Biometrics: anti-terrorist . . . and anti-privacy

It looks as if Afghanistan continues to serve as a laboratory to test methods for fighting terrorism - not to mention combating corruption and ineptitude as well.  Strategy Page reports:

Under pressure from the U.S. the Afghan Army recently completed the distribution of ID cards using biometric data to everyone in the Afghan Army. This use of biometric data in government ID has been available in Afghanistan for over a decade but corrupt politicians understood the impact of such an ID system and until 2015 prevented full implementation. In 2015 a newly elected government allowed these biometric ID efforts to proceed. While a lot less corrupt and more accommodating than the previous Karzai government the current Afghan government is still finding the bureaucracy paralyzed by the often conflicting demands by politicians representing a wide number of tribal, ethnic, religious and personal interests. It’s like herding cats, but cats with automatic weapons and very short tempers. The cats are also clever and adaptive. Unable to block or delay full implementation of the biometric system in the security forces most offenders shed their ghost soldiers before their troops received the cards. As a result only a few thousand ghost soldiers were actually discovered and 80 percent of them were not the result of corruption (there is still incompetence and administrative failures at work) and those that were offenses that could be prosecuted were of officers or individuals too dumb or unlucky when it came to adapting. Meanwhile there is still a lot of theft and bad behavior in the security forces that is the result of the traditional tolerance for corruption or bribes and intimidation by drug gangs.

Despite that continued corruption the United States has built a large and growing library of data on actual and suspected terrorists and supporters as well as the Afghan population in general. This has given the anti-corruption forces (both local and foreign) a powerful tool. This was all the result of some major technical innovations that made it easier to gather and use biometric (fingerprints, iris, facial recognition, DNA) identification. After 2003 the U.S. developed tools that enabled combat troops to use biometrics on the battlefield. The main tool was initially called SEEK (Secure Electronic Enrolment Kit). This is a portable electronic toolkit that collects biometrics from people anywhere and at any time. This included fingerprint scans, eye (iris) scans, and digital photos of suspects and later DNA samples. All this eventually ended up in a master database, which eventually contained data on millions of terrorists, suspected terrorists, their supporters, and other "persons of interest." Troops in the field can carry part of that database with them in their SEEK kits, so that wanted people can quickly be identified and captured. This is what the American commandos did on the 2011 Osama bin Laden raid. While DNA tests are the best form of ID, if you have fingerprints, iris scans, and a photo you are nearly as certain. Even just fingerprints and the face scan/photo is pretty convincing. But often all you have is DNA and that’s where the portable DNA analyzers come in. These began arriving after 2011 but the basic SEEK level biometrics are still the main tool.

In Afghanistan the government used SEEK kits to collect data on millions of Afghans so these people could be issued very secure (hard to fake) ID cards. For the government, this makes it more difficult for criminals, Taliban, and Islamic radicals in general to infiltrate the government or just operate with impunity. The U.S. has long been collecting biometrics from those they arrest or otherwise encounter and want to positively identify. This data makes it easier to figure out who is naughty and who is not. It only takes about two minutes per subject to use SEEK to take the biometric data, so any suspicious characters are quickly added to the master database. After several years of collecting data raiding parties knew to grab any guy who seems to panic at the sight of the biometrics equipment coming out. The terrorists know that biometrics is bad news for them and they fear it. Combat troops now get training on how to use the biometrics gear and everyone now accepts that this stuff is a powerful weapon in the war against terrorists. Adapting this expertise to creating very difficult-to-fake IDs is not a large leap but it's not one that will result in many press releases. But now the corrupt military and government officials have come to fear the biometrics as well. 

There's more at the link.

This same technology is increasingly being used within the USA.  Companies are using biometric data to identify and control their employees, including regulating access to sensitive offices, data, etc.  State drivers licenses are increasingly being 'tagged' with biometric identifiers, and photographs of license-holders are being incorporated into massive facial recognition databases.  There are even suggestions that our vehicles should incorporate biometric recognition technology, to ensure that whoever tries to use them is authorized to do so.  (The fact that such recognition technology might also be interrogated by law enforcement in real time, to find out who's in the vehicle and where they're going, is usually left unsaid - as is the potential for law enforcement to automatically disable the vehicle, and force it to park until they've checked it out.)

It seems that the so-called 'War on Terror' is increasingly a war on personal privacy as well.  I sometimes feel like a dinosaur, in the sense that I still value and insist on my right to privacy.  Sadly, many younger people today seem to feel it's much less important.  Nevertheless, I'll safeguard what shreds of privacy I have left, and resist any further intrusion by 'Big Brother' or anyone else.

Peter

I feel vindicated

I must make sure Miss D., and most of my friends, see this report.

Proving that sometimes working in mess is much more productive than precision and order, researchers at the University of Minnesota found that creative geniuses favour a chaotic workspace.

After testing how well participants came up with new ideas when working in both tidy and disorderly work areas, it revealed that while those in the messy room generated the same number of ideas as their clean-room counterparts, their ideas were considered as far more interesting and creative when evaluated by impartial judges.

Furthermore, the data also found that people with a messy desk are more prone to risk taking while those at cleaner desks tend to follow strict rules and are less likely to try new things.

“Disorderly environments seem to inspire breaking free of tradition, which can produce fresh insights,” researchers said.

There's more at the link.

There!  You see, darling?  I'm not messy - I'm creative!  It's a sign of my genius!  Surely you can . . . wait - why are you picking up that broom?  You wouldn't hit your husband, would you?




Peter

A teaser from my forthcoming novel

Late last year I asked you, dear readers, to select which of two possible fantasy novels I should write.  I put up two sample excerpts;  the first dealing with an older protagonist, Owain, and the second focusing on a much younger man.  By popular vote, you selected the first story as the one you'd most like to read.  (I'll write the second, too, but later, and after further development.)

I'm well on my way to completing the novel, which I hope will be published early in August.  It'll be a stand-alone book, not part of a series.  To whet your appetite, here's another excerpt.  I've asked my friend Cedar Sanderson to design the cover, and I think she's doing a great job.  I'll post a teaser image of it in a few days' time.

          Calathon had reached the sixth name in his roll-call when a hunting horn blared a strident call from the far side of the clearing. Everyone stiffened in shock; but even as they looked around in the half-light, trying to see what had caused someone in the southern group to sound the alarm, horn calls sounded from east and west as well. Dark shapes suddenly materialized overhead, dropping fast towards the grass beyond the trees.
          Calathon dropped his list and grabbed his axe. “Gruefells!”
          “They’re coming from all directions!” the Baron shouted.
          Even before he’d finished speaking, the man-at-arms beside him had slapped a bolt into the track of his arbalest and shouldered it. He aimed at the nearest immense shape, black against the pre-dawn sky as it back-winged before touching down, and squeezed the firing lever. His arbalest twanged loudly, steel prod snapping forward with immense force, and his bolt vanished into the gloom. The beast shrieked in sudden agony, jerking its head back, and its back-winging faltered. It crashed the last few feet to the ground, crunching on the frozen grass, and the two figures on saddles astride its neck were hurled to the ground.
          Diaval automatically, instinctively slotted a bolt into place on his crossbow, and nocked its notched end to his bowstring. He belatedly realized he hadn’t selected one of the poisoned bolts Owain had left for him, but that didn’t matter against a human target. He aimed at the nearest figure picking itself off the grass, no more than twenty feet from him, and triggered his weapon. The bolt flashed low and flat over the grass and slammed into the man’s chest, piercing his mail coat and all the way through his torso at such short range, its bodkin point and half its length jutting out of his spine. With a shout of agony, the Graben raider fell backwards.
          “PROTECT THE ARCHERS!” the Baron bellowed. “Keep the enemy away from them!”
          Diaval was dimly aware of his new-found comrades forming a screen ahead of them, crouching low so as not to obscure their aim. He couldn’t take time to focus on them as he yanked hard on the cocking lever, spanning his weapon, then grabbed one of Owain’s poisoned bolts and slapped it into the track. Two archers near him, armed with compound recurve bows, were firing as fast as they could snatch arrows from their quivers, sending their light, fast missiles at the raiders on the ground as they dropped from their gruefells. They couldn’t penetrate mail surcoats at longer ranges, but one of the figures stumbled, clutching at his unarmored leg. Another shouted in pain and dropped his sword as a shaft suddenly sprouted from his wrist.
          The other raiders charged towards them brandishing swords, spears and maces. Calathon stepped in front of Diaval, expertly dodging a wild blow from a mace as he swung his double-headed battle-axe in a short, economical chopping motion. The arm holding the mace flew away from the raider, who shrieked and clasped the bleeding stump for an instant before Calathon reversed his swing, the blade carving into the man’s neck with a meaty thump. The head lolled to one side, almost severed, the stump of the neck fountaining blood as the attacker collapsed.
          As he fell, the arbalestier beside Diaval fired again, producing a shriek of pain from a gruefell further out in the clearing. Calathon ducked as he heard the twang of the bowstring behind him, then stepped back between the two archers as another gruefell screamed in fury and charged towards them. Shoot at the soft parts, Diaval mentally reminded himself as he snapped the reloaded crossbow to his shoulder. He aimed right into the creature’s mouth as it screamed again, and fired. The bolt streaked across the rapidly closing space between them and disappeared into the gaping saw-edged beak. The gruefell gave a strangled, choking, gargling cry as it reared up, wings beating frantically, head back as if looking straight up at the fading stars. It toppled to one side, heavy body crashing down on top of the first raider Diaval had shot, and lay there, kicking and struggling, its movements already growing feebler.
          The arbalestier frantically tugged at his weapon’s cocking lever. Its weakest point, offsetting its immense power, was that it took several pulls at the geared mechanism, and fifteen to twenty seconds, to re-span the steel prod. Diaval’s crossbow, with its less powerful compound prod, was faster to reload than an arbalest, although it could never equal the power of the latter, or match the rate of fire of a recurve bow. He hauled on the cocking lever again, the bowstring clicking into place over its catch, and moved to his left to put more space between himself and Calathon, so the latter would have room to swing his battle-axe. He reached for another poisoned bolt as the Baron yelled a warning, pointing skyward.

——————————

          Karikan admired the precision with which the four groups of gruefells touched down at the cardinal points of the clearing, just inside the boundary of trees – then gasped in horror as first one, then more of the animals in each group staggered, screamed, and began to fall.  How is this possible? his brain yammered at him. They were ready for us! Who betrayed us? The Council will blame me for this!
          He stared down at the group he’d accompanied to the clearing. Already one of its gruefells had collapsed to the ground, landing hard, throwing its two riders clear. One of them tried to stand, then fell backwards as something slammed into him with vicious force. His companion rushed forward, waving his mace, but was intercepted by – an axeman!
          He yelled at the rider in front of him, “That’s our target! Take us down, straight at him! Tell your gruefell to kill him!”
          “You’re mad! They’ll hit us for sure! They’ve got arbalests in the treeline!”
          “I’m a sorcerer! I’ll take care of the arbalests! Get that man with the axe! That must be Owain!” He watched in horror as the axeman slaughtered the Graben with almost nonchalant ease. He knew the only way he might possibly earn forgiveness for the casualties among the irreplaceable gruefells was to lay the Champion’s head at the Council’s feet, along with all he had stolen.
          The rider sent a mental command to his gruefell, which screamed its anger aloud as it saw another of its kind rush towards the axeman, then rear up and fall. It seemed to pivot on a wingtip as it banked steeply over the center of the clearing, then plummeted towards the action. Karikan began the incantation that would hurl a killing spell at the treeline as soon as he could see a target.

——————————

          Diaval looked up to see a gruefell diving towards them, beak agape, eyes rolling in the fury of battle lust. It seemed to be aiming directly for Calathon. The rearmost of the two riders astride its neck half-stood in his stirrups and pointed at the arbalestier. He seemed to be shouting something, but Diaval couldn’t hear his words over the cries and yells of other fighters. The archer stiffened, dropped his arbalest and collapsed backwards.
          Calathon braced himself, hefting his axe, shouting “For the Baron and the King!” as the gruefell bounced to the ground ten yards ahead of them, then charged, its riders still on its back. Diaval threw his crossbow to his shoulder and aimed at the beast’s raised neck, but it stabbed its head down at Calathon as he fired. His bolt skimmed over the animal’s neck and slammed into the belly of the foremost rider. He croaked in agony as he was shoved back by the impact into his passenger, who also shouted in pain and clutched at his chest. My bolt must have gone right through the front rider and hit the second, Diaval realized instantly. His hands were already re-spanning his crossbow as he stumbled backwards, cursing his slow, unresponsive legs, still sore and aching after yesterday’s exertions.
          Calathon launched a blow at the massive head as it lunged at him, but it was useless. The gruefell ignored the axe as it bounced off its iron-hard beak, then bit down hard on his midriff. The man-at-arms was bisected at the waist. His legs and hips collapsed to the ground in a shower of blood and torn intestines, while his head and torso were lifted off the ground, the battle-axe falling from his lifeless hands. He was dead before he could even cry out.
          With a shout of fury, Brackley charged forward. As the gruefell shook Calathon’s body to and fro, he threw himself upward and lunged with his sword. Its point pierced the creature’s plate-sized right eye, producing a rush of ichor that splattered all over the Baron as he fell back to the ground. The gruefell squalled in agony, dropping Calathon’s torso as its beak opened. It tottered for a moment, off-balance as it reeled, then recovered itself, turning its head towards its riders as they lay collapsed in their saddles at the base of its long, sinuous neck, almost as if it were pleading with them. Getting no response, it spread its wings and launched itself frantically into the air.
          Diaval slid the last of his poisoned bolts into the track of his crossbow. He ran forward, seized the Baron’s arm and hauled him to his feet, thrusting him back, then stepped in front of him as he lifted the weapon. His battle fury was tinged with sorrow for Calathon as he tucked the tiller into his shoulder and aimed almost vertically at the beast as it left the ground. He pulled the lever, and the bolt sped straight and true.
          Fired at point-blank range, the razor-sharp bolt sliced into the thin, wrinkled skin between the gruefell’s wings, where there were no scales to offer protection. Its point speared through the soft cartilage between two massive vertebrae, penetrating deep into the spinal cavity, severing many of the nerves in the spinal cord. The strongly beating wings froze in mid-stroke, even as the bolt’s lethal cargo of poison began to spread through the spinal fluid. The gruefell shrieked again, arched its back, then toppled backwards as its upward momentum gave out and gravity pulled it down.
          Diaval had no time to be afraid as the massive beast collapsed on top of him.

I hope you enjoyed reading this as much as I'm enjoying writing it.  More soon!

Peter

That's some weird bullet behavior!

I received the link to this video clip via an e-mail list to which I belong. Watch it in full-screen mode for best results.

Why would a bullet behave like that when fired into a sheet of ice?  I can't figure out the physics of it.  Can anyone help?

Peter

The Great Horse Manure Crisis of 1894

An interesting article from the Foundation for Economic Education reminds us that crises are often solved by the development of new technology.  As an example, they offer the Great Horse Manure Crisis of 1894.

Nineteenth-century cities depended on thousands of horses for their daily functioning. All transport, whether of goods or people, was drawn by horses. London in 1900 had 11,000 cabs, all horse-powered. There were also several thousand buses, each of which required 12 horses per day, a total of more than 50,000 horses. In addition, there were countless carts, drays, and wains, all working constantly to deliver the goods needed by the rapidly growing population of what was then the largest city in the world. Similar figures could be produced for any great city of the time.

The problem of course was that all these horses produced huge amounts of manure. A horse will on average produce between 15 and 35 pounds of manure per day. Consequently, the streets of nineteenth-century cities were covered by horse manure. This in turn attracted huge numbers of flies, and the dried and ground-up manure was blown everywhere. In New York in 1900, the population of 100,000 horses produced 2.5 million pounds of horse manure per day, which all had to be swept up and disposed of.

In 1898 the first international urban-planning conference convened in New York. It was abandoned after three days, instead of the scheduled ten, because none of the delegates could see any solution to the growing crisis posed by urban horses and their output.

The problem did indeed seem intractable. The larger and richer that cities became, the more horses they needed to function. The more horses, the more manure. Writing in the Times of London in 1894, one writer estimated that in 50 years every street in London would be buried under nine feet of manure. Moreover, all these horses had to be stabled, which used up ever-larger areas of increasingly valuable land. And as the number of horses grew, ever-more land had to be devoted to producing hay to feed them (rather than producing food for people), and this had to be brought into cities and distributed—by horse-drawn vehicles. It seemed that urban civilization was doomed.

Of course, urban civilization was not buried in manure. The great crisis vanished when millions of horses were replaced by motor vehicles.

There's more at the link.  Interesting and worthwhile reading.

Peter

I need Web site design help, please

I'm finally taking steps to set up my own Web site.  This blog will continue, of course;  but I'll probably move hosting to my own Web site, and add more writing-oriented and commercial features as well.  (If you aren't interested in those, the blog will continue as always, so you don't need to worry.)

I'd like to find out what good Web designers are out there, with a specific focus on those who've set up Web sites for authors and writers (including multiple examples of their work).  I've tried the do-it-yourself sites, and they're not bad, but they channel you into 'cookie-cutter' design approaches.  I'd like to discuss better options and ideas, and have someone offer me alternatives, working with me to develop something that will work over the long term.  If we work together, I'll buy the source code from them, whole and entire, along with rights to modify it as necessary in future.  My budget is limited, but I understand that you get what you pay for.  I don't mind paying commercial rates, even if I have to save my money for a while until I can afford them.

If any of my readers know of Web designers who fit that bill, or if any of them are reading this, I'd like to talk to you and discuss options, costs, timelines, etc.  Please send me an e-mail (my address is in my blog profile), or comment on this post providing your contact information.

Thanks!

Peter

Sexist? Sure. Funny? Oh, hell, yes!

Received via e-mail over the weekend:  the difference between German and Italian technology.

Peter

Sunday morning music

How about something new this morning?  Most Americans will probably never have heard of traditional English morris dancing.  It involves men and women dancing in traditional costume, with bells around their ankles, waving handkerchiefs and/or sticks.  It goes way back into pre-medieval times.  (Traditionally, only men danced morris;  women performed other folk dances.  Nowadays, both men and women are found in morris troupes.)

Here are three examples.  First, the classic dance 'Princess Royal', performed by the Abingdon Traditional Morris Dancers.

Next, a modern rendition of the ancient Beltane Fire Dance, performed by the Beltane Border Morris Dancers.

And finally, the group behind the 'Morris On' series of albums from the 1970's and 1980's, performing live at the annual Cropredy music festival, organized by Fairport Convention.  This recording dates from 2004.

Fun stuff, particularly if you're into traditional dancing.

Now, if we can just persuade Lawdog and Old NFO to put bells around their ankles, and caper around the garden (in Texas, in 100°+ high summer heat) with handkerchiefs in one hand and sticks in the other . . . and if we can arrange to record it for posterity (and this blog, of course) . . .




Peter

Here's one for the muddy, manly men

The 2017 Dakar Rally was held in South America in January this year, starting in Paraguay and ending in Argentina.  Here's a short video clip with highlights of the truck racing class.  As you watch, remember that these beasts started out as highway trucks, designed to haul freight.  Humongous rebuilds later, at a cost sometimes measured in millions of dollars, they're capable of speeds exceeding 100 mph across all terrain.

I strongly recommend watching this in full-screen mode. It's pretty spectacular.

Big beasts indeed!

Peter

Following on from yesterday's post about fiscal obscenity . . .

. . . we find this example of people who just don't get it.

Four in ten Americans believe that President Trump’s administration should forgive all federal student debt in order to help stimulate the economy, a new survey revealed Friday.

There's more at the link.

The federal government cannot 'forgive' debt.  It must be paid, one way or another.  In this case, 'debt forgiveness' simply means that the taxpayers of America as a whole will have to pay off the debt assumed by individuals.  The student loans will be transferred from their private accounts to the public account.  It's precisely the same sort of thing that was used to rescue banks after the 2007/08 financial crisis.  The Fed 'monetized' billions upon billions of dollars in bad debt by buying troubled financial instruments from the banks (both US and foreign) and other institutions that held them.  All US taxpayers now bear the responsibility for paying for those bad investments.  We were lumbered with it without so much as a 'by your leave'.

I'm sorry, but this sort of attitude is what we expect from children, not adults.  If you sign a loan agreement, you should do so with your eyes wide open, fully informed about its implications and consequences.  All that information is available to you, if you'll just read the fine print.  Sadly, many young people don't read the fine print - and are then dismayed when they find themselves trapped in its coils.  Sorry, special snowflakes.  You signed on the dotted line, so it's your responsibility - not mine.

Even worse is the plight of parents and others who stand surety for such loans.  I've heard countless horror stories of parents in their 50's and 60's - some even older - who suddenly find themselves on the hook for hundreds of dollars a month in student loan payments, because their children and grandchildren can't afford (or, in some cases, can't be bothered) to pay up themselves.  The older generation(s) complain that their retirement is ruined, that they'll have to go on working forever to pay off the loans.  My instant response is, "Why did you sign as guarantors and/or security in the first place?"  Surely everyone knows the basic rule that if you can't afford a commitment, you don't make it?

I don't know what the answer is to the crippling burden of student debt affecting so many Americans . . . but I do know that it would be grossly unfair and fiscally irresponsible to make all of us pay for the fiscal fecklessness of the few.  They should have known better.  Why should we bear the consequences, instead of them?

By the time I left home, my parents were preparing to retire, and couldn't afford to send me to university;  so I furthered my education on my own dime (with some assistance from them in earlier years, when they could afford it).  Over the course of more than a decade, I completed a Bachelors degree, a post-graduate diploma, and a Masters degree through distance education and part-time study.  It was hard work, and I had to sacrifice a lot of my social life to study in the evenings and at weekends;  but that was necessary, so I bit the bullet and did it.  I didn't go to a 'party school', or enjoy the social scene at university.  That's just the way it was.  I may have missed out on that experience . . . but I graduated entirely free of student debt, having paid my own way from start to finish.  I remain proud of that accomplishment.

Thousands of others have done (and are still doing) the same thing, mostly for the same reason - money (or the lack thereof).  Why can't young adults today be expected to do likewise, instead of spend tens of thousands of dollars they don't have, and then object to repaying it?

Peter

Only 10 days to go . . .

. . . until Lawdog's first book will be published!

I've been one of those reading the drafts and, more recently, the pre-publication proof copy.  I giggled most of the way through it.  Those of you who know and love Lawdog's stories will find plenty of the best of them in this book, and in future volumes.

Make a note on your calendars for July 17th.  It's going to be a big day!  Keep an eye on Lawdog's blog for updates.

Peter

Container farming in the city - and maybe in your back yard?

I've been following the growth of so-called 'container farming' in cities around the country with considerable interest.  Here's a Wall Street Journal report on the field.

NASA is even considering using the technology in space.

I'm wondering how viable something like this might be for backyard farmers.  One wouldn't need to invest $80,000 per commercial container farm, as in the video above.  Instead, one could buy a used container (for $2,000 to $3,000) and convert it oneself into a general-purpose farming environment, spraying insulation onto the interior surfaces, providing heating and/or air-conditioning, and setting up racks for seedlings.  I see no reason why a family couldn't produce more and better food in such a containerized farm than they could in their own back yards - only they'd do it in much less space.

Theoretically, a home with a relatively small back yard, but big enough to accommodate a 20' or 40' container, might become almost self-sufficient in the production of essential vegetables and fruits.  One might even have a neighborhood setup where different families grow different foods, and swap them among themselves to give everyone a balanced diet.

Is anyone doing that sort of thing at present?  Do any of my readers know anything about it?  If so, please tell us more in Comments.

Peter

This is fiscally obscene

If you can read a report like this without being horrified, there's something wrong with you.

Both the Congressional Budget Office and the White House Office of Management and Budget project that federal spending will top $4 trillion for the first time in fiscal 2017, which began on Oct. 1, 2016 and will end on Sept. 30.

. . .

The $4,008,000,000,000 the CBO estimates the federal government will spend this fiscal year equals $33,805 for each of the 118,562,000 households the Census Bureau estimated were in the United States as of March.

There's more at the link.  Bold, underlined text is my emphasis.

Consider that according to the US Debt Clock, federal government debt currently looks like this (as of 5:15 AM Central time this morning):

Consider also that the budget deficit listed in the graphic above is the amount that the federal government will have to borrow during the current year, to make up the $4-trillion-plus that it wants to spend.  In other words, it will increase the national debt by that much (less any debt that is paid off during the year).

The brutal reality is, we're teetering on the edge of national bankruptcy.  Yes, I know, the federal government can simply 'print money' to pay off the national debt if it wishes;  but that will also cause so much inflation as to render our currency meaningless.  Think Weimar Germany.  Furthermore, federal government debt, horrendous though it is, is merely a reflection of our individual and household borrowing habits.  According to Debt.org:

Household debt (mortgage + home equity loans + credit cards + student loans + auto loans) in the United States reached $12.58 trillion at the end of 2016, an astonishing rise of $460 billion for the year. The typical American household carries an average debt of $134,643.

Whether it’s mortgages ($176,222 average debt), student loans ($49,905), auto loans ($28,948) or credit card debt ($16,748), money issues are rampant through every age group.

America’s median income has risen 28% since 2003, but the cost of living has increased 30% during that span. Meanwhile, medical costs are up by 57%, while food and beverage prices have risen 36%.

Again, more at the link.

I took a look at the four categories outlined in the article above - mortgages, student loans, auto loans and credit card debt - and analyzed our family's position relative to the numbers it provides.  We're doing far better than the average figures listed, and we're trying hard to get to zero on every one of them (for example, we want to pay off our house within ten years from the date of purchase, if possible).  I'm sure many of my readers are doing likewise, trying to get to and stay in a financially sound, healthy position.  However, many - probably most - Americans are either not trying to do that, or they aren't in a financial position to do so, thanks to unemployment, poor salaries, and the crushing burden of medical costs.  That's why household borrowing has risen so high.  It's an attempt to cope with those realities . . . but it's a two-edged sword.  It may help us cope with them in the short term, but in the long term it becomes a financial noose around our necks.

The US government is in the same position.  Five years ago, US News pointed out:

Spending on entitlements is the highest in American history. In 2010, entitlement spending had grown to be almost 100 times higher than it was in 1960; it has increased by an explosive 9.5 percent per year for 50 straight years. Entitlement transfer payments to individuals (such as for income, healthcare, age, and unemployment) have been growing twice as fast as per capita income for 20 years, totaling $2.2 trillion in 2010 alone—which was greater than the entire gross domestic product of Italy and roughly the same as the GDP of Great Britain.

In 1960, entitlement spending accounted for less than a third of all federal spending; in 2010, it was just about two thirds of government outlays, with everything else—defense, justice, all the other duties of government—making up less than one third. Over the last half-century, income-related assistance (which we used to call "welfare") multiplied more than thirtyfold after adjusting for inflation. The most shocking growth has been in Medicare and Medicaid. In the early 1960s, neither program existed; by 2010, these two programs cost more than $900 billion a year.

More Americans rely on government handouts than ever before. The United States is on the brink of disaster now: Half of all American households currently receive transfer payments from the government. According to the Census Bureau, only 30 percent of American households in the 1980s relied on any public assistance.

More at the link.

The situation has gotten worse since then.  According to the Heritage Foundation, by 2032 the US government's entire tax revenue will be consumed in paying for health care, social security, and payment of interest on the national debt.  All other expenditure will have to be funded by borrowing.

We not only have to cut entitlement programs, we have to cut the incessant growth in government spending.  How to do that, in an era when at least half the US population is dependent to a greater or lesser extent on government subsidies and handouts, is an almost insoluble conundrum.  It's why I, and many others, are trying to preach the gospel of fiscal conservatism;  live within your means, save for a rainy day, stock up on essentials against a time when you may not be able to afford them (or they may not be available when needed).  That way, if - or, rather, when - the crunch comes, we'll at least be in a more stable position to ride it out.  It'll still be painful as hell, but it may at least be more survivable for us.

Each and every one of our households will be liable for well over $30,000 of US government spending this fiscal year alone.  That's . . . that's obscene.  There's no other word for it.




Peter

The story of a writer's life . . .

. . . according to Stephan Pastis of 'Pearls Before Swine'.  Click the image to be taken to a larger view at the cartoon's Web page.

Peter

Putting "cultural appropriation" in its place

I'm sure many readers know of the recent demise of a burrito shop in Oregon, after its proprietors were accused of 'cultural appropriation' (CA) for using recipes they'd gathered in Mexico.  CA is the latest politically correct 'buzz word', and is running rampant in social justice warrior circles.

Brad Torgerson recently put CA firmly in its place.  Here's an excerpt.

We’ve all seen the amusing Facebook meme: There are two kinds of countries in the world — those which use the metric system, and those which have landed on the Moon.

You could also easily say: there are two kinds of civilization in the world — the ones which culturally appropriate, and the ones which get left behind. Maybe even die?

It’s 2017, yo. Get your woke-ass panties out of your crack. Nothing you eat, read, listen to, drive, wear, or do for a living, was created in a vacuum. Each and every bit of your modern existence, is the result of people borrowing and stealing good ideas from somebody else. Doesn’t matter if it’s Hong Kong, or Paris, or San Francisco — every modern city is a gleaming, rich example of what happens when cultural appropriation is carried out with gusto.

Consider the nearest Chinese food establishment, employing Mexicans in the grill, a Filipino girl at the register, and serving food which bears little resemblance to anything anyone in China was eating a century ago. Because once people figured out how to jazz things up for an American palate, there was no stopping the culinary freight train. It was Mongolian Beef and General Tso’s from coast to coast. Ka-ching, ka-ching.

Did anyone ever ask the general if his recipe could be used for this purpose?

Hell no!

And it doesn’t matter anyway. The general’s descendants are over at KFC, eating the colonel’s chicken. While listening to South Korean hip-hop. Wearing synthetic clothing made from artificial fabrics invented by a company founded by a Frenchman. That same company also supplied almost half of the Union Army’s gunpowder, during the American Civil War. Gunpowder: another Chinese invention, imported to the West via Mongolian and Arabic means, and originally used for fireworks, as well as rockets. Rockets, which entered liquid-fueled prominence thanks to a New Englander named Goddard, as well as a German named Werner von Braun, who competed with a Russian named Sergei Korolev — to develop intercontinental ballistic missiles capable of carrying hydrogen bombs to the other side of the world, but which put human beings onto the lunar surface instead.

So, there you have it. From Americanized Chinese food to Armstrong’s “One small step for man”. A cavalcade of glorious cultural appropriation, end to end.

There's more at the link.  Go read the whole thing, and use it as ammunition if you run into CA fanatics in your area.

Peter

Heh

Two readers sent this photograph to me via e-mail yesterday.  I don't know its original source.

Clearly, at least one M109 crew appreciates President Trump!




Peter

A 90-year-old shotgun gets a new lease on life

For some time I've wanted a shotgun that will 'take down' - i.e. one that can be disassembled into two halves, for ease of transport, and also so that it doesn't scream 'Long gun!' to anyone seeing me carry it in a rifle sleeve or case.  In particular, I wanted it with me as a travel gun, to have something hard-hitting on hand in hotel rooms, just in case.  (A handgun's all very well, but if you really need to defend yourself against a determined criminal, a bit more energy and 'thump' is appreciated.  See the chart in this article for details.)

The quintessential 'take down' shotguns are the John Moses Browning-designed Winchester Model 1897 and its successor, the Model 12;  but they're expensive, frequently costing $500 upwards in good condition, despite their age.  Also, there's a certain reluctance to chop up such classic guns for defensive purposes.  Therefore, I looked for cheaper alternatives, that would not be any great loss to collectors if cut down for use in confined quarters like a hotel room.

A couple of years ago, I lucked into a Montgomery Ward Western Field Model 30.  This was a store-branded version of the Stevens Model 520, another John Moses Browning design that was produced between 1909 and 1955 in a number of versions.  When I got it, mine looked something like this, albeit in somewhat poorer surface condition (click the image for a slightly larger view).

However, the mechanical components looked to be in good working order, which was the most important thing.

Inspection, and a serial number check, revealed it to be the version manufactured in 1926-27.  This image, courtesy of Wikipedia, reveals the elements that identify it as such.  The firearm depicted is the Ranger model, made as a house brand for Sears, but otherwise identical to the 'Western Field' model made for Montgomery Ward.  The only difference between them and the Stevens originals was the model name engraved on the side plate.  Note the safety catch inside the trigger guard.  It's pulled back to render the weapon safe, and pushed forward to fire it - not the most desirable feature, as one's finger is thus altogether too close for comfort to the 'bang switch', but those ergonomics were acceptable in those days (the famous M1 Garand rifle, the standard US service rifle during World War II, uses a similar system).  One simply has to be careful when handling it.

The takedown mechanism for the Stevens 520/Sears Ranger/Montgomery Ward Model 30 is ingenious, and very strong.  Here's a video clip illustrating how it works. I recommend watching it in full-screen mode to see the details.

I sent the shotgun off to my friend and Blogorado comrade, Joe Speer, for him to work his gunsmithing magic on it.  He shortened the barrel to the legal minimum, and replaced the original brass bead with a red fiber-optic unit that's easier and faster for my aging eyes to pick up in a hurry.  He also went over all the mechanical parts, cleaning them up and making sure everything was in good working order.  At my request, he shortened the stock and fitted a modern, highly absorbent recoil pad that will make shooting the gun much more comfortable.  Finally, he applied a Cerakote finish to the entire shotgun, providing a thoroughly modern, weather-resistant finish that also looks very good.  (He said he had a terrible time getting the finish to 'take', and had to repeat the process three times.  Thank goodness Joe's a patient man who pays attention to detail!)

Here's how the finished product looked this afternoon.  Click the image for a much larger view.

Thanks, Joe!  You did a great job, as usual.

The shotgun will now become my traveling companion when I think it might be needed.  I can divide it into two halves and transport it in an ordinary duffel bag, or even a shoulder bag if necessary.  Loaded with Federal #1 buckshot (using that company's Flite Control wad to hold the pattern together to extend the round's effective range), it should provide an additional level of social persuasion, in the unlikely (and unfortunate) event that it might be required.

Peter

Doofus Of The Day #965

Courtesy of Daily Timewaster, those involved in this incident all get awards today. Watch the video in full-screen mode for best results.

I wonder how many of them had singed nether regions?

Peter

In economic terms, the old are 'eating' the young

Bloomberg opines that the economic divide between human generations is skewed in favor of the old - and it's getting worse.

A significant proportion of recent economic growth has relied on borrowed money -- today standing at a dizzying 325 percent of global gross domestic product. Debt allows society to accelerate consumption, as borrowings are used to purchase something today against the promise of future repayment. Unfunded entitlements to social services, health care and pensions increase those liabilities. The bill for these commitments will soon become unsustainable, as demographic changes make it more difficult to meet.

. . .

The prevailing approach to dealing with these problems exacerbates generational tensions. The central strategy is “kicking the can down the road” or “extend and pretend,” avoiding crucial decisions that would reduce current living standards, eschewing necessary sacrifices, and deferring problems with associated costs into the future.

Rather than reducing high borrowing levels, policy makers use financial engineering, such as quantitative easing and ultra-low or negative interest rates, to maintain them, hoping that a return to growth and just the right amount of inflation will lead to a recovery and allow the debt to be reduced.

. . .

In 1970, in the U.S., there were 5.3 workers for every retired person. By 2010 this had fallen to 4.5, and it’s expected to decline to 2.6 by 2050. In Germany, the number of workers per retiree will decrease to 1.6 in 2050, down from 4.1 in 1970. In Japan, the oldest society to have ever existed, the ratio will decrease to 1.2 in 2050, from 8.5 in 1970. Even as spending commitments grow, in other words, there will be fewer and fewer productive adults around to fund them.

. . .

A final revealing measure is the concept of lifetime net tax benefit, which measures the benefits received over a person’s life by calculating the difference between all taxes paid and all the government transfers that he or she has received and will receive. A 2010 study from the International Monetary Fund found that in the U.S. the lifetime tax burden was positive (tax paid was less than benefits received) for all age cohorts above 18 years, with the largest benefit accruing to those over age 50. But the figure for future generations is negative (benefits received will be less than taxes paid), meaning they’ll have to meet the obligations of their elders.

. . .

As in Francisco Goya’s famous painting, “Saturn Devouring His Son,” today, the old are eating their children.

There's more at the link.

This is a potentially explosive problem.  It's bad enough in the First World, where the Baby Boomers and their older children are now retiring en masse, and consuming all the resources they've built up during their lifetimes (not to mention drawing Social Security or the equivalent as well, all paid for out of current taxation).  (I'm at the latter end of the Baby Boom period myself, but I'm not drawing down on anyone's pension.  I rely on my writing to earn a living, so I don't have to feel guilty about such things - thank heavens!)

However, in the Third World it's far, far worse.  The hordes of Africans trying to get into the European Union by hook or by crook are economic migrants, not refugees.  They're desperate to find somewhere - anywhere! - they can make a living, because there's nothing for them in their countries of origin.  Those who make it across the Mediterranean find themselves competing for government support with the elderly and the poor who are already there - and they're putting up a stiff fight for 'their share'.  It's already placing great fiscal pressure on the governments involved.  Only those who are determined to stop the refugee/migrant flood at their borders (e.g. Hungary) appear to have any chance of dealing with the problem successfully.

The USA is, of course, confronted by the same problem, stemming largely from South America.  President Obama appears to have turned a blind eye to it, even going so far as to encourage illegal aliens to cross our borders.  Thankfully, President Trump is trying to stop that - but there are already millions, perhaps tens of millions, of illegal aliens already here.  We have to kick them out to avoid their economic drain on our limited resources . . . but, because they have nothing left where they came from, many will do anything and everything they can to avoid being sent back.  They're already clogging up the court system for years to come as they fight against deportation.  (Their hope, of course, is that if they drag things out long enough, a new President will take office, one more disposed to be sympathetic towards them.)

Even without Third World migration, we have enough of a problem paying for the needs of all Americans.  Inevitably, the older population will be forced to relinquish at least some of the benefits on which they've come to rely.  Social Security payments are already hobbled by being linked to a risibly small and inaccurate inflation rate (which we've discussed here before).  Real consumer prices are rising at an annual rate five to ten times higher than the official rate of inflation.  Therefore, seniors who rely on Social Security to fund their retirement are in for a shock.  Medical costs are also rising at a horrendous rate.  It's virtually certain that older people, whose medical expenses are much higher per capita than those of younger folk, will have to do without more and more government-subsidized treatment.  If they can't pay for it themselves, they'll have to do without - and perhaps die without it, too.

I don't have any solution to offer to this conundrum . . . unless it's the young killing off the old out of sheer frustration - and since I'm rapidly approaching elder status myself, I don't take much comfort from that!

Peter

Jupiter, up close and personal

Here's a fun video:  the sixth flypast of Jupiter by NASA's Juno spacecraft, which it completed last month.  I don't know why someone decided to include a creepy soundtrack with the video;  it's more than compelling enough without it!  Oh, well - you can always mute the volume.  Watch it in full-screen mode for best results.

It's hard to imagine that there are no solid features at all in what we've just seen.  Jupiter is a so-called 'gas giant' planet, so its entire surface is just a swirling mass of gas (you should pardon the expression), no matter how solid it may appear to our eyes.

Peter

Keep your hands away from your gun's muzzle! (Warning: NSFW - graphic images)

Tamara has a new article at Breach, Bang, Clear that addresses this vital subject.  If you want to know why it's vital, this photograph says it all:

Go read the whole article.  It's a warning of which (IMHO) all gun-owners should be reminded at least once or twice every year.

Peter

North Korea's latest missile launch is a real threat to the USA

I've noticed several comments to the effect that North Korea's latest missile launch traveled 'less than 600 miles', and is therefore not a threat to the USA.  That's completely wrong.  The missile looks to have been intercontinental in range, as Stratfor's analysis reveals.

At 9:10 a.m. local time on July 4, North Korea launched a new ballistic missile, the Hwasong-14, from the Panghyon Airport in North Pyongan Province. The Hwasong-14 was tested at a lofted, or steep, trajectory. This flight path maximizes the altitude of the missile and reduces its distance traveled in order to avoid overflying neighboring regions and countries such as Japan. Pyongyang further claimed that the Hwasong-14 missile was an Intercontinental Ballistic Missile — a statement that is thus far backed up by the available flight data.

The Hwasong-14 achieved the farthest distance traveled by a North Korean missile in tests so far. The previous longest shot occurred on May 14 with a test of the Hwasong-12. That missile reached an apogee of 2,111.5 kilometers (1312 miles) and a range of around 700 kilometers (435 miles) with a flight time of 30 minutes.

The July 4 Hwasong-14 flight characteristics show a clear improvement. According to the South Korean Joint Chiefs of Staff, the missile landed more than 930 kilometers (578 miles) away from its launch point. According to the Japanese Ministry of Defense, the observed apogee of the missile greatly exceeded 2,500 kilometers. Finally, the United States Pacific Command reported that the flight time of the missile was 37 minutes. Given these flight details, the North Korean missile should technically be able to reach a distance of more than 6,000 kilometers (3,278 miles) on a standard trajectory.

Given that 5,500 kilometers is the minimum range for a missile to be classified as an Intercontinental Ballistic Missile, the North Korean claim that the latest test was an ICBM is substantiated by the missile's flight data. The assumed range of the missile is about 6,000 to 6,500 kilometers, which would enable Pyongyang to reach all of Alaska, but would not yet give North Korea the ability to strike the Hawaiian Islands or the continental United States.

. . .

With the White House already signaling its determination to prevent further North Korean progress, the July 4 Hwasong-14 missile test tilts an increasingly precarious regional balance.

There's more at the link.

North Korea has already successfully tested ballistic missile re-entry vehicles, and has demonstrated its possession of nuclear weapons.  If it develops this ICBM only a little further, it'll be in a position to threaten the entire west coast of the USA.  Given the unstable, xenophobic, insular regime in Pyongyang, that's an intolerable threat . . . one that this country simply cannot tolerate.  The question is, what to do about it?  A conventional war on the Korean peninsula would devastate both North and South Korea, and probably draw in China and Russia as well, leading to a 'hot war' superpower confrontation that might not remain confined to the region.  On the other hand, a surgical nuclear strike against North Korea's missile and nuclear facilities would not take out its massive conventional forces, which would almost certainly launch an offensive against South Korea in response.  President Trump has a real dilemma on his hands here.

I wonder whether that dilemma might not be behind the recent US decision to sell advanced weapons to Taiwan?  The Chinese are incensed by it.  Might it be a signal to them that if they won't 'play ball' over North Korea, and use their influence to help resolve the situation there, they can't expect the USA to 'play ball' with them over Taiwan - or, for that matter, over the disputed South China Sea islands, where a US Navy destroyer has just sailed?

Whatever's going on behind the scenes, I expect action in or around North Korea within a matter of months.  The danger from that unstable nation is too great to allow the situation to get any further out of hand.

Peter

Safely home

We arrived home late yesterday afternoon, after about 18 hours on the road from Chattanooga (including stops here and there).  I was pretty exhausted, and flopped into bed to recover from the driving.  Turns out we beat Old NFO home - he flew United, and the airline monumentally screwed up his flights, so he ended up taking longer to fly here from Chattanooga than we did to drive!  He's not a happy camper . . .

It was a good convention.  As always, it was wonderful to meet old friends, make some new ones, and catch up on all the gossip of the writing world.  I'm already looking forward to next year!

I'll post again a little later this morning, once I've woken up properly.

Peter

Heh

It's amazing how many wannabes, in any and every field, make this mistake.  (Click the image for a larger view at the comic's Web site.)

Scott Adams has an almost uncanny ability to skewer self-importance and braggadocio in his cartoons.  He's also an interesting blogger, and worth reading.  Recommended.

Peter

The real cause of the stock market's continued rise

John Mauldin (whom we've met in these pages many times before) explains the real reason why stock markets all over the world are in such an exuberant frenzy.

The SNB [Swiss national bank] owns about $80 billion in US stocks today (June, 2017) and a guesstimated $20 billion or so in European stocks (this guess comes from my friend Grant Williams, so I will go with it).

They have bought roughly $17 billion worth of US stocks so far this year. And they have no formula; they are just trying to manage their currency.

Think about this for a moment: They have about $10,000 in US stocks on their books for every man, woman, and child in Switzerland, not to mention who knows how much in other assorted assets, all in the effort to keep a lid on what is still one of the most expensive currencies in the world.

. . .

The point is that central banks and governments are flooding the market with liquidity all over the world.

That’s showing up in the private asset markets, in stock and housing and real estate and bond prices. It creates an unquenchable desire for what appear to be cheap but are actually overvalued assets—which is what creates a Minsky moment.

Now, remember what Minsky said: When an economy reaches the Ponzi-financing stage, it becomes extremely sensitive to asset prices. Any downturn or even an extended flat period can trigger a crisis.

While we have many domestic issues that could act as that trigger, I see a high likelihood that the next Minsky moment will propagate from China or Europe. All the necessary excesses and transmission channels are in place.

The hard part, of course, is the timing. The Happy Daze can linger far longer than any of us anticipate. Then again, some seemingly insignificant event in Europe or China—an Austrian Archduke’s being assassinated, or what have you—can cause the world to unravel.

It’s a funny world.

Our central banks and governments exhibit unmistakable herd behavior and continue to do the same foolish things over and over. They never really intend to have the crisis that ensues.

Remember Farrell’s Rule 3: There are no new eras. The world changes, but danger remains. Gravity always wins eventually. It will win this time, too. And when it does, we will begin to undergo the Great Reset.

There's more at the link.

I think Mr. Mauldin speaks wisdom.  The news from Illinois last Friday is merely another crisis to add to those already bubbling away - Venezuela's economic collapse, insecurity in the Persian Gulf, North Korea's xenophobic aggression, and what have you.  There are far too many to list here.  One or more of those elements may yet trigger an overall systemic collapse, alone or in combination.  That's not guaranteed - but it's far from impossible, too.

Keep your head down and your economic powder dry, friends.

Peter

LibertyCon, days 2 and 3

Libertycon was its usual fun self over the weekend.  About 750 attendees descended on Chattanooga from all over the country (and a few from overseas), and everyone seemed to enjoy themselves.

One of the interesting things about working on a collection of short stories is the different backgrounds, perspectives and approaches of the other authors.  I was reminded of this by two gatherings.  First, on Saturday afternoon, Michael Z. Williamson gathered the authors of his forthcoming 'Freehold' anthology, 'Forged in Blood', to discuss their stories and how they developed them.  I daresay we enjoyed hearing from our fellow authors how they'd gone about it even more than the fans in the audience enjoyed the background information.  The anthology is due for release in September.

Then, on Sunday morning, Tom Kratman gathered together the authors he's invited to contribute to a story anthology set in his 'Carreraverse'.  At his invitation, we each described our story ideas, and how we were developing them.  The anthology is still under development, but I think all of us will have submitted our first drafts by late this year, after which Tom will edit them, suggest improvements and alterations, and begin writing the 'bridging' material while we tackle the changes and updates.  If all goes well, the anthology will probably be published in late 2018 or 2019.

The weekend was filled with panels, seminars and presentations.  As usual, the problem was to decide which one absolutely had to attend, and which one had to pass up on as a result!  Miss D. and I had a couple of problems with double-booked slots, as well.  We're going to have to watch that very carefully in future, and try to prevent problems before they arise.  As one becomes better known and receives more speaking assignments, it's not hard for that sort of thing to slip through the cracks.  We don't blame the convention staff, though - they did their usual superb job.  It's just that if they don't know all of your commitments ahead of time, they can't take them into account in their scheduling.

Miss D. and I finally tore ourselves away at midday, and hit the road on the way home.  (It's going to be fun if we're stopped by police.  I collected a few of my guns from Joe Speer after he'd applied his gunsmithing skills to them, as did some of our friends - and they're all in the trunk of our car!  I can almost hear the exchange . . . "Any firearms in the car, sir?"  "Well, how many would you like, officer, and in what calibers and gauges?")  We did a solid nine hours on the road, and reached Maumelle, Arkansas, late in the evening.  We're overnighting at a hotel here that's become a regular stopping point for us, and we'll head out for the rest of our journey home on Monday morning.  It takes a lot longer to drive to and from Libertycon than to fly, but the costs are similar (even including car rental, gasoline and hotels);  we don't have to worry about airlines treating us like cattle;  and there are no TSA goons behaving like jackbooted thugs!  I can put up with a lot of driving in exchange for that . . .

I'll queue up a post or two to pop up during the day.  Regular blogging will resume on Tuesday.

Peter

Sunday morning music

Continuing our classical music theme from the past few weekends, here's the 'Capriol Suite' by Peter Warlock.  I find it captivating.

Peter Warlock was a haunted man in many ways, dying young of what is suspected to be suicide.  Who knows how much more he might have contributed to music had he lived?

Peter

If Illinois owes you money, you're probably in trouble

I'd almost missed this news in the rush of activity at Libertycon, but if you're owed money by Illinois, whether a debt that must be paid, or your salary, or your pension . . . you'd better have enough cash reserves to survive without it, if this goes on.

A federal judge on Friday ordered Illinois to start paying $293 million in state money toward Medicaid bills every month and an additional $1 billion over the course of the next year, worsening a cash-flow problem caused by two years of budget-free spending by state government.

. . .

Comptroller Susana Mendoza ... said Friday's ruling would cause her to likely have to cut payments to the state's pension funds, state payroll or payments to local governments. Payments to bond holders won't be interrupted, she said.

"As if the governor and legislators needed any more reason to compromise and settle on a comprehensive budget plan immediately, Friday's ruling by the U.S. District Court takes the state's finances from horrific to catastrophic," Mendoza said in a statement. "A comprehensive budget plan must be passed immediately."

There's more at the link.

Please note the critical sentence in Comptroller Mendoza's statement:

"Friday's ruling by the U.S. District Court takes the state's finances from horrific to catastrophic"

The person speaking is the one currently juggling Illinois' ever-fewer free dollars, deciding each month which bills to pay and which to delay.  The state's backlog - payments it owes, and is supposed to have made already, but has not - amounted as of June 30th to $14,711,352,943.90.  Yes, that's $14 billion plus.  It has to make those backlogged payments over and above the routine, everyday payments it has to make for all normal transactions.  No wonder Ms. Mendoza calls the state's finances 'catastrophic'.  It's a pretty accurate description.

Folks, if you depend financially on the state of Illinois, you need to be implementing your financial-emergency contingency plans.  Now.  If you haven't made those plans yet, it's probably too late to start.

Peter

OK, this is a serious health threat, if true

It seems our children are growing up with vision problems caused by smartphones and similar electronic devices.  The New York Post reports:

More people are suffering from myopia (short-sightedness) now than 10 years ago, according to eye health expert Andrew Bastawrous, who said that the amount of time spent staring at screens might be to blame.

. . .

Eyeball growth slows down in your late teens but there is evidence that younger generations’ peepers are continuing to grow.

“The initial theory for this is that people are doing more near-plane reading activity with smartphones which is encouraging the eye to become myopic to meet that environmental need,” Bastawrous told Wired.

“There’s also evidence that suggests this is happening too quickly for it to be purely an environmental or genetic response.”

“More recent data suggests a more important factor has been that we spend less time outdoors than we used to.”

He added that in some cases like Singapore, more than 90 percent of pupils are leaving school short-sighted.

It follows warnings that British kids face a life of wearing specs because they don’t go outside enough.

. . .

Bastawrous added ... “Many people no longer spend time looking at the stars and the mountains, they’re looking at screens more often instead.”

There's more at the link.

If the rapid spread of electronic screens, large and small, is doing this, we're effectively evolving ourselves into less healthy lives.  I suspect the only answer will be to force kids to go outside every so often, whether they want to or not, to make them develop healthier viewing habits.  However, that won't help for adults - so what do we do to solve their problem?

Peter

Modern economics, travel edition

It just goes to show:  if you can't manage your business efficiently, others will find a way to buypass it (and you) entirely.

A student travelling from Newcastle to London found an ingenious way of avoiding shelling out for a pricey train ticket - by flying to his destination via Spain.

Bargain hunter Joe Furness found the cheapest one way ticket to the capital, searching the night before his trip, was £78.50, and so decided to look for alternative - and cheaper - options.

The 21-year-old scoured the internet and found he could fly to London via the sunny Spanish island of Menorca for a bargain £26.99.

Upon arriving in the Mediterranean, the commuter had 12 hours to explore the island and headed straight a beach, which he had “all to himself”, in a budget hire car to enjoy the sunshine.

“Basically, you can have a night on a Spanish island, hire a car, have a cocktail on the beach, fly back to London and still have £40 left over,” he explained.

He documented the journey and posted the video on his Wandering Joe YouTube page to “show how ridiculous the UK train fares are”.

There's more at the link.

I've learned to do this myself - and not just when it comes to travel, either.  I routinely comparison-shop over the Internet.  For a lot of things, I find I can get significantly better prices online than local stores want to charge me, even including shipping costs.  I accept that brick-and-mortar stores have higher overheads, and because I want them to be around when I need them, I shop at them for many of my needs:  but I refuse to be ripped off for fifty to a hundred per cent more than I can pay online for the same goods!  If they do that, sorry . . . they've lost my business, and I'm unlikely to give them a second chance.

(I'd like to know how large a part that's played in Sears' current financial woes.  I found it consistently overpriced, with staff who didn't know what they were trying to sell, and stores that were dirty, poorly stocked and awkwardly laid out, making it hard to find what I wanted.  I stopped shopping there some years ago.  From what I hear, it hasn't improved, so I have no incentive to go back there.  Another example is car dealerships, particularly used cars.  It's sometimes cheaper to fly across country to buy a car, then drive back, rather than patronize local dealers.)

At any rate, kudos to Mr. Furness for finding an inventive and fun way to get around high rail fares.  I hope the railway companies will learn from his tale . . . but I suspect they won't.

Peter

LibertyCon, Day 1

Yesterday (Friday) was a fun - albeit exhausting - day.  LibertyCon registration kicked off in the morning, and we (myself, Miss D., Old NFO, Lawdog, DaddyBear and others) picked up our badges and material at the registration desk.  As usual, kudos to the organizers for making the process as painless as possible.

Old NFO joined me at my table in Author's Alley early in the afternoon, to sign books for those wanting to buy them from the authors.  My stock of books is unfortunately limited, after an order for fresh stocks went astray in shipping, but Castalia House came through by sending copies of my latest Western novel to the convention hotel, where they were waiting for me when I arrived.  I'm sorry to disappoint those who wanted my most recent SF novels, but those are the breaks . . . sometimes we just can't help it.  Lawdog and other friends came to visit while we were sitting there.  I was highly amused to encounter two of his fans, who went into full-on squeeeee! mode when I introduced them to him.  I rather think his first book, due for publication shortly, is going to be a much bigger success than he realizes.  He's got fans out there who've been waiting for it for years.

My first panel followed my Author's Alley session.  I moderated a discussion on 'The Confluence of the Science Fiction and Western Genres'.  It was a lively and interesting session, because there are many similarities between the genres - and, for that matter, between some of their staple clichés and real life!  We had a fun time.  I didn't get to attend the official opening session immediately afterwards, because Mad Mike hijacked me to sign 525 bookplates for a forthcoming anthology set in his 'Freehold' universe.  (I'm one of the contributors.)  Almost two hours later, arm, wrist and hand aching, I'd finished them, and joined our friends as we all went off to supper.

Our usual crowd was joined by Joe Speer, gunsmith to some of us and good friend to all of us, who drove up from Birmingham, AL to join us for the evening.  We raided the City Café Diner again, for the second time this trip, enjoying its usual outsized servings of outstandingly good food.  (The Diner is one of the unspoken highlights of our annual trips to Chattanooga . . . I sometimes wonder how many come back for LibertyCon, and how many for the food!).  We adjourned to the Chattanooga Choo-Choo hotel's new 'Frothy Monkey' coffee bar for postprandial imbibement.  (Lawdog and I, both being old Africa hands, regarded the bar's name with a certain dubious alarm . . . it sounds as if the critter's got rabies!)  Finally, we all collapsed into bed, exhausted but happy, the first day of the convention safely under our belts.

We've got a busy Saturday ahead of us.  I'll try to queue up a couple of posts for later on.

Peter