Monday, September 19, 2022

Inflation watch: Argentina as a bellwether for what might happen here

 

Those of us who've lived in high-inflation societies are watching what's happening today in the USA with a certain cynical sense of déjà vu.  We've seen it all before.

The current effective annual US inflation rate (forget the official numbers - they're falsified - and look to more authoritative sources such as Shadowstats, or do your own calculations) of approximately 20%-plus is scary enough:  but it's nowhere near as bad as it may get in the not too distant future.  As an example, consider Argentina.


The Argentinian national bank this week raised interest rates to 75% in a desperate bid to tamp down on the country’s still-spiraling consumer inflation rate.

The Banco de la Nación Argentina hiked the rates after national data indicated a year-over-year inflation rate of just under 80%, a crushing spike that has desperately squeezed consumers in the South American country. 

The bank told Bloomberg that its board of directors “intends to reduce the level of short-term debt held by the central bank next year,” the outlet reported.


There's more at the link.

Just think about those numbers for a moment.  Imagine that the buying power of every dollar in your possession on January 1st of any year - i.e. 100 cents - will be worth one-fifth as much - a mere 20 cents - on December 31st of that same year.  Would your income have risen enough to compensate?  I venture to doubt it.  It's soul-destroying, absolutely crushing fiscal oppression.

I've experienced that in other societies, and worse.  (Friends of mine saw Zimbabwean hyperinflation at its peak, and that was hideous!)  If you think that can't happen here . . . if you think it won't happen here, despite our government printing dollars like there's no tomorrow . . . then you don't understand the situation.  It could happen here in a heartbeat.

Plan accordingly, and prepare as best you can.  There aren't any really good ways to prepare, but the necessities you buy today, at today's prices, with today's dollars, are at least assets in your possession.  If (when?) the time comes that you can't afford them at tomorrow's prices, you can fall back on what you've set aside today.  That may be a vital necessity for most of us.

Peter


7 comments:

Mind your own business said...

Now add to that the Venezuelans are taking a play out of Castro's playbook and emptying their prisons and sending those people north to enter the US. Marielitos II, here we come.

Is there a term for hyperinflation combined with soaring crime rates? Besides " Biden's term in office?"

MNW said...

Build Back Better. Implies that they destroyed what was there first

tweell said...

This came out 40 years ago, but aside from the differences in prices (more now) still holds up. The Alpha Strategy by John Pugsley
Link is to .pdf, paper copy is available on Amazon.

https://web.archive.org/web/20110717110745/http://www.biorationalinstitute.com/zcontent/alpha_strategy.pdf

bultaco1495 said...

In past posts, there has sometimes been included a graph that shows the Consumer Price Index (from the government) versus the Shadowstats statistics (reality), often displaying year by year numbers (e.g., the last ten years or so). Is something like that available? [Clicking on the Shadowstats website does not show anything similar].

bultaco1495 said...
This comment has been removed by the author.
James said...

Prepare for the inevitable food and other essentials, self defense items to keep what you have, shiny metals that don't lose their value.

Peter said...

@bultaco1945: Try this link.

http://www.shadowstats.com/alternate_data/inflation-charts