Keep your guard up - because if you let it drop, you may not have time to get it back

 

Remaining alert and prepared for danger, whatever it may be, is the hallmark of successful individuals, groups, tribes and nations.  Those who don't . . . well, most of them aren't around any longer, or if they are, their lack of preparedness has cost them dearly before they could ensure their survival.  That's not just in military terms, either (although the example of Formerly Great Britain in 1914 and 1939 should convey its own message);  it applies to being prepared for emergencies of any kind, at any time.

I was reminded of that by a citation over at Larry Lambert's place, where he referred to this article.

Two underlying assumptions guided Israel’s security establishment for the past generation. The first asserted that with the end of the Cold War, the era of conventional wars had ended. In the present age, brains, rather than brawn, would rule the roost ... A generation of IDF Chiefs of General Staff organized around the vision of a “small, technological and lethal army.”

. . .

Brick’s warnings fell on deaf ears until the “small, smart army” fallacy was obliterated by Hamas invaders on Oct. 7. Israel’s multi-billion shekel “smart fence” was felled by bulldozers. Its automatic response system was obliterated by RPGs. Hundreds of soldiers manning these worthless technological wonders were slaughtered or kidnapped. Everything failed.

This brings us to the second underlying assumption that guided Israel’s security establishment for the past generation. This assumption, also championed by Barak, asserted that Israel’s most important strategic asset was the United States ... Under the spell of Barak’s U.S. dependence doctrine, Israel gutted its domestic military production capabilities. Nearly everything that it had produced domestically—from uniforms to rifles to bullets, to artillery and tank shells—was shut down. Thousands of military industry workers lost their jobs. Knowledge was lost. The contracts moved to the United States. Even projects developed jointly by Israeli engineers financed by America were transferred to the United States for production. So it happened that Israel’s Iron Dome missiles are solely produced in the United States.

Along with Barak, the dependence doctrine’s biggest champions were the air force generals. Under their leadership, Israel’s air force effectively became a U.S. asset. The air force cannot operate without U.S. platforms, spare parts and bombs. All air force ordnance is made in America.

. . .

It will take years to correct the damage the generals wrought by reducing the size of the IDF and inducing its total dependence on the United States ... the Defense Ministry is launching a crash program with Israel’s military industries and major industrialists to make Israel independent in everything related to ordnance. In the initial phase, Israel will begin producing bombs for its aircraft. Jerusalem also intends to expand its production of tank and artillery shells, as well as assault rifles and bullets. Separately, there is increased discussion regarding the establishment of a missile force as an independent arm of the IDF. The force would reduce reliance on the air force and develop more versatile, more easily defended missile launch platforms and massively expand Israel’s missile and drone arsenals.

. . .

Brick and others argue that had Hezbollah joined Hamas in invading and bombing Israel on Oct. 7, Israel may well have been destroyed that day. A combination of Hezbollah’s 10,000-man Radwan Brigades perched at the border and capable of invading the Galilee, and a barrage of up to 4,000 missiles with various payloads targeting Israel’s air bases, and other strategic sites and civilian population centers every day for weeks, would have caused irreparable damage equal in force to a nuclear bomb.

There's more at the link.  The whole article is well worth reading in full.

The article drives home, yet again, for the umpteenth time in history, the truth of Vegetius' adapted and oft-repeated statement:

Si vis pacem, para bellum.

If you want peace, prepare for war.

Nobody ever won a war by preparing for peace.

Nobody ever became more prepared for an emergency by ignoring emergency preparations.

Nobody ever prospered by ignoring the dangers that imperil prosperity.

We can put it any way we like, in any context of human endeavor that we wish, but the truth remains inescapable.  If we close our eyes to reality, and relax, and forget about the innumerable lessons embodied in human history, we're going to get clobbered when it comes around again.  For a very sobering example of that, see this post from Karl Denninger, where he describes how a well-prepared friend was undone by the little things that had been forgotten or ignored - but came back to bite him when his emergency preparations were really needed.

How many people in the Caribbean, and the Yucatan Peninsula, and the southern Gulf Coast of Texas, did nothing to prepare for a hurricane - despite living in one of the most hurricane-prone regions of the world?  Hurricane Beryl is currently reminding them to be more prepared and proactive in future.

How many of us are watching the present political instability in the United States' government and not preparing for major upheavals?  We have a President who's manifestly incapable of managing his own affairs, let alone the nation's.  Can we trust his finger on the nuclear button in emergency?  I don't.  I don't think anyone with any sense does . . . yet he's still in office, and the powers that be are desperate to persuade us that everything's fine, and there's no danger.  One rogue state taking matters into its own hands, and that can change in literally seconds.  Do you feel safe?

Our economy is a mess.  Warning signs are flashing all over (I'll be writing more about that later today or tomorrow.)  Do we feel prosperous?  Do we feel economically secure?  Then we aren't prepared for what's likely to happen Real Soon Now.

BE PREPARED.  IF YOU'RE NOT YET PREPARED, GET PREPARED AS BEST YOU CAN . . . or else.

Peter