"Simplicius The Thinker" has published an article on his Substack blog discussing various aspects of the conflict between Israel and the Arab world. It's worth reading in full, but one aspect of it that struck me was his brief analysis of the demographics involved.
You see, the Arab world is becoming incommensurately stronger every day. Arabs are no longer the weak pawns of the 20th century, to be used at whim by the British Empire, which itself now lies smoldering.
The most important dimension to this is the fact that Israelis are being outbred. Their TFRs cannot compete not only with Palestinians, but with the Arab world at large. Palestinians themselves are now upwards of 5 million in population while Israel only has 9 and a half, only ~7M of which are Jews.
But the bigger issue are Israel’s top historical adversaries. Egypt, for instance, had ~20 something million people during the Arab-Israeli wars of the 60s era. It now sports 110M and is set to be over 200M by 2050-2070. In that same time, Israel is projected to only be 13-16M or so. Even Palestinians will vastly outnumber their Israeli occupiers by then. Furthermore, the U.S./UK/Atlanticist Empire which has been the linchpin holding Israel together is now weakening more than ever before, and Israel will not be able to count on their unflagging support in the future, particularly reading the tea leaves of NATO and EU slowly crumbling—neither of which will likely exist past 2030.
Now Egypt has officially joined the BRICS, its tenure set to start on January 1, 2024. Combine that with a growing Turkey, Palestine, and many other states. The fact is, within another decade or two, Israel will stand no chance at “defending itself”, or rather at illegally bombing all of its neighbors. A future Arab-Israeli war could hypothetically pit 300-500M people against a country of 12-15M.
But more specifically Palestinians themselves are simply out-breeding Israelis and would begin to pose a major problem to Israel’s expansionist plans.
This is why the conflict now has eschatological and biblical dimensions—because Israel sees the writing on the wall, their very future is in critical danger. Only by fulfilling prophecy now, establishing a strong state on the totality of the land, can they hope to thwart the natural tide rising against them.
But unfortunately, the numbers don’t lie, and in my opinion Israel is running out of time, and internal planners know they face future extinction in one form or another.
There's more at the link.
Precisely what Israel can or will do about this demographic conundrum is unclear, particularly because parts of the Arab world are now almost as technologically sophisticated as Israel. It's likely, IMHO, that at least one or two Arab states will become nuclear powers within the next decade, whether openly or (like Israel) in a quasi-covert fashion. That adds to Pakistan and Iran as Muslim nuclear powers. Will all such powers manage their nuclear weapons according to Western notions of logic and rationality? Or will they decide that wiping Israel from the face of the earth is more important, a religious requirement binding on their consciences, even if it costs them their own existence when Israel retaliates (the so-called "Samson Option")? A bilateral Middle Eastern nuclear war would almost certainly solve the demographic issue for both sides, but the spread of radiation and disruption to the oil market would almost certainly make the rest of the world pay an enormous price as well.
Demographics doomed the white minority governments of Rhodesia and South Africa. Demographics have transformed the United Kingdom from ethnically European to a kaleidoscopic mish-mash of races, cultures and religions, and is doing the same to many European nations, and seem likely to do the same to America as we admit millions upon millions of "refugees" and others to our already stratified society. (That's a factor that Israel has to take into account as well. Will the USA continue its support for Israel as the former's demographic makeup changes, and produces further political change as well? I wouldn't bet the farm on it.)
A dilemma to be studied . . . but there's no easy (or short-term) solution available. Frankly, if I were Israel, I'd be trying with might and main to develop interstellar space travel, in the hope of establishing a new homeland far beyond the reach of any other race, nationality, creed or culture. I suspect it might be the only hope for a permanent Eretz Yisrael.
Peter
22 comments:
Could there be some demographic similarities between Israel and South Africa old regime?
I got to "Israeli occupiers" and stopped reading. While there is some truth to the argument that demographics plays a role in this, I give up when the argument is dressed up propaganda.
I have wondered about this many times. Israel lives in the mouth of the lion. Not a safe place to be.
Simplicius is a simpleton.
A future Arab-Israeli war would dispatch Arabs in job lots with weapons measured in kilotons to megatons, in the opening minutes of such an eventuality.
Even their idiot leaders in Cairo, Damascus, Amman, Riyadh, etc. know this in their bones, which is why they largely lost interest in anything but NGO-sponsored terrorism, rather than open conflict, circa 1975.
The lemon isn't worth the squeeze when you stand to lose people, particularly one's entire government, in casualty numbers measured in millions to tens of millions in the blink of an eye.
Pakistan's use of their weapons is constrained by the knowledge that India awaits. They don't have a lot of wiggle room there.
Iran is setting themselves up for the Israeli strike(s) everyone thought certain years ago, suddenly enabled now by Trump's late-term decision to sell Israel air-to-air refueling capability, something they had never possessed the previous 70 years of existence, largely because the Saudis wanted Israel capabilities as an antidote to Persian adventurism and recklessness.
So much for that "demographic" advantage.
You want to talk turkey under the actual conditions on the ground that exist, let's go right on ahead.
Start with "How many nations are willing to get tens of millions of their own people, and their entire government, dissolved in fireballs in the opening hours of any hostilities with an enemy, something no nation in the world has been willing to countenance to date."
The phrase "back to the Stone Age" takes on a significance Simplicius has not yet, apparently, fully contemplated. It's just a hunch, but one suspects the israeli military has a targeting list, and a stack of suitable ordnance on hand, to restore to any and all adversaries a military and industrial capability measured in goats, sticks, and sharpened rocks. and leave a radioactive desert blocking all access to their lands for some years, in the event.
Ante up, gents.
The name of the game is Nuclear Poker.
Note Jordan's and Egypt's absolute refusal to take in anyone from Gaza.
@kamas716: Yes, it's a propaganda phrase... just like "free and fair elections" is a propaganda phrase when referring to the United States post-2020, no?
Propaganda is a fact of life. That doesn't stop it providing very useful information. You just have to read through the propaganda to get to the underlying facts.
As a side note, the UK is actually still quite ethnically homogenous--close to 90% of the population is white, and around 80% is "white British."
These are numbers resembling those of Wyoming, the Dakotas, and Montana.
That's what Mark Steyn said in his book America Alone, 2006.
Min rate of demographic survival is 2.1. All the West is under this rate.
Having spent a few years in Jordan, I can tell you that neither the people nor the government there have any use for the "palestinians". Indeed the only reason they exist is because the peanut farmer evacuated them from the Med beach back when King Hussein got tired of their threats to his country and went all "jihad" on their collective asses.
And incidentally there is an interesting trade that goes on between Jordan an Israel. Jordan imports goods from Israel and re-labels said goods as products produced in Jordan - especially food stuffs.
"That adds to Pakistan and Iran as Muslim nuclear powers."
Iran is not currently a nuclear power. They play with the idea, but so far the "powers-that-be" have put a stop to that foolishness. As most everyone with more than two brain cells to rub together knows that those idiots WILL deliver any device they knock together ASAP, the adults in the room have said NO!
For reasons that should bother you and others, the latest list of nuke players that came up on the web recently has Israel WAY DOWN near the very bottom, low enough to perhaps entice some of the ignorant and stupid ones to consider a real attack as a survivable enterprise. They had them listed as having ~ twenty warheads. Shoot, I think they probably have that many different TYPES of warheads! IIRC, the current guestimate by the real players puts them in the 400-800 warheads level. Basically, they are probably #4 by count, enough to turn a good portion of the ME into a glass surfaced parking lot that glows at night.
The population data doesn't entirely support Simplicius' conclusions.
Palestinian fertility is falling and that of Jewish Israelis is rising. This is directly driven by the Chareidi sector, where women typically average over 6 kids (and obviously this community is becoming a bigger and bigger percentage of Israel's population. Estimates are that at this rate, in 40 years they'll be half the population.) There's something else going on, though. Even Israel's secular sector has more kids than their counterparts elsewhere.
"'If an Israeli woman has fewer than three children, she feels as if she owes everyone an explanation—or an apology.' That, at any rate, is the view of a leading Israeli demographer."
Demographic trajectory is powered by the ability to feed the population. Virtually none of the mentioned ME countries other than Israel can feed theirs without importing food, fertilizer and or diesel to produce their food. Gaza & West Bank arabs are the most vulnerable. Fact.
IOW when the shtf, large population is a liability, not an advantage. Nothing says civil disorder, disease, population crash, total collapse, etc like a starving population. Entire populations can disappear in less than a month when nobody is there to make up what has been lost.
If you think everything is going great and shtf is not probable in the relative short term, you should reconsider.
The UK is a mishmash of races? Who made it so? Japan, Korea, Hungary and Poland do not experience the problems that France, the UK, Canada or the USA experience. Why is that? As for demographics, Nigeria must number 90 million. What advances in science will ever come out of Nigeria? Which market would you rather dominate Nigeria or NJ? Oh yes, numbers, does anyone believe South Africa would be ruled by blacks if its elites hadn't sold out the whites? Anyone could have foreseen the destiny of non blacks in South Africa. Just as one can safely predict the bright future of blacks in the glorious future of black tribal africa. All ready power failures are the norm in the republic. Look at the glorious example of Haiti.
It always amazes me that Nuclear Poker and international terrorism seems ALWAYS to Favor the USA, (start that chant USA,USA,USA and so on).
Like our POWERFUL Nukes can do much about terrorism INSIDE our Shopping Malls, Power Stations, Emergency Rooms and so on.
Nuclear weapons are SO POWERFUL the USA LOST the War in Afghanistan, Vietnam and every other "war" we've been in since WW2.
The enemy gets a vote, and OUR Boarder Security is NONEXISTANT.
Deal me in said the terrorists (who might even have their own nukes).
We'd do better shutting our yaps and buying more canned goods when shopping is erratically supplies and risk of a human bomb becomes the "New Normal" in America.
But Military Sportsball IS so much more enjoyable, eh?
Then you're leaving information on the table, unexamined. Your enemies' perspective are valuable, as you can see where they may target.
I would not bet that the Iranians do not have canned sunshine. Anyone gets that close and kicks out inspectors - no bet.
Last I looked, the nukes in question were in Israel, and no one said anything about the situation here, with potential (and probable to nigh-on certain) terrorists being let in unvetted, by the bushel, daily.
Notably, a quiet word circa 2002 noting to certain middle eastern monarchies that the next 9/11-style attack would likely result in the eradication of Mecca and Medina from the database of GoogleEarth for some centuries seems to have curbed the ardor of jihadis hereabouts from doing anything more than small-potatoes mass shootings for the last two decades. Vexxing for certain, but hardly world-changing.
Some people seem to think that two-decade long situation is pure happenstance.
And I have a bridge for sale, cheap.
Hamas, OTOH, seems to have forgotten their existence at all is purely at the forbearance of their hosts, who seem fixed on the idea of remedying their existence at all.
How unfortunate that like most juvenile thinkers they couldn't look two moves ahead.
This comment is crazy wrong. To begin with, Nigeria has 213 million people, and I would absolutely rather dominate that market rather than New Jersey's; second, Japan, Korea, Poland, and Hungary are all facing demographic collapse over the next few decades; third, the problems France, the UK, Canada, and the US are facing with their minorities stem from failing to actually try and integrate them (the salad bowl rather than melting pot method); and finally, permit me to point out that there was a time when it was your ancestors and mine who were the backwards savages who had never contributed anything to civilization.
This problem could have been solved in 1944. In WWII the Arab world sided with Hitler. This made them the enemies of the Allied forces. There weren't many of them back then, and their technology was pretty much nothing.
"Simplicius The Thinker" appears to be loon who thinks that recent Hamas orgy of rape, torture and murder is a false flag. I'm not sure why you are referencing him.
Isn’t it interesting how a few missed the obvious. One reads all source news to get a feel for the news one doesn’t get from CBSABCNBCPBSNPRMSNBCCNN. Simplicius has a lot of fascinating info on the real war and battles in Ukraine. He and Smoothie12 are a little bit rabid about Israel but then, who isn’t, one way or another?
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