By now we've surely all heard about Hamas' attack on Israel. How they managed to make so many preparations in secret for so long is a question many are asking, and I'm sure there'll be an inquest to end all inquests in Israel in due course. Be that as it may, Israel has suffered a body blow to its self-image. The "proud Jewish state" has been humbled in the eyes of most people in the Middle East, and that's a dangerous thing, because many of them will be tempted to get in on the act. Hezbollah in Lebanon, Iranian Revolutionary Guards and their proxy forces in Syria, and the Palestinian government of the West Bank are almost certainly gearing up, ready and waiting for their chance to strike. I'd say things are balanced on a knife-edge right now.
I don't think any or all of those forces can actually defeat Israel, militarily speaking; but if they attack, they can inflict massive damage and casualties, and force Israel to fight on multiple fronts. That, in turn, will disrupt the Israeli economy, causing long-term harm to the nation. Worse, any success will inflame popular opinion in the Arab world, and possibly force more extreme states like Qatar to provide more in the way of support to the Palestinian cause.
There's almost incontrovertible evidence that Iran has been a major factor in equipping, training and encouraging Hamas to strike, and I daresay the same is true of Hezbollah. Israel already knows Iran is bent on its destruction, because Iran has publicly called for it and promised it for decades. If Israel finds itself fighting on multiple fronts, and if Iran has supplied the missiles and drones that its allies need to take on Israel's undoubted conventional military superiority, then I'd say it's more than possible that Israel will decide to deal directly with Iran. That might even include a nuclear strike against strategic Iranian targets, including that country's nuclear program, its major infrastructure (power generating facilities, dams, ports and airports) and other targets. I don't think Israel will attack population centers, but it's more than capable of completely crippling Iran's economy with ten or a dozen carefully targeted nuclear warheads.
Some say Israel won't dare do that; that it'll pull back for fear of US retaliation by withholding arms supplies, spare parts, etc. and/or withdrawing diplomatic support. On the other hand, the Biden administration has done its utmost - including direct interference in the recent Israeli elections - to make it clear that it dislikes and distrusts the current Israeli government. Therefore, Netanyahu might decide that he has little or nothing to lose by taking extreme action against Iran, because he can't trust the USA anyway. I fear he's probably right, at least under the present US administration.
I fear we may be on the brink of a nuclear war in the Middle East. I'm quite sure Israel is at least considering its options in that regard. If it makes that call, consider what that will mean for geopolitics in the immediate future.
- Russia's developing relationship with Iran may lead it to side with that nation against Israel. If that happens, Israel may abandon its restraint towards Ukraine, and supply that state with some very advanced and battle-proven weapons indeed. What next?
- Iran may try to shelter under the Russian nuclear "umbrella", perhaps including threats by Russia to strike back if Israel nukes Iran. If so, what's to stop Israel transferring some nuclear warheads to Ukraine?
- Azerbaijan has used Israeli weapons and technology, as well as Turkish, to modernize its armed forces, which recently eliminated Armenia's control over Nagorno-Karabakh, to Russia's diplomatic discomfort. Iran is at odds with Azerbaijan, not least because Azeris form a substantial minority in Iran. If Iran comes under threat from Israel, will Azerbaijan take advantage of that distraction, within and/or outside Iran's borders? If so, how? What will Russia do if that happens?
- If Israel nukes Iran, expect other Arab states to develop their own nuclear deterrents as quickly as possible. I reckon Saudi Arabia would have nukes within a few months; they've bankrolled Pakistan for years, which can supply the warheads, and they already have delivery systems. Other wealthy Middle Eastern nations will doubtless follow suit. If that happens, expect states in other parts of the world to do the same. This may blow the lid off nuclear non-proliferation, and see warheads in much less stable parts of the world, under much less trustworthy controls.
- If any or all of the above happen, will other states take advantage of the distraction to launch their own attacks elsewhere? Will China retake Taiwan? Will North Korea try conclusions once again with South Korea? Will Russia move against the Baltic states, or Transinistria, or even Poland?
Pray for peace, friends. It's rather fragile tonight.
Peter
22 comments:
These attacks may be enough to set the MidEast on fire.
The images I have seen are horrific, and show that there is no possibility of peace between Islam and the rest of the world, except the peace of the grave.
I have not followed Israeli politics closely enough, but I seem to remember that their Security/ Intelligence people were politically aligned against Netenyahu about reining in their Leftist Supreme Court.
Could they have declined to notify their government about this?
Israeli intelligence is usually much more thorough.
John in Indy
Tom Kratman did a first rate analysis of constraints imposed on Israel by aircraft range and territorial air space combined with tanker availability. Of course there were SAC mission profiles that called for running the fuel tanks dry and dead sticking in - mostly on Arctic ice with potential pickup by surviving submarines if any - perhaps more acceptable to the crews knowing there would likely be no bases and no family housing standing.
I suspect the IDF is going to come down hard on the Gaza. It may in fact clean house fully. I have mixed feelings about that.
I just zipped through the first 7 chapters of Dorothy's Dust novel. Very good. Sounds like it may or should turn into a series. Gonna have to slow, if possible, and enjoy the read more.
Jack
Praying that nuclear war doesn't happen. I swear, the mossad must have an entire freaking omelette on their collective faces, for somehow missing this! Seriously, how did they miss *this*, when they know if a gnat farts at an Iranian nuclear research facility? I don't know. But somebody, several sombodies, definitely screwed up. Lord have mercy on the innocent.
And Given many factors of our being involved in everybody's business that some part of this nuclear event MIGHT be inside the USA.
Feckless leadership of the "Leader of the Free World" DOES have consequences.
Fancy arguments that "it's not our war, not our fault and so on matters not a whit to angry people we've screwed with and want to settle the score. Extra points IF you can MAKE IT LOOK like someone Else (Your enemy) did it.
Got enough canned goods and rice to carry you though a real war(tm) INSIDE America?
1 Thessalonians 5:3 ESV
While people are saying, “There is peace and security,” then sudden destruction will come upon them as labor pains come upon a pregnant woman, and they will not escape.
Praying for wisdom and guidance.
Hezbollah getting into the act too make it pretty clear that this is approved by, if not sponsored by, Iran. I suspect that once the situation has been stabilized and the invaders repulsed, the Israeli air force are going to pay a visit to Tehran and visit that will undoubtedly be aided by Saudi Arabia and the rest of the Sunni gulf states. It isn't clear to me how much the Arab in the street cares about Palestinians any more. At least not the Arabs in the richer mostly Sunni states that are also facing Iranian sponsored destabilization by their Shia minorities.
I suspect that if HamAss and friends are expecting international pressure to stop Israel from massive retaliation they are in fact SoL. Particularly some at least one of the Peace Rave victims seems to have been a German, I strongly suspect that the EU will not be inclined to pay attention. After all Europe still has the Ukraine war to be concerned about and has to also deal with increasing dissatisfaction with how the various governments are handling migrants that, if not Palestinian, seem similar.
Russia has no cycles to spare on Israel. If it gets involved in condemnation it is likely to see Israel more strongly support Ukraine and it reall really doesn't want that.
China is not going to say much because the Palestinians can easily painted to look like either Uighurs or Taiwanese.
So that leaves the US. Where the GOP is strongly pro-Israel. That's the one thing that unites the Trump and non-Trump parts And on the dementia side, even the Sisterwife has come out condemning HamAss (https://twitter.com/IlhanMN/status/1710730202353934338?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw ) which is remarkable.
So I suspect HamAss is going to reap the whirlwind and no one is going to listen to their please for it to end
Why so much ink spilled today blaming Israel for not anticipating the sneak attack?
did the much larger, better funded, and better equipped US government know about this? (if they did and didn't act, shame on them, if not, why blame Israel?)
Also, Hamas is Evil, that doesn't require that they be Stupid as well
This is far from the first time that there has been a surprise attack on Israel, and it won't be the last. Given how many different governments there have been in the last few years, it's unclear that the current one is to blame for any lack of warning. How they respond is going to determine what happens to them over time.
Hamas has enough forces to make trouble, but not enough to defeat Israel (unless Iran has given them nukes). I really don't expect Israel to use their nukes until one is used against them (not necessarily successfully, just attempted to be used would probably be enough)
I really have been surprised about the onslought of negativity towards Israel in the reporting. The extreme Left is blaming the attack on Israel directly (Jews dared to pray at the Western Wall, so they deserve to be killed). I expect them to be crying about the results of the counterattacks soon.
But the more centralist and right leaning publications seem to be blaming Israel indirectly, for not having anticipated the attack and prevented it, for not stopping the thousands of rockets, for the fact that their border fence can be taken down by a bulldozer, etc.
Why??
"Given how many different governments there have been in the last few years, it's unclear that the current one is to blame for any lack of warning. "
THIS.
There is a difference between "bureaucratic civilian government" and "ability to manage and project self defensive power."
In democratic republics - the United States is not a democracy, we are a democratically-elected representative republic which is a huge difference from "a democracy" - elected civilian control of the military is embedded in the country's DNA. That does not mean the elected civilians do not have a responsibility to maintain adequate military resources and maintain them in such a manner as to ensure a robust national protective condition.
It looks like Israel Effed Up, I'm sure we'll learn more over time, but some, or most, of that may have come from the diffusion of political will caused by social and political infighting.
Kind of like what we have here.
Israel got its butt kicked; we're due for the same comeuppance; I'm waiting for some terrorist organizaton to open some Canned Sunshine over a major US city any day now.
In the meantime, Israel will soon show the world just jow one deals with Evil; we should pay attention. Not that will help as long as the people we have in Washington are still in Washington.
1) There are no "Palestinians" in Gaza. There are Egyptian Arabs.
Just as the West Bank has Jordanian Arabs.
Israel is about to do what they should have done in '67 or '73: repatriate the Egyptian Arabs back to Egypt, wholesale.
Egypt doesn't want them (just as Jordan doesn't want theirs either) because they're the exact radicals that always stir the pot, and the exact type that gunned down Sadat after he signed the peace treaty with Israel.
They're getting them back anyways, now at the end of bayonets. Anybody that doesn't want to go willingly can have their 72 virgins. Netanyahu has essentially announced "ZFG", without exception, ASAP.
And if any more rockets fly after that, it's Cairo that's going to take it in the pants in return. They quit that game 50 years ago, so Egypt will round up and shoot the radicals the minute they need an excuse, partly because they'll have to, and mostly because they'll want to.
2) Israel used to be limited; everyone thought they'd go after Iran, but the reality is any strike on Iran was a one-way ticket. Their strike on Iraq's Osirak reactor at the time was the bare limit of range and payload for Israeli forces at the time, and Iran would be the farthest end of a one-way ticket.
And Israelis haven't been big on suicide missions since Masada.
3)But Trump's DoD torched that long-lasting restriction when we sold air-to-air refueling technology and the tankers to do it Israel. They can now hit anything they want, to the limit of their equipments' abilities. If they hit Iran, the Saudis, Kuwaitis, etc., will look the other way. And quietly toast their success.
If Israel tells them they'll be hitting Iranian nuclear facilities, the Saudis will give them the avgas for free, and probably pump it into the IAF's planes. Nobody in that part of the world wants a nuclear Iran.
4) Stock up on popcorn. And if you haven't got a place to hang out for some time with 3'-6' of earthen cover, you might want to rethink that situation.
This isn't Armageddon, but it's certainly setting the table to open that in the not-so-distant future.
As I watched the video of men going door to door in a kibbutz with the occasional gunshot in the background, the videos of them loading women to take with them and truck loads of armed men set loose to hunt I imagined someone off to the sides muttering "I thought we vowed never again" to themselves...
Israel is a nation of soft targets? I never expected that... then again I'd always thought Russia had a quality army, so I guess there are a lot of things that are not what I imagined...
Unknown asks "Why?"
Because the US has spent 10's of billions of dollars on Israel over the decades. The US has spent 100's of billions on intelligence over the decades. Most major US politicians pledge support of and kowtow towards Israel, the US's "greatest ally". The majority of the wonderful US foreign policy over the last 2 decades has been directed by neocons that are mostly of Jewish heritage.
So either is the greatest failure of Israel/US intelligence since 9/11 or the unthinkable: it was allowed to happen for some larger scheme of geopolitics.
Either way, the innocent suffer regardless of their faith or nationality. I say a daily prayer for them.
Also ponder on this: The current US administration just gave Iran billions of dollars and keeps the US border open where hundreds of thousands of military age men have been welcome in over that last two years. No paragliders or bulldozers were necessary to breach our defenses.
at last count there were 120k iranian troops right across the border under the guise of peacekeeping. i'm thinking the iranians finally got the bomb, and are ready to complete their mission. israel intel missed this b/c the people have gone full woke retarded, all in on vax etc. our intel is even worse. pearl harbor moment any time now.
The Netanyahu regime may also have let it happen to save themselves from the legal fiasco. FUSA may have encouraged it to prevent Israeli rapprochement with the Saudis.
Israeli nuclear doctrine has never had any sort of "no first use" pledge. In 1973 they armed their nuclear arsenal when they were losing badly in the first days of that war. The poor performance of the IDF against Hezbollah in 2006 also led to rumors of a low yield mini nuke being used in south Lebanon. This probably did not happen, but the rumor sprang from the reality that the IDF has no other method of defeating the deeply dug in Hezbollah forces there and they cannot intercept all of the missiles lobbed at them either.
The situation in Lebanon has not gotten any better since 2006, and if that front opens up again, Hezbollah will flatten the Israeli heartland. The situation in Gaza is not much better for them as Hamas is also tunneled deeply under the large city that sits on the Gaza Strip. The only way Israel can neutralize either of these problems is with WMD of some sort. With southern Israel being so close, the most convenient weapon for this would be the neutron bomb. I don't think they would use "conventional" nuclear weapons on Gaza, as fallout from a surface burst would land all over Israel and an air burst might still cause unacceptable EMP damage across the country.
It is hard to see how they can defeat either Hamas or Hezbollah by conventional tactics and with conventional weapons. There are simply too many deep tunnels in both places and the price for a ground attack into either is also likely to be way beyond what they are willing or able to pay. If they wanted to try it for a while, we might see Joe Biden empty out the US stocks of penetrator bombs to see if they can rubble Gaza and collapse the Hamas tunnel system in the process. This will take considerable time and the civilian population will be killed in apocalyptic numbers. I do not think the Moslem World will stand by for that. There will be escalation from Hezbollah and most of the Middle East will line up with Iran despite their differences.
1973 saw the same phenomenon. The Islamic World mobilized in response to the war and armies and air forces were sent to assist the Syrians and Egyptians. Our Saudi "allies" pulled out the oil embargo weapon in response to America's resupply effort to save Israel, and the result was the 1973 Gas Crisis. If you lived through that little unplanned calamity, you did not soon forget it. You will remember that the dolt in the White House has gutted US domestic oil production and sold the strategic petroleum reserve to the Chinese. The same geniuses have also emptied the ammunition stocks in the failed Ukraine project, So Israel will not be able to extort very much out of us in the way of resupply this time. They are big users of 155mm HE rounds, (among other things) in these periodic fights with their neighbors, so the long war/grind them down approach is probably not a reasonable option.
It ought to be an interesting week as the stock markets crash and the price of oil goes to the moon. Just in time for winter
"This may blow the lid off nuclear non-proliferation, and see warheads in much less stable parts of the world, under much less trustworthy controls."
Huh. As if we can really claim that the current nuclear club is particularly stable and trustworthy.
Shades of FDR tin foil hattery follows:
Hamas and Hez have been consistent and annoying for years. But pin pricks and have not been able to attack at a level that would allow Israeli civilian opinion, let alone world opinion, to accept a "winning" military solution to the problem.
This attack has been "successful" enough for Israel to to something that will finally provide some long term relief from these attacks.
Was it an intentional lapse in intelligence? Did FDR allow the Japanese attack at Pearl Harbor?
Not my monkeys, not my circus.
Israel can deal with Israel's problems. We should stay the hell out of it.
They're not our ally, far from it, in fact.
Israel, like the US has come to rely on Signal Intelligence for info. If Hamas decided to go old school...no electronic communications regarding their actual plans combined with electronic chatter about false plans for attacks elsewhere then the IDF might pull assets from the Gaza area to say the West Bank. Combine this feint with attacking during a major holiday and I can see how Israel was caught off guard. The muzzie terroriste are evil, not stupid. Israel has to guess there intentions correctly all the time. The terrorists need be lucky just once to case massive damage.
Israel has their own (notably improved) version of the f-35 that they created long range tanks for that do not compromise stealth. They can strike Iran without tanker support. Search for f-35 Adir. Here's one example article.
https://www.thedrive.com/the-war-zone/israel-has-extended-the-range-of-its-f-35s-report
Don't have to deep strike the tunnels, when you can just precision strike the air vents or the entrances. This is so not WWII where it takes air wings and multiple strikes to hit the targets. Hell wouldn't surprise me if the IDF has access to stealth that can reach anywhere in the Arab world at this point.
I wouldn't foresee Israel digging Hamas out street by street.
I see them pushing everyone in Gaza out from North to South.
Permanently.
That won't be nukes.
It'll be bulldozers.
Ah, south to Egypt instead of west to the sea. I can see that also.
https://www.google.com/maps/@31.1567308,33.9005222,7.99z?entry=ttu
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