We're no longer preparing for an emergency. The emergency is HERE.

 

I've long since lost count of the warnings I've given, and quoted from others, about the need to prepare for hard times, build up domestic supplies of essentials, and generally fortify our lifestyles to withstand hard times.

I'm not going to issue any more warnings, because THE HARD TIMES ARE NOW HERE.  There's no getting away from them.  The combination of COVID-19 and the lame-brained official responses to it, the war in Ukraine, and other crises have tipped us over the edge.  Personally, I think the fall will be a long one with a hard landing.

The supply chain crunch, about which we've written often, is going to be taking center stage for a few years, because it's going to be the root cause of much of the disruption, not just in our personal situations, but in the economic life of every country in the world.  Freightwaves reports:

We are witnessing the remaking of the world order in front of our eyes — and this will impact global supply chains in unforeseen ways.

We are about to experience the most dramatic and unpredictable supply chain map we’ve experienced since World War II.

If the Russia-Ukraine conflict’s international ramifications keep spreading, we face a real possibility of a bifurcating global economy, in which geopolitical alliances, energy and food flows, currency systems, and trade lanes could split.

During the first Cold War, the world was anything but flat. There were two worlds — the East and the West. That world is being recreated as we speak, and with it, Western companies will start to shift sourcing away from the East and more toward Western and neutral states. North American economic integration will become a new priority. Surface transportation across the Eurasian continent will become more complex, and possibly contested.

Entire supply chains will be rewritten, with new sources and partners — all in the interest of corporate and national security. This will create massive volatility and unpredictability.

Companies will prioritize vendors that can provide consistent and dependable supplies, likely paying a premium. In the end, those costs will be passed on to consumers in the form of higher prices.

While prices will become an important consideration for consumers, brands that offer a consistently and predictably available set of choices will enjoy pricing power. 

The future market winners will be the corporations that make the investments in supply chain infrastructure and reliable, Western-friendly production locations.

There's more at the link.

Commander Zero considers how that reality is likely to play out for us.

Let’s look at things objectively. Inflation is among us, whittling away your saved money. Agreed? And fuel prices, which were already moving north, are going to definitely be going up now that World War Three is finally on deck. So..we can agree that fuel prices aren’t likely to come down anytime soon. Agreed? And we know that businesses do not stay in business by operating at a loss. Increases in costs (esp. due to that increased fuel costs) and shortages of material/manpower mean that consumer prices have to go…up.

So what you’ve got here, m’friend, is a virtual certainty that literally everything you buy is going to not go down in price, will likely not stay at its current price, and is pretty much guaranteed to increase in price. Assuming its even available. And not rationed.

I recommend that you cut the fat out of your budget, skip buying the jet ski, big TV, or skip the vacation, and funnel that money into food, ammo, fuel, clothes, diapers, or whatever else you buy often and want to avoid paying more for. Or that you don’t want to risk availability issues.

I’m not saying that because I think T-62’s and Russian paratroops are gonna be landing on our shores. I’m saying it because there’s at least a a half-dozen catalysts (war, inflation, pandemic, etc.) on the loose that by themselves would be cause for heightened awareness and thoughtfulness. But theres more than one... and their effect is synergistic.

If you’ve got a family or partner/spouse who thinks you’ve always been ‘a little out there’ with ‘all that survivalist nonsense’ you’re gonna have a rough time of it. You’re gonna have to decide if incurring the wrath of those close to you is worth giving them the margin of safety that comes from sacrificing the trip to Hawaii and buying canned goods instead. I don’t envy you. But sometimes you’ve got to get all 1950’s and put your foot down and say “I’m doing this because I believe it’s the right thing to do for us, to keep us safe, to keep us secure, and I make no apologies for it.”

. . .

In all likelihood at this time next year things will look a lot like they do now…we’ll still go to work, we’ll still have hot water and electricity, we’ll still go to CostCo on the weekends. I’d put it at the high 90% range. But that doesn’t mean there aren’t going to be hiccups between now and then. Do the things necessary to smooth out any bumps in the road that may appear.

Again, more at the link.

Phil, writing at Bustednuckles, is also very worried about the way things are going.  I wish I could disagree with him - but I can't.  (Read his comments in the light of our discussion earlier this morning, about the possibility that all our current crises are engineered rather than random.  I think he's seeing, or suspecting, the same thing I am.)

One of the issues that I have trying to communicate my concerns to The Wifely Unit is that she doesn’t ever look down the road. She pretty much lives in a week to week mode.

I try to look at things in a year to year mode at the very least.

. . .

What has me worried at the moment is the long term consequences of this war in Ukraine regarding prices and availability of quite a few commodities.

Between Russia and Ukraine, they produce ONE QUARTER of the entire World Supply of Wheat.

Corn is another biggie.

Not to mention scads of other things that are already in limited supply.

Ask any European about natural gas supply issues, they are screwed if Russia decides to shut the valve off.

Right now this morning, oil has already went over $104 a barrel, Wheat futures are skyrocketing, Gold has hit $2,000 an ounce at least once...

. . .

There is Blood in the water.

The food supply issues are only going to get worse.

Farmers are paying up to 4X more for fertilizer, if they can find it, than last year and many are saying they aren’t going to be able to plant Corn this year.

THIS IS A HUGE RED FLAG.

There are no Government food stockpiles anymore.

You are on your own.

Inflation is already causing serious problems as it is causing things like food and gasoline to eat up bigger and bigger portions of incomes.

Now throw in these projected shortages on top of that.

Things are going to get real ugly in the coming months.

All of this is happening by design, I have said repeatedly that the Commie’s favorite weapon is food, it looks like the fiends from the WEF are well aware of the power it represents when you control the food and energy supplies for an entire planet.

Just for giggles add in the Chinky Flu and their Death Jab program and maybe you will start to get an inkling of just how devious and serious these people are about wiping out large sections of the population.

Because we are on our own, I am not just sitting here watching all of this happening while sitting on my thumb and bitching about it.

I very strongly suggest that everyone else take a good look around at what is coming and take appropriate measures.

More at the link.

Finally, here's a perspective from the Philippines, where an expatriate American blogger writing at "Come And Make It" says bluntly that "Current News Trendlines point to WW3".  He's seeing the impact of worldwide economic problems on a Third World society, where they're having a magnified effect on life because people have fewer reserves and less wealth with which to cope with or offset them.  From that perspective, things must look bleak indeed right now.  (Read the last few weeks' posts at "Come And Make It" for a more detailed look at how current events are impacting the Third World.  Multiply that by the several billions of people affected by them, and you'll get some idea of how bad things are worldwide.)

We've already covered the basics of putting aside a reserve of food, an emergency reserve of cash, and so on.  Right now, one has to think about the value of that cash reserve, which is being eaten away by inflation every week.  If you had $10,000 in the bank at the beginning of 2022, I reckon that by the end of this year, it'll buy goods that cost only about $7,000-$8,000 in January 2022.  That's because its buying power will have been eroded by inflation.  The question therefore becomes, what's the best thing to do with that cash?  You absolutely do need an emergency cash reserve - no question about that - but if you have more than the minimum, this might be a good time to put it to work.

Are there durable goods that you need to buy, or can foresee buying in the short to medium term?  I'm thinking of HVAC systems, major appliances (fridge, freezer, washer, dryer, etc.), a motor vehicle, and so on.  If you're likely to need one or more of those things over the next one to three years, it might not be a bad idea to buy them now, while they can still be found relatively easily and inflation hasn't driven their price through the roof.  The same goes for expensive consumables such as tires for your car.  If you know you're likely to need them in the foreseeable future, it might be very worthwhile to buy them now and put them away until needed, because by the time you need them, you may not be able to afford them.

Another thing is to stockpile small reserves of things you need every day, but which might face supply interruptions from time to time.  Consider keeping a tank's worth of gasoline for your vehicles in approved containers, in a safe place - NOT inside your home!  Put aside an extra container of laundry detergent, an extra pack of air filters for your home's HVAC system, and so on.  I don't expect any of them to become unavailable for extended periods, but short-term interruptions in supply are more and more likely.  Such precautions will help you get through those times.

Just a few thoughts.

Peter