Who the heck designed this thing, anyway?

 

The Boeing Starliner space capsule appears to be in more trouble every time I read about it.  The thruster problems experienced during launch and docking with the International Space Station (ISS) have been analyzed to a fare-thee-well, but no solution appears to be imminent - so much so that it may not be safe to allow astronauts to travel aboard the capsule to return to earth.

That means the astronauts may have to travel aboard another spacecraft, while the Starliner returns on its own (or is jettisoned, to burn up in atmosphere).  Unfortunately, whoever designed the Starliner set it up so that it can only detach from the ISS if an astronaut is inside the capsule to control it - but once in his spacesuit, the astronaut is too bulky to use the Starliner's hatch to get out of it and spacewalk back to the ISS.  Clearly, nobody in his or her right mind wants to be trapped inside a space capsule that may or may not return to Earth safely!  However, in that case, is the Starliner to become a permanent - and useless - attachment to the ISS, taking up a docking port that may be needed by other traffic?

Another round of analysis of the capsule's thrusters is scheduled for completion on August 23, following which a decision will be made on whether or not to use it for the return flight.  However, I'm sure the astronauts are making their own calculations about that.  If I were in their shoes, I'd be logging on to Twitter and sending Elon Musk a personal message, asking for a ride home on the next SpaceX capsule to call at the ISS.  If NASA and/or Boeing were to threaten to fire me for insubordination for doing so, I'd be lifting a spaceborne finger to them while asking Elon Musk for a job!  I daresay he'd see the humor in agreeing to that . . .

So many things have gone wrong with Starliner, and there have been so many delays (literally years long), and such enormous cost overruns, that it looks to be set fair to become one of the classic engineering disasters of the space age.  As blogger HMS Defiant put it:

 Do you get the feeling you could eat a handful of titanium filings and puke a better spaceship?

Why, yes . . . yes, I do get that feeling!

Our tax dollars at work, folks.

Peter

True dat

 

Courtesy of Western Rifle Shooters Association:

True dat . . .

Peter

Mpox a "global health emergency"? Really???

 

For the second time in as many years, the World Health Organization has declared mpox (the new, non-racist, politically correct name for what used to be called monkeypox) to be a "global health emergency" . . . but is it really?

According to a BBC report, here's the incidence of mpox cases in Africa (the epicenter of the outbreak) over the past couple of years.  Click the image for a larger view.

So, Congo has reported more than 10,000 cases - out of a population estimated at about 110,000,000.  At a rough guesstimate, that amounts to an infection rate of less than one hundredth of one percent.  The rest of the continent is way down on that number, to an almost infinitesimally small proportion of the continent's population - yet that's defined as a global health emergency?

There's also the fact that mpox is spread through close - indeed, often intimate - physical contact.  According to the BBC:

Mpox spreads from person to person through close contact with someone who is infected - including through sex, skin-to-skin contact and talking or breathing close to another person.

The virus can enter the body through broken skin, the respiratory tract or through the eyes, nose or mouth.

It can also be spread through touching objects which have been contaminated by the virus, such as bedding, clothing and towels.

Close contact with infected animals, such as monkeys, rats and squirrels, is another route.

During the global outbreak in 2022, the virus spread mostly through sexual contact.

The current outbreak from DR Congo is being driven by sexual contact, but has also been found in other communities.

There's more at the link.  Left unspoken is that men having anal sex with other men are the primary catchment area - you should pardon the expression - for the virus.  In the USA, a previous outbreak of mpox was largely confined to the gay community, with relatively few cases outside it.

Therefore, if you don't have sex with an infected person, particularly anal sex, you're very unlikely to catch mpox - particularly if you live in a country with relatively spacious living quarters, so you aren't jammed up together in a hovel, and if you observe routine First World hygiene practices.

In so many words, this is NOT a "global health emergency".  It's a routine outbreak of a disease that has been with us for generations, and in most cases is not fatal.  Victims usually recover without medical treatment, which is often not available in remote areas.  The fatality rate is given as up to 4%, but that's highly debatable.  (Don't forget, for years I passed through the areas of Africa shown on the map above, and talked to medical personnel there.  Based on that, I'd guesstimate the fatality rate to be no more than 1%-2% - much the same as many other "routine" diseases like flu in that part of the world.  It's far lower in First World countries.)

The WHO is using the relatively unknown status of mpox in the Western world as a thinly veiled excuse to whip up emotions, make people listen to its guidance, and boost its own importance in the health care ecosystem that gave us the COVID brouhaha.  The US government is not far behind, having committed over $150 million to buy bulk supplies of a mpox vaccine.  However, it's not (yet) recommending a large-scale vaccination program, probably because it knows full well that most of us won't believe it if it says such a program is necessary.

I can only suggest that such warnings by the WHO and other bodies be treated with the skepticism they deserve.

Peter

Staying alive - Diligentia, Vis, Celeritas

 

The Latin tag "Diligentia, Vis, Celeritas" (DVC) was coined by the late, great Jeff Cooper.  It means "Accuracy, Power, Speed", and summarizes the qualities needed for a shooter to prevail when push comes to shove.  For some reason this triple concept has fallen out of favor these days - at least, among the general shooting public, and among many of the shooting schools out there (although Cooper's own school, Gunsite, and Thunder Ranch still teach and maintain the tradition).

However, all three elements are vitally important.  When I say that, I'm not speaking theoretically.  In eighteen years living and moving through various conflict zones in sub-Saharan Africa, I was present at something over a hundred incidents involving the offensive and/or defensive use of firearms:  a dozen or so as an active shooter, and many more times as a witness or reluctant, unarmed participant.  In the latter incidents, I probably broke several land speed records getting away from danger and/or to cover or concealment, and I'm not ashamed to admit it!  As Clint Smith of Thunder Ranch has said, "Incoming fire has the right of way".  Most of the time, I took care to give way to it - apart from a few occasions when it moved faster than I did, and I still carry the scars.  So, when I emphasize DVC as absolutely critical to survival when the proverbial brown substance hits the rotary air impeller, I'm not just saying it.  I've learned the hard way that it's true.

Therefore, we need to take this into account when planning, training and equipping ourselves to protect our loved ones and our homes.  We can't be theoretical about it;  we have to actually put these elements into practice.  Every one of them is equally important.

Diligentia (accuracy) is self-explanatory;  if you can't hit a criminal trying to harm you or your family, you can't stop him.  However, a hit just anywhere (unless with something very powerful, such as a shotgun) probably won't stop him.  It takes a central nervous system (CNS) hit (i.e. the brain or spinal cord) to shut down an attacker's nervous system and stop him dead in his tracks.  A solid hit to the heart or vital blood vessels will usually stop an attacker within 30 seconds or so, but during that time he may still be dangerous, particularly if he's close enough to reach you;  therefore, such hits are not good enough for someone within a few yards of you.  He has to be stopped right then and there.  That means training to hit the CNS rapidly and repeatedly (because your first shots might not be right on target, and you can't afford to pause, waiting for him to fall over.  As Jim Higginbotham has put it, "Keep shooting until the target changes shape or catches fire!"  Inaccurate fire won't have the desired effect.

Nevertheless, lack of accuracy is appallingly common.  Witness the innumerable situations where cops fire dozens or scores of rounds at a criminal before putting him down.  The majority of their bullets usually miss their intended target.  Cops can generally get away with it if a stray round hits someone;  they're covered by the doctrine of qualified immunity.  However, we aren't.  Every bullet we shoot has a potential lawsuit (or even a criminal charge) attached to it - not to mention the moral guilt if it takes an innocent life.  That's yet another reason to do our best to make sure our bullets go where we intend them to go, and nowhere else.

Vis (power), the second element of the triad, is also self-explanatory.  If the level of force applied in self-defense is not enough to prevail, it won't do anything to help us.  Hitting a mugger with a feather pillow might make him laugh, will probably make him mad, and will almost certainly result in greater injury to us.  Hitting him with a Louisville slugger, or a brick, would have rather more effect, but still puts us too close to him - he'll be able to hit back.  A firearm means we can stay further away from him, and the cartridge in that firearm will have to generate enough power to penetrate obstacles (e.g. heavy winter clothing, layers of body fat and muscle, bones, etc.) and reach the vital organs we have to hit to stop the fight.  A .22LR cartridge will undoubtedly kill someone, but it doesn't pack much energy or mass, so it may take several hits and several minutes to take effect if we miss a CNS hit.  That's far from ideal.  A big heavy bullet may miss the CNS, but still impart enough shock and pain to the attacker to cause him to stop what he's doing (provided he's not so hopped-up on drugs that he can't feel his injuries).  I'll take that.  As a general rule, the minimum power considered acceptable in a defensive handgun cartridge is .38 Special in revolvers, or 9mm. Parabellum in semi-auto pistols.  There are many advocates of modern smaller-caliber rounds, but actual shootings using them, and post-mortem autopsy records, are far fewer in number than the older, larger rounds;  so I'll stick with the historically tried-and-true cartridges.  YMMV, of course.

Celeritas (speed) is often derided as being "competition-minded" rather than practical.  Some quote the Old West gunfighter maxim that "Speed's fine, but accuracy's final".  That's certainly true.  However, in a gunfight things can happen amazingly fast, particularly if an attack is launched from close range.  The well-known Tueller Drill demonstrates that a knife-armed attacker can cover a 21-foot distance and stab his victim in one and a half seconds.  Some shooting schools incorporate that into their training, so that a student stands 21 feet from a forward-moving target, his gun holstered at his side.  As soon as the target starts speeding towards him, he has to draw and shoot and score a stopping hit (usually CNS) before it reaches him.  A great many students find that very difficult, if not impossible.  If a mugger steps out from behind a building as you approach a corner, and lunges at you, you may have less than that time to react.  Will you be able to?

(If you haven't studied and practiced the Tueller Drill, or want to know more about the critical importance of reaction time, watch this video.  It may save your life.)

Putting all three elements together, we can see that they're the key to surviving an armed encounter.  Lapses in any one of them might possibly be enough to lose the fight;  lapses in any two out of three make that a probability;  lapses in all three make it a virtual certainty.  Are we training to shoot an adequately powerful weapon, accurately, at high speed?  That's what it amounts to.  Casual, untrained plinking won't do it.  I've seen any number of "weekend shooters" bring their handgun to the range (still in the box it came in), fire off 50 rounds of the cheapest practice ammo they can buy (landing all over the target, not in a tightly aimed cluster), and then go home thinking they're ready to defend themselves.  They haven't practiced drawing from a holster or pocket, or shooting on the move, or trying to hit a moving target.  If they get picked on by a violent criminal at close range, or cornered in their house by a home invader, will they survive?  I suggest the odds are against them.

A complicating factor is if there are multiple attackers.  While you're concentrating on neutralizing one of them, the others will be doing their best to neutralize you.  That's why it's very important to have speed on your side;  switching from one target to another, hunting for cover or concealment, and avoiding charging attackers.  It's all very well to say "slow is smooth, and smooth is fast", but a lot of people stop at "slow" and never try to speed up.  That can be fatal.  Practice is needed.

Another factor is our own physical fitness and ability.  I'm getting older now.  I find it hard to see standard iron sights unaided;  I can't move very fast, thanks to a long-standing disabling injury;  and having had two heart attacks, a fused spine and nerve damage, I'm very unlikely to be able to use fisticuffs or another fighting technique man-to-man.  I have to choose a weapon that will keep my attacker(s) at a distance, put them down before they can reach me, and allow me to move to safety at my slower, more awkward pace.  That makes my defensive problem much worse than a young, fit person who can move so much faster and more easily than I can.  I daresay some of my readers may have similar problems.

DVC is a series of concepts to live by.  Each of us needs to consider where we fall on that spectrum, and seek out training and practice to improve our standing if at all possible.  Given the rising crime we see all around us (more about that later), we're playing with fire if we don't.

Peter

With 110º forecast next week, I think I need to move here

 

With our weather forecast for the next ten days looking like this (clickit to biggit) . . .

I think I need to move to a cooler clime!  This report from Arkansas sounds just right for a break.

While some toil away in the heat of the summer sun, others are zipping up their winter coats for their work day.

Inside an old Johnson limestone mine sits Americold Logistics, a cold storage facility. The facility previously operated as Zero Mountain, which had turned the mine into a cold storage facility with ammonia refrigeration.

Tony Parrish has worked inside the 292,000-square-foot-cold cavern for 28 years. He said the cave was great for a cold storage facility because "inside the cave, it's 65 degrees year-round, whether it's 100 degrees outside or 35."

"If you've got glasses, they're going to fog up when you go outside," Parrish said. "If you've got a cold, you're going to keep a cold. If you don't like the warmth, the heat, you're fine, because there's more to do. Just go back from break early."

Brandon Early is a forklift operator who has worked at Americold for two years. He played hockey at the University of Arkansas in 2009 but still says it's as "cold as the Rockies baby."

"You go in and the forklift is black and you come out and the forklift is white, frosty, and steaming," Early said. 

Ammonia refrigeration keeps temperatures at subzero levels, which explains the employees' attire of beanies and winter coats. Parrish describes the facility as the "Antarctic of Arkansas," with temperatures dropping as low as -35 degrees Fahrenheit. Parrish said the coldest rooms, their 6 blast cells, must drop to -35° F to take in freshly produced poultry.

. . .

 In operations, Parrish said other facilities work just the same in cooling products. However, he said their facility has 10 feet of permafrost frozen into the limestone rocks, meaning if something went wrong it would keep cool longer.

There's more at the link.

If it's going to be 110º Fahrenheit outside next week, ten feet of permafrost sounds like a good change of pace - for a short while, anyway.  I wonder if they do short-term rentals there?  If I stuck my feet in the permafrost storage, and my head outside, would I feel just the right temperature on average?

Peter

A four-day digital detox

 

During our four-day road trip around West Texas last week, I tried something I haven't done in years.  I deliberately didn't even switch on a computer, unless you count my smartphone (which I used for calls, text messages and occasionally to read e-books, nothing more - no e-mails, no Web browsing, etc.).  I didn't blog, didn't read the news, didn't use any of the usual apps and online information resources that I usually have open on my screen.  It was an almost complete digital detox.

The results surprised me.  I'd expected to feel cut off, anxious that I didn't know what was going on in the world, wanting to know who was doing what with which to whom . . . but none of that happened.  Instead, I just relaxed.  I slept better (despite some not-very-good hotel beds), enjoyed sightseeing and conversation more, and unwound more than I'd expected.

I'm going to try to make a habit of this every six months or so:  take a few days, even up to a week, to minimize my electronic life in favor of my meatspace one.  I think it might do me good.

How about you, dear readers?  Have you tried an electronic detox "diet" like this?  If so, how did it work for you?  Please let us know in Comments.

Peter

A lot of fun in a very small package

 

How many of you remember the Bede BD-5J single-seat microjet aircraft?  It was made famous by its inclusion in the opening sequence of the James Bond film "Octopussy", flown, of course, by the hero.

The BD-5J went on to be developed into the Small Manned Aerial Radar Target, Model 1 (SMART - 1), which was used by the US military as a simulated cruise missile for training purposes.

That idea is still with us, even though most BD-5J's are no longer flying.  There is, however, an even better-performing home-build microjet available, the Sonex JSX-2.  Here's footage from its introduction in 2014.

The tiny Sonex jets are currently in use over Michigan for simulated cruise missile training, just like their predecessors.  The War Zone reports:

Tiny JSX-2 microjets, each with a pilot crammed inside, have been zipping around the skies over Michigan playing the part of hostile aerial threats like drones and cruise missiles as part of a large force exercise. The use of the JSX-2s in this role underscores U.S. military concerns about the ever-growing dangers drones and cruise missiles pose, including to the U.S. homeland, and the parallel demand for more and better ways to simulate them in training.

“Northern Strike (NS) 24-2 [is] one of the Department of Defense’s largest reserve component readiness exercises” and is “focused on expeditionary skills, command and control, sustainment and joint integrated fires,” according to a Michigan National Guard press release. More than 6,300 personnel from 32 U.S. states and territories, as well as “five international partners,” are participating in this latest iteration of Northern Strike, which has air, maritime, and ground components.

The single-seat JSX-2 is powered by a small TJ100 turbojet made by PBS Aerospace in the Czech Republic, which has a maximum thrust output of 281 pounds, according to the manufacturer. It is an evolution of the JSX-1 from Oshkosh, Wisconsin-headquartered Sonex Aircraft, which was unveiled in 2009. The improved JSX-2 that followed in the early 2010s is bigger and has a more streamlined design, as well as fully retractable landing gear. It also has a parachute recovery system that can be deployed via rocket in the event of an inflight emergency. The JSX-1 and JSX-2 have been sold in kit form on the commercial market. Sonex markets its current iteration of the kit as the SubSonex Personal Jet, a design it says has a cruising speed between 230 and 240 miles per hour and a maximum range of 410 miles.

There's more at the link.

That looks like all sorts of fun for the pilots of the two microjets.  In fact, if Larry Lambert and myself could wedge ourselves into those cockpits and take the pilots' places for a morning, think of the fun we could have!  "You want adversary targets?  We'll give you adversary targets!"  Oh, the shenanigans we could get up to . . .

 

Peter

A blast from the past

 

I'm sure most of my readers are aware that Japan has a rich history of TV prank shows, game shows of almost impossible difficulty, and so on.  Way back in the early days of this blog, I posted a video of a Japanese spa prank that had me laughing out loud.  To my surprise, I came across it again recently.  It's pretty poor quality, but still funny, so for those who missed it the first time, enjoy!

Perhaps it's a good thing spas in Texas don't stage stunts like that.  Too many of their customers would be shooting as they went out the door!

Peter

AI and information overload

 

It looks as if Israel's pioneering use of artificial intelligence (AI) to process, sort and apply intelligence gathered from multiple sources to produce a recommendation for action, is hitting a snag.  Strategy Page reports:

Now the IDF finds that it has often collected too much data on potential targets. This makes it difficult to find the current targets it needs to hit. Efforts to use AI to find the right targets in time to attack them have stumbled over the inability to sort out the available target data to find current targets that need to be hit. Another problem is that using AI to analyze the data and find the right targets concentrates on speed rather than accuracy. As a result the IDF is often hitting the wrong targets and doing so faster than before. Before AI, human analysts were used. This process was slower and often missed targets buried in a massive amount of target data. With human analysts you had better accuracy but the process was often so slow that the target had moved out of view by the time IDF air, artillery or ground attacks were launched.

Current criticisms of inaccurate targeting and civilian casualties are the result of Israeli target planners choosing speed over accuracy. Greater civilian casualties are also caused by the frequent use of the wrong weapon. Often a half-ton aerial bomb is used when a ground based anti-tank missile would have done the job. Another problem was that Israeli target planners had stopped keeping track of how many civilians were killed during attacks. When recent data on the actual number of civilians killed in recent Gaza attacks became known, it was an embarrassment for Israeli target planners and a tragedy for the victims.

There's more at the link.

It's the military intelligence version of the old builder's conundrum:  Fast, cheap, high quality.  Pick any two.  You can't have three.  If it's to be a fast, cheap job, it won't be high quality.  If it's to be fast and high quality, it won't be cheap.  If it's to be cheap and high quality, it can't be fast.  The same applies to actionable military intelligence (i.e. intelligence that leads to action at once or very soon, rather than being filed for future reference).  If you want a fast intelligence analysis and recommendation, it won't be as high-quality as one where you take more time to make up your mind.  If it's high-quality, it'll be slower - and your target may no longer be there when you arrive at a decision.  Effectively, Israel has been trying to use AI to speed up the process;  but AI is being overloaded with too much information, and is therefore making the same mistakes as we might expect from human analysts in that situation.  Unfortunately, it's making those mistakes faster - and people are dying faster as a result.

This is, of course, a tragedy for those civilians caught in the crossfire.  They're "collateral damage", if one uses the official (?) military term.  Trouble is, that term hides the reality of burned, maimed, wounded and killed men, women and children who were doing nothing wrong.  There have been thousands of them in Gaza already, and more will come.

There's no easy answer to this.  I can feel immense sympathy for the innocent on both sides . . . but as long as terrorists are prepared to slaughter innocent people in Israel, they are effectively bringing this down on their own innocent people's heads in Gaza, because Israel cannot - dare not - not respond to terrorism.

Peter

The perfect candidate?

 

With the November elections less than three months away, we're already finding Cthhulhu 2024 merchandise on Amazon.  Example:

However, that's still too tame for some.  How about a really evil candidate?

I am following my conservative principles and supporting a leader with a real vision for Gondor: the Lord of Barad-dûr, the Lord of Angband, Gorthaur, known to the electorate as Sauron the Great.

Many of my friends will reproach me for this. I respect their views, even though they are wrong. But my principles allow me no other course, and I think a majority of Gondorians will feel the same come the time for decision. We are the children of Numenor — we hear that again and again from MGGA — but who truly brings us back to Numenor and its values? Is it the directionless Stewards? The absent kings? Or will it be the One who served directly under Ar-Pharazôn himself in Numenor’s Golden Age? Character matters: record matters too, and Sauron has one.

Or consider the pressing matters of national defense. The Stewards have lost Minas Ithil and struggle to hold the ruins of once-great Osgiliath. (I served there, if I haven’t mentioned that before.) Meanwhile, Sauron builds a strong and effective national defense, and promises to do the same for Gondor. The numbers tell the tale — respect for empiricism being a core conservative principle — and so we have to note that whereas Gondor has suffered several hundred Orc attacks in the past year alone, Sauron’s Mordor has suffered none. Who then is the real law-and-order conservative?

Finally, because real conservatives value diversity, we have to look at the contrasting records of the Stewards and Sauron there as well. Denethor presides over a realm of dreary uniformity, all Men, and white Men at that. Meanwhile, Sauron has shown that a strong and vigorous realm is possible with a rainbow coalition of diversity. Mordor has Men, to be sure, but it is not just the sort of Men we have in Gondor. There are also the Men of the southern Corsairs, living in common purpose with standard Orcs, Orcs of the Uruk-Hai, Goblins, Trolls, Fell Beasts, Balrogs, ancient spider beings, and more.

. . .

Years ago, the famous Last King Isildur told us it was a time for choosing. This season, I, the last true conservative of Gondor, in the spirit of Isildur’s own choice, choose the Servant of Morgoth.

There's more at the link.

I wonder what an electoral - or other - contest between Sauron and Cthhulhu would resemble?  And who would win?  And would President Trump ride to the rescue and destroy both of them with his devastating orange man personality?

Peter

Fun and games on the road

 

My wife and I had a very pleasant four-day trip around West Texas, visiting friends, learning things (that will inform future books), and generally relaxing from a hectic few recent weeks.  Some highlights:

• Stopping in Munday, TX to sample the It'll Do Grill, a name that couldn't help but catch our attention as we searched online for a lunch spot.  The eatery lived up to the promise of its name, with a limited selection of dishes, but well cooked and in large quantities.  We had to smile at the choice of a name for the place.
• We visited friends in San Angelo, TX, and took the family out to supper.  Next morning we visited the International Waterlily Collection in that city, which was very interesting;  it's internationally well-known, and has developed the only hybrid day/night waterlily ever created.  When thinking about alien plants and how they might develop, the waterlily offers an interesting alternative to "standard" flowers, which is why I wanted to see the place.  The young (6-year-old) daughter of the family was racing happily to and fro, a real bundle of energy.  I asked her where she got it from, and she looked puzzled.  "I don't know.  I didn't have breakfast.  I only ate leftover chocolate cake and leftover key lime cheesecake..." (from the previous night).  Zoom!  Zoom!  Zoom!  We were all giggling at her reply.  To paraphrase the old song, "Sugar High Honey Bunch"!
• The Panhandle-Plains Historical Museum in Canyon, TX has several new exhibits.  One I particularly enjoyed is an in-depth look at the Second Battle of Adobe Walls in 1874, the fight that precipitated the Red River War which ended the regional dominance of the Plains Indian tribes, the Kiowa and Comanche, and opened western Texas and Oklahoma, and southern Kansas and Colorado, to settlement and cattle ranching.  It's one of the seminal events of the era, yet few people today know about it.  Another is a greatly expanded exhibition of Western art, including paintings and sculptures worth a great deal of money, and requiring a security guard to be present at all times.  We've visited the Museum several times before, and it's always worth stopping by to see what new things they've put out on display.
• Estelline, TX is notorious for its speed-trapping activities (I swear they run the town on the profits generated by that).  Needless to say, everyone who knows about it (including all the locals) slow down well before they reach the town limits, to avoid being caught.  You can imagine our amusement when a California car, a lowered, souped-up Toyota Corolla by the look of it, went zipping past us at 90-100 mph as we all slowed down.  You could see heads turning as all of us drivers looked at each other and grinned evilly!  Lesson learned:  when you see all the locals slowing down, it might not be a bad idea to follow their example until you find out why . . .

We're safely home again.  Back to the salt mines!

Peter

Memes that made me laugh 222

 

Gathered from around the Internet over the past week.  There aren't as many as usual, thanks to being on the road for a four-day trip.  Click any image for a larger view.

More next week.

Peter

On the road for a few days

 

My wife and I will be on the road for a few days, doing some book research and visiting related sites.  Blogging will be intermittent, as and when I can find time (and an Internet connection) to upload something.  We'll get home (God willing) on Sunday, so normal blogging service should resume next Monday.

Peter

"Crunchy" versus "soggy"

 

I was reminded of this Financial Times essay by Glenn Reynolds, who mentioned it in his latest newsletter.  I've kept a copy of it ever since I first came across it in the 1980's.  I thought you might find it useful too.

Crunchiness brings wealth. Wealth leads to sogginess. Sogginess brings poverty. Poverty creates crunchiness. From this immutable cycle we know that to hang on to wealth, you must keep things crunchy.

Crunchy systems are those in which small changes have big effects leaving those affected by them in no doubt whether they are up or down, rich or broke, winning or losing, dead or alive. The going was crunchy for Captain Scott as he plodded southwards across the sastrugi. He was either on top of the snow-crust and smiling, or floundering thigh-deep. The farther south he marched the crunchier his predicament became.

Sogginess is comfortable uncertainty. The modern Scott is unsure how deeply he is in it. He can radio for an airlift, or drop in on an American early-warning station for a hot toddy. The richer a society becomes, the soggier its systems get. Light-switches no longer turn on or off: they dim.

Intelligent questions replace the church’s absolute faith. Seat belts are worn. Words (like these) are not written down, but processed endlessly. Exam papers are no longer passed or failed but graded, with no one quite sure what grade is needed for what.

. . .

A crunchy policy is not necessarily right, only more certain than a soggy one to deliver the results that it deserves. Run your country, or your company, or your life as you think fit. But whatever you decide, keep things crunchy.

There's more at the link, although it may disappear behind a paywall.

The sad thing is, nowadays few younger people seem to recognize what "crunchy" means - or recognize the names of those who lived "crunchy" lives.  I wonder how many young people today recognize the name of "Captain Scott", referred to in the article?  There was a crunchy man if ever there was one . . . but his adventures have faded into distant history.  Where are our modern Captain Scotts to renew his example?

Peter

An unfortunate juxtaposition

 

They could have placed the sign in a somewhat more... er... appropriate place!  Click the image for a larger view.

Oops???

Peter

A movie blast - and smile - from the past

 

Recently, in e-conversation with a friend, I learned he'd never heard of (much less watched) the 1965 comedy Western, "The Hallelujah Trail".  Starring Burt Lancaster, Lee Remick and an almost unrecognizable Donald Pleasance as a drunken visionary miner, it's a hoot!  I've watched it several times, and enjoyed it on each occasion.

It occurred to me that some of my readers may also have missed it:  so here's the full movie, which for some reason is available on YouTube without restriction.  Don't worry about the blacked-out bits;  they're a music interlude to let audiences take their seats.  It's a long film (about 2¾ hours), but I think you'll find it worthwhile.  Enjoy!

I wish they still made movies for entertainment, rather than shock value and "woke" anti-values . . .

Peter

Fending for ourselves

 

Looks like many Americans are voting with their wallets when it comes to personal security and self-defense.  The National Shooting Sports Foundation (NSSF) informs us:

The last time monthly background checks associated with the sale of a firearm at retail were below 1 million was July 2019, when 830, 579 background checks for firearm sales were recorded.

Since then, each month, the FBI’s National Instant Criminal Background Check System (NICS) has recorded over 1 million background checks associated with the sale of at least one firearm at retail. July 2024’s total was 1,064,790 – a 4 percent increase over the 1,023,903 background checks recorded in July 2023.

There's more at the link.

That's sixty consecutive months of better than a million gun sales per month.  The latter figure isn't precise, because background checks via the NICS system can also be carried out to clear applicants for concealed carry permits and other needs.  There may also be sales that did not go through, or were prohibited for some reason.  On the other hand, each NICS clearance is valid for more than one firearm at a time, so those who bought multiple firearms would have been under-counted.  Also, private sales usually don't require NICS clearance, so they won't be reflected in the numbers.  (That's very useful for confidentiality, if that concerns you;  private sale = no background check = no paperwork = increased security against confiscation in future, unless the powers that be trace the transaction in some other way.)

The politicians who let our country get into the mess it's in are, of course, directly responsible for so many of us deciding that we need to provide for our own security and protection.

Peter

"Just routine" can kill you

 

John Farnam reports:

Today, a 65-year-old female career Walmart employee was precipitously attacked and stabbed to death inside her own well-lighted store, at 7:00am, in Lake Elsinore, CA.  She was not “isolated,” as other store staff were present at the time.

The victim, unarmed by corporate edict, died at the scene.

The murderer, who had no connection with the victim, is a 29-year-old man, a multiple-convicted felon, out on parole.  He “turned himself in” to police a short time later.

This murderous attack did not happen late at night, nor in “the bad part of town,” nor was the victim doing anything other than going about her legitimate routine

Comment:

1) Alertness, awareness, and personal readiness must not be limited to parking lots and dark alleys, late at night!

2) Particularly in CA, what we laughingly call our “criminal justice system” is well and truly broken, as leftist politicians openly promote violent crime, and protect violent criminals.

3) Most Walmarts and similar stores have knives for sale on the shelf, that anyone can pick up.  Being “inside a store” is no guarantee of personal safety, as we see!

4) Woke corporate “officials” say they are “heartbroken,” but of course they will still not allow employees to be armed with any species of self-defense kit.  A glaring exception is made, of course, for their own bodyguard staffs.

5) When you naively believe self-serving security fairy-tails, promoted by amoral woke hypocrites and mealy-mouthed corporate commissars, then the foregoing fate can be yours too!

Quite so.

Friends, I've said it before, and I'll say it again:  You are not, repeat, not, I say again, NOT safe in today's world!  I don't care whether you're at home, or driving, or shopping, or whatever - there are low-lifes and weirdos and people who are more or less out of their minds all around you.  If you spent a day or two observing inside the average jail or prison, you'd be scared s***less to see how many of them walk in and out of such places every day - the "revolving door" of the so-called "justice" system - and every one who walks out is statistically more likely than not to reoffend.

Keep your head on a swivel, stay alert, and if possible stay armed.  You never know when those preparations might save your life.  I'm willing to bet the unfortunate Walmart employee would never have dreamed that such a fate might befall her . . . but it did.  It can befall us, too.

Peter

The Chinese economy: not so hot?

 

Peter Zeihan has said a lot about China over the years, particularly the demographic challenges it faces.  He thinks those challenges are coming to a head, and will become very visible over the next few years.  In this brief video clip, he gives reasons.

With pressures like that staring China's leadership in the face, they may well choose to redirect internal attention to an external problem like Taiwan, or relations with the West.  This adds to the global uncertainty discussed in the previous blog post.

Food for thought . . .

Peter

The rest of this year is going to be "interesting"...

 

International tensions (Israel-Iran-Hamas-Hezbollah-Yemen, China-Taiwan, Russia-Ukraine, Iran-Azerbaijan-Armenia, and a host of others) are one thing.  Domestic issues (race, legal and illegal migration, culture wars, support for one or other external faction, etc.) are another.  The November 2024 election is also a factor;  I fully expect at least one more assassination attempt against President Trump, and this time those behind it are likely to make sure it's much better planned, organized and executed than their first risible effort.  If they succeed, we may just have a civil war on our hands.  If they cheat at the polls (which I absolutely expect them to do), ditto.

Putting all that together, I can only endorse The Honest Broker's warning.

Things are moving fast right now, and I’m not talking Olympic swim times. The culture and media are changing more rapidly than I’ve ever seen before.

And it won’t slow down.

If I were a commercial pilot, I’d tell you to return to your seats and buckle up.

I anticipate extreme turbulence on every front for the remaining five months in 2024. You will see it in politics, business, economics, culture, world affairs, the stock market, and maybe even your own neighborhood.

There's more at the link (most of it behind a paywall).

Looking at it from an economic perspective, James Kunstler agrees.

Everything that can break is breaking: stock markets, bond markets, the galaxy of derivatives — bets on this and that, which will never be honored. Banks are next. Gold and silver are hanging in there for dear life just now, because they’re actually worth something. (And because they are worth something, they‘ll eventually sell off some too, to cover margin calls on other stuff hemorrhaging value. But they will not go to zero  like a lot of other stuff, and they’ll come back stronger.)

You understand this can’t play out like it did in 2008-9. The authorities are out of tricks and out of fake money. They can try the emergency interest rate cut, but it won’t change what is actually happening: the epic revaluation of everything humans make and own — with much of it losing value and quite a bit losing all value because it never really had any. The spooky catch is that there will be an attempt, in this wild and terrifying process, for certain devious, unprincipled  parties to take possession of many things shaking loose — what remains of collateral. . . real things. . . commodities. . . facilities. . . properties. . . chattels. . . artworks. . . and, of course, whatever securities still have a relationship to realities of production.

. . .

Oh, and you’ve probably noticed that World War Three is shaping up to kick off today.

Interesting times. . . And I’m supposed to be on vacation this week.

Again, more at the link.

We're living in very dangerously unstable times, friends.  Be as prepared as you can be to ride them out;  and keep your metaphorical powder dry.  By the New Year we may be living in a rather different situation than we are at present . . .

Peter

Hoist with their own petard?

 

Project Veritas has uncovered highly entertaining details of how Democratic Party vote-rigging tricks in one Michigan city are now being turned against them by a new pressure group.

Project Veritas’ investigation began in 2023 when the newly-elected Muslim leadership banned the LGBTQ pride flag on city property. We spoke to dozens of locals, Democrat officials, and liberal activists who all described how Muslim politicians are using illegal ballot harvesting operations to secure permanent power. Under Michigan law, ballot harvesting and the handling of multiple ballots has been illegal.

Prominent media figures and government officials insist that election fraud is a myth. They actively work to use propaganda and lawfare to shut down any dissenting voices with evidence to the contrary. But after a decade of successful election fraud investigations leading to arrests and voting law changes, Project Veritas is determined to uncover the truth of these allegations in Democrat-ruled Hamtramck, and once again document systemic voter fraud.

Hamtramck’s Democrat officials admitted to Project Veritas that ethnic minorities have been using absentee ballot fraud to win city elections for over twenty years. But it was the election of Conservative Yemeni Muslims to the mayorship and council in 2021 which put an end to 100 years of continuous Polish political power. Locals expressed to our journalists that life under Muslim leadership isn’t the Democrat unity that many had hoped. The growing influx of Arab immigrants means that burqas, animal sacrifice, and the Muslim call to prayer blasting through city loudspeakers five times a day is now common.

Progressives who once eagerly welcomed Middle Eastern immigrants now express a feeling of betrayal and fear that their progressive LGBTQ sanctuary may be lost forever as Muslim politicians appear to perfect the use of voter fraud.

. . .

Hamtramck Democrats apparently fear allegations of racism and discrimination if they bring attention to election fraud coordinated by Bangladeshi and Yemeni ethnic minorities ... Multiple Hamtramck residents in the know say that voter fraud is primarily committed within closed ethnic communities within the city, where immigrants who are unfamiliar with the voting process are intimidated and bullied to turn over their ballots by harvesters working for the candidates.

There's more at the link.

In so many words, the former powers that be in Hamtramck are bewailing the fact that the new powers that be there are using exactly the same tactics that they did.  "It's OK when we cheat, but not OK when they do!"

My heart bleeds for them.

There is, of course, an easy way to stop this sort of electoral fraud dead in its tracks.  Vote in person, on election day, at your designated precinct, with proof of ID and US citizenship, and be marked in some way to indicate that you've already voted, so you can't do so again.  That would instantly remove almost all possibility for electoral fraud . . . but such measures would also derail the institutionalized electoral fraud that's existed in such areas for decades, if not generations.  Therefore, it won't happen.  Crooked politicians have too much to gain from corruption.

Peter

Worth remembering

 

This is why I, for one, won't be voting for Kamala Harris under any circumstances, irrespective of her political affiliation.

Says it all, right there . . .

Peter

Yumyumyum!

 

A couple of weeks ago I put up a "Thank you" post to the anonymous reader who sent my wife and myself a gift pack from Killer Bees Honey, whom we've met in these pages on several previous occasions.  It was a most welcome and very kind "Get Well Soon" gift, and we appreciate it very much.

A number of you clicked over to Killer Bees Honey to buy some for yourselves, but were frustrated because they soon ran out of available honey.  I had a few complaints via Comments and e-mail.  However, there's good news.  They've now processed this summer's Sourwood honey harvest, and also managed to find a couple more "supers" of wildflower honey.  Both are now available in their shop, the latter restricted to one bottle per purchaser, the Sourwood without limitation.  They're expensive, but it's probably the best honey in north America (at least to my palate), so you pays for what you gets.  Shipping is free for orders of two or more bottles.

I'm not being compensated in any way by Killer Bees Honey for boosting them here, not even with free product.  The apiary is run by someone I've known online and (more recently) in meatspace for years, and I like to help my friends:  and I certainly like to point my readers in the direction of good things.  Highly recommended.

Peter

Memes that made me laugh 221

 

Gathered from around the Internet over the past week.  Click any image for a larger view.

Sunday morning music

 

Let's nip back in time to the 1960's, the heyday of the growing British folk rock scene, and the genesis of one of the more intriguing groups of that time, Pentangle.  It fused folk and jazz music into something unique, which has never been duplicated since then.

Pentangle produced many memorable melodies.  I've picked four love songs this morning, love fulfilled and love thwarted by fate.  Let's start with "Let No Man Steal Your Thyme".  This is a live performance at the Royal Festival Hall in 1968.

A song for a love lost:  "The Trees They Do Grow High".

One of my favorites among their love songs, performed live on ITV in 1972:  "No Love Is Sorrow".

And finally a love song to or about the dead, and how they enter Heaven.  As with many old tunes (this one is well over a thousand years old in its origins), it mixes Christian and pagan beliefs.  It's the "Lyke Wake Dirge".

If any of the lyrics are unclear, you can look them up online.

Peter

Saturday Smile

 

This Pickles comic strip was recommended by a reader last week.  It made me smile, so I thought I'd share it with you this morning.  Click the image to be taken to a larger view at the comic's Web page.

A sting in the tail, but still true for many of us.  I know a great deal of my happiness today is because of my wife's presence in my life;  and I hope I've contributed at least as much to her happiness.  A good partner makes all the difference.

Peter

A look at Western movies from across the pond

 

The Telegraph in Britain has published its ranking of the 25 best Western movies of all time.  It's an interesting mixture, due as much to the films it leaves out as to those it includes.  Its top choice is "Unforgiven", and its lowest choice at #25 is "Blazing Saddles";  but there's no mention of "McKenna's Gold" or "The Treasure of the Sierra Madre" or other well-known classics.

Click over there to read their choice of movies, then let us know what you think in Comments.  I'll be interested to see how those of us who live on the same continent as the "Wild West" think about the Old World's perspective on it from several thousand miles away (not to mention a cultural divide that yawns wide).

Peter

A "vulture apocalypse" kills half a million people

 

The Telegraph in Britain reports that the vulture population in much of India was almost wiped out by the agricultural use of animal medication.  That, in turn, led to a vastly increased human death rate.

The sudden collapse of India’s vulture population has led to more than half a million excess human deaths in the last five years, according to a peer-reviewed study in the American Economic Review.

A flock of vultures can pick a carcass clean in a matter of minutes, purging the environment of harmful bacteria and pathogens that accumulate on the rotting remains of livestock and preventing the spread of deadly diseases.

Even the excrement of some species of vulture can carry cleaning powers, with its high acidity helping to disinfect the ground surrounding the dead animal corpses.

But in the 1990s, vulture populations on the Indian subcontinent plummeted by a staggering 99 per cent – the fastest decline of a bird species in recorded history, according to the latest State of India’s Birds report.

For years, scientists were baffled by the sudden extinction. It was only in 2004 that diclofenac – a cheap painkiller widely used to treat cattle that is deadly to vultures if they ingest it  – was identified as the cause.

. . .

“When these birds disappeared, suddenly there were all these dead carcasses lying around…and were no longer delivering these scavenging services,” Dr Sudarshan told The Telegraph. “That change was quite visible.”

The report estimates that the decline caused a four per cent rise in human deaths in districts where the birds once thrived, resulting in more than $69 billion (£53 billion) per year in mortality damages – the economic costs associated with premature deaths.

After the vultures disappeared, the rotting carcasses of livestock animals oozed diseases and bacteria that polluted waterways and fuelled a rise in feral, and sometimes rabid, dogs.

There's more at the link, including a note that the same painkiller is used in Africa, and a similar drop in the vulture population is taking place there too - albeit at a slower pace.  Nevertheless, its progress is inexorable.

This is, of course, a tragedy for the vulture, and for India's rural population;  but it illustrates yet again how an advance in one field can lead to serious problems in another.  It's the law of unintended consequences at work.  Trouble is, one can only see that in hindsight - usually after it's too late to undo much of the damage.

I can't help wondering what this means for the Towers of Silence in the Zoroastrian religion, which has many followers in and around India.  Devotees expose the bodies of their loved ones in these towers, where vultures and other carrion eaters devour their flesh, leaving only the bones.  Did the sudden drop in the vulture population cause difficulties with this, just at the time when the number of "excess dead" requiring their services abruptly increased because of the birds' decline?

Peter

Selco makes a valid point

 

We've met Selco Begovic in these pages on several previous occasions.  He survived the Bosnian war in the 1990's, and has published three books about his experiences during that time.  (I own all three, and recommend them highly.)  He teaches and writes about survival skills in extreme situations.

He had these thoughts about the assassination attempt on President Trump.

You all watched the video of the shooting at Donald Trump.

Shots were fired, and how many people took cover (except Mr. Trump)? How many people at least lad down to make themselves smaller targets?

Very few.

There is active shooting. Nobody exactly knows what is happening, how many shooters there are, what kind of weapons are being used, and what more gonna be used. The majority of people are standing up, looking at what is happening, and recording scenes with cell phones.

Bit weird right?

It looks like the majority of people in SHTF will die simply because they will try to record SHTF on their phones.

It is not only about the system. It is about ordinary people too.

We become idiots mostly, with zero survival instincts, and the better and more modern life we have, the longer and more painful the fall we will have when SHTF.

Now, combine those people with times when the big plug gonna be taken out…

What do you think will happen then?

There's more at the link.

He makes a very good point.  Preparedness means being prepared to act in unusual, uncertain or potentially dangerous circumstances, without waiting to find out what, precisely, is going on.  All those people standing around as shots were fired at President Trump, looking frantically from side to side to try to understand what was happening . . . they were sitting ducks.  The few who were thinking as they watched the President realized within a matter of seconds what was happening, and ducked or lay down to get out of the line of fire.  The rest - not so much.

I don't wish to denigrate American women - after all, I married one!  Nevertheless, they're notorious not just among American men, but all over the world, for being independent-minded, unwilling to simply obey orders from a man, even "pushy" about their "rights".  In an emergency, particularly with husbands who may have military or police or EMS experience, such attitudes may get them killed.  It's definitely a factor in planning for emergencies.

I've warned my wife many times that if I ever grab her and pull her to the ground, or shove her in a particular direction, or yell at her to follow me, she's not to hesitate:  she's to do what I tell her, right now, without arguing.  Very fortunately, she understands my reactions and the background that's ingrained them in me.  She's also seen them kick in during a couple of high-stress moments that could have gone badly;  so she understands why I'm saying that, and doesn't try to refuse, or stress her feminine independence, or anything like that.  I can only ponder how many other American women would do likewise.  How many would refuse to simply "obey", arguing that they have a right to an explanation before they do?  And how many of them would die waiting for that explanation?

That's not to deny, of course, that many women - former military personnel, emergency services, etc. - are better prepared than most men to handle such emergencies.  How many of their husbands or boyfriends would object to being given sudden, blunt orders, on the grounds that "they wear the pants in our relationship"?  I've met too many like that.  This is something that needs to be discussed between couples and within families, so that everyone understands who has the knowledge and experience needed to respond swiftly to emergencies so that they all have a better chance of surviving them.

More food for thought . . .

Peter

Laws of physics? What laws of physics?

 

Bollywood fight scenes strike again!

Just once, I'd like to see a movie show exactly how hard it is to take a full-strength punch and come back from it.  Very few people can do it - even hardened martial artists find it tough enough, and there are not that many of them.  A well-thrown punch, or a suitably placed hard blow with a hard object, can kill someone right there.  I've seen it done, more than once.  (African grudge fights between tribes offer plenty of examples.)

Of course, in Bollywood (and Hollywood for that matter) that reality isn't very important . . .

Peter