Thursday, June 6, 2024

Like politics, emergency preparedness is "The art of the possible"

 

Otto von Bismarck, the first Chancellor of the German Empire during the nineteenth century, said many things that have become quotations.  Two of them are:

Politics is the art of the possible

Politics is the art of the next best

The Socratic Method says of the first quotation:  "By recognizing that politics is fundamentally the art of compromise, Bismarck encourages leaders to chart a course that maximizes the achievable progress rather than becoming entangled in unattainable dreams."  That applies to the second quotation as well, of course:  if one can't get the best possible result, try for the next best.  (A modern version might read, "Aim for the stars.  Even if you miss, you might reach the moon on your way up.")

In terms of preparing for emergencies and hard times, I've been getting more and more disturbed by the amount of time and energy some people are spending arguing with each other, denouncing each other's points of view, calling each other names and disputing future forecasts, rather than focusing on what we can actually do, today and every other day, to achieve practical, possible, feasible results.  The latter is essential.  The former is a waste of . . . well, everything, really.  It produces nothing except hard feelings and bad language.

There seems (to me) to be little point in arguing whether we should be joining militias, or stocking up on arms and ammunition, or preparing lists of people who need to be targeted when things go to hell in a hand-basket.  Preparedness means, first and foremost, readiness to deal with the most likely emergencies that may confront us.  That could mean a power outage, a broken water system, an epidemic, severe weather conditions, or any combination of those factors.  We should make sure we're as ready as we can be to ride out those emergencies, along with our families and loved ones.  Only after we've got those preparations in place should we worry about more extended emergencies;  a breakdown in the rule of law, escalating crime, political turmoil leading to national chaos, and so on.  As individuals and families, we can do little if anything to affect those crises.  They're too big for us.  On the other hand, if we all take care of the "little things" - the smaller, local crises mentioned above, that we are in a position to deal with - then we'll be better able, as individuals and as communities, to respond to larger challenges as and when they arise.

I'll give you an example from my own family.  We have certain health issues that would make it very difficult if we were to lose power for an extended period.  We need to be able to filter allergens out of our household air, and keep the temperature at a bearable level.  If we can't, there may be serious consequences.  To help deal with that, we've spent money on sources of backup electrical power, so that even if we have to do without utility electricity for a month or more, we can nevertheless ensure that at least part of our home will be in a livable condition for us.

We're slowly but steadily, as we can afford it, continuing to extend the period that we could live without the electrical grid.  We're never going to be completely independent of it, but we're trying to ensure that if an emergency arises and we lose power, we can deal with it in the short to medium term.  That's possible.  That's practical.  Living completely off the grid is simply not possible for us, so we don't lose sleep worrying about it.  Equally, threats to the national grid - transformers wearing out, terror attacks, whatever - are something we can do absolutely nothing about;  so we don't waste time getting scared by them.  Why be afraid of what you can't control?  Rather concentrate on what you can control.

As the late President Theodore Roosevelt advised us:

Do what you can, with what you have, where you are

I think that dovetails very neatly with Otto von Bismarck's advice.  I think it also puts into perspective the shouting and tumult we sometimes find when individuals or groups attack each other's views and proposals.  Let's not waste time on that.  Let's spend our time on things that will build each other up, rather than break each other down.  There are more than enough people out there ready, willing and able to do the latter.  Why make their job easier?  Why do it for them?

Peter


7 comments:

Anonymous said...

100% agreement. It makes no sense debating which is the 'perfect BOG' if there is no way the person or family can afford it. What was called the '80% Gun' (the firearm that could handle 80% of the possibilities) would have to do and on to the next priority. Food and water are more important than the perfect assault rifle or handgun to rid yourself of enemies.

SiGraybeard said...

Back when I was first getting acquainted with this world, I read Rawles' first book and came to a point where I said, "if that's what it takes to survive, we're dead meat." If our city gets invaded by groups like the South American crime gangs with their Toyota-mounted automatic weapons we're dead and they get our survival stash. To instead of "to the victor go the spoils" it's "to the most brutal."

The bitter reality is that in the long term, the death rate is 100%. I don't want to live as long as possible, I want to live a good, relatively pain-free and healthy life as long as possible. There are scenarios of collapse in which our state becomes a horrible place to try to survive. No electricity for fans, the air black with mosquitoes, a 24 hour day of fighting bugs off anything you can grow that they also can eat? For what?

Anonymous said...

My thoughts have been, 1. can my family handle three days without power (food, backup batteries for any necessary electronics/medical devices)? 2. Can my family handle a week with intermittent power? 3. Can we go 24 hours without running water on no notice? (Bit trickier, especially in summer, but doable without warning, much more doable with a little warning). 4. Do we have the protective gear and tools to help others if we are physically able to do so? (Tornado aftermath is the biggest concern.)

TXRed

Anonymous said...

What affordable ways did you find on the allergens? I recently found mold in at least the trim boards, and possibly the drywall, of several rooms, but can't afford the remodel right now.

ErisGuy said...

Then there’s the Von Braun version. Aim for the Moon, you might London on the way down.

Anonymous said...

(Re: SiGraybeard said) In that situation, simply start eating liberals. Reduce their vote count enough and the remaining conservatives can turn the lights back on.

No electricity for fans, the air black with mosquitoes, a 24 hour day of fighting bugs off anything you can grow that they also can eat?

No enforcers, no snitches, no junior G men to stop you from moving into a 100K ft^2 office building and scavenging solar panels and fuel to power it. People are carefully led to forget that centralized, tax-funded force can only force the oppression of 5% of population or so. Beyond that percentage people have to already want to get on the boxcars.

Anonymous said...

For many people these days, the most likely "emergency" will be the loss of a job, the devaluation/market crash/seizure (a la 2012 'haircut' in Cyprus) of assets, hyperinflation, being blackballed by SJWs, or other economic tribulations.

IMHO then, the top priorities become (in no particular order):

- Short term supplies (as for natural disasters) to get you over the hump
- Financial reserves. Can you pay your mortgage next month if you loose your job?
- Get out of debt
- Economic independence (diversified income streams, self employment, etc.)
- A victory garden
- Make friends with neighbors, fellow worshipers, suppliers, customers - everyone you can. Much is said about how in SHTF, survival isn't really a solo gig. That means you should make as many connections as you can right now, to anyone who isn't dangerous to associate with.

Note that last item - networking - is a huge boost in the case of economic difficulties. Outside of school-leavers, people get most of their jobs through people they know. That goes double for the self employed, where referrals are the best way to cultivate clients.

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Much discussion focuses on 'gunning up'. OK to a point - a pistol for EDC, maybe a long gun or shotgun for home defense - but any further focus on defense is misplaced until you have economic freedom.

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So in keeping with Peter's original blog post about the art of the possible - don't sit around dreaming of an off-grid homestead/fortress stocked with 20 tons of MREs and more ammo than a Hornady factory. Establish whatever self sufficiency you can right now. Especially economic self sufficiency.