Tuesday, August 30, 2022

Michael Yon and Tucker Carlson issue blunt warnings


We've heard a lot from Michael Yon in these pages recently.  That's because I think he's one of the few observers of the international scene who truly understands what's going on beneath the surface, where the writ of governments and authorities and figureheads runs out of steam.  Yesterday he warned:

Bangladesh collapsing. I did a recon there and Sri Lanka about five years ago. Bangladesh very significant. I was checking routes to Thailand in case of famine in India/Bangladesh. Refugees can swarm across Burma to Thailand.

To readers in Thailand, be prepared to face swarms at the border. Might take months or a year but at this rate can happen suddenly.

Meanwhile, Iraq. Presidential Palace and US Embassy evacuated. Sadrists swimming in the Presidential Pool, a place I remember well. Iran chomping.

Energy and food implications are severe locally, regionally, and globally.

You know you are in [a] war when something new and serious happens every hour, 24/7. We are there. We have reached the conditions we warned about.

From here out, nobody can stop it. This will go until it burns out. Nobody is in control but we do control ourselves. Tribe-up.

Please stop and focus on your preparations. This is no time for vacation unless you are very prepared.

You may be asking, "Why is Yon warning us about this when it's all about Bangladesh or Pakistan?  That won't affect us here!"  Well, I'm sorry to burst your bubble, but it will.  If hundreds of thousands of refugees flee those countries, they'll destabilize the nations to or through which they flee.  Many of them will end up on our southern border, trying to cross into this country, because it's the safest place they can think of.  (They're wrong about that, but they won't be in any mood to listen to arguments.)  Furthermore, international agreements and treaties will come under pressure to deal with the diaspora;  and supplies of food and other essentials will be disrupted as population patterns change.  In our modern, interconnected world, any country is more and more interdependent on every other nation.  That's a fact of life.

In his 1926 novel "The Sun Also Rises", recognized today as one of his greatest works, Ernest Hemingway put these words into the mouths of his characters:

“How did you go bankrupt?” Bill asked.

“Two ways,” Mike said. “Gradually and then suddenly.”

The international scene feels very much like that to me at present.  Over the past few years we've seen a slow but steady escalation in tensions, problems, difficulties . . . call it what you will.  The Covid-19 pandemic accelerated that, making things much worse, very quickly - but initially, governments kept a lid on the mounting pressures.  Now . . . now it seems the lid is about to blow off.  Energy prices, shortages, social unrest and conflict, wars, famine - they're all coming to a head.  Every day we read about, and sometimes encounter, new and more difficult issues.  Few, if any, can be solved easily.  Many can't be solved at all.

As far as many nations are concerned, and international relations between them, I think we've reached the "suddenly" part of "Gradually and then suddenly".  Things are about to go out of control in much of the world.  "About" can mean weeks or months, but I no longer think we're talking about years.  Just look at how an unstable country can affect others.

  • Pakistan has nuclear weapons - reportedly at least a hundred of them - plus delivery systems for them.  What if the political unrest there combines with the pressures caused by current flooding to produce an upheaval in government?  What if, taking advantage of that, the Pakistani Taliban move to seize control of those nukes?  What if some jihadist leader gets his hands on one or two of them and launches them against whichever nation he regards as most evil?  There can't be any good ending to that at all . . .
  • China needs an external distraction to take its citizens' minds off their internal economic problems.  What if it launches an invasion of Taiwan?  That would drag every major Asian nation into taking sides, and probably pitch the USA into war.
  • What if the ongoing Russian invasion of Ukraine hits a crisis point at which Russia believes it has nothing to lose, and launches a nuclear warhead against a Ukrainian target?
  • What if, as winter sets in, people across Europe rise in literal revolt against unaffordable energy prices?
  • What if a new wave of impoverished invaders from the Third World swarm across the borders in Europe and the USA, desperate to get away from the famine and poverty and destruction they're encountering everywhere else?
I could go on, but you get the point.  I can only emphasize one paragraph from Mr. Yon's warning.

You know you are in [a] war when something new and serious happens every hour, 24/7. We are there. We have reached the conditions we warned about.

I agree.  So, from a different perspective, does Tucker Carlson, who warns:  "Things are falling apart very quickly".  If you'd like to read his remarks rather than watch this video clip, a transcript may be found here.

Again, I agree.



Cederq said...

To keep them over there, either east or west we will have to shoot down planes and sink boats out over the oceans. A hard heart will have to anneal... If we don't, it will strain our already social and financial systems as well as food and housing. First we have to take care of the traitors and leftest, radical government and NGO people and do gooder Catholic and Lutheran Social Societies. We were the worlds policemen, not any longer and we are not going to be the world's babysitter.

BrentG said...

And we already aren't sinking the ships, so we know none of that is likely to happen. Get ready....

James said...

All was predicted in "Camp of the Saints". Read today, 50 years after publication, the predictions are stunning. How ironic that in the future the only Western People with a chance to survive will be the virulent racists who can kill the other without remorse.

Arthur Sido said...

Meanwhile Our Greatest Ally is trying to get us to threaten Iran with military strikes, as if we need another proxy war as Ukraine drags on.

Old NFO said...

Truly sad times... And the 'resolution' may not be palatable to a lot of folks.

deb harvey said...

access denied to carlson transcript

deb harvey said...

probably dissolution, not resolution

Winterborn said...

As I go through Zeihan's "The end of the world is just the beginning" and thank you Peter for pointing me at his books. Having just read all 4, and at the end of the book above. This is exactly what he was forecasting as well.

The coal lines, burning any wood they can, and eventually down to Lignite (crappiest coal of all) anywhere they can.

Reeeeal interesting times seem to be on the way. I live in Alaska, I shudder to think on the price of oil coming up real soon for a re fill. Wood pellets too. Etc.

Hope they don't get kinetic, but people rarely stay put when starving and freezing. One quote in the book that pops up as I write this "More governments have fallen to famine than ever have to war" change that to "people" and it goes along with the line that "Plumbers have saved more lives than all the doctors.

Francis Turner said...

Don't forget the drought in China....

There is going to be a worldwide famine next year. There is no way to avoid it, the only question is how bad will it be

edlfrey said...

"a transcript may be found here."

Access Denied

Peter said...

To those getting an "Access Denied" message when you try to access the Tucker Carlson transcript: this is a known error in the way Fox News' Web site handles direct URL's like this. It works for me, and for most of us, but every now and again it gets its socks in a knot and won't let someone through. Just try again, if necessary clearing your browser cache, and it should eventually work.

Aesop said...

The problem with Yon is that he's been issuing the exact same Chicken Little warnings for literally years.

If you're the guy who warns about Titanic hitting an iceberg as you're bearing down on it, you're just the 17th guy to yell "I am Spartacus!"

If you warn about it an hour before it happens, you're a prophet.

But if you're warning about it before the keel is laid, and every day until it goes down, you're just a curmudgeonly grump.

I could name a couple of blogs that are doom-and-gloom 24/7/365/years too, and they're an open joke, depending as they do on the Broken Clock Theorem Of Rightness.

Like war warnings or volcanic eruptions, when it actually happens, you won't need to be told.

"Get ready..."? Okay, noted. Prudent advice.
"No, really, I mean it this time, it's really going off!"?

My namesake wrote a story about that.
You might have heard it before.


Xoph said...

We have been on this trajectory for a while. People who know enough history recognize this, and if anyone is honest then you know enough to know you can't predict when or exactly what will happen. However, it doesn't take a genius to know shit is going to get real.

You can prepare too early but you can't prepare too late. Choose.


"What if...?!" Seriously? I will believe it when I see it. I have been prepping, training, and observing since Y2K. Tell me when. A broken clock is right twice a day. - DTW.

BlogReader said...

"The problem with Yon is that he's been issuing the exact same Chicken Little warnings for literally years." For anyone who hasn't been following Michael Yon and wondering: two. Two years is how long. And barely that. He's been saying that if we don't do something to head off the catastrophes brewing around us this will be the outcome, but it's really only been the past year that he's declared that said catastrophes have overwhelmed us and the results are now inevitable. He's been warning to prepare, but he's not been Chicken Little. He's been more of the watch on the Titanic yelling "Turn!Turn!Turn!" and then finally changed to, "Oh &#@%^ - JUMP!"
Only 'jump' is 'tribe up.'