. . . that I forecast earlier this month, and again yesterday?
Headline: "Jordan acquires ex-Israeli Cobra attack helicopters".
Israel has transferred 16 Bell AH-1 Cobra attack helicopters to Jordan to assist its air force in the fight against Islamic State militants, US sources have confirmed.
The rotorcraft involved had been phased out of use by the Israeli air force several years ago, and were refurbished prior to being flown to Jordan, the sources add.
. . .
Foreign sources have claimed that Israel and Jordan have been cooperating in the fight against Islamic State, in most cases through joint intelligence activities. This is the first time that there has been a transfer of weapon systems between the nations, the sources add.
Israeli, Jordanian and US officials decline to comment on the move, which could only have been made with Washington's approval.
There's more at the link. Bold, underlined text is my emphasis.
So, Israel has transferred to an Arab state - and a traditional enemy, one that's sided with the Palestinians on most issues against Israel and fought a war with that country a few decades ago - weaponry that it first refurbished, and did so with US permission. The helicopters will, of course, be used in Jordan's campaign against ISIS in Iraq and Syria (you'll recall ISIS burned to death a Jordanian F-16 pilot earlier this year). I'd say that's a rapprochement in spades! (It's very Middle Eastern, though. As the old Arab proverb says, "The enemy of my enemy is my friend". Israel doesn't want an ISIS-dominated Syria, or Lebanon, or Gaza. If Jordan is ISIS' enemy, Jordan has just become Israel's friend.)
There are a couple of wider geopolitical implications as well.
- I'd be interested to know who paid for the helicopters to be refurbished first. It wouldn't surprise me to find Saudi petrodollars involved in the transaction.
- If Israel has to launch air strikes against Iran, it will almost certainly have to overfly Jordanian territory to get there. I'd say the chances of Israel getting permission to do so - or, at least, having Jordan turn a Nelsonian blind eye to the overflights - have just improved considerably.