I've reported several times on the supply chain logjam affecting distributors and retail stores in this country. I've also mentioned the need to increase our emergency and reserve supplies, and the steps I've taken to do that for my own family. I've mentioned Michael Yon's warnings about the need to stockpile food and essential supplies, most recently just last week:
I’ve loudly warning since January 2020 of PanFaWar. I’ve said a thousand times in the past 22 months to STOCK UP on items you need. First real of Prep Club is there is no Prep Club. I would not breathe a word of my preparations if it were not my responsibility to take a leadership roll at a time like this.
Prices will go up up up as shortages ripple across the earth. Actual shortages will coincide with devaluation of our money. One curve up, the other curve down. Crime will explode. One of the greatest dangers will be neighbors. Ask your cop friends.
In that same article, I mentioned a critical warning from the CEO of a Norwegian fertilizer company:
"I want to say this loud and clear right now, that we risk a very low crop in the next harvest," said Svein Tore Holsether, the CEO and president of the Oslo-based company. "I’m afraid we’re going to have a food crisis."
I hate to say this, but it looks as if both warnings may be coming true - and rather faster than we would like.
First, fertilizers. Bold, underlined text is my emphasis.
October saw much-needed recovery in the U.S. from the impacts of Hurricane Ida in August as U.S. Gulf production facilities continue to return online and the worst of the logistical woes appear behind us. However, sharp price increases on fertilizers abroad have motivated bull runs on nitrogen prices, including ammonia surpassing $1,100 per ton in the Midwest and urea barge prices surpassing both DAP and potash.
. . .
October saw enduring downtime for ammonia production as several U.S. Gulf nitrogen plants remained offline from Hurricane Ida ... Ammonia prices have skyrocketed in the Midwest ... [European] ammonia producers have curtailed operations as they combat high gas costs ... Urea price firmed significantly in October near month's end as the closure of the Upper Mississippi River to barges and surging prices overseas both helped to sustain the urea bull market which began in September ... October urea plant outages in the northern U.S., including plants at Port Neal (CF Industries) and Beulah (Dakota Gasification) and with chatter on reduced production at Wever (OCI), supported higher price in the upper Midwest.
There's much more at the link. It's largely technical supply-and-demand listings, but it illustrates the truth of that Norwegian CEO's warning. The fertilizer market is currently incapable of supplying enough product to meet demand - and that may affect next season's harvest quite appreciably, not just in the USA, but worldwide.
Next, the food supply chain. Here's a very interesting Twitter thread from someone claiming to be in a position to know what's going on in poultry plants. I can't verify that claim, but what he says sounds pretty authoritative. Make up your own mind. I've used a summary from Threadreader to make the thread easier to read.
THREAD - Food Supply Collapse
My family are currently in positions of plant manager and quality assurance manager in poultry plants. I can say for certain that the current situation is more dire than most people think- and we may see a near total collapse of the food supply.
Covid has thrown a wrench in every industry- especially food processing. Ranging from plant closures due to outbreaks and now government overreach with vaccine mandates.
The vaccine mandates in processing plants are not discussed at all, most likely due to the contempt our ruling class has for rural, working-class Americans.
The current situation with mandates is from multiple fronts: USDA inspectors and the factory workers. For context, USDA inspectors are federal employees that are paid for by processing plants and necessary for operation- without them these plants cannot run due to federal law.
Currently, there is a large shortage of inspectors. There are roughly 6,500 inspectors nationwide across all meat processing industries, with a roughly 500-700 inspector shortage. My family has been running into issues with these inspectors being stretched thin already.
The inspector at this Midwest plant is responsible for 3 total plants normally, but currently he is inspecting 9 total plants at the same time. This is dangerous for both the wellbeing of the inspector, but most importantly the quality of the food produced.
On top of that, the USDA is covering up their shortage. On their jobs page, they list a measly 57 openings for inspectors. They cover this up by only listing their positions for a week or two at a time to prevent people from realizing this dire shortage.
These inspectors have received a memo stating that they have until Friday, Nov. 19 to get vaccinated (despite the actual deadline being Dec. 4). The problem is that a sizable plurality of inspectors refuse to be bend to government vaccine mandates (roughly 25-35%).
If upwards of 35% of inspectors are fired come Dec. 4, we are looking at roughly 2,200 inspectors nationwide disappearing. This will be catastrophic. To be clear, I stand with those refusing and will fight with them.
Likewise, if a plant is stretched thin on quality assurance personnel to protect the quality of meat, that will lead to a complete shutdown of these plants until they can be fully staffed. We are looking at this being compounded with the inspector shortage.
If this happens, many plants will not be able to run. Meaning, no meat in the store and no food for children in public schools. Some of the biggest customers of the plant my family works at are public schools and prisons, as well as national chains.
This could result in children becoming malnourished at schools, as well as families having a very hard time putting food on the table. Now, how bad is the current situation, pre-mandate?
Managers at this plant have already had to jump on the line and help produce chicken due to lack of employees. This isn’t due to low pay or benefits- they stand as a beacon of hope and stability in the community. They value their workers but are on the verge of losing it all.
Likewise, corporate is already discussing sending corporate managers, including the CEO, to help relieve the already damaging constraints by working on the line with everyone else.
Only 25% of the plant is vaccinated, meaning the company will be forced to give weekly testing for all their locations, which will cost hundreds of thousands per year, or fire their hard-working employees.
If this plant, like hundreds of others across rural America, shut down it will be the final nail in the coffin of these towns and a total collapse of the food supply.
This is exacerbated by the fact that these employees oftentimes have no other skills besides working in food processing. Without this job, they won’t be able to feed their families and the towns they live in will die.
We are looking at a multi-dimensional planned disaster: people losing their jobs, food processing being destroyed and risking famine, and the total decimation of rural communities who rely on these jobs to support their families. It is completely avoidable, but they want this.
It doesn’t stop there: we are looking at a fertilizer shortage, with prices increasing 200% on ammonia. This spells disaster for family farms.
While this isn’t meant to serve as a doomsday prediction, I urge people to be prepared for potential supply chain collapse- especially regarding food. Please, protect yourself and your loved ones. They are trying to purposely destroy our food supply.
As stated above, most people do not hear about food processing plants (except regarding cyberattacks earlier this year). This is a huge blindside to the American consumer who may soon not be able to get any meat at all, let alone hyper-inflated priced meat.
We are facing a total disaster. If the mandate goes into effect, we are looking at hundreds of thousands of families losing their livelihoods and millions of people becoming malnourished. And its all planned.
As I said, I have no idea whether or not the author of the above thread is what he claims to be: but what he says dovetails very strongly with warnings from elsewhere. You'll have to decide for yourself whether or not to trust him.
I don't know whether the court order mandating that OSHA suspend the implementation of the Biden administration's COVID-19 vaccine mandate will affect the availability of staff or inspectors mentioned above. I would assume it should; but that depends on whether the Biden administration adheres to the court order, or simply ignores it. Given its predilection to ride roughshod over opposition in other areas, I'm not convinced it'll obey the court. I guess we'll see.
I certainly second the author's warning that "They are trying to purposely destroy our food supply ... its all planned." When I look at the damage the Biden administration has done to this country in less than a year, it's heartbreaking - and it's very obviously deliberate. An enemy, seeking to dismantle the economy of the United States, would find it hard to cause more harm to our essential industries than our own politicians have done in 2021.
Cast your mind back to this time in 2020, even with all the disruption and confusion caused by the first year of the COVID-19 pandemic, and things were infinitely better than they are now. Prices were lower, availability of necessities was much better, and our economy was running without too many glitches. Now? Normal operations are the exception rather than the rule - and it's all on the Biden administration, which is screwing up so comprehensively that I can't believe it's not deliberately planned. Nobody could do this much harm by accident or incompetence!
I reckon we're seeing the implementation of the Cloward-Piven strategy on a national scale. If the powers that be can disrupt the supply of essentials, forcing people to become more dependent on government to supply (and ration out to favored groups) what the markets cannot, then a centralized socialist economy will be created almost overnight, whether we like it or not - or so the moonbats think. The rest of us might have something to say about that, of course...
Batten down the hatches, folks. I think this is going to be a wild ride.
EDITED TO ADD: It's not just the food sector that appears to be encountering deliberate, planned failure. Eaton Rapids Joe reports on the nursing home where his mother is living:
I must admit that when people first started suggesting that our leaders were designing policies designed to make people fail, I thought they were wearing tin-foil hats.
I need to reconsider that position.
The manpower situation in the nursing home is dire. They are GUTTED for people. Toilets are backed up and not being fixed. And this is one of the three most highly rated nursing homes in a metro-area of 400k.
They are likely to lose another 30% of staff over the BS that fully vaccinated will soon mean three shots or four shots.
The Federal agencies are "remedying" the situation by adding levels of documentation and administrative overhead.
They are either engineering systems to implode or are pathologically stupid. Maybe both.
Makes you think, doesn't it?