Thursday, October 13, 2016

The increasing agitation of the anti-Trumpers

I've been going through quite a lot of data - articles, surveys, opinion polls, editorials, and the like - in an attempt to understand the undercurrents of the Presidential election campaign at this time.  I don't think I've ever seen such frenzied agitation by, and within, the incumbent party's campaign, or such blatant, in-your-face efforts to scare and/or intimidate and/or disgust the electorate into rejecting the non-incumbent party's candidate.  It's almost at desperation level - partly driven, of course, by continued support for Mr. Trump from a significant proportion of the electorate.  Sadly, at least some of their slash-and-burn tactics seem to be working.

Let's look at a few examples.

  • Trump 'scandals' are popping up almost daily, like new zits on an acne-prone teenager's face.  They're so clearly being manufactured, or served up to order, that it's as plain as a pikestaff.  No-one with half an ounce of common sense can possibly believe that this tidal wave of negative propaganda is anything other than orchestrated.  You can almost hear the opposition campaign managers:  "Let's go with 'Trump used locker room language!'  What?  That didn't work?  All right, let's try, 'Trump groped women!'  If that doesn't work, we'll try Plan C!"  What's more, all the allegations (thus far) are years, even decades old.  They're so old that it's almost impossible to prove or disprove those not supported by evidence, and Mr. Trump has almost no ability to respond with any certainty.  It breaks down to "He said, she said".  There are (to date) no recent allegations, for the obvious reason that they would be easier to prove or disprove.  Democrats are, very clearly, working from Goebbels' playbook.
  • Establishment figures and media are overwhelmingly anti-Trump, and are coming out with pronouncement after pronouncement that he's simply not fit to be President.  During the past week, the editorial boards of USA Today, the Atlantic and the Washington Post have joined the chorus.  Note that none of them have said one word about Hillary Clinton's manifest unfitness to occupy any elected office higher than deputy acting honorary unpaid second assistant dog-catcher (said unfitness being demonstrated almost daily by new leaks).  The innumerable scandals surrounding her are either ignored, or papered over with a few words.  Truth is the first and most obvious casualty of such endorsements.  Those making them aren't interested in the truth;  they're interested only in defending and advancing the establishment agenda.  (We've already discussed the nature of that establishment.)
  • Almost every opinion poll is relentlessly pushing the perspective that voters prefer Hillary Clinton over Donald Trump.  The fact that many of those polls are 'made-to-order' surveys (we examined one particularly egregious example two days ago) is never mentioned.  The corruption of the polling 'industry' is widespread and pervasive.  I'm not a professional statistician, but I've been trained in the use of statistics in business, to the level of a Masters degree in management.  Anyone with that background, looking at factors such as sample sizes, selection criteria, the nature of the questions being asked and the bias or 'slant' built into their wording, and so on, can only have the gravest doubts about the professional integrity of some of the organizations doing the surveying.  That bias also goes on to affect the aggregate analysis of all polls, performed by reputable organizations such as Nate Silver's FiveThirtyEight.  When some of the polls being aggregated are biased and/or otherwise flawed, the aggregate result that includes them must inevitably be affected by that.

Of course, this tide of anti-Trump propaganda and manipulation of the media, polls, etc. is having its inevitable effect.  Mr. Trump is not so much fighting an uphill battle as having to claw his way up a near-vertical, icy precipice without any help - even without basic equipment such as ice-axes.  It's a daunting task, and I'm not sure he can bring it off.  The extent of his challenge is summed up by Nate Silver in this morning's analysis of the current state of the campaign:

Silver's FiveThirtyEight says that Trump is 'still in big trouble' after the second debate, and sees little precedent for a Trump comeback at this point in the race.  That organization in particular strives to be professional in its analysis, so such articles paint a gloomy picture for anyone who believes, as I do, that Hillary Clinton would be the worst of all possible Presidents.  (That's not to say, of course, that Donald Trump would necessarily be much better;  but at least I don't think he could possibly be as bad!)

The best one can hope for is that Mr. Trump sticks to his guns, and continues to stump the country, drawing tens of thousands to his rallies.  That's just about his only chance to overcome the media bias against him.  If he can persuade enough individuals, and they can use social media and their normal daily contacts to persuade enough of their friends and relatives, an upset may yet be possible.  I'm going to be watching the polls very carefully.  If Mr. Trump can stay within 3-4% of Hillary Clinton overall, particularly in the swing states and in critical ones such as Florida, then an upset victory for him remains possible.

I also take some comfort from the way polling organizations have got other campaigns wrong, most recently Brexit.  If enough pollsters are underestimating his support in the same way here . . . who knows?



Anonymous said...

What are the odds that THREE women on the same day simultaneously claim sexual harassment from Donald Trump ? Seems a little too much to believe, but the DNC seems to believe their narrative.

Anonymous said...

Make no mistake the republican establishment is coordinating with the media and the democrat party in this unprecedented smear campaign. The mask has slipped and all pretenses are gone. The democrat and the republican establishment and the so-called conservative movement are all working towards the same ends. Remember this whole Billy BUSH pussy grabbing "scandal" was orchestrated by Dan Senor a Romney and Cuck Ryan lackey. Hopefully by the time the dust settles from this treacherous episode the republican party as it is currently composed is burning a firey death on the ash heap of history and Trump or other leaders either resurrect it as a nationalist, American people first, rule of law, non interventionist party or replace it with another.

The average American has been getting a red hot poker up the backside for years now and there's an R on the handle as well as a D. Their nation is being invaded and its population replaced, their wealth stolen, their children corrupted, their soldiers slaughtered for nothing and the very foundations of their nation are being systematically undermined by the ruling elites in both parties.

Let's hope the hacker group Anonymous makes good on their threat to release a secretly recorded video on Epstein's pedophile island which shows Bill Clinton raping a 13 year old girl. That'll shake things up. Combine that news with a huge ad buy showing Hilllary Clinton laughing about getting a child rapist acquitted and it should put Trump's realtalk about pussy in proper perspective.

Anonymous said...

The single biggest thing this tactic does is allow the media to ignore the fact that Ms. Clinton has not had to defend her positions as a leftist. The second biggest thing is allows Mr. Trump to duck any questions on what he will do as President.

Question: What is the biggest threat to the USA in the short term?

Clinton: Trumps a pig!

Trump: You should know your married to one.

The choice of Red Queen versus Mad Hatter.


Odysseus said...

As always on these comments I'm not trying to talk anyone out of a "lesser evil" position, I may not agree with it but I understand.

What I am becoming more and more worried about is the preemptive positioning of a "stab-in-the-back" myth like Germany at the end of the Great War. Trump has always been the one and only candidate even more disliked about Hillary and as we now see from the leaked e-mail the one she wanted to run against.

I would almost consider voting for Trump if I could get an enforceable pledge from both him and his supporters that if he loses the blame is all his(as it should be in any presidential campaign). As it is I'm left with the admittedly ice cold comfort of knowing that I haven't slapped my personal franchise on either the Giant Douche or the Turd Sandwich.

Tim Newman said...

I'm hoping enough Americans see the contempt the establishment hold them in and vote for Trump just to ensure this sort of behaviour isn't rewarded. I mean, they're not even trying to hide it, they're engaging in this behaviour brazenly and knowing they'll get away with it. If Hillary is elected they'll be proven right, and you can kiss goodbye to ever getting a proper, conservative Republican elected again.

Tim Newman said...

BY the way, as I found myself doing with Putin when I lived in Russia, I am increasingly finding myself having to defend Trump, which I'd rather not have to do.

TheOtherSean said...


This latest Rasmussen poll results (they've been polling daily since second debate) shows Trump ahead by two points nationally. Some claim that Rasmussen is biased +2% for the Republicans; if true, that would be statistical dead heat.

A recent Pennsylvania poll mentioned on the CBS News website shows Hillary up by 9 points. I'll note that the list of counties they mentioned conducting the polling in are all in the Philadelphia area.

harp1034 said...

Batten down the hatches Mate. There is a big storm coming. Hilary might just find out she has been elected Captain of the U.S.S. Titanic. Iceberg? There are no icebergs around here.

Usagi said...

Why are you wishing Hillary on some poor First Assistant Dog catcher and the poor dogs he catches?

VFM #7916 said...


Mr. Grant, this is your fundamental error. Your post presents the idea that media pollsters are "underestimating" support for Trump. Even with the premise in your post that the media and the elite are untrustworthy you have not yet given up the idea that the pollsters are seeking truth, or even desire to report on the truth.

You must release the idea that the media and the elite have any shred of concern for reality or truth. They seek to impose their vision for the truth on everyone else. Period.

Pollsters are fabricating their polls to reflect the reality they desire. They likely know the truth; Trump is leading. But they will fight to change the reality until it cannot be denied.

TGreen said...


In a polarized electorate, actually asking the poll questions is a formality.

What matters is the turnout model chosen. This cycle, honest modeller say,
"I haven't got a clue" and go on hiatus. What is left are GIGO (Garbage in,
Gospel Out) polls re-re-re-adjusting their turnout model.

Sherm said...

Once upon a time I was a professional pollster. We dealt with consumer products not politics but the experience soured me on the reliability of asking what people thought. Every year samples became less reliable more adjustments had to be made to approximate "the truth." Every year I was less confident in the truth we told. Very soon, if we're not there already, we'll be back to the days of the Literary Digest poll of 1936. It'll be sort of refreshing.

Josh O said...

It's not hard see where these questions come from when the side the party heads and corrupt media back is lead by someone as criminal and treasonous as clinton and the biased moderators ask weird unprecedented things like "will you recognize and accept it if the other person wins?" in the debate, when every day more evidence of vote fraud appears all over the country and the party in power fights ID every step of the way and works to get more and more non-citizens into the country as quick as they can. Clinton by herself stinks to high heaven but combined with all the other stuff coming out the past year or so it makes you wonder if the people Not asking questions and getting pissed about this stuff are the ones who need the foil hat.

David said...

Trump should point out that he was a Democrat and Hillary supporter at the time he committed all these nefarious deeds. Since then, he has reformed himself and become a better person.

Dirk said...

Excellent thought, David.

Anonymous said...

Never trust a NYC Jew who works for the NYT

I smell a rat.

Don't trust Nate Silver at all.

Don't believe me, he is not honest just ask Phillip Weis with Mondweis


Anonymous said...

I think that it would be better for the Shillster to win ... OK hear me out on this one.

If Trump wins, then hew will be an impotent president - the bureaucracy and both parties are against him and it will be virtually impossible for him to change much, if anyhing, of the present set up.

Within the next four years, the pigeons will come home to roost regarding the 20 trillion dollars of debt, the 120 trillion of unfunded liabilities, the collapse of the healthcare system, Black Lives Matter causing riots, destroying cities etc. all engendered by the Democrats over the last 8 years.

When it happens, Trump will be blamed and the Democrats will crow about all the problems being caused by Trump. I have seen this happen in the UK where the outgoing Labour (left wing, socialists) left a note in the treasury saying "There is no money left" AND SIGNED BY THE LABOUR HEAD OF THE TREASURY! A week later it was "Evil Tory Government not doing X, Y, Z".

It is definitely a poisoned chalice for whoever gets into the White House. No, the Democrats have sown the wind, let THEM reap the whirlwind, not Trump. It will be like bursting a boil but the relief afterwards will be enormous. After the next election perhaps someone like Trump can start to pick up the pieces. But in the meantime, let the Democrats be hoist on their own petard.

Phil B

tycho said...

Peter, you just made the round trip to Colorado. Can you estimate the number of Trump signs and stickers to Hillary signs and stickers? I'm in south Mississippi and have not traveled any last couple or years. Its all Trump in a 100 mile radius here. 90+%.

Peter said...

@tycho: We saw very few signs and stickers, because our journey was through largely empty country and small town business districts; but of those we did see, I'd say pro-Trump outnumbered pro-Hillary by at least five to one.

Anonymous said...

During the entire course of this currently-running-down-to-the-wire electoral (madness) season, Nate Silver and the Mystical Monkees Of FiveThreeEight have been near-unrelentingly, almost-invariably wrong in their prognosticatering philanderment - don't think so? You can Look It Up! (Although you cannot do so on their own site, in all likelihood - they don't like to reveal their repeatedly erroneous-zone floppolas...Surprise!!) I strongly suspect a solid chance their "record" may well hold true.

There's only one "poll" that's at all worthwhile - that's the one that has already begun in the "early-voting" States, and with the Absent Ballots, the finish of which happens early next month.

Only really big danger is if the pro-Trump voters are insufficient in numbers to push the totals in States where the voting-fraud dangers are real - and there are a scary number of those - beyond the point where the fraud can overcome the difference...if it's too close, the Hillary/Democrat/NeverTrump Ninnies will steal it!!

If you have need of any further encouragement to push you into voting for Trump - keep in mind: No matter what else takes place or does not transpire, the next POTUS WILL nominate (and doubtless confirm) at least one Supreme Court Justice - to fill the current vacancy - and quite likely will do the same for at least one (perhaps as many as two or even three) more of the same...that will make immediate and long-term (for a generation or even more) change to a Court that, overall, is already far more Left/"Liberal"/anti-Constitutional than is either safe or advisable for the future well-being of our sadly-tattered Republic...Take care: This alone would make a Clinton win, due to whatever means, particularly ill-advised.

On the plus-side: Until the recent hurricane tail-end blew 'em all down, here in Coastal S.E. NC, there were many, many Trump signs, and no Clinton ones - this in an area where, in the past, were seen quite a few Obama car-stickers and signs. The Trump signs are now slowly re-appearing - but no Clinton to be seen!...

North Carolina

Anonymous said...

Will the Trumpsters turn out to vote?

More importantly, will the losing side believe the election was fair? Ever since the Hanging Chads of 2000 there have been increasing doubts about the reliability and impartiality of the voting process. How do we restore faith in the ballot box?


Rick T said...

Here is a data point for the accuracy of the recent polls. I actually answered the questions for the last polling company to call. Answered, but I hit #1 for EVERY answer, regardless of the question. So now I'm a female Hispanic between 18-25 who will vote for Hillary.... That is my plan for every poll call up to the election, give them noise data.

Garbage in. My bet is 90% of the responses for the polls are the same quality.

tycho said...

Thanks for the answer. I miss working construction (injured in car wreck now disabled) I'm not as in touch with things like i was.
Congrats on new kitten! Looks like an awesome addition for the family.