rowe for his tireless efforts to improve the image of skilled trades in the eyes of the average American, and highlight how critically important they are to our economy as a whole.  If I were starting over, I'd look very hard at a trade instead of the usual university-to-white-collar route that I followed.  I think I'd have a lot more fun, and I'd probably make more money, too.

Trouble is, so many First World economies have de-emphasized skilled trades as a career path that it's hard to find good training and education in the field.  In South Africa, we had so-called "technikons" as a parallel education path to universities.  One could study for a "technical degree" as easily as an "academic degree", and go all the way to a doctorate in many fields (somewhat similar to the German system of technical education, culminating in the "Dr. Ing." qualification).  Unfortunately, as part of the reorganization of South African institutions that followed the advent of democracy in 1994, the technical universities were folded into the academic system, so that today one can no longer choose which "stream" to follow.  I thought at the time that was a mistake, and I've seen nothing to make me change my mind.

Mike Rowe is doing an outstanding jobs with his Foundation to encourage and sponsor technical training.  More power to him!

Peter