Wednesday, September 28, 2022

"The Death of Germany, and Europe"

 

That's how Michael Yon views the sabotage of the Nord Stream pipelines near Germany a few days ago.  He doesn't pull his punches.


At this point in history, to destroy the possibility of re-opening Nord Stream 1 (NS1), and opening NS2, all but assures massive famines and detailed destruction of European economy that normally only will be seen in war.

Nothing short of nuclear war will destroy a nation more completely, more intergenerationally, than turning off the energy followed by famine. Famines burn through the souls of nations. Just read five random books on famine.

Germany’s deal with the devil was a deal with themselves. Accepting the cheap Russian gas like cocaine straight to the bloodstream. To be sure, there were extreme benefits to manufacturing using cheaper, easier energy. Such as in the automotive industry.

You may notice some leaders now blame Russian for addicting Germany, as if Russia were a drug dealer and the pipelines are Russian needles into the arms of German children. But in fact Russia also wanted to sell gas to earn money. And Russia did NOT want to shut NS1, and frequently encouraged Germany to open NS2.

But the United States warned Germany many times — including Trump’s clear warnings — about Russian dependency. The Germans laughed at Trump. Video of The Laughing will go down in history.

It strongly appears United States has destroyed NS1 and NS2. Facts remain uncertain but Biden and his crew of thugs made clear on multiple occasions that something would happen at least to NS2. If only so much effort were applied to interrupting the fentanyl crossing America’s southern border and stopping the invasion that Americans will be forced to stop themselves.

Biden likewise made an open threat against Americans that he is willing to use F-15s on Americans. You likely have seen the not-subtle video.

Germany will freeze this winter. The hunger games will begin in 2023. By winter 2023-24, Germans and others will be freezing and very hungry, and possibly already into actual famine. And by winter 2024-25, profound famine almost certainly will ravage at least parts of Europe. Long flash to bang, but that bang is coming.

Germans and their multi-kulti invaders will devour the Black Forest and roast long-pig over their cuckoo clocks.

Keep eyes on Norwegian flows. An interruption of Norwegian flows would be another chest shot for Europe.

After the attacks on NS1 and NS2, all infrastructure is on the table. EMP strikes in space could lead to quick famine across North America. Undersea cables.

USA is extremely vulnerable. Rail strikes alone could contribute to near-term famine in United States.


There's more at the link.

I haven't commented on the Nord Stream sabotage until now, because I've been trying to get more information about the strikes.  It certainly looks as if undersea drones made the strikes, either by blowing themselves up next to the pipeline, or (more likely, IMHO, because it leaves no wreckage that can be recovered, analyzed, and used as evidence) dropping demolition charges on or next to the pipeline, then returning to base before they exploded.  There are several nations in the area, including Germany, France and the UK, that could do something like that;  but none of them are likely suspects.  It's not a capability they routinely exercise.  The USA, on the other hand, has meddled with undersea pipelines and cables for decades (literally), going way back to Cold War days, and at least some of its nuclear submarines are equipped to make such an attack.  Russia can say the same, but why would it attack its own pipelines, and threaten its own potential export earnings through them?

For that matter, the explosives might already have been in place.  Back in June, it was reported that the US Navy was conducting underwater operations in the Baltic Sea, off the island of Bornholm - where the explosions took place.


In support of BALTOPS, U.S. Navy 6th Fleet partnered with U.S. Navy research and warfare centers to bring the latest advancements in unmanned underwater vehicle mine hunting technology to the Baltic Sea to demonstrate the vehicle’s effectiveness in operational scenarios.

Experimentation was conducted off the coast of Bornholm, Denmark, with participants from Naval Information Warfare Center Pacific, Naval Undersea Warfare Center Newport, and Mine Warfare Readiness and Effectiveness Measuring all under the direction of U.S. 6th Fleet Task Force 68. 

BALTOPS is an ideal location for conducting mine hunting experimentation due to the region’s unique environmental conductions such as low salinity and varying bottom types. It is also critical to evaluate emerging mine hunting UUV technology in the Baltic due to its applicability with allied and partner nations. This year experimentation was focused on UUV navigation, teaming operations, and improvements in acoustic communications all while collecting critical environmental data sets to advance the automatic target recognition algorithms for mine detection.  

“In prior BALTOPS we demonstrated advanced capabilities to detect, reacquire and collect images of mine contacts, and transfer those images in near real-time to operators through the use of a specialized Office of Naval Research UUV,” said Anthony Constable, Office of Naval Research science advisor to U.S. 6th Fleet. “This year, through the work of NIWC Pacific and NUWC Newport, we are showing that this capability can be integrated into programs of record by executing complex multi-vehicle UUV missions with modified U.S. Navy fleet assets.” 

An additional critical objective was to continue to increase the communication range and data transfer capability to give the operators more flexibility in mine hunting operations. Advancements in communication technology, demonstrated this year, have shown a significant improvement in operating ranges over currently used systems. This provides additional standoff flexibility to the U.S. Navy in conducting safe mine hunting operations. 

BALTOPS also provides a unique opportunity for the U.S. research, development and acquisition communities to exercise the current and emerging UUV technology in real-world operational environments.


Again, more at the link.

What better cover could have been provided for reconnoitering the Nord Stream pipelines prior to an attack, and even perhaps placing explosives to be detonated whenever convenient?

On the basis of probability, there's a great big red arrow pointing at the USA over these attacks.  Whether or not it can be proved is basically irrelevant at this point:  it's what people are going to assume.  After all, cui bono?  Who benefits?  A German economy starved of energy, and now without the capability of turning on its Russian gas supply again for at least a year, is economically in a catastrophic situation.  The same can be said of Europe as a whole.  The Nord Stream pipelines didn't only supply Germany.  That means the threat of industrial collapse in Europe is now very, very real, particularly as politicians have already put commerce and industry on notice that if it comes to a choice between keeping production going, and keeping their citizens warm in a freezing European winter, production will go to the wall.  All of those considerations mean that US manufacturing and production suddenly occupy a vastly more important position in Europe's economy.  They might literally stand between Europe and starvation.

Meanwhile, of course, Russia is left with a rather more clear-cut situation.  It can no longer wield "energy blackmail" as a tool against Western Europe;  so it can turn to the military option in the certainty that it doesn't have any other worthwhile (i.e. potentially winning) policy choices.  If I were Ukraine, I'd be looking to my lines of retreat right now.  I think we're about to see Russia apply brutal, slogging siege warfare tactics, regardless of the cost, and I suspect Ukraine's days are numbered.  If Russia leaves anything of Ukraine, it'll be an inland rump state, shorn of access to the Black Sea and deprived of its industrial base.  Russia will likely do that because it dare not lose this war.  If it does, Putin's rule will be over, and the nation as a whole will accelerate its ongoing collapse, demographically, economically and culturally.  Putin needs a focus for his people, and the war will provide it.

What China will do in the meanwhile is anybody's guess.  As I've said before, I suspect Taiwan can't last long.  While the rest of the world is distracted over Europe, China will make its move.  If it succeeds, there goes the world's biggest source of microchips and the technology associated with them;  and if Taiwan succeeds in destroying its fabrication and research plants before China can occupy them, that means a decade when every nation on earth will face a desperate shortage of them.  That, in turn, means that our "smart" weapons and machinery and vehicles and appliances will suddenly be a whole lot less smart.

Those three explosions on the Nord Stream pipelines - and whoever carried them out - will be responsible for all that.

Sadly, the times in which we live have just become a whole lot more interesting . . .

Peter


31 comments:

John Fisher said...

I would add Poland to the list of 'who benefits' as a proxy for the Eastern European countries that certainly don't want Germany to cut a neutrality deal over Ukraine with Russia to get their gas turned back on. I had been expecting the Germans to cut a deal in the next 6 weeks or so. Given their long history along the Baltic, and their growing military in many other areas, the Poles may well have the means as well. None of this rules the US out though.

An alternate theory is that the Russians did it to give Gasprom an out to avoid a future contract default. Less likely, but possible. As with many other things in the world, we will probably never know.

CDH said...

First off, reparing underwater leaks (even sections of the pipelines) would take weeks, not years, so the extreme predictions are ridiculous on their face. It will require ongoing attacks to create a long term outage. The open sea is simply impossible to patrol, so it is an attack of convenience. Underwater repairs of sections of pipeline are, while not simple nor trivial, well understood and equipment for such is fairly readily available. Pipe is cheap and readily available. A far longer term interruption would be the destruction of the pumping and control infrastructure. Large high pressure valves and pumps like that take months to years to build and spares are likely not readily available.

John Fisher said...

I really don't expect China to invade Taiwan. Taiwan likely has one card the Ukrainians didn't - nuclear weapons. They and Israel both supported the South African nuclear program in the 70s and 80s and they certainly have the technical capability. The prospect of the Three Gorges Dam and Shanghai disappearing in bright flashes probably give Xi a lot more pause than anything Brandon says.

If the Ukrainians had lost a couple of nukes in a 'tragic boating accident' in the 90s, they wouldn't be invaded today.

The Freeholder said...

CDH beat me to it. If they can put the pipeline down in the first place, then it can be repaired. The leaks are in 70 M water, so this won't even be hard for the professionals.

As far as who did it, all is speculation. I wouldn't put it past the Russians to have implanted remotely detonatable explosives as a fail-safe measure, in case they somehow lost control of the pipeline.

I'm looking at this as more of a diversion than a big deal.

Peteforester said...

I agree with CDH. Running a pipeline under the sea brings with it the possibility of damage, rust-through, and the like. You KNOW the men, materials, and machines are available to repair the damage.

Tucker Carlson was going on and on about this being a natural disaster, as if the ability to SHUT OFF THE PIPELINE was not available.

...Enough of the drama...

...My guess the PHYSICAL damage will be repaired in weeks. The diplomatic damage, however, may very well be the true spark to light the powder. As stated above, everyone's pointing fingers at Uncle Sam as the perpetrator right now. It doesn't matter whether the US did it or not. It's the PERCEPTION that counts. Of course, it doesn't help that the senile arrogant ass in the White House alluded to the possibility of doing this months ago. Biden wants a war. He's wanted a war since taking office. Well, Hairsniffer In Chief, your mouth may have just gotten you one...

Aaron said...

Anyone really think Biden has the acumen, not to mention the guts to try and sabotage the pipelines? Not to mention towards what end, as he was all for Nordstream 2 long before he was against it, and he tends to like Europe and Germany a lot, and is hardly going to harm their energy supply.

If anything, this may be Russian action to shut off the supply without it looking like they deliberately turned off the supply to further pressure Western Europe to cease supporting Ukraine. Or it could be some famous lack of Russian maintenance and servicing of the pipelines causing them to blow up in their faces.

Blufield said...

The Democrats are the Axis of Evil.

Glen Filthie said...

“… It can no longer wield "energy blackmail" as a tool against Western Europe…”

Nonsense. Peter, if the adults in the room came to an agreement today, they could start shipping oil tomorrow by rail and truck and it will be in Germany next week.

Get a grip.

Aesop said...

"The USA, on the other hand, has meddled with undersea pipelines and cables for decades (literally), going way back to Cold War days, and at least some of its nuclear submarines are equipped to make such an attack. Russia can say the same, but why would it attack its own pipelines, and threaten its own potential export earnings through them?"

Oh please, Peter, don't be childishly naïve.
Firstly, anybody with a rowboat, 20 pounds of Semtex, and 500 feet of det cord was equipped to make this attack.
That narrows it down to 150 countries and 58 terrorist groups.

1) The US is conducting publicly acknowledged USNavy undersea ops in the area.
2) Russia, having already cut off shipments through the pipeline(s), stands to lose nothing further from their demolition.
3) But by blowing them up themselves, and planting suspicion that the US did so, gains them
a) instant victimhood,
b) sets European voices against the US, dividing the alliance in about 2 seconds, and
c) provides Russia with casus belli for more direct action, after Operation Canned Goods 3.0.

Asking why Russia would do this is a silly as claiming Shrillary had no reason to plant the Russian dossier around Trump's neck in 2016, and equally and facilely risible.

The ones with the most to gain from blowing up the pipeline was Russia.

This is Dirty Tricks 101: Shoot yourself in the foot, claim it was enemy action, play the victim.

Emperor Stumblef**k Poopypants shooting his idiot mouth off beforehand just made this overwhelmingly obvious Russian op about as challenging to them as kicking retarded kids.

Now tell me why that didn't happen, because it's impossible, or even mildly improbable, based on actual facts and historical behavior.

This doesn't benefit Europe.
It doesn't benefit the US.
It totally benefits Russia.

That took 0.2 seconds to work out.

Occam's Razor therefore names Russia as the culprit.
QED

Any other assumption, absent an open admission of guilt, or a smoking gun in someone's hand on videotape, is quite simply preposterous.

Bobo the Hobo said...

I recall during the election Biden got a case of the ass and bluntly told some blue collar worker who didn’t like what Biden was saying, “I don’t need your vote. No joke.”

The trouble is his handlers (or whoever is responsible for putting him in office) keep telling him information that should remain secret. Because his brain is shot from multiple injections of … whatever, he just blurts out whatever comes to mind … not that he has ever displayed any self-control.

Joe Biden will remain in office until he can no longer sit upright and breathe and then they will allow him to exit office (depending on how much sympathy they need, it could be at room temperature) and will shove his replacement into the position … which does not necessarily mean Kamala.

I believe he told the truth and we sabotaged the pipeline.

Fredrick said...

Total casualties amongst the neocons in all the wars they have helped start or promote is what, zero? There may be a lot of death and destruction, but not amongst the players of the Great Game.

Mind your own business said...

I have little doubt that the US did this. They (we) are really the only beneficiary, since we want to prevent peace talks. I'm ashamed of my government. And if they've antagonized the Russians into retaliating against us, all I can say is that we earned it. Let's hope saner heads prevail, but obviously those saner heads don't exist on our side.

And further, once seawater gets into the pipeline, repairs will be both difficult, expensive, and an ongoing nightmare for years. Repairing underwater versus initial installation are two very different processes.

Mind your own business said...

"Total casualties amongst the neocons in all the wars they have helped start or promote is what, zero? "

Um, no.
Iraq. Afghanistan. Somalia. To name just a few.

Rob said...

John Fisher said...
>>If the Ukrainians had lost a couple of nukes in a 'tragic boating accident' in the 90s, they wouldn't be invaded today.<<

That's a fact!

Rob said...

Aaron said...
>>Anyone really think Biden has the acumen, not to mention the guts to try and sabotage the pipelines? <<

Biden is a mouthpiece, sad to say but it's true. No idea who is actually running things, a cabal maybe?

Dov Sar said...

Who did it? I feel it's like the scene in Princess Bride with the Iocane Powder.......

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9s0UURBihH8

roamer said...

As Peter said, who benefits? And who had the technical capability to pull off an attack like this?

The idea of Russia benefiting from this is idiotic on it's face. Russia desperately needs hard currency for trade, especially if it's illicit trade. Not having a source for dollars means being cut off from that.

So, rephrase the question. Who benefits from Russia being involuntarily cut off from trade with the West?

Her other trading partners, of course. China, North Korea, India, Iran. There are others, but these are the people who MIGHT be able to pull off this attack from a technical standpoint. (Anyone who thinks this attack was trivial or quick knows nothing about diving or demolitions. A 70 meter deep dive is something done by professionals who understand the deadly risks involved.)

The big issue here is the distance involved. It takes time and resources to position the gear you would need to do this kind of job, as well as the people. I can't see Iran doing this, it would be a large distraction and it invites direct retaliation that the US would be overjoyed to assist with. India or NK might or might not have personnel of the quality needed, but they would stick out like a sore thumb in any of the countries around the attack site. NK also likely couldn't afford the cost of the attack preparation. India couldn't afford the reputational hit.

This leaves China. China benefits HUGELY from this, and from the damage to Germany and the EU. The fallout from this attack, if the US seriously blamed, might actually fracture NATO. Damage to the EU is likely given Germany's dire situation - I can't see France failing to take advantage of this.

Oh, and it's FAR too early to be talking about how long it will take to repair the pipelines. They won't even have begun examining the damage yet, because they need to ensure there aren't more explosives down there. (Amusingly, the group best equipped for doing this, the US Navy Underwater Demolitions Teams (UDT) are surely the ones having the finger pointed at them for the destruction.) I am willing to bet against a quick repair. Any explosion that registers 3 on the Richter scale isn't going to be fixed in weeks.

Unknown said...

Mine "hunting" HAHAHAHAHA

Rick said...

There I was in a room full of seismographs at Cal Tech when I noticed a 3.1 quake was happening in real time.

Oh that?, said Miss Geologist, PhD who was the room monitor.
That's a truck rumbling by about one mile from the seismometer in the field. There is a project under construction nearby.

There's what a 3.1 is.

HMS Defiant said...

the silent service. I'm with you. I think they did it too.

Timbotoo said...

If only they had some nuclear power plants that they could bring back on line.

Dave said...

The US benefits tremendously from the destruction of both these pipelines. We are already shipping LNG to Europe. The news reports Baltic ports want to expand or develop new LNG facilities and depending on the court decisions the facilities will be built quickly or be involved in decades long fights. Also reported is that Excelerate, a Houston based company, is providing Wilhelmshaven with a fifth floating storage and regasification unit (FSRU). Those are ships which allow the LNG to be processed and put into existing pipelines in Germany in a similar manner to tanker trucks filling up the local gas station tanks.

The article pointed out that as European manufacturing declines, America stands to benefit tremendously. Volkswagen is attempting to move manufacturing to Asia. Aluminum manufacturers are closing because the cost of manufacturing the product exceeds the selling price. France's largest glass manufacturer is shutting down for the same reason. These are just small examples of what is already occurring throughout the EU manufacturing sector.

The EU stands to fall apart with their reliance on green renewable energy without Russian gas. America benefits as the European banks will be even more beholding to the Federal Reserve bankers. All of which puts America back in the driver's seat in Europe and opens the door for another rebuilding of Europe by the US giving America a huge boost in our economy.

The Cold War thinkers here blaming everything on Russia, Russia, Russia are not looking at the facts in today's world. It takes more than 0.2 seconds to examine the problem and QED doesn't cut it. Those supporting the Ukrainian conflict are not closely examining the big picture. The Neocons, NWO supporters do not suffer a tiny bit from world events. They are not bothered by the lack of energy because they are insulated from the every day events that we face. They are not bothered by food prices. They don't sweat and don't shed a single drop of blood.

The loss of these pipelines is of great benefit to the US.

Unknown said...

As near as I can tell, Russia stopped sending gas down the one working pipeline before the beginning of September, pointing to various maintenance problems, after cutting the flow significantly earlier. They offered to send gas down the newer pipeline, but only if Canada broke sanctions by sending them some key piece of equipment they had in Canada being repaired.

All of that sounds to me as though the Russians don't want gas flowing through those pipelines at the moment Allowing a flow now lets Europe top off their natural gas storage before winter. Russia's interest at the moment is to hold off on sending gas while not making it any more bleedingly obvious that they are using the gas to force policy changes in Europe. The less gas they send now, the more power that gas gives them toward the end of the winter, when European gas reserves are down and Europe is desperate for gas.

If the Russians did it, expect the repairs to take a matter of months, whether or not they actually have to--January or February 2023 would be ideal for the Russians. If someone did it who seriously wanted the Russians not to have the option of sending gas to Europe, expect the attack to have taken out something more than pipe, something the Russians can't supply for themselves.

PeterW said...

Peter...

You have now heard a very convincing explanation regarding the high probability that the pipeline explosions were due to incompetence and poor maintenance by GAZPROM.
Brought to you by the same engineering culture that gave us Chernobyl.

I’ll let you post links...
They will not be popular with those infected by Biden-Derangement-Syndrome.

Unknown said...

So three near-simultaneous explosions in three separate areas were due to mtce failures? LOL..

froginblender said...

One is coincidence. Two is happenstance. Three is ...

AJ said...

Russia for sure. The message to western EU is "Stop helping Ukraine or experience total economic, industrial & social collapse." Nordstream 2 is built & ready to replace it in hours/days. Obey Russia & pay the required money & Nordstream 2 will be turned on, and Western EU continues. Russia is self-sufficient for food & energy. Western EU is not...

Chris Nelson said...

Noticed the usual "Russia, Russia, Russia" Democratic/Red Dawn shills came out.

First High Admiral Aesop:
"Firstly, anybody with a rowboat, 20 pounds of Semtex, and 500 feet of det cord was equipped to make this attack."

You sound vaccinated and triple boosted. Not likely considering the heavy duty construction, depth of the pipeline and the number of explosions. The Germans estimated 3, possibly 4 explosions as powerful as 500 lbs of TNT.

The biggest and mostly likely culprit is the US Navy, which held exercises in the area early this year with multiple tracks directly over the area. Also there was a USN P-8A with a bogus transponder ID loitering directly over the area before and during time window of the explosions. The explosives could have come from the submersibles that were active months ago, or torpedoes from either submerged or air borne assets. Maybe several Mark 46s.

Plus the Obama/Biden regime has made multiple oblique statements and warnings that the pipelines would taken care of... This is the same evil crew that stole an election, killed/damaged millions through mandatory clot-shots, overthrows countries, arms Nazis, refuses to defend their citizens, but threatened 75 million of them with F-16s and nuclear weapons. (Not to mention funding ISIS.) They have the most motivation, the most means and are repeat offenders in causing death and mayhem. Plus are backed by the global depopulation elite.

Antibubba said...

It could just as easily been the Russians.

Peter said...

I note that Lawdog has made a strong case for the pipeline explosions being due to faulty maintenance and/or operation:

https://thelawdogfiles.com/2022/09/nordstream.html

We don't know, of course: facts are thin on the ground at this point.

However, I want to see underwater photographs of the breaks in the pipeline. They should prove conclusively whether the damage was caused from outside (i.e. sabotage) or inside (i.e. faulty maintenance or operation). You see, if the breach in the pipeline is from the outside in, it has to have been caused by an external explosive device. If it's from the inside out, it's most likely an internal (i.e. maintenance) problem. The jagged edges of the metal will tell the tale.

Until we see those images, we can only guess.

Chris Nelson said...

"what was the US Flagged P8-Poseidon (antisubmarine warfare equipped 737) doing flying over the bombed pipeline at the time the pipeline was bombed? The P8 carries air-dropped torpedoes

then why did the second explosion occur exactly 17 hours later? Was a boat used to drop a second charge and it took hours for boat to reach the target point?

was that during the time the P8 was loitering over the area where the second charge exploded? why did the track for the aircraft go silent from a bit after 3UTC until about 6:30UTC when the aircraft retraced its inbound path?

Why is this data available online for the entire world to see and why is NO ONE TALKING ABOUT IT????

make sure the track is set to 9/26 date and you can watch the flight path at 40x speed by clicking buttons on left side pane if viewing on desktop high rez monitor"

https://globe.adsbexchange.com/?icao=ae6851&lat=55.956&lon=8.159&zoom=6.1&showTrace=2022-09-26&timestamp=1664152592