I'm getting very tired of all the hot air from those who blindly support Ukraine in its war with Russia. Yes, Russia was the aggressor. Yes, Ukraine is entitled to defend itself, and fight to reinstate its territorial integrity. However, in what imaginary universe do you see Ukraine actually being able to accomplish that? Show me a practical means for them to succeed, and I'll support it - but for the life of me, I can't see one.
It's no good telling me that "Putin is a liar and a murderer. It is impossible to accommodate him." You're absolutely right. He's all that and more. However, what are you going to do to stop him that doesn't involve - at the very least - a wider European war, and might even deteriorate into a nuclear exchange? What practical, realistic ways are there to do anything but accommodate at least some of what Putin wants? Show me!
Stand on principle, you say? Slava Ukraini! Be brave like Ukraine! - but who, precisely, is to be brave, and for what reason? Ukrainians are, indeed, courageous in their resistance. They've also lost almost an entire generation of their younger people, enough to cripple their nation demographically for the next couple of decades at least, if not longer. Who else are you telling to be brave? Our own young people?
I asked at the beginning of the Russia-Ukraine war: "Someone please tell me: what compelling national security interest does the USA have in Ukraine???" I said in that article:
There is no, repeat, NO reason for Americans to lose their lives to defend a corrupt, incompetent regime in Ukraine. We have no compelling or vital national security interest to defend there.
. . .
Afghanistan wasn't worth the thousands of American lives it cost to conquer and occupy it. Ukraine isn't worth even one American life, because there's nothing there that we need or want, and nothing that's of direct and immediate importance to us. Let the Ukrainians and the Russians sort it out. It's their business. If Europe wants to get involved, let them. They're near enough to the problem for it to be their business. We aren't.
The only way to obtain a peaceful resolution of the war in Ukraine is to make it so costly for either or both parties to continue that they both realize they can't win in the long run: that it's better to cut their losses and make peace now, on the best terms they can get. Judging from the conduct and pronouncements of both sides, they aren't there yet, and are unlikely to get there unless something unforeseen happens.
That being the case, why the pressure to continue and even increase US involvement in that conflict? Such involvement cannot and will not resolve the crisis unless and until both sides are willing to reach a settlement. Putin can't, because he thinks (possibly correctly) that his own people would remove him from power if he spent so many Russian lives, and destroyed so much of Russia's economy and armed forces, for no worthwhile result. Zelensky can't, because he's wiped out a generation of his own people (to the extent of having his bully boys kidnap anyone off the street who looks able to fight, and sending him off to the front lines with minimal training and little hope of survival). Many of his own people hate and resent him, and would like nothing better than to replace him. Both leaders are more focused on their own survival (and, of course, their own corrupt enrichment) than on the needs of their people and their nation.
So, if you're one of those demanding that we get more involved, and force a solution upon the combatants . . . how? Tell me how. Show me that your solution is practical, feasible, and will work, and will not cost American lives to put it in place. If the latter is impossible, convince American families that it'll be worth their while to bury their sons and daughters for a war in which our nation has no compelling national security interest of our own.
If you can't do both of those things, kindly shut up and let the adults work undisturbed. Cloud cuckoo land is thataway. What we need right now is realpolitik - and it's not to be found there.
Peter
31 comments:
The only way I see to end the fighting short of a clear military victory is to offer Russia a way to save face (they are very Asian that way).
The only reasonable options I see for this are either territorial concessions or economic ones (unreasonable options include Ukrainian demilitarization or regime change).
I think the best of a bunch of bad options would be to bring Russian investment and maybe control of some major factories and mines on favorable terms, likely combined with symbolic political changes involving a couple of unsavory politicians leaving office or similar.
I'd prefer to see Russia stopped cold here so they don't create problems elsewhere but I see that as very unlikely.
Jonathan
Bravo. Europe can't or won't fight, and we shouldn't be involved in any way. Ukraine made a classic mistake - they trusted Democrats. You would think after Crimea-they would have learned something. Of course, billions of dollars buys a lot of amnesia. No matter how bad Putin is, the Petain-like slaughter of Ukraine 's future is an albatross that Zelensky will always wear.
Much as it galls me, I think the endgame for this is that everyone will officially recognize Donetsk, Luhansk, and Crimea as no longer being part of Ukraine, and possibly a strip of land to connect those areas.
I don't think that there's any other option that both sides will find acceptable.
(I will point out here that people tend to be very forgiving towaeds political leaders about high casualties taken in wars of national defense.)
This is the "forever war". It's not meant to be won or lost. It's meant to go on forever. We need a boogeyman to enrich the MIC and slaughter our young men, while distracting the citizens from the raping and pillaging our own politicians are doing to us.
I have to say that the main reason for Russia invading Ukraine is due to NATO's expansion where it was not supposed to to.
The rare earths agreement has no provision for repayment of past US aid with trade goods. Prudent, they're broke and we want rare earths and don't mind paying for them. That's all we should be doing in the area, nobody ever pays the United States of America back and the Ukrainians won't either. time for Trump to step back from the fray and allow zhelensky to recalculate his life expectancy without our help. Ukraine"s sovereignty is not yet in question but they are going to be smaller soon whether they like it or not. Time to shut up and make more trade deals, get some money rolling in and hope Vlad is satisfied with what he takes. And get rid of zhelensky, he symbolizes the corrupt kiev regime. These people used to have nukes and fortuitously surrendered them for political advantage and empty promises. Imagine how this situation might have developed if they still had their nukes. Like Pakistan does.
Rick m
One reason I marveled at the stupidity of the initial reaction, it took it from Russians believing it was a serious threat to their borders, to making it an existential threat to Russia.
If anyone had said anything different to the dominant line of Russia should be destroyed, broken up, taken back to the 90's economically, they were shouted down. But Russians remember just how bad the 90's were, they're proud of their country, and took it as meaning it was far more serious than a border dispute. It became an existential threat.
And now there's not really an off ramp. There's no statesmen in the west who would take it anyway. So I reckon we'll see it grind on until Ukraine is effectively dust, and Russia will take what they want. Although I don't think that'll be quite as much as many expect.
It will not end until 'somebody' goes nuclear... sigh
"Yes, Russia was the aggressor. Yes, Ukraine is entitled to defend itself, and fight to reinstate its territorial integrity"
But WAS Russia the aggressor? Yes, they started the fight. But Ukraine was supposed to be neutral, not try to be a part of NATO....
Look back on the history, you will find that Ukraine has been aggressive towards Russia several times, and chose to be confrontational more than once.
Are they getting what they deserve? Possibly.
Having said that, there is nothing in Ukraine worth any of the BILLIONS of dollars we have given them. (Much of it cash that is unaccountable) nor is anything there worth ONE SINGLE AMERICAN LIFE.
Let Europe find out the hard way that they got fat and lazy hiding behind the NATO (that was really the US Military). It's their neighborhood, let them police it.
Let’s not forget Ukraine was (and still is in hobbled form) an utterly corrupt international clearinghouse for money laundering, drug trafficking, flesh peddling, and the worst sorts of pornography. The US Department of State and many high level politicians liked it that way and were balls deep in it.
There probably is no good solution. The war should have been prevented by firm opposition to Russia but Obama and Biden were incompetent. Now we are left with bad options. Putin can't give up. It would cost him his position of power. Ukraine's only hope was to bleed Russia till they gave up...not a great strategy. If Putin is allowed to win Russia WILL ever target other countries...probably Latvia and the like. Putin wants to reconstitute the USSR. And if unopposed he will.
The only way to get peace long term is for Russia to collapse into Muscovy and no longer have any capability to threaten its Western neighbors or dominate and extract tribute from Siberia etc. I see no sign that Muscovite culture can be reformed to be anything other than parasitical short of this and parasitical Moscow has kept the rest of Russia grindingly poor
There are problems with this - it will almost certainly mean that the Chicoms get control of Asiatic Russia for example - but it will end Russia's two or three centuries of pushing to grab more and more Eastern Europe etc. Of course this end state won't come about without a considerable amount of conflict within what is currently Russia but if they are fighting in Russia they aren't also fighting their neighbors so that's a win
"But Ukraine was supposed to be neutral, not try to be a part of NATO...."
Russia was supposed to withdraw from all of the former SSRs, and did not.
I don't necessarily support Russia but I do not support Ukraine ... or the benefactors, including the Democrat laundromat for (at least) Biden, Pelosi, Kerry, and Romney. Or the US biolabs and all the other grief (Zelensky) that NATO/US put upon that country. I believe Russia is the hockey player that responds - the responder gets the blame.
That's making the big assumption any of us know anything about what's really happening - I have the failing of getting my information from reading the "news".
"Someone please tell me: what compelling national security interest does the USA have in Ukraine???"
Making sure the Russian military is too weak to start WWIII with NATO.
Finland, the Baltic States, and the entirety of the former Warsaw Pact are all NATO members. Russian senior ministers have already stated they want the Baltic States back. One toe towards NATO, and it's DEFCON 1.
That's why we supply Ukraine with anything we can to keep chopping Putin's hordes down at the knees.
Your ball.
One of the stupider reasons I've heard not to support Ukraine is that they're corrupt. No foolin'? Show me a country that isn't corrupt!
And after this, I don't think any country that has nuclear capability will ever give it up. When the USSR collapsed, there were a lot of nukes in Ukraine. They gave them up on a guarantee of their territorial integrity. Now that that's been shown to be a tissue of lies, nobody else ever will.
Nukes they could not use. Controlled by Moscow.
People still believe Russia is the aggressor? After we engineered "regime change" in Ukraine, after Ukraine passed a law declaring ethnic genocide against Russians, after Ukraine spent years shelling Russian villages, after over 40,000 dead Russian civilians, after NATO advancing (despite promises otherwise) to Russia's doorstep, after multiple calls by NATO members for Russia to be conquered and dismantled, after NATO nations committing multiple acts of war against Russia...
These are the facts. There is no reason Russia should stop the war before they accomplish their goals - which they have stated openly, in plain language, since before the "special military action" began.
Russia may not be our ally, but they are fighting against Clown World, our existential enemy. If we want peace in Ukraine, we need to stop sending Zelensky money, material, and men.
In my estimation, a permanent peace is impossible so long as both sides are shooting at each other. Even a bad peace deal will stop the shooting and allow cooler heads to prevail on all sides.
Putin is an idiot. He should have called off the invasion within 2 weeks of its failure. Once the shooting stops, Russia will have to deal with Putin.
Zelensky is a corruptocrat. The Ukraine will have to deal with this clown.
Let's face facts. While NATO served a useful purpose against the Warsaw Pact, the Soviet Union & the Warsaw Pact are gone. We should have waited a couple years then closed down NATO, held a BBQ at NATO Headquarters and put up a For Sale sign. Something similar to NATO would be required in the future but it would break NATO's Russia fixation.
The actions of the European nations aka the "Mean Girls Clique" actions pretty much guaranteed the installation of Putin and the current mess.
Russia applied for NATO & EU membership and was turned away. The world would be a very different place had the EU accepted Russia and NATO admitted Russia. NATO would have known what Russia was doing and vice versa. On the minus side, this would have placed NATO on the border with mainland China.
Worse yet, the European nations kept provoking Russia by advancing NATO membership to the former Warsaw Pact nations. This is a mess that the Europeans created for themselves.
Presuming Trump can engineer any sort of peace deal, I feel a subsequent action would be for the U.S. to call for an end to NATO and to leave the organization.
They were Russia's nukes anyway - this isn't really that hard. If there was a reality in which US states could actually secede, do you think Nebraska gets to keep the nukes at Offitt AFB?
Yes, but you also have to include the politicians who are getting money back from the Ukraine. Ukraine was money laundry that allowed politicians to pocket money taken from the taxpayers which was sent to Ukraine "to support them against Russia." (10% for the big guy being one example) It's why the Uniparty was so upset when President Trump said he was stopping the money flow to the Ukraine as they saw their money spigot being turned off.
Well so far Aesop, the Russian's seem more capable that NATO and America combined.
You know XXX days since they LOST and all that? What's the count-up now. sir?
NATO and America's cupboard of missles seem pretty bare.
That AND China has cut us off from Rare Earths NEEDED to refill that cupboard.
OH YEAH, We HAVE them too... Just how many decades will it take before our mines and refineries are online for replacing China and Russia's rare Earths?
So, Mother Hubbard what other fine and intelligent ideas do you have for this situation?
Last I looked, every nation that had formerly enjoyed Moscow's tender embrace were the ones who "advanced" NATO. NATO held a gun to no one's head.
This has been Putin's own-goal since he took power. Ukraine is merely the latest to want to look westward instead of being Moscow's vassal state. Seizing Crimea, then the Donbas and Luhansk didn't endear anyone in Ukraine to Vlad either. This war has been going on since 2014. It's just that finally, faced with obliteration and assimilation, Kiev decided to fight back, and it turned out Russia's military might was vaporware.
FAFO.
Once Zelensky came to power there, he's the first Ukrainian leader since independence who's provably not Moscow's stooge.
And the U.S. leaving NATO would be
surrendering all of Europe to Russia. Period.
That's how Europe would see it, and that's how Russia would see it.
The quickest way to end a war is to surrender.
After ten or twenty good solid whacks, even Trump's finally beginning to get a cluebat upside the head that the entire problem here now, as always, is in Moscow. Blind hogs and acorns come to mind.
It may be nice to imagine the US could somehow go back to the 1925 isolationist status quo, but that ship sailed a century ago. If you're wishing, wish up gold at $20/oz and machineguns for sale to anyone by mail order.
What timeline are you typing from? I ask only because your description of what has transpired in Eastern Europe over the past few decades is so wildly at odds with how things went down in this reality that it has to be from an alternate dimension.
Dunno as I'd be so dismissive of Ukraine as a corrupt government. Sems to me the whole point of DOGE is that it is finding the US Govt is no less corrupt. for example... https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8uhiwIFUoKQ&ab_channel=FoxNews I just wish there were an equivalent operating in in AU...
Oh, and another thought... The corruption thing (which was the govt before Zelensky, who campaigned on an ""end corruption"" platform, and was resoundingly endorsed by Ukrainians sick of the corruption) has a deeply entrenched USA connection - pretty sure that Hunter Biden isn't a Ukrainian...
Last comment... I don't believe there is a constructive, effective solution. Not unless either or both parties are prepared to eat a king-size serving of humble pie. The Ukrainians ***Never*** want to be vassals of Russia again. In every century that has been bad for them. Especially the mid 20th century. ie, living memory.
On the other hand, anything short of total victory will make Putin feel like he looks weak. (a puissant little country humiliates the super-power Russia....)
Agree that the USA needs to step back. Also clear that the EU countries need to step up. It is no secret that Ukraine is NOT Russia's end game.
Question is, should NATO continue to exist? Or should the North American members withdraw, leaving the EU to its own devices, and sorting out its own regional issues... Given that Euro history is thousands of years of warfare, interrupted by short periods of peace, my Antipodean attitude is to leave them to sort it out themselves. And sanction the stuffing out of Russia. I *really* don't like bullies.
Russia is still flailing away after 1164 days of their "special military operation".
They're about as close to winning now as they were on Day 2.
And even Trump has figured out that the problem, as always, is Putin, not Ukraine.
The minute Russia figures out they can't win this war, and goes home, this war is over. Just as it didn't start until Russia invaded.
And as far as Ukraine is concerned, this war started in 2014, when Russia annexed the Crimea.
But hey, Russia's only wiped out a third to half its ground combat power, shown that its navy is impotent, it's air forces largely MIA, and pulled its own pants down in front of the entire planet.
Nobody's seen winning like this since Charlie Sheen "won" his entertainment career to an end.
I'm sure Russia will be victorious Any Day Now™.
Keep trying to kick that football, Charley Brown.
Larry Johnson at sonar21.com has a three part article on the background events that led to the SMO. You should read it because Russia is NOT the aggressor. The same people who have been the agressor in every other corner of the world for the last 50 years are the aggressor. And that's us!
Ps, just for fun, he has a analysis of terrorism statistics and Iran is not the big terrorist. USA and Israel are. Everything you have been told is a lie to serve the oligarchy. Get up to speed
This is a proxy war. The Russians can't run out of money, ammo or men because the Chinese are buying discounted Russian oil, selling old and Nork ammo to the Russians, selling fresh Chinese ammo to the Norks, sending excess meat to the meatgrinder, and bleeding all the west dry of guns and ammo.
When China decides to make its' move in the Pacific, we'll be out of ammo. The Chinese and Norks will be sitting on top of fat fresh magazines with a cadre of combat experienced officers and books full of learned lessons.
The Russians can't lose as long as the Chinese are backing their play. They can't win either though, the Chicoms are bleeding them too.
The Chicoms are playing the Game of Thrones.
Sorry,but Russia was definitely NOT the agressor in this fight.(see:Victoria Nuland et.al.)
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