I received an e-mail this morning from reader Chad B. He and his family have just learned a very important lesson in preparedness. He writes:
We recently moved into a new place back in May - about 20 acres, house has a water catchment system. I'm an electrician, self employed, no employees. I have invested in a portable backup generator / welder and the house comes with three 1000 gallon rain water catchment tanks for the two sides of the house, and one for the shop. We have a good stock of food, and animals on property. I mention these things just to say that we have the tools on hand should things go sideways.
But, running a business, and homeschooling 5 children all 6 and under, life gets away from you. You get into a mode of just getting by day to day when work gets busy, the animals get into breeding season, and you have to stock up everything for the winter. Especially when the house wasn't kept well by the previous people living in it, and you're having to make constant repairs.
On Tuesday the local water company, without any warning, shut off the water in the middle of our animal chores, citing that we had a massive leak of 588,600 gallons over the last 30 days. The kitchen was covered with dirty dishes, the stock tank 3/4 full, we weren't set up for using the catchment system regularly (but luckily one of the repairs was making sure it worked!), and all the floors in the house were a mess.
We quickly realized we had no real, workable plan for not contaminating our Berkey filter. We had no clean dishes for eating, no easy way to bath, no sanitation plans in place for dishes, no plan on how to teach little children how to act in this new situation.
We probably spent 3/4 of a day and 50 gallons of water just prepping for actually living in this new environment, with me having to take off work, and having to jump back and forth between a world that is not in "disaster mode" and our own issues. We could have done with less, but luckily we have that abundance in the tanks and had a bunch of rain to top them off. Thank goodness we still have electricity and God's timing of rain!
Now it's Friday, and we have some of the day to day worked out, but it's still hit and miss. Because we still have to go to work, deal with children, animals breaking out of fencing, and all the other life issues; it doesn't let us focus on really buckling down as much as I'd like. The wife and I discussed that we definitely need to set up times to do "grid down" exercises, and I really, really suggest it to all your readers. It surprised me how a simple thing like cleanliness can trip you up so much.
When my wife and I sat down to talk, we found the lesson is this:
If your house isn't clean and ready for a disaster right now, you're already three steps behind when you need to be two steps ahead.
In a second e-mail, he added:
Oh, I forgot to mention in the first email that, in order to keep the house running, on her way back home from a Dr appointment the morning that they shut off the water, my wife had to stop at the store for paper plates, bottled water, plastic utensils, and sandwich stuff so that the family could keep going without skipping a beat - and that we've had to keep using that stuff to keep pace with modern society. If not for the store, we wouldn't be able to function right now. Basically, all our prepping, and all we've been able to do is wash dishes, flush toilets, and keep sanitation - no ability to cook, and maintain regular house functions.
NO GOOD!
Sadly, he and his family learned their lesson the hard way; but we all have to keep it in mind. Disasters, or even the less troublesome difficulties in life, mostly don't bother to give us advance warning that they're about to arrive. One minute things are going smoothly, the next we hit a gigantic bump in the road. If we're ready for it, all well and good. If not . . . bad things can happen, and very quickly. Furthermore, one bad thing happening can cause a chain reaction of more bad things happening, to our extreme discomfort and annoyance.
A last thought. Arthur Sido notes:
Now we are actively dropping bombs in a sovereign nation that we are not at war with, hitting “proxies” for a different foreign nation. All of this in a country, Syria, with a large Russian military presence.
As I have stated repeatedly, I am not a military strategist, but it seems to me that if you keep dropping bombs near Russian soldiers, the odds of “accidentally” killing some goes way up and the more troops and assets you have in a region experiencing a hot war, the better the chances some of our troops will get killed.
. . .
It certainly seems like the pieces are in place ... to finally go after the neocon’s favorite wet dream of a war with Iran, perhaps Russia and China for the fun of it as well.
Things are pretty quiet right now on the homefront but if we get into a shooting war, as seems likely, watch for store shelves to empty out in a hurry. You should be sitting pretty already but if you aren’t, time is a wastin’ to get ready.
Again, more at the link.
The war in Israel has already drastically affected price and availability of ammunition in this country, as we noted recently. In its latest newsletter, SGAmmo observed:
We have seen surging demand over the past 19 days at levels not seen since the outbreak of Covid19 in March of 2020, and demand continues to remain elevated at extremely high levels even after over 2 full weeks have passed. Expect shipping delays in the 5 to 10 day range ... Fear driven stockpiling can be extremely intense causing ammo to sell in mass volumes, and can overwhelm the supply chain quickly and lead to shortages, spotty availability and higher prices. We have now recently seen a major shock affect the market with the horror of the Israel / Hamas war, and now a major mass shooting as an aftershock. These conditions back to back have driven demand to new levels, and will continue to pressure the supply chain, as the masses of customers all move to stock up on the same products at the same time. Should another shocking event happen, the market could spiral out of control similar to it did in 2020 and 2021. What you do is your business, but I could easily see additional price increases, and a simple lack of availability on popular calibers to come in the months ahead.
Take heed. You should already have most of what you need. Buy what you lack now, before the supply dries up, because if a war hits us, it's going to become literally impossible to buy any - all the ammo factories will be switched over to war production.
Furthermore, if a shooting war breaks out, expect oil supplies from the Middle East to be restricted almost at once; and don't forget that although we produce much of the oil we need, our allies who will be cut off from their normal suppliers will turn to us for help, reducing fuel available to the consumer market. If so, fuel will almost certainly be in short supply for an unknown period of time. If you run a generator, get more fuel for it; and if you operate a vehicle, I very strongly suggest storing enough fuel to fill its tank at least twice. If everything goes wrong and you have to leave for a safer place, use part of that fuel to fill your vehicle and take the rest with you, because if everybody else is also traveling, you're unlikely to find more at gas stations along the road. Also, from now on, keep your vehicle's tank at least half-full on a permanent basis. Some suggest two-thirds to three-quarters full. That may not be practical, but it's something I'll try to achieve whenever possible.
A final thought. We're never going to have everything right, and be prepared for every possible eventuality. We may think we've covered all the bases, but when things go pear-shaped, we'll almost certainly find holes in our plans and preparations. That's OK. It's inevitable. If we try to cover as much of the essential elements as we can, that will get us through the worst; and when we find gaps and shortages, we'll cover them as best we can (including by trading preps of which we have a lot with those who need them, and have what we need). Flexibility and versatility are good things in an emergency. Never despair - just shrug your shoulders, resolve to do better next time, and get on with it. As the late President Theodore Roosevelt used to say, "Do what you can, with what you have, where you are". If you can't do it, or don't have it, or it isn't practicable where you are, don't sit there and fret over it. Do something else!
Peter
22 comments:
Your last paragraph is absolutely right. In the last few years i have had several mini-disasters and every time I learned about another hole in my preparations. Each time when the event had passed I figured out some way of at least partially mitigating each hole, but I am sure that are others I have no idea about.
Therefore, I believe that wherever possible I should have extras of the things I know about and barter items in case the disasters are bigger and I have an undiscovered and absolute need.
it has grown late for this advice to be useful, but it is better to acquire smaller amount of various thing rather than larger amounts of fewer. It is better to buy one to two hundred rounds of assorted calibers and not try to save up to but a thousand of one. It is better to make regular small purchases of metals when you can than to hope the price doesn't take off while saving for a big purchase.
Most other preps can be looked at in the same way.
I say until things go very wrong one still has time to prep,so......,get at it latecomers,you can do this!
Best of luck to all of us in the future and......,see you all on the other side!
I _just_ bought a 12kW dual-fuel generator for $1k.
Runs on gas or propane. 500 gal propane tank on the property for the water heater and cook-top.
Sitting on 3000 gallons of water, these folks were set up better than most! All I can say is that I hope the 588,600 gallon leak was on the water company's side of the meter!!! My advice; keep DRINKING WATER segregated from the rest. A hundred gallons of drinking water will go a LONG WAY, if you have other water to handle the toilet flushing, floor mopping, and hygiene. Your body won't care if you bathe in rain water. Your gut may very well care if you DRINK rain water!
...Homesteading, even of the urban or suburban variety, is VERY time consuming! Know that going in, practice it daily, looking for ANY ways to save time and labor!
Indeed, I can't count the number of times my preps have come in handy to handle minor "disasters!" A busted pipe, a missing ingredient for dinner, a leak in the roof, a lost filling... They're all emergencies that were mitigated quickly because I had what was needed to correct the problems. I'm a retired Coast Guardsman. The Coast Guard motto is "Semper Paratus. "Always Ready." I took that to heart a long time ago, and have never let go of it.
Concerning your vehicles; keep extra fluids on hand, as any petroleum shortage is going to affect availability... and cost... of things like motor oil, tranny fluid, and such.
Amen!
I went to make some rolls today. I'd told my husband that I needed yeast. He insisted that we had it.
I made the rolls - still waiting for the first rising to be complete - almost 4 hours after I started! Of course, the yeast is older and probably wasn't optimally stored (we recently moved cross country). It will likely be good enough for this batch, but I will need to replace it. Soon.
It will be mean an argument that it SHOULDN'T be expired, therefore it is good. OK, honey. Never mind that the bread won't rise. The yeast is good.
Gotcha.
Same with a lot of things in the freezer. He puts things in according to HIS reach (it's a chest freezer). I cannot reach the things I need. Most of what I want is buried under heavy items. I tried to persuade him that we needed an upright freezer, which is both easier to organize, and easier to get things out of.
Nope. He insists that the chest freezer is 'better' and 'cheaper'. Never mind the things that get freezer burn because they've been in there too long. Or that when he is out of town, I can't access most of the stuff.
Peter, thank you for passing on that communique from SGA in a timely fashion. You saved me $379.45 on the order I placed that day versus what I would pay for the same order today.
Linda, I've found that sorting my freezer stuff into reusable shopping bags, by the month we bought them, helps a LOT. The quantities are such that I can lift each bag myself if my husband isn't there to help, and I can make sure that the bags with the newest goods (after letting them freeze solid) can be moved to the bottom. There's still some lifting, but at least we know what should be used first.
And we always mark each package with the month and year, to avoid confusion. I hope this helps.
I lived in Florida for a few years, and hurricane season taught me a lot. Lesson One: When your landlady tells you that hurricane season is one month away, your first question is, "What should I stock up on?" Being a Florida native, she'll tell you. Add a few things of your own.
Lesson Two: When your landlady objects to guns in the house, ignore her. Hide them and keep quiet, because later on when the hurricane has passed and strangers come snooping around, she'll be pleasantly surprised to see you sitting on the front porch with a shotgun.
Lesson Three: Buy extra medication, including an antibiotic or two.
There's more, but if you want to learn to survive, live through a hurricane or two. Go camping, primitive style.
Sigh, a hard lesson learned, but at least he has water... That would hurt me, since all I have is bottled water and only a couple of cases of that.
Pete,
Sadly, the pipe was on my side of the meter. So I'll have to deal with it. I already have the plans in place - the water company came out and helped me trace out where the line was buried. I have one suspect spot, after that it's on to simply replacing the whole run. It's a long run, and more economic to replace it than play guessing games on where the break is.
I grew up in Colorado, and am used to power outages which would also turn off a well, but usually came with snow that could be melted on the wood stove. I'm used to electrical outages. Water outage, with little ones, was a whole new ball game and a big eye opener on what kind of world it is. Also, how suddenly it can happen and without warning.
Having read many of the EMP books, it was odd to see the same kind of concept apply to water. And I would say that more people are in worse situations if nefarious actors destroyed water infrastructure than electric, because electric goes out occasionally. How often does the average person have their water randomly turn off for days with no warning?
@Chad: Any indication what half-a-million-plus gallons of water leak will cost you? I'm mentally wincing at the thought, but it would be interesting to know.
@ Peter
8K is what the utilities told me. We'll see if they work out a deal with me. I can't imagine that they won't, but we'll see. I'm in an extremely rural location; the manager himself came out to walk the property and help me troubleshoot, mark the line, and offer advice.
So we'll see. I rent, but am working out a lease to own where I'm liable up to the insurance deductible. I thought that was 1k, but yesterday the owner mentioned something about 5k. If that's the case, or if he changed the deductible, we might have to have words...
I don’t have a town water supply, so I don’t know much about them. But since the water supply is metered, wouldn’t a sudden increase in usage show up sooner than ‘massive leak over the last 30 days’? It seems whatever monitor they do would show a spike in a week or so. This just seems odd to me.
Also if you are renting or leasing the property, wouldn’t the owner shoulder some of the repair cost?
Southern NH
We faced a variant of this when our water heater died at 1 am. Since it was in the attic, as is the custom in most suburban Texas homes, the leaking water ended up collapsing the upstairs hallway ceiling onto the stairs. The shutoff valve would not work so my husband had to look online how to shut off water to the house and go out to the street to do so at 2 am. We had to pull our for-sale home from the market.
The plumber couldn't come for two days. We arranged showers elsewhere, but I had a good supply of bottled water on hand for drinking, as well as paper plates, napkins, plastic utensils, etc. I had also filled and stored about half a dozen 5 gallon water containers in our under-the-stairs closet, and this sufficed for washing hands and flushing toilets.
We replaced the water heater, but otherwise insurance was not much help (read the fine print on your home owner's policy for what is apparently standard language strictly limiting damages from such an occurrence). With God's help we managed to sell our house 'as is' and move to the rural property we had purchased.
This event was not without a silver lining. It made my husband greatly appreciate my preparations, just as the earlier Texas freeze had made him realize how dependent we were on functioning public utilities. We now live in a tiny house (on lots of land) with a well and a whole-house generator and a very-large owned propane tank. When finances allow, we plan to install an underground holding tank for water and set up some rain catchment as well (the well is far too deep for a hand pump and the heavily-wooded property precludes a solar pump). The size of the house precludes storing my five gallon water containers inside, and they are empty in the non-climate controlled garage for now (I don't want them freezing/bursting when overnight temps drop to the 20s in a few days). I still have bottled drinking water and paper plates . . . and the first thing we did in our new-to-us cabin was replace the 23 year old water heater.
There is a creek at the far, down-hill end of our property and we do have buckets and a side-by-side to transport them in a dire emergency. Water truly is as important as all the 'preparedness' sites say it is, and it is difficult to store in quantity. You use far more than you ever realize. Preparedness - even in suburbia - really does mitigate disasters, major and minor.
The SG Ammo suggestion was a good one for me, I managed to add a bit to my ammo supply at very reasonable prices compared to local places.
Wish I'd done it a couple months ago and gotten a lot more for my money but happy to not be doing it next month!
Check the use of a water ram to push your creek water uphill.
For those who are on city water, do you know how/where to turn your water off in an emergency?? I ended up buying a 4’ meter wrench and keep near the front door so can use anytime needed.
Anonymous, if you do not have a signed Rent to Own lease with stated terms you are not responsible for the pipe break or water cost. It's his problem, it's his house he making money on and if he balks find a lawyer immediately. Don't ever, ever sign a lease to own contract without running it through a real estate lawyer. I'm a former landlord of many years who just sold my last home this past month. For the first time since I was 18 I am divested of all real estate.
In my experience, losing water pressure can be tough now matter how much you have stored. I think a large part of this is that our houses and our habits are designed for running water. Want to wash your hands? Turn on the water, wash and rinse in the flowing water, then turn it off. With no running water? Pour water into the sink (hope your sink's drain is tight -- mine wasn't.) Wash with soap. Rinse? Hmm... Back in the day this was done with a basin and a pitcher. And a minimum of water consumption. After my last outage, there several of each in the closet standing by. Still trying to solve the whole bath thing.
I completely endorse the concept of planned mini-emergencies to test things out!
Arab Oil Embargo 2.0 is coming. Arab Oil Embargo 1.0 was pretty bad in England as the Coal Miners were striking then also. Mom learned to cook supper early as they killed our power usually at 5 pm every day for an hour or two.
I've read a lot of (seemingly) good content on prepping here. Thanks.
The two posts below have a somewhat different take on the subject of prepping.
https://www.anarchonomicon.com/p/the-problem-with-prepping
https://www.anarchonomicon.com/p/realistic-prepper-advice
Not necessarily inconsistent with the material on this blog but maybe a little simpler. Something to consider.
Water rates can vary so much from jurisdiction to jurisdiction, so I do hope that the water company and insurance company cooperate with him. There's also a matter of seeing if there can be a break on the amount of utility taxes on the lost water.
Most of the water companies charge by the 1000s of gallons, rounded, after the base rates for the service itself (and before taxes are applied). Around here, the small-to-midsize towns charge somewhere around $5-10 per 1000 gallons, with some having discounts for bulk use. It's higher for areas where there's a larger rural area to provide for (my county is somewhat in the middle, as it has the the county seat's water, that provides for half the county, and at least 1 other provider - and half the reviews/complaints online are idiots 1-starring the water company that ISN'T the one they are complaining about). My old hometown 20 years ago was at about $2/1000 then, about $6.64/1000 now - but has had to expand into surrounding areas, hook up 2 new schools, and more, while also losing some of their industrial users.
Other companies have significantly higher rates, especially ones where the previous leadership allowed the systems to fall into disrepair before a failure that forced intervention from outside. I can only imagine the rates that were being suggested in a county east of here where the neglect in previous decades has led to it likely needing the infrastructure rebuilt from ground up.
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