Monday, February 10, 2020

The easy way to lower crime rates - fudge the statistics!

The Chicago Sun-Times points out that crime statistics for that city are being deliberately "fudged" by manipulating them.  This is, of course, a problem nation-wide, not just in the Windy City;  but it's good to see the issue brought out in public.

Closing more murder cases even though no one was arrested pumped up the high clearance rate the Chicago Police Department has touted, a Chicago Sun-Times analysis finds.

The police department cleared more murder cases in 2019 that didn’t result in an arrest than it has done in years, the Sun-Times found ... of the 261 murders that the police signed off on as having been cleared last year, 152 were closed “exceptionally” — what the department labels “CCX” for “cleared, closed exceptionally,” meaning no one was charged.

That means there was no arrest in 58% of the cleared homicide investigations.

. . .

When someone the police believe committed a murder has died or when prosecutors reject murder charges, the police department’s policy is to clear those cases exceptionally.

Chief police spokesman Anthony Guglielmi says the reason for the high percentage of CCXes last year is that prosecutors are rejecting murder charges more frequently.

According to the Cook County state’s attorney’s data, prosecutors rejected about 25 percent of the murder cases the Chicago police presented in 2019, compared with 14 percent in 2015.

There's more at the link.

The Second City Cop blog, which famously documents the real state of affairs in Chicago's Police Department compared to the "official" picture of what's going on, is caustic in its analysis.

We've been writing about this in one form or another since the beginning of the blog. McCompStat's [former CPD Superintendent Garry McCarthy] entire career was built on falsifying crime data to the point a couple of ex-top cops in New York wrote the definitive book about it and teach come college courses regarding it.

Clear murders by blaming a dead shooter? Why not? He can't sue you for defamation, and what moron is actually going to step up and claim credit for a murder the Department has already buried?

Again, more at the link.  It's worth clicking over there and reading the comments following that article, many of them by serving Chicago cops, who are fully aware of the realities of the situation and just as unhappy about it as the anonymous SCC bloggers.

This is, as I said earlier, an endemic problem in US law enforcement.  By "massaging" the crime statistics, the politicians in charge (and their top law enforcement bureaucrats) make themselves look better to the electorate.  The only answer is to uncover the deceptions they foster, and expose them for the liars they are.  At least that way informed residents can understand for themselves the danger from crime, and take steps to minimize their exposure to it - and their means to counter it, if it should confront them.

Moral of the story:  If you live in Chicago, don't trust its "official" crime statistics.  If you live in any major US city (particularly those controlled by a Democratic Party machine and/or administration), don't trust its "official" crime statistics.  They're almost certainly unreliable, to put it mildly.



Miguel GFZ said...

Exactly the same way that Broward's Sheriff's Office became the powerhouse in the Florida County. They fudged stats and then went to the small cities telling them "We are superman, you don't need your podunk force. Hire us."
Many did and they are now paying more than cash.

Sam L. said...

How many major cities are run by Republicans?

Beans said...

Then there's the easiest way to fudge crime stats. It is the way most European nations use, and now California and New York are doing.

Which is to simply decriminalize criminal behavior.

Petty Theft (move marker to under a $1,000)? A civil ticket.

Vehicle burlary (no matter amount)? A civil ticket.

non-violent Assault? (what? yes, it's real.) A civil ticket.

Manslaughter? Civil ticket.

Arson? Vandalism? Hate crime against Christians? Rape (against Christians or conservatives)? Most any crime against Christians or conservatives)?

Civil ticket.

Which means... criminal pays a fine. How does criminal pay fine? By two methods.

Method 1) Commit crime to get cash...

Method 2) Ignore the fine. Which results in... a civil ticket, which...

Yeah. This is how you can have grenade attacks, rapes, murders(that are listed as not murders) and still say you are far safer than small town America.

Decriminalize everything. Sex and people trafficking, drug use, domestic violence, whatever.

Poof. With one or several pieces of legislation now you are crime free. And your prison and jail population is reduced. Oh, look how evil those Americans are, with so many criminals and so many in jail and prison...

You see the same in many communities where the city leaders and the court system make the local LEOs ignore crime, either directly by telling the cops to knock off enforcing a crime or by just not prosecuting crimes.

And all it does, all all of this does, is embolden the criminals.

Like in California. There is now no encouragement to not steal from a store as long as it's under a thousand dollars.

All of which disencourages the victims from reporting any crime, which means less reports of crimes which means less crime, right?

Saw this working at the local PD. Saw the gradual spiraling down of law enforcement.

And they wonder why we want to keep our guns.

KurtP said...

The Liberal mayor of San Antonio found another way to lower crime stats- Trade a crime ridden area to Converse for a different plot of land, then clain in your next re-election campaign to have been hard on crime.

MNW said...

Philly has been caught doing it a few times. It was bad enough that that it was noted in the FBI UCR fir a few tears.

The PD commissioner was pissed about being called a liar by the FBI.