What to expect during President Obama's second term

I've been trying to figure out the way things are likely to go during President Obama's second term.  I've tried to avoid hyperbole, emotion and partisanship, and base my analysis solely upon the facts of his first term, and the economic realities that currently prevail.  For what it's worth, here are my forecasts for the four years until the 2016 Presidential elections.

The US national debt will continue to increase.  When President Obama took office on January 20th, 2009, according to CBS News, it stood at $10.626 trillion.  Today, according to the US Treasury, it stands at $16.214 trillion - an increase of 52.6% in less than four years.  This has only happened because the Federal Reserve has aided and abetted the growth by 'printing money' to buy US Treasury bonds - 61% of all bonds sold during 2011, for example.  As Sovereign Man points out:

It took over 200 years for the US government to accumulate its first trillion dollars in debt. It took just 286 days to accumulate the most recent trillion (from $15 trillion to $16 trillion).

Last month alone, the first full month of Fiscal Year 2013, the US government accumulated nearly $200 billion in new debt– 20% of the way to a fresh trillion in just 31 days.

If this level of debt increase is repeated during President Obama's second term (and frankly I don't see how it can be avoided, given his expansion of the 'welfare state' and the lack of new sources of revenue to tap), the national debt will amount to approximately $25 trillion by the next presidential election.  Even if the growth rate is halved, it'll amount to more than $20 trillion - and I don't think it can be halved.  Given that the annual Gross Domestic Product of the entire world is currently reckoned to be in the $60-$70 trillion range, this will mean that the national debt of the USA alone will amount to approximately one-third of current global economic output . . . which is stark staring madness.  It's not sustainable by any stretch of the imagination.

This increase in national debt will be accompanied by an enormous increase in domestic taxation.  No less than 20 new or increased taxes were enacted as part of Obamacare.  Some have already taken effect, but the largest of them won't do so until next year.  If you think the fact their implementation was delayed until after yesterday's election was purely coincidental, I have this bridge in Brooklyn, NYC I'd like to sell you . . .  Over and above these taxes, President Obama has called for increased taxes on 'the rich' and on corporations (notwithstanding the fact that US companies are already amongst the most heavily taxed anywhere in the world).  I suspect he'll be able to get at least some of them through the Republican-controlled Congress.  That means those of us living in the USA are going to find our take-home pay reduced, even as inflation and other factors eat away at its buying power.

(Many people will suffer a worse reduction in income because of fewer hours of work.  One of the qualifiers in Obamacare is that employees working less than 30 hours per week are considered to be part-time, and don't have to be covered.  In response, many companies employing hourly-paid workers are already looking at ways to reduce their hours, to ensure that as few as possible of their staff work more than 30 hours per week.  That will save them a lot of money . . . but many of their workers will find their income cut by at least 25%.  Welcome to yet another side-effect of socialized health care!)

The overall economic condition of our federal government will continue to worsen - probably drastically.  Look at the economic conditions currently prevailing in those US states that have raised taxes, indulged in massive deficit spending, and expanded welfare programs and the role of the 'nanny state'.  Examples include California, Illinois, New York, Massachusetts, etc.  The State Budget Crisis Task Force considered six such states, and found them to be in a very poor fiscal condition.  The policies long followed in those states were very similar to those implemented by the Obama administration during its first term.  They're likely to be continued and further expanded during its second term - and will probably lead to similar results on a federal level, just as they've already done in the states that have applied them.

Inflation is likely to be a growing problem.  Forget the figures released periodically by the government.  We've discussed before how inaccurate they are - deliberately so, since they leave out of consideration such fundamental categories as fuel and food.  The figures produced by John Williams of Shadowstats are much more accurate, based as they are on far more inclusive measurements.  According to Mr. Williams, the real annual consumer inflation rate is closer to 10% in terms of 1980's measurement standards (which include many components and factors that were later excluded as part of politically-motivated 'improvements' to the statistics, introduced by subsequent administrations).  It's illustrated in the graph below (reproduced courtesy of Shadowstats).

If Mr. Williams' figures are correct (and I believe they are), we can expect consumer prices to increase by a minimum of 25% over the course of President Obama's second term.  I believe they'll go up much more than this, because inflation gains momentum as it increases.  I wouldn't be surprised to see the Consumer Price Index increase by 50% or more during the next four years.  If a global economic collapse occurs, leading to hyperinflation, that expectation may be ridiculously low.

The Fed's ongoing quantitative easing programs are likely to add to inflationary pressures, particularly by leading to further depreciation in the value of the dollar against foreign currencies (which will make imported goods more expensive in dollars).  Its efforts to keep interest rates low are helpful to banks and borrowers, but devastating to savers and those trying to live on interest income.  In particular, retired people find themselves caught between the rock of low interest rates (reducing their income from savings and investments, and reducing their pension providers' ability to increase pensions in line with inflation due to reduced interest income) and the hard place of rising prices (caused by inflation and a declining dollar).  They're going to be in for a very hard time over the next four years . . .

John Bagot Glubb, in his essay 'The Fate Of Empires' (link is to an Adobe Acrobat document in .PDF format), reminded us:

It is of interest to note that decadence is the disintegration of a system, not of its individual members. The habits of the members of the community have been corrupted by the enjoyment of too much money and too much power for too long a period. The result has been, in the framework of their national life, to make them selfish and idle. A community of selfish and idle people declines, internal quarrels develop in the division of its dwindling wealth, and pessimism follows, which some of them endeavour to drown in sensuality or frivolity. In their own surroundings, they are unable to redirect their thoughts and their energies into new channels.

. . .

Decadence is a moral and spiritual disease, resulting from too long a period of wealth and power, producing cynicism, decline of religion, pessimism and frivolity. The citizens of such a nation will no longer make an effort to save themselves, because they are not convinced that anything in life is worth saving.

By that measure, parts of these United States are verging on decadence today (bearing in mind that 'decadence' and 'decay' stem from the same root term).  I submit that the re-election of President Obama is evidence of that.  His first term was, indeed, one of 'cynicism . . . pessimism and frivolity'.  I expect no better of his second term.  The 'welfare state' and, in particular, the 'entitlement culture' are the modern expressions of social decadence - 'something for nothing' for anyone who wants it.

Some expect this ongoing decadence and decay to lead to social upheaval and revolution.  For example, Jack D. Douglas wrote today:

We're now in a lull before a vast, revolutionary storm.

. . .

The U.S. is now rushing downward along all vital dimensions of social life. If this continues much longer, the U.S. will simply implode and that will lead to vast social revolution or revolutions. But maybe the vast social revolution will come before implosion.

The one thing we can be sure of is that we have sunk so far so long and are now accelerating down so fast that this cannot continue long without producing an implosion or a vast social revolution.

I'm not so sure.  I don't foresee a sudden galvanic social upheaval (although one is possible if the economy collapses, I suppose).  Instead I expect a continued darkening of our outlook and our society, as if, on a bright sunny day, gathering clouds blocked out more and more of the sun, imposing gray gloom where there had previously been light and happiness.  I fear we're going to have a lot less of the latter, and a lot more of the former, over the next four years.

I'll be delighted if events prove me wrong . . . but I'm battening down the hatches for myself and those who are close to me, because I don't think I am.

Peter

Whither America?

So the elections are over, and it seems that President Obama has won re-election for a second term.  I'm sure the government of Russia is delighted - not to mention the governments of Iran, Egypt, China, Venezuela, and any other country that wants to get away with anything it can, and believes (probably correctly) that President Obama will do little or nothing to stop them.  Israel, on the other hand, now has little reason for restraint in dealing with Iran, since they know for sure they don't have a friend in the White House and can no longer rely on US support.

I've said on at least two occasions this year that it was irrelevant who would be elected President, as the winner of the election would find himself hamstrung by economic reality.  That remains true, IMHO.  Unfortunately, President Obama has shown over the past four years that he's more than capable of ignoring economic reality.  He's well on the way to bankrupting this country, and I suspect that by the end of his second term, that bankruptcy will have moved from threat to reality.  It's a grim prospect.

The most difficult thing for me to grasp is the collapse of honesty, integrity and moral courage in this country.  Look at it this way.

• In 1972 Watergate brought down President Nixon.  Public outrage at his behavior and subsequent dishonesty was so great that he had no choice but to resign.  Our politicians were still held to at least some standards of honesty and integrity.
• In 1998 Zippergate damaged, but did not destroy President Clinton.  He lied under oath about a sexual relationship, and was impeached (not for the relationship, please note, but for perjury).  He survived a Senate trial, which disgusted me at the time because his guilt (on the charge of perjury) was so clear as to be impossible to deny;  yet he was allowed to get away with this.  Instead of declaring that such mendacity was unacceptable in a President (any President), his supporters made flippant excuses that everyone was dishonest in sexual matters.  It was then I began to have serious doubts about the moral foundations of this nation.
• Now President Obama, a man who's lied in his teeth about so many issues that his lack of integrity is beyond question - and who's just sat back and tolerated the murder of four Americans at the US consulate in Benghazi, then lied about their deaths to cover up his own fecklessness - has been re-elected to office.  His dishonesty and calculated indifference didn't appear to cost him much, if any, support at the polls.

What does President Obama's re-election say about those who voted for him?  I can only conclude that they no longer care about honesty, integrity and moral courage.  They care more about electing someone who'll make them feel good, who'll soothe them with political platitudes and let them ignore reality, who'll continue to hand out benefits we can't afford at no cost to them.

Perhaps Mitt Romney's remark about 'the 47%' was right;  only by now it's probably more than 50%.  If that's the case . . . if more than half the US electorate feels that way . . . then this republic no longer has a future in its present form.  It will continue to exist, but as something very different to what our founding fathers intended, and what the Constitution was created to preserve and protect.  It will no longer be America as we know it.

Mark Steyn said a few months ago:  "This election represents the last exit ramp before the death spiral".  I hope he was wrong . . . but I fear he was all too correct, and that for all of us, the downward slope, relatively gentle until now, will rapidly become an ever-steepening, irreversible slide into political, social and economic collapse.

America couldn't have chosen a more suitable President to preside over that process.


*Sigh*


Peter

Doofi and their financial information

I was going to make this part of our Doofus Of The Day series, but there are so many offenders that it would be impossible to single out the worst of them.  Nevertheless, it's worth highlighting the problem.  The Telegraph reports:

Jack has a new debit card. I don’t know him. I’ve never met him. But I’ve seen his card number and I know where he lives. With a little more digging I could have all the information necessary to steal his identity. How? Because Jack took a picture of his new plastic and posted it on Twitter, where it was then retweeted by @needadebitcard. The account, which popped up in May, retweets images of credit and debit cards uploaded to the social network. Its purported aim is to shame users into being more careful, with its profile reading: “Please quit posting pictures of your debit cards, people.”

The option to customise debit and credit cards with your own choice of picture seems to have been a catalyst for this kind of over-sharing. Searching Instagram reveals plenty of clear card images. It seems some people simply can’t resist proudly showing off their choice of design to the world without thinking about the potential consequences. Foolish photographs uploaded to Twitter aren’t ever likely to be the biggest source of fraud, but they do highlight how stupidity easily undoes security measures.

. . .

Last year I was part of the team that worked on Wired UK’s Privacy Issue. The magazine sent customised covers out to selected subscribers and a long list of prominent individuals. It created them by collating data from many different sources including the edited electoral register, Companies House and social networks. Cross-referencing little nuggets of information allowed us to paint a thorough picture of an individual’s life.

That’s the key – it’s not usually any individual bit of personal information you reveal online that matters, but the way it may be collated with other confessions. With a credit card image, a mother’s maiden name discovered through searching Facebook and location data grabbed from Twitter, someone with malevolent intent could do quite a bit of damage.

There's more at the link.

I found it hard to believe people could be that stupid;  but a quick look at @needadebitcard and Instagram, as the article described, revealed untold numbers of offenders.  I can only imagine how many of them must get ripped off by scammers, then blame the bank and try to recover their lost funds - when in fact, the bank should be suing them for making it so easy for criminals to steal their money!




Peter

Old adversaries fly together

It's not often you see a US-built F-16 flying in formation with a Soviet-built MiG-21 fighter, but in August there were plenty to be found in the skies over Romania.  Lockheed Martin's Code One magazine reports:

More than 150 US Air National Guardsmen from the 187th Fighter Wing, the Alabama Air National Guard unit at Dannelly Field ANGB in Montgomery, deployed to Romania in August to participate in Dacian Viper 2012, a three-week joint exercise with the Romanian Air Force.

The Guard contingent, which included nearly twenty fighter pilots and eight F-16s, exercised with approximately 200 Romanian soldiers, technical staff, and pilots flying six MiG-21 Lancers [a version of the MiG-21 upgraded by Israel] at 71st Air Base, located near the town of Câmpia Turzii in the northwestern part of Romania.

The flying portion of Dacian Viper enhanced the tactical skills of the US and Romanian fighter pilots by providing an opportunity to perform common flight and training activities. The aerial missions also allowed for an exchange of experience on tactics, techniques, and procedures for basic fighter maneuvers, air combat maneuvers, intelligence, tactical command, and cross service logistics support.

The final days of the exercise focused on combined air operations, in which US forces partnered with Romania pilots to exercise common air operations procedures. “Both units benefitted from the joint training,” added Sparrow. “Exercises like Dacian Viper improve the integration between our nations. We were impressed with the proficiency and capabilities of the Romanian pilots. They are a lot like us.”

During the exercise, 100th Fighter Squadron pilots were allowed to fly in the back seat of the MiG-21s and Romanian fighter pilots were allowed to fly in the back seat of the F-16s.

There's more at the link.  Images are courtesy of the USAF - larger versions are available at the previous link.  There are many more photographs at the Dacian Viper 2012 Facebook page.

It brings back memories of the Cold War to see two former adversary aircraft flying together like that.  When they faced each other in combat in the Middle East, the F-16 outperformed the MiG-21 on almost every occasion.  I'd be interested to find out how much the Israeli upgrades to the Soviet aircraft improved its performance during the exercise.

Peter

Mind-boggling billboard of the week

It was a real 'WTF???' moment when I found this among the entries for the Telegraph's latest weekly 'Sign Language' competition.  The picture was taken in Ontario, Canada.

Not sure I'd buy one of those . . . even if I was desperate!  There are more (and larger) images at the link.





Peter

Looking forward to 'The Hobbit'

Despite my reservations about Peter Jackson's decision to expand 'The Hobbit' from a two- to a three-part movie, incorporating material from elsewhere in the Tolkien canon, I'm greatly looking forward to the first part of the movie when it's released next month.  Here's the last of the production videos, including footage shown at Comic-Con in San Diego earlier this year.

For those who haven't seen it yet, here's the latest trailer for the movie.

Finally, Air New Zealand has produced an in-flight safety movie using characters, costumes and themes from 'The Hobbit'.  It's a lot of fun.

Roll on, December!  Miss D. and I have a movie date!

Peter

Terrified terrorists?

Courtesy of a link from reader Snoggeramus, I couldn't help but chuckle at this report.

A crocodile lurking in the sewers has been terrorizing locals in [a] small city in the northern Gaza Strip, according to a report.

Rajab al-Ankah, head of the Northern Gaza Sewage Station in Beit Lahia, said the five-and-a-half foot sewer croc most likely escaped from a nearby zoo as a baby and has avoided capture for more than two years, Al Arabiya news reported.

. . .

Locals in Beit Lahia ... said the croc slaughtered a farmer’s two goats that were grazing too close to the sewers.

The beast slips out of the sewage basins to hunt for food, and scurries back underground, evading captors, Ankah said.

There's more at the link.

I certainly feel sympathy for the local residents;  but given that the Hamas government of Gaza is as terrorist an organization as exists anywhere in the world, I can only consider it highly appropriate that there's now a creature-in-residence to terrify them!  I wonder how serious a mistake has to be before the official making it gets 'volunteered' to go catch the croc?





Peter

Post-election violence?

Writing in the Washington Times, Jeffrey Kuhner notes threats from various sources of post-election violence if President Obama isn't re-elected.

Last weekend, thousands of pro-Obama Twitter account users vowed to start a race war if Mr. Obama is not re-elected. Many pledged to burn down homes and shops. Laden with obscenities and racist language against whites, the tweets reveal the radical left’s anti-democratic, thuggish nature. “If Obama don’t [sic] win lets [sic] start a riot so Romney know [sic] what he’s getting himself into,” wrote one. Another tweet stated: “If Romney wins im [sic] goin [sic] on a rampage.” There were countless such threats, most of them much more vile, graphic and chilling — not fit for publication in a newspaper.

. . .

The establishment media’s hypocrisy is stunning. Imagine if the situation were reversed: Three weeks prior to the election, thousands of Romney supporters threatened to not only riot, but also assassinate the president should their candidate lose. The national uproar would be deafening. The New York Times, the Washington Post, National Public Radio, the Associated Press, along with Democratic media hacks such as Chris Matthews, Rachel Maddow, Brian Williams, Katie Couric, Diane Sawyer, Bob Schieffer, David Gregory and Wolf Blitzer (and many others) would be screaming for Mr. Romney and the GOP to disavow those comments. They would be right. Yet now, when it comes to threats against Mr. Romney, there is only silence.

There's more at the link.

I agree with him that the hypocrisy is breathtaking;  but I don't think this will be a widespread problem in more civilized parts of the country.  In cities and states where the so-called 'entitlement class' is deeply rooted, it may well develop into a local crisis;  but the rest of us are ready, willing and able to deal with it if it should arise nearby.

(Image received via e-mail: source and copyright unknown)

Anyone who tries to start a riot in my area is more than likely to be rapidly disabused of his notions by the local citizenry, with or without the assistance of local law enforcement!  This, of course, is as it should be in a properly civilized society, where citizens can be trusted to look after each other.

Peter

An aviation milestone

In an unique aviation milestone, Boeing has just delivered the 7,370th 737 airliner to be manufactured - a 737-800 model, to be precise - to Lion Air of Indonesia.  It's shown below (image courtesy of Boeing) on a test flight.

Boeing adds that total orders for the 737 now exceed 10,100, including over 700 for the new Max models (which are still under development).  I'm sure those who designed the first 737, back in the 1960's, never thought it would go on to become such a mainstay of commercial aviation.

Aviation Week's 'Things With Wings' blog provides the following significant model number anniversaries for Boeing:

• The 707th Boeing 707 was delivered in May 1968.
• The 727nd Boeing 727 was delivered in June 1969.
• The 737th Boeing 737 was delivered in February 1981.
• The 747th Boeing 747 was delivered in August 1989.
• The 757th Boeing 757 was delivered in May 1997.
• The 767th Boeing 767 was delivered in October 1999.
• The 777th Boeing 777 was delivered in April 2009.

I've flown aboard all those models.  The only 'Boeing' I've never boarded is the 717, which isn't really a Boeing airplane at all.  It's the model number Boeing assigned to the McDonnell Douglas MD-95 (the third generation of what began as the Douglas DC-9, a contemporary of the early Boeing 737) when it bought the latter company in 1997.

Congratulations to Boeing on yet another milestone.  I have no idea how many 737's will eventually be sold, but if it reaches 20,000 someday, I won't be surprised.

Peter

Busting union thugs

There's a very encouraging story at Philadelphia magazine about how two brothers fought back against union thuggishness and intimidation - and won - using technology and publicity.  Here's an excerpt.

Until this year, getting something built in Philly meant meeting union demands. No one had dared to challenge the power of this city’s Building and Construction Trades Council, a consortium of nearly three dozen unions representing 45,000 people. Then Matt and Mike Pestronk undertook the renovation of the old Goldtex ladies’ shoe factory in the Loft District part of the city, a 10-story building they planned to convert into 163 apartments.

A $38 million project, the Goldtex deal is just the sort of high-profile, good-money job this city’s unions have held a lock on since—well, forever. But the Pestronks first did the unusual: They bid the job out to both union and non-union contractors. Then they did the unthinkable: They awarded union contractors just 40 percent of the deal, including demolition and electrical work. The rest isn’t history so much as history in the making.

The unions responded to the Pestronks fiercely, declaring a mixed site of union and non-union workers a “disaster” and refusing what work they were offered. “All or none” went the battle cry, a herald of time-tested tactics.

As early as January, protesters began passing out fliers, chanting, and marching with signs. Eventually they blocked delivery trucks hauling in materials and equipment. They harassed non-union counterparts, daring them to fight. A few times, push came to shove. They poured oil across the site’s entrance. They printed fliers with a photo of Matt Pestronk’s wife superimposed with an erect penis and the oddly oblique message “Carrie Pestronk likes to get hard with it.”

They planted caltrops, old-school union contraptions made of nails and designed to flatten tires. And they uttered nasty, brutish threats. The brothers say that Building Trades business manager Pat Gillespie told them that unless they hired an all-union workforce, the project would “never get built.” Another time, as Michael Pestronk entered the worksite, voices cried out among the protesters: “You’re dead!”

There’s more, but all of it is typical of the rough-and-tumble sport of Philadelphia development. What was new was the response. Instead of cowering or capitulating, the Pestronks used batteries of video cameras to record the activities of picketing union members, which they posted online at YouTube and a website they dubbed “phillybully.com.” And the effect was galvanic.

For many years, Building Trades has been criticized—usually in fearful whispers—for stifling development and economic growth, shutting out new investors, and undermining this city’s entire political process. But the videos shot and posted by the Pestronks provided something to go with all those allegations: evidence. Footage of leering, chuckling union men spitting profanities—so afraid of losing what they have, they can’t see what they’ve become.

Since the first videos went up in spring, the tide of public sentiment has turned, and the Pestronks won a court order restricting the picketers’ behavior. But in coming years, the Goldtex battle and the techniques employed there may be seen in grander, historical terms: as the moment that started the unraveling of Building Trades’ vast economic and political power, and perhaps of Philadelphia’s entire power structure.

So this is a story about more than how new-school technology defeated old-school bully tactics. It’s a story about how a single apartment building, and the two guys who wanted to build it, created the opportunity for an entire city to come unstuck in time.

There's much more at the link.  Interesting, encouraging and recommended reading.

I wish more people would stand up to thuggishness like this!  I'm not anti-union - in fact, I've twice belonged to trades unions, and have found that membership very useful on occasion - but I'm firmly against the protectionist, arm-twisting, self-interested behavior indulged in by some of them.  That sort of union - and its members - need to be brought to heel, at once if not sooner.  Kudos to the Pestronk brothers for their initiative in this case, and to Philadelphia magazine for publishing the story.

I'd also like to point out that union behavior like this appears to routinely occur only in cities and/or states dominated by union-dominated political machine(s).  If workers tried this in the city where I live now, they and their union(s) would find themselves in very serious trouble indeed, almost certainly involving (at the very least) both criminal and civil charges.  More . . . er . . . robust reactions to such provocation could not be ruled out.  That's one of the reasons I like it here.

(Oh - and do take the time to check out Phillybully.com, if you're so inclined.  The reports - and particularly the videos - are infuriating!  I can only assume that the Philadelphia police are at least 'comfortable' with the union, due to their frequently-illustrated lack of decisiveness in acting against the perpetrators.  Note, too, the union's deliberate defiance of court orders.)

Peter

In lieu of the canceled New York Marathon . . .

. . . here's a video clip about what's billed as 'the hardest 400-meter run in Europe':  the Red Bull 400.  Held on a ski slope during summer, The Adrenalist described it as follows:

From the starting line at the base of the jump to the finish at the top, the course covers 400 meters and includes 180 meters of vertical gain. That equals an average gradient of about 45% or an angle of ascent of about 24 degrees, a pretty typical slope found on standard staircases. Cover that slope with slippery grass and stretch it the length of four football fields and now you’re talking tough.

I don't think I'll be tackling that anytime soon . . . but if you'd like to try it next time, see the event's Web page for details.  We'll eagerly await word of how you did!





Peter

Quotable quotes about Hurricane Sandy

The weeping and wailing and gnashing of teeth continues.  From someone in Staten Island, New York:

Domingo Isasi, waiting in a gas line on Staten Island, minced no words about the divide he perceived between Manhattan and the outer boroughs.

"The priorities are showing, simply by the fact that Manhattan got their power back," he said, adding that Staten Islanders are used to being lower on the list. "We're the bastard kids who keep getting slapped in the head and told to shut up," he said.

Clearly, he's never figured out that if you live on - wait for it - AN ISLAND, and you lack your own power station, then the power lines have to reach you from places off the island.  That means the neighborhoods through which those lines run will inevitably get power before you do, because the lines running to and through them will have to be fixed before repair crews can do your neighborhood any good.  That's not discrimination - it's geography.  However, I suspect Mr. Isasi's mind is made up, and he won't want to be confused with the facts . . .

I fear New Yorkers have a different definition of 'uninhabitable' to many of us.  Governor Cuomo is quoted as having said:

"People are in homes that are uninhabitable ... It's going to become increasingly clear that they're uninhabitable when the temperature drops and the heat doesn't come on."

Mr. Cuomo, I have news for you.  If your property becomes uninhabitable just because the power's out, it's not the fault of the power company;  it's the fault of whoever failed to properly build and insulate your home - plus, it's your fault for not rectifying those deficiencies long ago!  This isn't rocket science.  We've known for a very long time how to properly construct and insulate buildings.  If those standards are still not in common use in New York City, whose fault is that?  Even if the building is cold, you can still shelter in it.  Just bundle up to keep warm, huddle together in a single room to share body heat (and close off the other rooms to conserve the warmth in the shared one), improvise heat sources (always providing adequate ventilation if open flames are involved), and so on.  Shelters can be set up to provide warmth (even tents will do, if they have forced-draft ventilation).

Perhaps the quote of the week concerning Sandy comes from fellow blogger Acair Fearann:

"The blogosphere is apparently composed of an equal number of Manhattanites claiming the world ended and Midwesterners/Texans claiming the world didn’t end and anyway if it had they would have dealt with it better than those wimpy Yanks who are stupid enough to live in a city.  California is oddly silent."

Peter

World's most 'invasive' nation?

According to the Telegraph, that would be Britain.

Every [British] schoolboy used to know that at the height of the empire, almost a quarter of the atlas was coloured pink, showing the extent of British rule.

But that oft recited fact dramatically understates the remarkable global reach achieved by this country.

A new study has found that at various times the British have invaded almost 90 per cent of the countries around the globe.

The analysis of the histories of the almost 200 countries in the world found only 22 which have never experienced an invasion by the British.

. . .

The analysis is contained in a new book, All the Countries We've Ever Invaded: And the Few We Never Got Round To.

Stuart Laycock, the author, has worked his way around the globe, through each country alphabetically, researching its history to establish whether, at any point, they have experienced an incursion by Britain.

Only a comparatively small proportion of the total in Mr Laycock's list of invaded states actually formed an official part of the empire.

The remainder have been included because the British were found to have achieved some sort of military presence in the territory – however transitory – either through force, the threat of force, negotiation or payment.

Incursions by British pirates, privateers or armed explorers have also been included, provided they were operating with the approval of their government.

So, many countries which once formed part of the Spanish empire and seem to have little historical connection with the UK, such as Costa Rica, Ecuador and El Salvador, make the list because of the repeated raids they suffered from state-sanctioned British sailors.

. . .

The only other nation which has achieved anything approaching the British total, Mr Laycock said, is France – which also holds the unfortunate record for having endured the most British invasions.

There's more at the link, including a list of the 22 fortunate nations that have unaccountably escaped England's invasive tendencies - thus far, at any rate . . .

The report reminds me of a joke that circulated in South Africa several decades ago.

Q:  Why do people say that 'the sun never sets on the British Empire'?

A:  Because God would never trust an Englishman in the dark!

Peter

Most of us probably feel this way by now!

I can only sympathize . . .

Peter

Doofus Of The Day #653

Today's winner is from Detroit, Michigan.

Leonard Turner, a 47-year-old former middleweight boxer, had pulled into the [gas] station to put air in his tire ... he was approached by a gun-wielding man later identified as Brian Hardman of Detroit.

"I was squatting near the tire and he comes up and says, 'I ain't trying to rob you — but give me what you got, and tell that (expletive) to get out of the car," Turner testified during Hardman's preliminary exam in 36th District Court.

"I grabbed his arm and threw him to the ground," Turner said, adding that he was able to grip Hardman's trigger finger and force him to discharge the gun.

"After I shot the gun off until it was empty, I grabbed it from him," Turner said. "He got up and said, 'Give me my gun back; I got a CCW.' Then I hit him with the gun."

There's more at the link.

Sounds like what shooting instructor Massad Ayoob describes as "a sudden and acute failure of the victim selection process"!





Peter

Government spending, fiat currency and systemic collapse

Writing from Mexico, analyst Hugo Salinas Price has published two articles that I think express very well the political and economic reality that's looming over us like a tsunami.

In the first, 'The house has burned down', he analyzes Europe's current dilemma and points out that it applies equally to many other countries, including the USA.  Here's an excerpt.

In 1999 the Euro was installed as the single currency for a central group of European nations. The interest rates of the various nations were to be set by “diktat” of the European Central Bank. No nation was to be allowed to have a Fiscal Deficit of more that 3% of GNP.

Thus was set up the orgy of government and private sector borrowing and spending on the part of the hot-blooded nations of Europe, that is to say those that form the “Club Med” of Europe: Greece, Italy, Spain, Portugal, with the participation of Ireland and even France. Never were seen nor dreamt of in dreams such low interest rates and such easy credit in those nations.

The spending was gigantic. Never was Europe so happy. The governments showered benefits upon the governed. Life was pleasant, free of worries. The good life was assured: modern housing, autos (his and hers), free education for the kids, medical and hospital insurance, generous pensions for early retirement, a monthly check in case of unemployment; in Italy, three months’ vacations. The standard of living in Europe was the wonder of the world.

What nobody saw, was that the Europeans were burning their financial house down while they went on vacations, munched their tasty “hors d’oeuvre” and washed them down with delicious wine ... Europe burnt down its house when its governments and private sectors took cheap credits in gigantic quantities and spent the funds on current expenditures to please the people with benefits and services, on maintaining a bloated bureaucracy in comfort, and on unprofitable investment projects.

. . .

It’s not only the European house that has burnt down. Right here in our own back yard, the US house is on fire and burning brightly; the Americans who live in the US house have still not quite caught on; the people in MSM are doing their best to keep expectations up. But sooner or later the fact will be self-evident. Watch for teepees being set up.

There's more at the link.

In the second article, 'Reflections on the effects of War as compared to the effects of Fiat Money', he claims that fiat currency has been as devastating as armed conflict to the world's economies.

Cheap goods from the under-developed countries began to flood the economies of the developed countries, with insufficient compensating purchases of goods on the part of the under-developed countries. Industries began to move out of the developed countries and into the under-developed countries which enjoyed burgeoning export sales.

De-industrialization of the West set in under globalization, which was constantly extolled as the new, modern and progressive structure of the world’s economy. Old industrial buildings were transformed into structures harboring cafés, restaurants and art shops.

The de-industrialization was masked with credit expansion facilitating consumption, not production, which was un-economic under the globalization scheme. Stagnant or falling wage earnings were supplemented with easy credit for the masses.

This all happened because the money the world has been using since 1971 is fiat money, not real money. But still, at this date, you hear very few voices recognizing this fundamental fact.

Modern war means destruction and death for masses of people. When WW II was over, the destruction began to heal. The cities were rebuilt, the survivors went back to what they had been doing when the war broke out: they returned to earning their livings with work, doing what they knew how to do. Normality returned, generally speaking.

But consider the effect of fiat money on the whole world.

The whole productive structure of the world has been overthrown. The factories that have vanished in the developed nations cannot be rebuilt. Globalization makes them un-economic.

The apparent prosperity of the developed nations of the world today has been sustained by credit expansion, not by savings. The West has been living like an heir to a great fortune, wasting away its inheritance. It is now bankrupt. The continuance of a whole way of life is now in danger of collapse, because it is becoming impossible to expand credit any further.

Again, more at the link.

One must acknowledge that Mr. Price is writing for a Web site whose very name, the Spanish word 'plata', means 'silver' in English.  It's clearly in his own commercial interests to promote the importance of precious metals as an investment counterweight to the perceived 'evils' of fiat currency.  However, even making allowance for that 'professional bias', I can't find much with which to disagree in his analysis, even though it may be a bit 'over the top' in places.  I think he's got the fundamentals right.

What say you, readers?

Peter

Around the blogs

Let's begin with my friend Oleg Volk.  A few weeks ago he wrote an interesting blog essay titled 'The mis-directed fetish of marksmanship', in which he examined the widely-held myth that marksmanship in and of itself can serve as the foundation for an effective militia or guerrilla organization.  It can't, of course, as any student of military history, strategy and tactics will readily attest.  (He's just followed that article with another, 'The Preferred Role of Guns in the Political Process', suggesting that their existence helps to keep the ballot box in play, rather than resorting to the cartridge box.  Those of us who've experienced prolonged, violent civil unrest will confirm that the first sort of box is greatly preferable to the second!)

His first article has led to many analyses and responses around the Internet - a quick search will bring up many of them.  I've been particularly interested in those posted by the author of the American Mercenary blog.  He's written no less than five (so far).  In sequence, they are:

1. Marksmanship Matters
2. Marksmanship Matters, the big picture
3. 20 Million Deer hunters, guardians of freedom?
4. Deer Hunters and Mao
5. How much Organization?

All are interesting and thought-provoking expansions on Oleg's theme.  Having had extensive exposure to insurgency and counter-insurgency warfare, I can attest from experience that many of the author's points are entirely valid.  These and other articles at American Mercenary lead me to believe that the author has also 'been there and done that'.  Recommended.

# # #

Firehand brings us two posts mentioning his son's dog's encounter with a skunk - terminal for the latter, and fragrant (?) for the family dwelling!  They reminded me of my own article about 'How (not) to hunt the skunk', published here on only my third day of blogging back in 2008.  The memory of that incident still makes me giggle!

# # #

Hurricane Sandy has given rise to many articles in the blogosphere (including here).  Among those I found interesting were:

• Karl Denninger - To Whiners On Response To Sandy: STFU
• 357 Magnum - One More Time For Emphasis: In a Disaster You Are On Your Own for 3 Days
• Revdisk - Disaster Recovery planning (a professional field in which I worked for some years)

All make interesting reading.

# # #

Bearing in mind next week's elections, Robb Allen waxes lyrical about a 'Primate Based Home & Life Management System'.  Here's an excerpt.

Now the first chimp I had was excellent at security. His poo flinging skills were, bar none, the best; nobody would dare step foot onto my yard.  However, when it came to my medical care, this chimp made some seriously poor choices, not to mention my financial situation was not in the best shape it could be, plus I noticed the strict diet of bananas and ticks had made me soft around the middle.

Like millions of other Americans, I decided to take control of the situation and when my 4 year contract with this chimp was up, decided to get another chimp to do the work (unfortunately, due to contractual obligations, I still have to pay for Chimp A’s retirement).

There's more at the link.  Amusing and topical.

Also of interest in this election season, Charles Hugh Smith points out that most efforts at reforming a dysfunctional political and/or economic system trigger lead, not to its reform, but to its collapse.

The dream of every conventional reform movement is to rid the system of its dysfunctional features while preserving the Status Quo.

But what the reformers don't understand is that the Status Quo is dysfunctional not because of bad policies or a few corrupt officials--it is corrupt and dysfunctional from the ground up.

Dismantle the dysfunctional parts and you've dismantled the entire Status Quo.

This is why it is so difficult for countries to reform their dysfunctional regimes.

. . .

Doesn't this apply not just to China but to Greece, Spain, Italy, the E.U. itself, the U.S., Japan and a host of other developed nations all depending on financial slight-of-hand "extend and pretend" to prop up the dysfunctional Status Quo?

Again, more at the link.  The whole article is well worth reading.

# # #

The Adaptive Curmudgeon waxes lyrical about TV writers.  A sample:

Many years ago the media was atwitter about a strike of TV writers.  I remember joking that it’s like the neighbor’s dog formally announcing it will henceforth no longer crap on your doorstep without a cost of living increase.

# # #

David McElroy describes an uncomfortable encounter with a strange, but very interesting man, which provided him with much food for thought.  His article did the same for me.  Recommended reading.

# # #

Here's a 'blast from the past' - The Art Of Manliness reminds us of an article in Harper's Magazine dating back to 1933, titled 'What the Young Man Should Know'.  I can remember my father teaching me quite a lot of those lessons, or their British or Colonial equivalents.  I don't think most young men today have benefited from them . . . more's the pity, IMHO!

# # #

Theo Spark brings us 'The Gospel According to St. Titleist'.  A couple of sample 'biblical texts':

• Golf appeals to the idiot in us and the child. Just how childlike golf players become is proven by their frequent inability to count past five. John Updike
• If profanity had any influence on the flight of the ball, the game of golf would be played far better than it is. Horace G. Hutchinson
• They say golf is like life, but don't believe them. Golf is more complicated than that. Gardner Dickinson

There are more at the link.  I still say a golf course is an unconscionable waste of a perfectly good rifle range, so you can guess where my sympathies lie!

# # #

Finally, Cafe Hayek links to what its reviewer describes as 'the best essay on health care, ever'.  The linked article is 25 pages long, in .PDF format, but for those interested in the field it's well worth reading.  I didn't agree with all the author's points, but he gave me a great deal of food for thought.


That's all for this week.  More links soon!

Peter

Attacked by a grizzly!

Well . . . sort of.

Peter

The post-Sandy whining is starting to annoy me

I'm finding the post-Superstorm-Sandy angst more and more irritating.  Here are some samples of news reports from just one source (click each headline for more information).


Feeling Forgotten After The Storm

In Staten Island, Yonkers and Bridgeport, Conn. officials lashed out at power companies for responses they called slow and inadequate. And in Coney Island, residents roamed the streets, looking for help and wondering if they had been forgotten.

As millions remained without power for the fourth straight day, tempers began to fray. A growing number of neighborhoods expressed fears that somehow in the massive recovery effort, they had been left behind—even as their supplies dwindled and temperatures dropped.

I'm sorry, but this is ridiculous!  With over 60 million people affected by this storm, which subsided less than four days ago, how the hell do officials expect power companies to respond any faster?  The USAF is flying in power trucks and personnel from as far away as California to help out.  It's not that they're not doing enough - it's that they can't possibly do more!  The same goes for other forms of assistance.  The government doesn't exist to look after you at all times.  If you want more of that, try joining the military, or going to jail.  You get three hots and a cot, most of the time - but not always, and only in exchange for a significant loss of personal liberty.  The latter is the price you pay for the former.

It's going to take weeks, possibly months, to deal with all the damage left by the storm.  Come on, New Yorkers - suck it up, live with it, and get on with what you can do right now to help yourselves.  As President Theodore Roosevelt (himself a New Yorker) famously urged, "Do what you can, with what you have, where you are".  I don't think he'd be impressed if he could see you now.


A Grim Fear Engulfs Areas Lacking Light

With floodlights, police patrols and power outlets, authorities in and around New York sought to deter looters and calm nerves in swaths of the region where the lights remained off.

In many places, they succeeded, catching would-be looters and reassuring residents. In others, they failed.

At least 41 people have been arrested in Brooklyn and Queens on looting charges, police said. Some were caught taking food, while others are accused of stealing items such as alcohol and electronics.

. . .

Still, fear and rumors swirled in darkened neighborhoods, including lower Manhattan. Residents worried about thieves posing as officials to get into apartments complexes. Lawmakers voiced concern about those preying on vulnerable, disaster-stricken homeowners.

Too bad, New Yorkers.  You've permitted your city government to restrict your Second Amendment right to keep and bear arms for decades - in fact, for over a century.  This is the result.  Your criminals have guns, because they don't care about obeying the law in the first place!  If they're prepared to break laws against theft, assault, drug-dealing, murder, etc., what makes you think they'll obey those prohibiting them from possessing firearms?  All you've done by accepting such laws is to disarm yourselves, the law-abiding citizens of the city - and that makes you prey for the (armed) predators among you.

Even owning (let alone carrying) a handgun in New York City involves jumping through so many bureaucratic hoops that it's effectively impossible unless you know (and/or bribe) 'the right people'.  For those who conquer the somewhat lesser bureaucratic obstacles to owning a long gun (i.e. a rifle or shotgun), they at least have available an effective means of home defense (although they're not allowed to carry it with them outside their homes, or in their vehicles).  However, if they use it,  even in legitimate self-defense, they're very likely to be arrested and charged with a crime, because the New York City prosecutorial system is set up to presume that a shooter is, by default, a criminal.  Only those in NYPD uniform are given the benefit of the doubt.

I wouldn't live under a system like that if you paid me . . . but if you've chosen to do so, the consequences are on your own head.  This outbreak of crime is one of them.


Scramble for Cash In Sandy's Wake

Banks hustled to make cash available as persistent power outages in New York, New Jersey and Pennsylvania from superstorm Sandy kept hundreds of ATMs offline just as the same woes left many businesses demanding cash payments.

. . .

In some areas, it was hard for banks to keep up, as people seemed to be withdrawing more cash than usual.

A Chase ATM housed in a Duane Reade pharmacy in Brooklyn, N.Y., ran out of cash at 11:30 p.m. Wednesday, according to store manager Elizabeth Almonte, who described the lines for the machine since the storm as "insane."

On a typical day, she said, there are generally about four people waiting in line for the ATM. Sunday, she said, lines snaked across the pharmacy and out the doors. She said Chase had said it would put more money in the ATM on Monday but by midday Thursday she hadn't heard from the bank. Customers "understood but were annoyed," she said.

. . .

The demands for cash post-Sandy have come from customers who have fewer withdrawal options thanks to power outages and storm damage, and businesses that are accepting cash only due to communications woes that leave them unable to accept credit and debit cards.

We experienced the same thing after Hurricanes Katrina and Rita in 2005.  I warned then (and ever since), and many others have warned, of the need to keep a 'nest egg' of cash on hand, available for emergencies like this . . . but too many people either didn't or wouldn't listen.  The result is financial gridlock as everyone discovers at the same time that their bank and credit cards won't work without power, and that banks are unwilling to cash checks if they can't electronically verify that the balance in your account is sufficient to cover the sum you want.

The same goes for keeping basic emergency supplies at home.  Those who've been following my series of articles on emergency preparation (see the list in the sidebar) know that I'm not a manic doomsday prepper.  I've written all of them as encouragement to keep on hand a basic, thirty-day stock of essential supplies, including cash for emergencies, food, a means to prepare it, fuel for cooking and your car(s) (and a generator if you have one), medication, etc.  If you've achieved that level of preparedness, or close to it, you'd most likely be sitting pretty right now in almost any of the areas affected by Sandy.  Unless your home had been destroyed or rendered uninhabitable (which has happened to less than one per cent of the buildings affected), you'd have food, light, and all the essentials you need.  It's pretty clear that by the time your supplies ran out, most of the essential services would have been restored.




I suppose the most frustrating thing for me is to read all the appeals for 'the government' - be it federal, state or local - to 'do something'.  They are doing something - they're doing everything possible - but that's simply not enough to cover all sixty-million-odd victims affected by the storm.  If our various governments and their agencies had stockpiled sufficient supplies, and hired and trained enough workers, to cater for every need in a situation like this, they'd have absorbed most of our economy, leaving nothing over to live on!  As President Gerald Ford put it, "A government big enough to give you everything you want is a government big enough to take from you everything you have".  I will not live under such a government.  Neither, I trust, will anyone who has any love for liberty, personal responsibility and human and constitutional rights.

If people have been so deaf to entreaty and blind to reality that they've ignored suggestions about emergency preparation from government agencies (federal, state and local), and from people like me who've been through disasters of one sort or another, they're just going to have to suck it up and live with it.  I'm not going to waste any sympathy on them unless they were too poor to afford any preparations at all - and there are vanishingly few such people in the USA today.  Even most of the homeless are better prepared than that!  Just visit one of their camps, and you'll see what I mean.

Finally, more details are beginning to emerge of just how big a job it's going to be to reopen New York's subway trains and road tunnels.  Much will have to wait for the restoration of power and the availability of rail cars to replace those damaged by Sandy.  The armed forces are actively involved in pumping out the tunnels - Wired has a good article illustrating what's involved.  Reading the details in both articles, I doubt whether full service will be restored before next month - possibly some individual tunnels and stations will be out of action for much longer than that.

If you're one of those still suffering from Sandy's after-effects, I hope you're better prepared, and coping better, than most of those reported in the news articles cited above.  Please let us know in Comments how you're doing, and share with us any important lessons you may have learned from this experience.

Peter

About Disney buying the 'Star Wars' franchise . . .

. . . my favorite South African cartoon strip, 'Madam And Eve', has its own take on the matter.

Peter

Emergency preparation, part 15: Looking over the post-Sandy mess

Those who've been following this series of articles will have found much food for thought in the events in the north-eastern United States as Sandy - first a tropical storm, then a hurricane, then a so-called Superstorm - moved through.  I hope my readers in the areas affected by Sandy are as well as may be expected, and that your emergency preparations were (and will continue to be) sufficient to see you through.  Unfortunately, to judge from news reports, very few appear to have been sufficiently prepared.

One story that really got my goat was the tragic tale of a mother and her two sons, aged 2 and 4.  Her vehicle got stuck in flood waters, and she took her two children with her to a nearby house to ask for assistance.  Unbelievably, the man who answered the door turned them away, refusing to help - and shortly afterwards, while she was clinging to a railing and struggling to hold onto her kids in the storm, a wave washed them out of her arms.  Their bodies were found today.  I can't say what I'd like to do to the man who refused to help her and her sons, because such actions would be illegal . . . but that doesn't stop me hoping that the Golden Rule still applies.  I hope he really needs help soon;  and when he does, may he receive precisely as much assistance as he rendered to that poor woman and her children.  At that time, I hope he remembers that "what goes around, comes around".

It seems that gasoline shortages will endure for at least another week.  There have been reports of fistfights and guns being drawn over access to gasoline pumps, queue-jumping, etc.  I hope my readers stored extra gasoline at home, so they could fill their tanks without having to be part of the post-storm madness.  (This is likely to be even more important in the light of the ongoing closure of New York's subway system, which doesn't look like coming online anytime soon - certainly not until next week.  Certain routes may be shut down for weeks or months while spare parts are ordered and repairs made.  Since parts of the subway are well over a century old, few of the firms that made the original equipment are still around, and they don't have stocks of spare or replacement parts any more.  That's going to cause big delays.  Until mass transit systems are fully operational once more, private transport is going to have to take up the slack - but with limited gasoline supplies, that'll be impossible in the short term.)

I've been particularly annoyed by attempts on the part of big-government supporters to portray the recovery effort as essentially a big-government operation, 'proving' the necessity for FEMA and other agencies to be expanded.  This is complete and utter nonsense.  I presume you've already read my comments about FEMA, the Red Cross and other relief agencies after Hurricanes Katrina and Rita in 2005, so I won't repeat them here.  Suffice it to say that private individuals, organizations and agencies did a heck of a lot more, a great deal more efficiently, than any government body.  (Have we so quickly forgotten the tens of thousands of formaldehyde-contaminated trailers distributed by FEMA, and the effects this had on the health of those who survived the hurricanes?)  As Breitbart points out, private businesses do a better job of relief than government organizations.  I'm thinking that right now, those living within range of a Wal-Mart, Home Depot, Lowes or other big-box store are going to have much better access to essential supplies than those relying on FEMA!

As PawPaw puts it (and living in Hurricane Alley in Louisiana, near where I used to live, he should know):

Get to work, quit whining, and start rebuilding.  That's what Louisianans and Floridians do after a storm.  Y'all had a little measly Cat 1 and I didn't even see that it spawned any tornadoes or anything.  The death toll is what?  About 30?  Sucks to be them, but that's not hardly enough to talk about.  Hell, Tuscaloosa lost more than that to a tornado last year.

I thought New Yorkers were tough.

I can't help thinking that he has a point.

Finally, in the wake of Sandy (and remembering my comments a few weeks ago about 'bugging out' and vehicles in which to do so), if you're flush with cash, a California company has just what you need.  It's overkill to the max (insanely so), but if you want it, they'll build it for you!  (I'd use the money to buy several more normal vehicles, plus travel and cargo trailers and emergency supplies.  For the maximum price quoted, I reckon I could equip a dozen people to survive for a decade - with vehicles, clothing, food, medication, firearms, ammunition, the lot!)

Peter

EDITED TO ADD:  I've written a follow-up article with more post-Sandy reflections.  You'll find it here.

An aviation mystery

Here's a piece - actually several pieces - of aviation history that appeared at first sight to be contradictory, but aren't in reality.  We begin in the Gulf of Aqaba in Saudi Arabia.  Artificial Owl reports:

It's a beautiful seaplane abandoned between the sea and the desert of Saudi Arabia and it's been left there for almost 50 years. The plane is a PBY-5A Catalina, a military American seaplane from the 1930's.

The aircraft ... was bought from the US Navy by Thomas W. Kendall, a retired businessman who converted it to a luxury flying yacht.

In the spring of 1960 Mr Kendall took a pleasure trip around the world with his wife and children together with his secretary and her son. A photographer joined the group to cover part of the trip for life magazine.

On the 22nd March 1960 they landed at the Strait of Tirana and anchored the aircraft a short distance from the shore to spend the night there. They heard someone shouting but did not pay any attention.

In the afternoon of the following day they were attacked with machine guns and automatic firearms from a headland nearby. The children were able to swim back to the aircraft. Mr Kendall and his secretary were wounded while trying to start the Catalina but moved it about 800 metres, unfortunately it ran aground on a coral reef.

. . .

On the beach they were captured by a group of Bedouins attached to the Saudi Arabian army, who had taken them to be Israeli commandos. They were eventually taken to Jeddah, interrogated and finally set free with the help of the American Ambassador.

There's more at the link, including many more (and larger) photographs and a link to Google Map co-ordinates.  An illustrated article about the incident was published in the May 30, 1960, issue of LIFE magazine, titled 'Nightmare Windup Of A Family's Dream Trip'.  It may be found here.

However, a commenter at Artificial Owl pointed out that Thomas Kendall's family had donated 'his' Catalina to the San Diego Air & Space Museum.  The Museum's Web site notes:  "After the war, the aircraft was used by the Coast Guard until its purchase by Thomas W. Kendall in 1956. It was donated to the Museum in January 1986 by the Thomas W. Kendall family."

The restored 'Kendall' Catalina in the museum's collection

(Image courtesy of the San Diego Air & Space Museum's Flickr photostream)

So, I wondered, which is the real Kendall aircraft?  Did he, perhaps, buy two of them - the second to replace his first, damaged by gunfire?  Is one slowly rotting away on the shores of the Gulf of Aqaba, while the other resides in restored condition in a museum?

My search for more information led me to this article from the Paradise Leased blog.

In the 1950′s, Los Angeles industrialist Thomas W. Kendall and his wife came up with an interesting idea. Purchasing three World War II era PBY Flying Boats, the Kendalls’ hired noted interior designer George Erb A.I.D. of Barker Bros. to convert the surplus war planes into a set of flying and floating luxury suites. The PBY planes were particularly unique as they were designed to be amphibious with both wheels and pontoons.

Erb gave the planes their own unique color scheme and personality creating a ”Gold,” “Turquoise” and a “Red and Black” plane. Each of the giant planes had a capacity to sleep fourteen with foam rubber sofas that converted to beds, a full galley, lavatory and even a dining room with a table that seats eight. Erb masterfully took advantage of the planes’ twin “Blisters,” the glass domed spaces at the rear, which he converted into spacious and gracious lounge areas.

In 1959, the Kendalls, both licensed and experienced pilots, embarked on a year-long round-the world trip with the three planes, bringing along their four children, aged 8-20 as well several other lucky friends including prominent L.A. physician, Dr. Ellwood L. Schultz and his wife. Kendall and his 20 year-old son Bob piloted one plane, Mrs. Kendall another, and Dr. Schultz, also a licensed pilot, the third. The amphibious planes were so complete in their mobility and the luxurious accommodations aboard, the L.A. Times declared “About the only way you could improve on this arrangement would be to take an automobile or two along on the journey. Then all you need to do is drive away from the plane and do some sightseeing.”

Again, there's more at the link, including photographs of the interiors of the three aircraft.

So it seems there were actually three 'Kendall Catalinas' - and according to the article cited above, the family originally intended to buy no less than fourteen!  One's rotting in the Gulf of Aqaba, one's in a museum.  Where's the third?  Does anyone know what happened to it?  Did the family ever buy more than three?  If any reader can provide more information, please tell us in Comments.

Isn't it fascinating what an idle search for information can turn up?  This proved to be a real detective-story-type effort!


Peter

Not a marriage made in heaven?

As a (retired) pastor, I've done my share of relationship and marriage counseling.  However, I never came across a relationship problem quite like this!  The Irish Examiner reports:

Jian Feng filed a lawsuit against his wife in May after she gave birth to the couple’s daughter.

Upon seeing the "incredibly ugly" baby girl, he thought there was no way she could be the child of him and his "beautiful" partner, and initially concluded his wife had been having an affair. "I married my wife out of love, but as soon as we had our first daughter, we began having marital issues. Our daughter was incredibly ugly, to the point where it horrified me."

When DNA tests proved the child was his, it then emerged that before Mr Feng had married his wife, she had undergone $100,000 ... worth of plastic surgery in South Korea where the decisive knife of a surgeon, not the gene pool, crafted her flawless bone structure.

. . .

Mr Feng has since been awarded $120,000 from his wife, as a sympathetic judge agreed she had tricked him into marrying her under "false pretenses".

There's more at the link.

I don't think I'm the world's worst counselor, but even so, I haven't the faintest idea how I'd approach that mess!





Peter

Heroism indeed!

An Australian soldier, Corporal Daniel Keighran, has just been awarded that nation's highest honor for valor in action, the Victoria Cross for Australia (equivalent to the US Medal of Honor), for his actions in Afghanistan in 2010.  Here's a video report of the presentation.

And here's video footage of the firefight during which his actions took place.  I don't know whether he's among the soldiers shown in the video, but he was part of their unit.

You can read more about the award here. A tip o' the hat to reader Snoggeramus for sending me the link.

From all of us military and combat veterans to Corporal Keighran, a very respectful 'Saaaa-lute!'

Peter

Reality rears its ugly head yet again

When it comes to our economic crisis (or the world's economic crisis, if you wish), many commentators have pointed out that mathematics is inexorable.  One plus one always equals two, no matter how much some might like to pretend it doesn't.  Running up debt year after year, and never paying it down or living within one's means, will sooner or later result in bankruptcy.  That's a simple mathematical fact, and no amount of 'Keynesian economics', or  'quantitative easing', or 'deficit spending', or other creative accounting shenanigans will alter that fact.  We stand now upon the very brink of that reality taking effect.

Europe has yet another reality affecting its economic and fiscal future:  its demographics.  The Atlantic has a very useful article about it.  Here's an excerpt.

Not one country on the Continent has a fertility rate high enough to replace its current population. Heavy debt and a shrinking population are a very bad combination.

Since the invention of birth control and antibiotics, country after country has gone through a fairly standard shift. First, the mortality rate drops, especially among the young and the aging, and that quickly translates into a bigger workforce. Then, birthrates drop, as families realize that they no longer need to birth a basketball team to ensure that a couple members will survive to adulthood. A falling birthrate means that parents can invest more in each child; with fewer mouths to feed, more and better food can nourish each of them, and children can spend more years in school, causing worker productivity to rise from one generation to the next. As the burden of bearing and rearing children lightens, mothers can do more work outside the home, boosting both household resources and the national economy.

. . .

But the dividend does not last forever. Eventually, the baby bulge reaches retirement age, the labor force stops growing, and older workers start spending their savings, depleting the nation’s supply of capital. The virtuous cycle turns vicious. This is what is happening right now in much of southern Europe.

. . .

Is strong growth still possible once the demographic dividend has been paid out? Of course it is, at least in theory. Even if the workforce isn’t expanding, strong-enough gains in worker productivity can substantially lift the economy. Longer hours and longer careers can theoretically have the same effect. But it is far from clear that in practice, these solutions will work, given the advanced age of Europe’s workers.

. . .

It is somewhat ironic that the first serious strains caused by Europe’s changing demographics are showing up in the Continent’s welfare budgets, because the pension systems themselves may well have shaped, and limited, Europe’s growth. The 20th century saw international adoption of social-security systems that promised defined benefits paid out of future tax revenue—known to pension experts as “paygo” systems, and to critics as Ponzi schemes. These systems have greatly eased fears of a destitute old age, but multiple studies show that as social-security systems become more generous (and old age more secure), people have fewer children. By one estimate, 50 to 60 percent of the difference between America’s (above-replacement) birthrate and Europe’s can be explained by the latter’s more generous systems. In other words, Europe’s pension system may have set in motion the very demographic decline that helped make that system—and some European governments—insolvent.

Pension and other welfare benefits, promised long ago when the workforce was expanding quickly, are at the heart of Europe’s current fiscal convulsions, which are perhaps a harbinger of worse to come. In David Canning’s view, the 2008 crash and its aftermath have merely moved up a long-inevitable implosion by 10 to 15 years. European nations “had unrealistic systems that were eventually going to cause a crisis,” he told me.

There's more at the link.  Very worthwhile reading, particularly for those who praise the 'European model' to the skies and want us to adopt it.  That model's got more than enough troubles of its own for us to want to copy it here!

Obamacare is yet another example of the 'European model' in action - and it's going to bring with it even more of the problems Europe has experienced, unless we kill the whole damn thing as quickly as possible.  Remember that next week!

Peter