Things are getting very dangerous in the Middle East

 

Over the past couple of days:

• An Iranian-made missile, launched from Iraq (probably by an Iranian surrogate terrorist group), struck an Israeli naval base at the port of Eilat on Monday, narrowly missing one of the Israeli Navy's newest and most modern warships.  This comes two years after Iranian TV showed its forces practicing to attack a mock-up of the same port, showing exactly the position struck by their missile this week, with a similar warship in the same location.
• On the same day, Israel bombed an Iranian consulate in Damascus, Syria, striking with such precision that the building was destroyed, but two other buildings on either side of it were left with minimal damage.  Three Iranian Revolutionary Guard generals were killed in the strike, along with several other senior advisers.  The attack was presumably a rapid and pointed response to the missile strike on Eilat.
• Iran has been supplying almost all the missiles that Houthi insurgents are firing at Western vessels around the entrance to the Red Sea.  Those attacks show no sign of diminishing.  Sooner or later, the supply will have to be interrupted at its source.
• The USA has been supplying Israel with the aircraft bombs and guidance kits it needs to continue its campaign in Gaza and elsewhere.  Recently the Biden administration has appeared to be slow-walking further deliveries of munitions, in order to apply pressure to Israel:  but it's also just announced the proposed sale of up to 50 of the latest-model F-15EX strike aircraft to that country.  That's a very mixed signal, to say the least.

I get the impression that the Biden administration has been not-so-gently informed by Israel that, if that country's military operations against Hamas, Hezbollah and other Iranian-sponsored terrorist groups are hampered by deliberately slowed weapons deliveries, then Israel will take up the option of stopping Iran's sponsorship of terrorism at the source by converting it into a radioactive glass-topped parking lot.  Whilst many Israelis might not want to do that, I think the Netanyahu administration is more than sufficiently determined to do whatever it takes to ensure Israel's security;  and I don't see the Israeli military arguing against that option.  Iran, and terrorists sponsored by Iran, are costing them too many lives.

Recent developments do nothing to make me feel more optimistic about the prospects for peace in the Middle East.  On the contrary, I think that region is closer to an all-out, devil-take-the-hindmost war than it has been for a very long time - and almost all parties to the dispute are absolutely adamant that they will not back down.  It's irresistible force versus immovable object.  Given the other geopolitical stresses on all the major powers right now . . . who knows where that could end?

Finally, remember that the religious fanatics running Iran see it as eminently desirable to bring about their version of the apocalypse, in order to expedite the return of the Twelfth Imam.  As far as they're concerned, a nuclear exchange between Iran and Israel would be almost guaranteed to accomplish that - so they have nothing to lose.

Don't expect rationality, logic or statesmanship from Iran.  They no longer exist among that country's leaders . . . and that's a deadly dangerous reality.

Peter