Oh, this is tasty stuff . . .
Conservative Tree House is, admittedly, right-wing in orientation; but its analysis of Hillary Clinton's purported 'jump' in the opinion polls is pretty darned accurate as far as I can see (and I've got three years of statistics at under- and post-graduate level under my belt).
You have probably seen the latest example of the media claiming a released presidential poll from NBC and The Wall Street Journal as an example of Hillary Clinton expanding to an 11 point lead in the weekend following the “controversial” leaked tape of Donald Trump.
The claim is complete and utter nonsense. Here’s the proof.
. . .
Transparently the poll is manipulated with: a) a small sample (500); and b) the following ideological make-up:
- Republican and Republican leaners 36%
- Democrat and Democrat leaners 43%
. . .
- Independents 12%
However, the polling sample is the least of the issues for this deconstruction.
Arguing about the construct or methodology of the poll is typically what most people do when they are refuting a media poll. That aspect alone is not the big story.
Look at the polling organization ... Do you see: Hart Research Associates/Public Opinion Strategies?
. . .
Mr. Geoff Garin, the President of Hart Research and Associates”, is currently working as “a strategic adviser for Priorities USA in support of Hillary Clinton’s election“. Gee, I wonder why the media never tells us that part?
. . .
Wait, we’re not even close to finished. It gets better.
Let’s take a look at the recent financial connection between, Geoff Garin, Hart Research Associates and Hillary Clinton’s Priorities USA Super-PAC. For that information we turn to FEC filings. What do they indicate?
. . .
- $220,500.00 in the month of September alone paid by Hillary Clinton’s Priorities USA Super-PAC to Hart Research Associates.
- The President of Hart Research Associates, Geoff Garin, is working for Hillary Clinton’s campaign.
- NBC (S Burke) and The WSJ (Murdoch) contact Geoff Garin (Hart Research Associates) for the post-debate poll data they will use on the day following the debate.
Do you see now how “media polling” works, and why we advise to ignore it?
- Hart Research Associates provides a small national poll sample (500) result, with skewed party internals, showing Hillary Clinton +11 points.
There's more at the link, complete with screen captures and other evidence.
This is precisely why I distrust the opinion polls currently showing Hillary Clinton far in the lead in the presidential race. I simply don't believe them. If they were correct, Donald Trump would not be attracting tens of thousands of people to attend his rallies, while Hillary Clinton attracts dozens or scores. I think the race is far narrower and closer than the polls are showing, and I think Donald Trump has a realistic chance of winning this election.
If you expect me to believe differently, show me solid, verifiable evidence that I can analyze and confirm for myself, proving that the opinion polls are correct. On the basis of the evidence above, I think those pushing the current polls are lying in their teeth.