The new "Freehold" anthology is out - and I'm in it

Today is publication day for Baen Books' new anthology of stories set in Michael Z. Williamson's "Freehold" universe.  It's called "Forged in Blood".

Mike kindly invited me to contribute to this anthology, which I did in a story titled "Ripper".  It describes the founding of the colony on Grainne, and how an ancient sword from Earth played its part in the process.  Here's an excerpt from my story.

After supper they watched with interest as Tom cleaned his sword, the first opportunity he’d had to do so since his field gear had been released from the secure baggage compartment before they disembarked. He drew a small wooden box from his pack and from it took three squares of paper, a little cloth ball on a short stick, and a bottle of oil. He wiped the sword with a sheet of paper, then dabbed it with the cloth ball up and down both sides of the patterned blade, leaving a faint trace of powder at each spot. This he spread carefully across the blade using a second sheet of paper.

“What’s that?” David asked.

“The paper’s called nuguigami. It’s soft, made of rice pulp for cleaning traditional Japanese swords with their folded-steel blades. In the old days, the powder in the silk ball would have been the residue from sharpening stones. Nowadays it’s a synthetic equivalent. It cleans and polishes the blade. This”—he nodded to the small bottle—“is choji oil—also synthetic; you can’t get the real stuff anymore. It keeps the steel in perfect condition.”

“Seems like you have to go to an awful lot of trouble. Wouldn’t a modern battle steel blade like Mika’s be easier to maintain?”

“Yes, but it wouldn’t have the history this one has.” Tom brushed off the last of the powder, placed a few drops of oil up and down the blade, then took the third sheet of paper and began to spread them. “My father asked an expert about it. He said it’s similar to museum specimens that are over five hundred years old. My grandfather came by it back on Sulawan.”

“I guess that makes it pretty special,” David said wistfully.

“It does to me. I hope I have a kid one day who’ll join the Army and inherit it from me.”

“And if none of your kids do?”

Tom shrugged. “Then I guess I’ll have to find a soldier worthy of it, who’ll agree to carry on the tradition in his own family when the time comes. This is a piece of history. It’s too important to be given to just anybody.”

At 0320 the next morning, Tom was jolted out of a sound sleep by a yell of alarm and a coughing, rasping snarl, seeming to come from right next to his shelter. Three shots sounded, rapid fire, and the snarl changed to a scream as something big and heavy slammed into the thin plasfiber wall, buckling it. As Tom and Mika frantically tried to get out of their sleeping bags, four razor-sharp claws slashed at the wall, tearing it open. A brindled head thrust through the gap.

Only halfway out of his sleeping bag, adrenaline coursing through his body, Tom grabbed the sword from next to his field cot. His left hand pulled the scabbard as his right tugged at the hilt. Flinging the scabbard away, he slashed one-handed at the head as it lunged toward him, jaws open to display a vicious set of teeth, its rank breath like a slap in the face. His blade cut right into the open mouth, severing part of the tongue and carving into the back of the jaw as he sliced across. The creature yowled in pain and tried to bite down on the blade as its mouth spouted blood, but the muscles and tendons that opened and closed its jaws were no longer working properly. More shots sounded from outside. Its body jerked and twitched as they struck home. It tried to back out through the tear in the wall, but Tom rolled onto his knees and thrust his sword two-handed up through the roof of its still-open mouth. With a final shudder, the beast collapsed.

Releasing his sword, Tom kicked off the sleeping bag and grabbed his carbine, lining it as he flicked off the safety; but the weapon wasn’t needed. The animal lay unmoving.

A shout came from outside. “Boss! You okay?” The voice was shrill, almost fearful.

Still shaken, Tom had to concentrate to keep his voice controlled and steady. “I’m all right. I’m coming out.”

He emerged to find his entire security detachment converging on the scene, carrying their weapons. One of the sentries on duty was waiting for him.

“I didn’t see it at all until it peered out from between your shelter and the next one, Boss. I reckon it musta snuck into camp behind the charging station, moving real quiet.” The guard nodded toward the serried ranks of capacitors from the construction vehicles’ power packs, being charged overnight by the camp’s mobile fusion microreactor. “I fired at it, but instead of running it turned and attacked your shelter.”

Tom nodded slowly, looking down at the dead animal in the beams of his team’s flashlights. He could see it was the same breed as the one that had snatched the body of the smaller predator that morning. “It nearly got me. Good shooting. I finished it with my sword.”

I had a lot of fun writing my story, and it was a pleasure and a privilege to be part of such a great team of contributors.  I hope you enjoy their tales as much as I have.  They cover thousands of years of history, and a multitude of scenarios.  Highly recommended.

Peter

A timely warning from John Farnam about homelessness and crime

We've met shooting and self-defense instructor John Farnam in these pages before.  He's just published a training note that I think is important for all of us who live in, or visit, major cities.  He begins by quoting a correspondent in Salt Lake City concerning its problems with the homeless.

‘We must separate drug dealers and other ‘real criminals’ from the homeless….,’ or so goes the party line.

Yet, when talking with local police officers, you’ll hear a completely different story! They’ll tell you about ‘the homeless’ breaking into parked cars and houses, urinating in public, defecating on front lawns, assaulting people in public places, stealing everything that isn’t nailed down, etc.

The ‘homeless’ are the ‘real criminals!’ They are just the bottom rung. Drug-dealers are slightly more enterprising!”

John comments:

Denver, LA, San Francisco, and a dozen other liberal-run metro areas all share this same manufactured “problem.”

Downtown areas have become so crime-ridden and dangerous that tourists now hesitate to go there. Cities then desperately fight to keep these areas “safe,” the only way they know how: a “wall-to-wall” police presence, particularly on weekends. That, of course, leaves no police for the rest of the city!

Some cities, like Detroit and Philadelphia, have given up! Once-lively downtown areas there are now mostly boarded-up.

It’s the trend!

“Catering to criminals,” a liberal linchpin, is rotting once-grand cities, from the inside out.

There's more at the link.  Highly recommended reading.

Of course, the homeless are often violent towards each other.  As one Fresno, CA activist pointed out earlier this year, "we are starting to see an increase in client violence because it is kind of like the street justice, they are taking care of their own out on the street".  This is, in turn, producing a backlash from residents of those cities.  Just yesterday, an as-yet-unidentified motorist deliberately ran over three sleeping vagrants in Tulsa, OK, killing one.  That's far from the only so-called "hate crime" directed against the homeless - and the problem isn't restricted to the USA, either.

One can argue ad nauseam about the causes of and solutions for homelessness.  The fact remains, it appears to generate or exacerbate a great many social ills, including crime and violence.  Those living within reach of the problem need to be aware of that risk, and conduct themselves accordingly.

Peter

Unicorn Riot shows us how it's (not) done

Some of my readers may have heard of Unicorn Riot, one of the many groups on the Antifa/BAMN/Black Lives Matter/EIEIO spectrum.  They apparently produced the video clip below, showing their efforts to train their members in fighting skills, in order to "defend the marginalized", yadda, yadda, yadda.

I'll let the video speak for itself.

Uh-huh.  I'm sure many of my readers are trembling in their shoes (?) for fear (?) of the skills (?) displayed.  For myself, I think Clint Smith had the right of it when he famously said, "You can say ‘stop’ or ‘alto’ or use any other word you think will work, but I’ve found that a large bore muzzle pointed at someone’s head is pretty much the universal language."

A grateful tip o' the hat to the multiple readers who sent me the link to the video.

Peter

Just goes to show: you can't keep a good laugh down!

Some years ago, I posted this video clip from the Comedy Barn show.  It featured a man who just couldn't stop laughing - and had the presenter and the audience in hysterics.

To my surprise and delight, I found a more recent video on YouTube showing another such incident.  It seems Comedy Barn attracts people like that.  Go figure!

Toooooo funny . . . and infectious!




Peter

Politics 101

Found at, and borrowed from, A Nod to the Gods:

That just about says it all, doesn't it?

Peter

More from Storm Doris: eight aborted landings

Following my previous post, about landings and take-offs during Storm Doris at Birmingham airport in the UK earlier this year, here's another video showing eight landing attempts that were aborted due to the crosswinds.

Again, I'm glad I wasn't aboard any of those planes!

Peter

Landings and takeoffs in a 62 mph crosswind

Here's some spectacular footage of landings and takeoffs at Birmingham airport in the UK during Storm Doris, earlier this year.  The takeoff runs are almost as spectacular as the landings, as the planes are shoved sideways and have to take off 'crabbing' into the wind at a very sharp angle.  I'm glad I wasn't aboard any of them!

I'd say the pilots earned their pay that day . . .




Peter

Making politically correct hay out of Hurricane Harvey

Predictably, the politically correct are trying to turn the impact of Hurricane Harvey into arguments in favor of their various causes - particularly climate change.  To take just one example, last weekend Nicholas Kristof fretted in the New York Times:

Scott Pruitt, President Trump’s head of the Environmental Protection Agency, says it’s “misplaced” to talk about Harvey and climate change.

Really? To me, avoiding the topic is like a group of frogs sitting in a beaker, fretting about the growing warmth of the water but neglecting to jump out. Climate scientists are in agreement that there are at least two ways climate change is making hurricanes worse.

First, hurricanes arise from warm waters, and the Gulf of Mexico has warmed by two to four degrees Fahrenheit over the long-term average. The result is more intense storms.

“There is a general consensus that the frequency of high-category (3, 4 and 5) hurricanes should increase as the climate warms,” Kerry Emanuel, a hurricane expert at M.I.T., tells me. Likewise, three experts examined the data over 30 years and concluded that Atlantic tropical cyclones are getting stronger.

Second, as the air warms, it holds more water vapor, so the storms dump more rain. That’s why there’s a big increase in heavy downpours (“extreme precipitation events”). Nine of the top 10 years for heavy downpours in the U.S. have occurred since 1990.

“Climate change played a role in intensifying the winds and rainfall associated with Hurricane Harvey,” says Charles Greene, a climate scientist at Cornell. He notes that there’s also a third way, not yet proven, in which climate change may be implicated: As Arctic sea ice is lost, wind systems can meander and create blockages — like those that locked Harvey in place over Houston. It was this stalling that led Harvey to be so destructive.

Frankly, it’s staggering that there’s still so much resistance among elected officials to the idea of human-caused climate change.

There's more at the link.

However, it turns out that "climate scientists" are anything but united about how anthropogenic climate change is affecting storms such as Hurricane Harvey.  The Wall Street Journal noted:

Who says progressives don’t believe in religion? They may not believe in Jehovah or Jesus, but they certainly believe in Old Testament-style wrath against sinners. Real Noah and the Ark stuff. Witness the emerging theme on the media left that Texas, and especially Houston, are at fault for the devastation of Hurricane Harvey.

. . .

“Harvey, the Storm That Humans Helped Cause,” said a headline in one progressive bellwether as the storm raged. An overseas columnist was less subtle if more clichéd: “Houston, you have a problem, and some of it of your own making.” In this telling, Houston is the Sodom and Gomorrah of fossil fuels, which cause global warming, which is producing more hurricanes.

The problem is that this argument is fact-free. As Roger Pielke Jr. has noted, the link between global warming and recent hurricanes and extreme weather events is “unsupportable based on research and evidence.” Mr. Pielke, who is no climate-change denier, has shown with data that hurricanes hitting the U.S. have not increased in frequency or intensity since 1900, there is no notable trend up or down in global tropical cyclone landfalls since 1970, and floods have not increased in frequency or intensity in the U.S. since 1950.

The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration recently said that “it is premature to conclude that human activities—and particularly greenhouse gas emissions that cause global warming—have already had a detectable impact on Atlantic hurricane or global tropical cyclone activity.”

No less than the United Nations Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change says it lacks evidence to show that global warming is making storms and flooding worse. But climate scolds still blame Harvey on climate change because, well, this is what the climate models say should happen as the climate warms.

In other words, Houstonians, you’d better go to climate confession, mend your sinful ways, and give up all of those high-paying oil-and-gas jobs. Maybe all those drillers and refiners can work for Google or Facebook.

Again, more at the link (which may disappear behind a paywall).

I have no problem whatsoever believing in climate change as a generic, ongoing reality.  After all, the climate's been changing every year since this planet developed a climate!  The question is, are humans causing it?  I suspect our influence is much less than alarmists would have us believe.  After all, the so-called "Medieval Warm Period" saw higher temperatures than we experience today;  the so-called "Maunder Minimum" saw much colder temperatures than at present.  Both are evidence of climate change, but not of anthropogenic (i.e. human-caused) climate change.  Natural disasters such as the eruption of volcanoes are yet another factor in climate change;  indeed, the Toba super-eruption, some 75,000 years ago, may have led to a 1,000-year period of global cooling known as a "volcanic winter".

It's going to be fun when alarmists for one aspect of climate change collide head-on with those from another background or school of thought.  For example, there are those who believe that current low sunspot activity levels may presage a new period of global cooling, similar to the Maunder Minimum.  It's even being referred to as an imminent "mini-Ice Age".  On the other hand, it's been argued that low solar activity might offset global warming, even perhaps cancelling it out altogether.  So, global warming?  Global cooling?  Who knows? - and, among those who claim they know, how can they prove their respective cases?  The answer, of course, is that they can't.  We don't yet know enough about global weather and temperatures to say for sure.  Despite all claims to the contrary, the science is not settled.  Follow these three links for more discussion of the issues involved.

I just shrug my shoulders and get on with the business of living.  When the experts can't agree, I have to make the best judgment call I can, based on incomplete and/or inadequate information.  Since I can't do anything to change or affect this sort of influence on my life, I'd better be ready, willing and able to deal with its consequences, whatever they may be.  That may not be politically correct, but it is, at least, a practical solution.

Now . . . do I need a climate-change-powered barbecue grill in the back yard, to take advantage of all the heat that's coming our way, or a flash freezing facility, to preserve the food I won't be able to grow in the extreme cold?

Peter

Sunday morning music

An e-mail conversation with a blog reader raised the question of protest songs.  She wanted to know about the music of Antifa, BAMN, BLM and other contemporary protest groups.  What songs were they singing?  Did music play a role at all?

I couldn't answer her question, but it started me thinking about the long and incredibly rich history of protest music.  It's been around almost as long as humans have had something to complain about!  I'm aware of some dating back to Wat Tyler and the Peasants' Revolt of 1381, inspired by the sermons of John Ball, who famously asked, "When Adam delved and Eve span, who was then the gentleman?"  Unfortunately, I haven't been able to find any recordings of those songs online.

Later movements such as the Luddites and Chartists of the 19th Century left more protest songs.  Here's Martin Carty performing the Chartist anthem "The Song of the Lower Classes".  Lyrics may be found here.

Let's move along to songs with which more of us will be familiar.  During the 1950's, a gospel song was adapted into the protest anthem "We Shall Overcome", a staple of of the Civil Rights movement in the USA, and of left-wing and socialist movements around the world during the second half of the 20th century.  Here's Pete Seeger singing it.  (In another video, he talks about the history of the song, and how it became the anthem of a generation.  It makes interesting listening.)

During the 1950's and 1960's Bob Dylan wrote many protest songs.  One of the best known is " The Times They Are A Changin' ".

Protest tended to become more individualized and anti-society during and after the 1960's;  more in favor of "me, me, me" and "freedom", and more against the structures of society and "The Man".  Here, from 1970, is the Five Man Electrical Band with "Signs".

From 1981, here's Peter Frampton with "Breaking All The Rules".  The music video appears to be an eerie harbinger of later dystopian movies such as "The Hunger Games".

And, from 1987, here's Def Leppard with "Run Riot", from their album "Hysteria".

In the country of my birth, South Africa, a great deal of protest music was generated in the struggle against apartheid.  I've chosen two to reflect that era, both by local supergroup Juluka.  First, from 1981, "High Country".  This reflects the divide between the understanding (or lack thereof) of a  colonial-era white woman, and the black child/young man to whom she speaks - and the violence that such patronizing attitudes made inevitable.

And, from 1983, "Bullets for Bafazane".  It's about a black guerrilla/freedom fighter/terrorist (depending on one's point of view), and the efforts to kill him by apartheid security forces.  It tries to emphasize his humanity in the midst of the violence.

There are literally thousands more protest songs in almost every language, from almost every culture on earth.  This is just a very small selection.  Wikipedia has more information on protest songs in general, on music in the movement against apartheid, and on US protest songs.  It's a fascinating field.

Peter

Heh

Vox Day, self-proclaimed Supreme Dark Lord and anathema to many on the left wing of the publishing world (but a nice guy, really!), discovers a drawback to his dark lifestyle.




Peter

So much for Antifa, BLM, BAMN, LGBTBBQWTFEIEIO, and the rest of the alphabet soup

My thanks to several readers who sent me different versions of and/or links to this picture.

Yep. Sounds about right to me. Now, why the deafening silence from the mainstream media about that? Can it be that they've all been triggered by photographs and video of heterosexual cis-males, of all races, performing rescue and recovery work, competently, with nary a protester in sight?  (Heterosexual cis-females, too, of course;  but according to the alphabet-obsessed opposition, they're already traitors to their sex, even without being competent.  Sorry about that, ladies - but I'm delighted that you are!  Please continue!)

Peter

Doofus Of The Day #975

The video speaks for itself.

Yep.  Doofus.  (And boy, did he look sore when he lay down like that!  Couldn't have happened to a nicer person.)

Peter

Book news, and a Labor Day weekend sale

There are plenty of developments to report.

First, my fantasy novel, "King's Champion", published last week in e-book format, is now available in paperback as well.

The book has been moderately successful.  It's my first foray into the fantasy genre, so I'm pleased it's done so well.  I'll try a couple more in the genre over the next year or two, and see if I can carve out a niche for myself there, as I've done in military science fiction novels.  The reviews of my first fantasy novel have been very favorable, with twelve 5-star, eight 4-star and one 3-star at the time of writing, which is very gratifying.  Here's one of my favorites:

I wish I had the skills to write the review this book deserves.

This novel fires at all levels. When I read Fantasy this book achieves what I desire most. I was amazed in what a rather short book by Fantasy standards achieved. Totally engaging plot and characters. It sweats the small stuff such as logistics without being boring. There is wisdom throughout and virtue is a dominant theme. There is redemption and sacrifice. So much to love.

Previously I had read only his two Westerns, a genre I don't normally read, and was impressed. This simply blew me away. I had never considered some of the commonalities before between Westerns and Fantasy, but I see this better now.

This is a great book which I will certainly re-read.

A review like that makes any author smile!  As for commonalities between the western and fantasy genres, yes, they're certainly there;  also between westerns and science fiction.  After all, the space opera sub-genre of SF (for example, in books, David Drake's RCN series, or the TV series "Firefly" and its movie spin-off "Serenity") has been described as "Westerns with rayguns and spaceships"!  That seems appropriate to me.

This weekend marks the fourth annual Labor Day weekend book sale from the authors at Mad Genius Club (including yours truly).  There are some great books on sale this weekend at reduced prices, so if you're looking for reading matter, this is a great time to browse the selections there.  As part of the sale, I'm offering my first science fiction novel, "Take The Star Road", at just 99c for the Kindle edition this weekend.  Here's what its new cover will look like, within a week or two, as Castalia House takes over the print edition (I'll be retaining rights to the e-book edition).

You'll see new covers appear in my blog sidebar, and on Amazon.com, for all of my Maxwell Saga series, as Castalia updates the print editions and I update the e-book editions to match.  I like what their cover artist has done, and I think you will, too.

I'll have a new book release announcement on Tuesday, September 5th, an anthology from a major publisher in which one of my stories appears.  I'm currently working on another story for a different anthology from the same publisher, and discussing a possible joint novel with one of their big-name authors as well.  I've already started work on the sixth volume of the Maxwell Saga, which I hope to publish in a couple of months' time;  and then it'll be the third and final volume of the Laredo War trilogy, for publication by Castalia House early next year.  There's no peace for the wicked, or for this author!

I'd appreciate your input on another matter.  I'm considering publishing more short fiction, either as stand-alone short stories (that might later be gathered into a collection), or as rewards for subscribers in a Patreon-type supporter network.  Would you be interested in reading such work?  I'm thinking about one every month, if I can get that right, as a supplement to my longer books.  I'd like to hear your views on that.  Please let me know in Comments to this post.

Finally, I'd like to appeal to all my readers.  If you've read any of my books, please leave an honest review of it/them on Amazon.com.  Reviews are the lifeblood of independent authors such as myself.  We rely on them to inform other potential readers, and help them decide whether or not to risk their entertainment dollars on our work.

Thank you all very much for your feedback and support!

Peter

Strength training: useful books and videos

Following my article yesterday about how Miss D. and I have started strength training, I received a number of questions asking where readers could learn more.

Extensive videos are provided at Mark Rippetoe's Web site, and on his YouTube channel.  Almost all of them are very helpful.  Here's an introductory video from the latter, from one of Mark's associates.

There are three books that I highly recommend.  The first is "Starting Strength: Basic Barbell Training", by Mark Rippetoe.

This covers all the basics of weight and barbell training, including instructions, warnings and detailed descriptions.

The second book is "The Barbell Prescription:  Strength Training for Life After 40".

This book "directly addresses the most pervasive problem faced by aging humans: the loss of physical strength and all its associated problems - the loss of muscle mass, bone mineral loss and osteoporosis, hip fractures (a terminal event for many older people), loss of balance and coordination, diabetes, heart disease related to a sedentary lifestyle, and the loss of independence".  I've found it even more valuable than the first in terms of addressing health issues I have to face every day.

The third book is "Practical Programming for Strength Training".

This book "details the mechanics of the process, from the basic physiology of adaptation to the specific programs that apply these principles to novice, intermediate, and advanced lifters".  It helps you develop your own training programs to apply the first two books to your lifestyle and needs.

The videos, and those three books, are just about all you need to get started;  but, if you can afford it, I do recommend the services of a personal coach for the first two to three months, to help you get your 'form' and technique right.  Injuries are usually the result of bad 'form' or incorrect technique, and I'd rather avoid them by getting things right, right from the start!  Certainly, Miss D. and I count our payment to our coach, Carmen, as an investment in ourselves.  She's great!

Peter

Post-eclipse and post-Harvey thoughts on emergency preparations

Following the traffic chaos during and after the solar eclipse last week, and the damage and destruction wrought by Hurricane Harvey, I thought it might be worthwhile to do a "lessons learned" article, seeing what they confirm about my previous posts on emergency preparation, and whether they add anything new.

First, the eclipse.  In my article "Lessons learned from Hurricanes Katrina and Rita in 2005", I wrote about the hazards of trying to evacuate the danger zone when everyone else was trying to do the same thing.  Karl Denninger wrote about his experiences driving home after observing the eclipse, and came to very similar conclusions.

The return trip home was something else.  There was literally no movement over 25mph from Andersen SC southbound until we hit the 85/985 junction north of Atlanta and plenty of time spent at walking speed or less.  You probably could have bicycled faster.  Worse, attempting to re-route around it manually was pointless; all the state highways and similar were also jammed solid and worthless to try to use as alternative routes.  During this time there was no congestion of any sort evident in any of the northbound lanes.

The mapping apps all said there were wrecks everywhere although we never saw one; by the time we got to wherever it had been flagged the wreck was long-gone but the impact remained for the entire rest of the day and evening.  Cellular data was worthless or extremely spotty until, once again, we hit Atlanta metro. Voice calls and text messages were fine, but not data; the networks were simply slammed well beyond capacity.

. . .

Let me further remind you that it was nearly 100F out on that highway too with zero cloud cover for most of the journey.  My Mazda has an excellent AC system and while it was keeping up it wasn't digging it. What's in your go-bag? There better be drinkable water in there and a means to purify more of it, because at that temperature you're going to go through a hell of a lot of it in a really big hurry.  Oh, let me remind you that water weighs 8lbs/gallon and I'm willing to bet that had we needed to bail a gallon per person would have likely been consumed in a few hours.  In terms of water demand it probably would get close to (if not exceed) what I experienced while hiking out in the Grand Canyon on Kaibab South - brutal, in other words.

Next, consider what happens if someone else didn't have water and you do?  Got anything effective to defend that water supply with and are you willing to use it?

Finally, how are you physically?  Could you get out of that car, get away from the highway by a good quarter-mile or more and actually make time on foot, even if slowly, in that situation, toward somewhere safe?  Oh, and where is "somewhere safe" in relationship to where you are?

Better have "yes" answers to the above because if not you would be a corpse.

. . .

You got a freebie lesson in this regard if you ran into even a fringe of it, in terms of exactly how under-capacity our so-called "infrastructure" is in response to even relatively minor loads and under friendly terms.  In short our so-called "civilization" is nothing more than a thin veneer over a really ugly reality, protected by nothing more than the fact that over the last 150 years it has never been challenged on the ground by heavy load during an ugly natural or man-made incident over any sort of materially-wide area.

Think Katrina times 100 and you might be getting close.

If it ever is challenged that infrastructure will collapse instantly and trap you.

There's more at the link.

Those are very sobering thoughts . . . but they're true.  I saw them reflected in my part of the world just yesterday.  Gasoline supplies are drying up fast;  we had reports that Midland and parts of San Antonio were already out of gas altogether.  As a result, panic buying ensued at local gas stations.  People were pulling up in pickup trucks, towing trailers loaded with one, or two, or a few 55-gallon gasoline drums, and filling them all, hundreds of gallons at a time.  As a result, gas stations that normally get supplies once or twice a week were running out within hours of receiving their latest shipment of fuel.  I expect that sometime today (Friday), many local gas stations will close down.  Those who still need gas will be S.O.L.  That applies particularly to traffic heading through this area to other major centers.  Yesterday afternoon, vehicles were turning off Interstates and regional roads whenever and wherever they could, to fill their tanks at local gas stations before going on, because they had no idea whether they'd be able to do so later that evening or this morning.  Panic buying was the order of the day.

Another example came from Walmart yesterday morning.  I was in a local branch when store managers started coming around to every till, explaining that the card payment system had gone down "company-wide".  Those who were buying with cash or by check could do so;  all others could not have their payments processed, and would have to wait until operations were restored.  Fortunately, I had sufficient cash on me to pay for my purchases, so I wasn't inconvenienced;  but the screams of outrage from those relying on debit, or credit, or EBT cards, were epic.  Yet another example of why it pays to keep a couple of hundred dollars on you at all times, just in case.  (Don't carry bills larger than $20 - many businesses won't accept them, for fear of counterfeit currency.)

Evacuations before and during Hurricane Harvey also echoed those 'lessons learned'.  We've read many reports about so-called 'price gouging', although some defend it as natural economics of supply and demand in action.  That's all very well, but if you're desperate to get to safety, and don't have enough money to fill your tank with gasoline that's suddenly priced much higher than normal, or to pay for a room at a hotel that's just tripled or quadrupled its rates, it's cold comfort!

As for personal security, we've read reports of criminals posing as government officials, trying to force people out of their homes so they could rob them.  Others have tried to rob rescuers of their boats and vehicles.  A curfew was proclaimed in Houston, in an attempt to stop looting of empty homes and businesses.  All this is very similar to what happened in New Orleans after Hurricane Katrina, as described in my "lessons learned" post and contemporary news reports - although the problems in Houston appear to have been rather less widespread and intense, for which thanks be to God.

In short, those who got clear of danger zones before Hurricane Harvey struck did well.  Those who kept emergency supplies at home, and were able to use them there while traffic was at a standstill and stores were closed, did well.  Those who did not get out in time, or did not have sufficient emergency supplies, did poorly.

I hope and trust all my readers will take these "lessons learned" to heart:

• Keep at least a couple of weeks' supply of emergency foodstuffs, medication and other needs on hand.  I strongly recommend at least 30 days' supplies;  up to 3 months would be better, because it gives you enough to share with family and friends if necessary (something I learned the hard way after Hurricane Katrina).  If you aren't sure what to keep on hand, refer to any of a large number of emergency supply checklists that are available.  This one from FEMA is a good starting point.
• Keep sufficient cash on hand to buy what you need when other methods of payment are not available.  I strongly recommend a minimum of one months' normal expenditure, in cash, stored in a safe place in your home, and never touched for normal use.  Reserve it for emergencies only, and if you have to draw on it, replenish it as soon as possible.  Even if you can't afford a month's worth of cash, set aside whatever you can.  It may be a life-saver.
• If you can store it safely outside your residence (e.g. in a locked garden shed, or something similar, to avoid the fire hazard), keep enough gasoline on hand to fill the tank(s) of your vehicle(s) at least once, so that you can remain mobile when normal supplies of gas run out or aren't available.  If evacuation is part of your emergency plan, keep at least two tanks' worth of gasoline on hand for every vehicle you may use for that purpose, and take it with you when you leave - gas stations may have run out by the time you reach them.  Treat it with a fuel stabilizer,  rotate it once every year (i.e. put the gas in your vehicle's tank and refill the storage containers with fresh gas), and don't waste it on casual use.  You never know when you might need it the hard way.
• If you plan to use propane or other forms of gas for emergency cooking, keep one or two cylinders of it in the same safe location as your fuel.  It's no good having emergency food supplies that need cooking, if you haven't made arrangements to cook them!  Don't expect firewood and charcoal to be available.  Everyone else will be looking for them, too.
• When the proverbial brown substance hits the rotary air impeller, and looters begin targeting your area, it's too late to look for a gun.  You need to already have on hand the means you'll need to protect your family and your home.  Local laws and regulations will affect your choice, of course;  but you need to make preparations now, so that when you need them, you'll have the necessary tools and supplies available, and the training required to use them effectively.  Don't leave it until the last minute.

All common sense measures . . . but we've just seen how many people lacked common sense, and were caught short when an emergency arose.  Let's not be like them.

Peter

Doofus Of The Day #974

Today's award goes to the pilot of a French Canadair CL-415 fire-fighting aircraft, who didn't pay enough attention to his course while refilling his tanks with water.  This happened on the Rhone river in Nimes, France, a few days ago.

That'll cost a fair amount to repair the wing, and the barge . . . not to mention the laundry bills for the crew's underwear!




Peter

Of strength training, disability, and coaches

About six weeks ago, Miss D. and I began strength training at the gymnasium owned by Mr. Strength Training himself, Mark Rippetoe.  He put us through a lengthy interview beforehand, checking our health histories, current state of body and mind, and so on, before deciding that yes, we were suitable candidates.  (He's very choosy about that.  If he doesn't think he can help you, or if he doesn't think you're serious, you won't be accepted as paying members of his gym.  It's refreshing to meet a man who puts principle above money.)

In the six weeks since then, we've made what is, for us, amazing progress.  Bear in mind that I have a fused spine and a permanently damaged left sciatic nerve, and I'm in pain 24/7/365.  Miss D. has suffered several shoulder dislocations (a genetically-inherited weakness she'd as soon do without), and a few years ago, her right knee was the meat in a two-car sandwich, resulting in it being not so much broken as shattered.  Neither of us is in very good shape physically, and following doctors' advice and prescriptions over the past few years has made us worse, not better.  We both struggle with weight issues (me in particular), and as for physical therapy . . . let's just say neither of us was satisfied with the results we were getting.

Our personal coach, Carmen, has been working with us for one to two hours a day, three days every week.  We've more than tripled the weight we're lifting in the various exercises, and she's been very good indeed about working with (and around) our respective disabilities, trying to get us the maximum benefit from the exercises we can do, and putting off until later those we simply can't manage for the time being.  She's also modified exercises to accommodate our weaknesses.  For example, given my damaged nerve and fused spine, and the balance issues they cause, I simply can't do squats in the textbook fashion;  so she's having me do box squats (demonstrated by Mark Rippetoe in the video below), using a stool as a halfway point.  (The gymnasium shown in the video is where we train.)

For deadlifts, I can't bend forward far enough (partly due to my fused spine, partly due to my over-large belly getting in the way!), so Carmen's having me do a modified rack pull instead, where the bar is supported on cross-rails, meaning that I don't have to bend so far.  I'll try progressing to the full deadlift if and when my flexibility and balance have sufficiently improved.  (The rack pull is illustrated here:  skip forward to 8m. 10s. to see it in action.)

I'm finding it interesting to compare traditional strength training approaches to the modifications needed to accommodate my disabilities.  I doubt very much whether I'll ever approach the weights lifted by those who've done these exercises for years, because I expect I'd have bits of titanium straps and screws erupting out of my back if I tried!  Nevertheless, I can work up to a lower weight limit, then do more repetitions at that level, instead of trying to constantly increase the weight.  In the same way, I'm going to combine dieting with strength training, so as to shed weight faster.  That's anathema to most strength training coaches, because they point out (quite accurately) that building muscle mass and tone is the opposite goal to weight loss, and incompatible with it.  Well, I have to do both, whether I like it or not, so I'm going to have to modify my program accordingly;  but if I'm careful, and plan intelligently, I should be able to accomplish both things over time.  It'll probably work out to one week every month using a liquid (water) fast, and the rest of the month, eating a protein-heavy diet to promote muscle mass gain while doing strength training.  We'll see how it goes.

Suffice it to say that Miss D. and I are very pleased with the progress we've made so far.  I'm already seeing improvements in the way I sit, stand and move.  My pain levels have not decreased, and I don't think they will;  but if I can increase my core stability to the point where I can move more freely, that'll be a big plus in itself.

If you've never considered strength training before, I highly recommend that you look into it.  You'll find a lot of material, including video clips, at Mark Rippetoe's Web site.  I highly recommend taking some time to visit there and browse through the material.  From my own experience, I think the discipline offers real benefits to those prepared to invest their time and energy in it, and take it seriously.

It doesn't matter how old or out-of-condition you may be.  To illustrate that, here's 91-year-old Virginia Rizen, who trains at the same gym as ourselves.  (Her coach, Carmen, is our coach too.)

Peter

Elect politicians to spend money (on you) that you haven't got, then demand a free ride

That appears to be the situation in Puerto Rico at present.

Hundreds of Puerto Ricans took to the streets of the island's capital on Wednesday to protest austerity measures as anger builds over an unrelenting economic crisis that has hit the working class especially hard.

Protesters clutched posters decrying austerity measures including new taxes, increases in utility bills and looming furloughs and cuts to a public pension system facing nearly $50 billion in liabilities.

"They're taking advantage of us poor workers. We did not steal. We are not corrupt," read one poster held up by 70-year-old Eva Feliciano, a retired government worker who said she sometimes cannot afford to buy the groceries she and her husband need.

There's more at the link.

The trouble is, those protesters refuse to recognize that they bear the ultimate responsibility for Puerto Rico's economic shambles.  For decades, they voted for politicians who borrowed money (i.e. issued bonds) to pay for essential services, rather than tax the residents of the island.  Those residents were more than happy to take the services and keep their money . . . but eventually, as always happens, the bills came due.  For various reasons (mostly blamed by Puerto Ricans on the US government, rather than their own spendthrift ways), Puerto Rico's debt has ballooned.  The New York Times summarizes:

Puerto Rico’s public debt has ballooned because of a failing economy and an inefficient government that has spent more than it has taken in for years, often borrowing to close the gap.

Much of the borrowing is in the form of municipal bonds. As the size of the debt grew, so did the complexity, with some branches of government issuing bonds on behalf of others, or backstopping each others’ debts, until it became nearly impossible to keep track of it all. Even then, demand for Puerto Rico’s bonds was strong because they pay interest that is tax-exempt in all jurisdictions.

In addition, Puerto Rico owes billions more in pensions to retired public workers.

1990s

The government created a health insurance program for low-income people in 1994, but did not establish a way to pay for it. In 1996, Washington started phasing out a tax break for American companies with subsidiaries on the island, removing a significant driver of economic growth.

2000

Bond debt: $24 billion.
Unfunded pensions: $7 billion for the three main funds, for teachers, judges and general employees.

2014

Bond debt: $72 billion.
Unfunded pensions: $34 billion.

The island’s credit was downgraded well into junk range. Even so, Puerto Rico managed one last bond sale, oversubscribed at $3.5 billion.

May 2017

Bond debt: Still about $72 billion, because Puerto Rico has lost market access.
Pensions: $49 billion.

Again, more at the link.

It's perhaps comforting to think that Puerto Rico's problems are unique . . . but they're not.  More than a few US states are in equally dire financial straits.  They appear either unwilling or unable to do anything about them, too.  For example, just this week, Kentucky was warned that its state pension system was in terrible trouble, and had to be fixed now, rather than patched up yet again.

An independent consultant recommended sweeping changes Monday to the pension systems that cover most of Kentucky’s public workers, creating the possibility that lawmakers will cut payments to existing retirees and force most current and future hires into 401(k)-style retirement plans.

Echoing a message often repeated by Governor Matt Bevin, the PFM Group told the Public Pension Oversight Board that lawmakers must make dramatic changes to fix one of the worst-funded pension systems in the country.

“This is the time to act,” said Michael Nadol of PFM. “This is not the time to craft a solution that kicks the can down the road.”

The group, which was hired by Bevin, offered only recommendations. Any changes to the pension system would come during a potential special legislative session in October.

If the legislature accepts the recommendations, it would effectively end the promise of a pension check for most of Kentucky’s future state and local government workers and freeze the pension benefits of most current state and local workers.

. . .

Nadol said changing the benefits of current employees and retirees is the only way to significantly reduce Kentucky’s pension liability.

“All of the unfunded liability that the commonwealth now faces is associated with folks that are already on board or already retired,” he said. “Modifying benefits for future hires only helps you stop the hole from getting deeper, it doesn’t help you climb up and out on to more solid footing going forward.”

More at the link.

Kudos to Kentucky's governor, senate president and house speaker, who commissioned the study and said bluntly, "We will not kick the can down the road. We were elected to fix this problem and we will. The fiscal abuse of Kentucky’s retirement systems is over."  However, (unsurprisingly) the recommendations met instant resistance from state workers and pensioners, and from state politicians whose elections depend on the votes of those workers and pensioners.

Many other US states are in similarly dire financial straits.  The Mercatus Center at George Mason University provides annual fiscal rankings for all 50 states, and rates Kentucky as 47th out of 50;  but that still means three states (Massachusetts, 48;  Illinois, 49;  and New Jersey, 50) are in worse shape.  You can read the rankings here, with details for each state.

Puerto Rico is one of several fiscal 'canaries in the coal mine'.  We can mock its citizens for protesting a situation for which they're largely responsible, but there are far too many US states in a similar mess.  I don't know what the outcome for Puerto Rico will be, but I'm pretty sure that at least some US states will be effectively bankrupt before very long.  That's not going to be pretty for those living there, who are going to see their taxes rise, services become less efficient and less available, and the economy of the state in general take a pounding.

Peter

A song of the weather . . .

. . . for those getting blasé about Hurricane Harvey.  This is from British entertainers Flanders and Swann.

There.  That should cheer up Houstoners!




Peter

Wow!

My thanks to several readers who sent me the link to a tweeted picture from Ken Webster Jr.  Here's a reduced-size version of it, and of a comparison image from the same thread.  Click each image for a larger view.  They show Interstate 10 near Winnie, Texas, between Houston and Beaumont, near the location shown by the red icon on the map.

I know that road very well.  I traveled it many times when I lived and worked in Louisiana, between 1997 and 2009.  Looking at that water . . . it's mind-boggling.  That's not just standing flood water.  Those are waves, like one would expect to find offshore!  It looks as if the whole of the McFaddin National Wildlife Refuge is under water.  There won't be much wildlife left there by now . . .

The remnants of Hurricane Harvey have now come ashore once again on the Texas-Louisiana border, and are expected to track north-east across the state into Mississippi and Tennessee over the next couple of days.  Alexandria/Pineville, where I used to live and work, appears to be right in the path of the storm, and they're expecting heavy rain there over the next couple of days.

Prayers for all concerned.

Peter