"The Preppers Were Right All Along"

 

That's the opinion of Amanda Little, writing at Bloomberg.

Preppers, as the community of bunker builders and food hoarders is known, emerged during the Cold War as fears of nuclear holocaust drove some people to go to great lengths to prepare for survival in a burned-out world. But as the movement persisted over the decades, it has been mostly ignored by mainstream society, myself included, which came to view preppers mainly as paranoid radicals.

So it's more than a little uncomfortable to confront the reality that this fringe industry is increasingly mainstream. In fact, in an era of growing environmental volatility and geopolitical unrest, Augason and his competitors appear downright prescient, maybe even pragmatic.

Disaster after disaster has reminded us all of the disturbing premise underpinning prepper thinking: We’re increasingly at risk of being cut off from our normal food supply. One recent report predicts that the survival food industry, which now produces very roughly $500 million in annual sales (privately held manufacturers don't like to share their numbers), will grow by $2.8 billion by 2026.

The growth of this industry speaks volumes about the fear mindset that has crept into mainstream consumer behavior. You probably have at least one friend, colleague or neighbor who has been toying with the idea of becoming a “prepper.” Maybe not building a full-on bunker, but lining their pantries with long-storage food in the event that another major storm, blizzard, wildfire or another public health crisis hits.

There's more at the link.

I've never been a prepping extremist.  I simply grew up in Africa, where in most countries the supply of food is precarious at best, subject to interruptions of many kinds, from drought or other natural disaster through banditry to all-out civil war.  Anyone with any sense there stores at least a few weeks' worth of essential supplies, because one never knows when one might not be able to buy more of them.  After coming to the USA, experience with Hurricanes Katrina and Rita drove home the lessons I'd already learned in Africa, and reinforced them.

I began pounding the "prepping" drum in earnest after those hurricanes, because I could see how simple population growth was putting the world's supply of food at risk.  It's not that there isn't enough food in normal times;  there is - but it has to be moved from where it is to where it's needed, and that's a whole lot more difficult when shipping is tied up with moving consumer goods, and older ships are retired because it costs too much to keep them in service, and airlines can't carry bulk food because it's not cost-effective, and trains are short of the fuel needed to move from one country to another.  What our cities need in the way of food is available, but it's hundreds or thousands of miles from the shops and distribution facilities closest to those who need it, and we can no longer take it for granted that it'll be able to cover that distance.  The current diesel shortage is only one element of the problem.  There are many more.

For example, right now Canada is dealing with a near-record wheat harvest, but bad weather is hampering its delivery.

Thousands of tons of wheat and canola is stranded in Canada after rain has hampered deliveries at the country’s largest port during peak shipping season.

Grain terminals in Vancouver are having trouble loading and unloading grain amid heavy, persistent rain in British Columbia, creating a backlog of trains that are unable to deliver to the port, said David Przednowek, assistant vice president of grain for Canadian National Railway Co. At least 12 fully-loaded unit trains, carrying more than 100,000 tons, are parked on the Prairies waiting to deliver, he said.

“Nobody wants to see those trains idle,” Przednowek said Friday by phone. “Everybody wants to move it. We just can’t.”

Again, more at the link.

Those weather-induced delays in shipping Canadian wheat are adding to the stresses on the world wheat market, where already there's a multi-million-ton shortfall in supply and prices have skyrocketed ("The average of three important wheat prices increased by 165 per cent between May 2021 and May 2022").  There are countries whose populations are threatened with literal starvation because they can't get enough wheat, fast enough, to feed them.

I'm not going to go into all the details of our own agricultural situation, and inflation, and supply chain bottlenecks, and all the other ramifications.  We've talked about them a lot in recent months.  Suffice it to say that our cities and supermarkets are not ready to deal with an interruption of even a week in the arrival of foodstuffs and critical supplies.  Our transportation system is increasingly broken, from drought affecting the Mississippi, to diesel fuel prices and availability affecting trucking, to supply bottlenecks affecting everything.  It's never made more sense to have a food reserve in your home, so that if such interruptions arrive (perhaps I should say "when"), we can get through them.  If we can afford it, there's no reason not to prepare for longer shortages.

If you haven't already done so, I can only urge you to make what preparations you can, even at this late hour.  They probably won't be adequate (unless you have very deep pockets and can afford to pay through the nose to buy and have delivered all that you'll need), but they'll be a lot better than nothing.

Peter