We've all seen the reports that vehicle insurance premiums are rising rapidly (I've seen numbers like a 20%+ increase in one year bandied about). An anonymous car dealer, posting on Twitter, explains.
We are in the midst of a "total loss" epidemic.
More than *20%* of vehicles are now declared a write-off by insurers after examining claims.
That's around *five* times higher than in 1980.
But why?
One big reason is that the cost of vehicle repairs has increased by almost 50% since the pandemic started—far exceeding inflation.
Another major driver?
Declining used car prices.
It may seem counterintuitive, but the rate at which used car prices have fallen over the past couple of years encourages salvaging instead of repair...
And all that contributes to an increase in vehicle write-offs.
There are lots of responses at the link, which are worth reading in themselves. A few examples:
- "General manager of a corporate body shop here. I’ve seen several drivers contributing to this. First, cost of repair. We’re essentially driving computers now. Parts scarcity driven from Covid manufacturing slump and the manufacturing strikes, increased both length of rental (which most people don’t understand factors into cost of repair on the insurance side) and constructive total losses (where parts are now obsolete or on intergallactic back order). This drove salvage value to the moon."
- "Used to work in a claim reporting call center taking first reports. Almost any time an airbag deploys a car is going to be deemed a total loss due to the cost to replace the airbag. Especially side ones."
- "Insurance companies often benefit by totaling a car. If your 4k car costs 5k to repair, they give you 4k and leave it to you to find a replacement car (good luck) while they sell your car to a salvager who can cheaply fix it for 2k. They are out 2k instead of 5k. Numbers are made up but the concept is real."
I've had two vehicle insurance claims in the past year, one my own fault (backing into a brick postbox container that was hard to see behind my vehicle) and the other not (hitting a dog that ran out into the road, too close to miss it). In both cases, I was unpleasantly surprised at the quotes from repair shops. The insurance paid on both occasions, but I continue to feel ripped-off at the sums involved (particularly when the repair shops used third-party parts rather than original equipment).
That was confirmed to me by needing new headlights for my vehicle a few months ago. The dealership wanted $1,200 plus labor costs for OEM headlights, while a repair shop wanted $1,600 including labor to fit third-party headlights. (If I was in better physical shape, I could have done the installation myself, but I can't bend and twist like that any more.) By shopping around on eBay, then looking for a repair shop that charged a reasonable rate for the job, I got away with total costs of less than $600 - still expensive, IMHO, but much more realistic than the earlier quotes.
I think these figures indicate yet another reason to buy an older, cheaper vehicle as a runabout. Third-party-only insurance is a lot cheaper than comprehensive, and if you haven't paid a lot for your old car, it doesn't hurt as much to write it off and look for another one. Unfortunately, in the US at least, first Obama's "cash for clunkers" scheme, and then COVID-19's impact on sales, have clobbered the used car market, boosting values - or, rather, prices, because used vehicles just aren't that valuable as such - to insane levels. I guess there's no easy way out of this conundrum right now.
*Sigh*
Peter
34 comments:
And yet most people are too stupid to understand economics. Cars are certainly more expensive because of asinine government regulations on emissions and safety and the consumer pays for it. I'm driving vehicles over 10 years old with almost 170k miles.
The optimal amount of technology and emissions and reparability by a weekend mechanic was in the 1990s.
We can thank Obama voters and cowardly Grand Ole Poltroons for the situation.
There's also this push to have x % EVs/hybrids by 2030/2035. But lots of folks understood that EVs are not to the level of functionality and reliability as gas cars. To force people into EVs, they must make life of those with gas cars a living hell.
Your headlights example is another reason why the prices and therefore the insurance have skyrocketed. It used to be that lights were in a housing, so if a bulb went out from an impact (or it died), you replaced the bulb. Now, you have to replace the integrated assembly for a lot more bucks. Also in modern cars, the assembly contains the computer sensors for "smart" driving. After an accident and replacement, those sensors need to be realigned so the car's computer will properly run the rest of the car.
That requires specialized equipment and skill. Also, the equipment and method to align the sensor equipment on the car from one manufacturer, won't work on the sensor equipment from a different car manufacturer. [At one time, the needed repair computers were dealer only.] Remember the 3 lugs on a headlight that the alignment level would fit with the suction cup and it worked regardless of the car manufacturer? Well, that doesn't exist anymore. You go to the dealer and pay whatever (extortionate) rate they charge.
Lastly, the use of plastics & composites vs sheet metal have contributed as well. Sheet metal could have the dent pounded out, a little putty applied, smoothed, and then painted. Plastics & composites break and have to be replaced for bucks as they crack/shatter instead of bending.
The cost of auto-insurance is one of those things that, for some weird reason, is not included in the inflation rate.
The vehicle market is a mess in all sorts of ways AFAICT
The Wuflu mess did a real hit on the leasing business too. 2020/21 a lot of people managed to not replace the previous 2 or 3 year lease car. Partly because replacement cars weren't available, also people drove less so that they weren't bumping up on the mileage limits. So some people bought out the lease using COVID money. Some people stayed WFH and didn't replace the car. Etc.
And then mysteriously the price of cars (in the US at least) went up a lot. Here in Japan not so much (and definitely not in US$ terms), but we still decided to lease a car because buying the 2-3 year off lease car wasn't possible. Anyway our new car is leased for 5 years and we'll see what the market is like in 2028
Older used cars are also more desirable than newer ones, to what seems an increasing number of folks, due to the "rolling computer" phenomenon.
Part of the issue is simple inflation. Check the value of the dollar in 1980 versus 2024. A 1980 dollar buys $3.81.
@ Spamtrap
not to disagree - or be disagreeable, but I wish "A 1980 dollar buys $3.81."
(I was already 40 years old in 1981)
a $10 bag of groceries in 1981 is now costing well over $50 in my part of the country; just take a look at the price of a can (and size) of Campbell's Chicken Noodle Soup.
One driver in Texas is vehicle theft. Cartels have a ‘bounty’ or pay fees to thieves for trucks in particular. Manufacturers make it very, very easy to get in and the equipment needed to clone an electronic key is readily available. It’s paid for with a single score. That’s bad enough, but, major metro police departments and the surrounding jurisdictions are doing nothing on stolen vehicle reports, even if you have the location with active tracking. All you get is
1) a report number for your insurance company
2) vin, and vehicle description entered into data base so if the vehicle is stopped it will come up as stolen.
That’s it, the whole affair is conducted over the phone, there’s not even an officer dispatched. Everybody loses in this situation and this is drive straight from the top - chiefs, sheriffs, DA’s all rate this targeted vehicle theft as nothing more than ‘a felony crime that should be a misdemeanor property crime’ like vandalism. It’s not just Texas, anywhere close to the Mexico border - within 3 hours.
Law enforcement is not taking vehicle theft seriously any more and they need to unf*ck themselves.
Comparing my insurance cost to previous years, what I find has gone up the most is the uninsured motorist part, followed by liability. There are too many illegals in this country driving without insurance.
Hey Peter,
And factor in how many people are driving with no insurance, we are paying for them also.
Good luck getting a used vehicle that isn't already salvaged or restored salvage for a decent price. And for the salvaged, it doesn't pay to have anything more than liability coverage. We recently had an accident where the other driver made a sudden right turn from the second-from-right lane in front of us. She was totally at fault, carried no insurance, and has no money to sue for. Liability didn't cover that. Oh, and surprisingly, not an illegal.
It's expensive, but nonetheless, get the highest level of coverage you can possibly afford.
https://m.youtube.com/shorts/nVchx6qeTXA
https://m.youtube.com/shorts/ECzjjU4atA4
In the first part of your post you state that used car prices are declining and then at the end of the post you claim that CforC and Covid have caused used car prices to rise.
Which way we goinug?
"everything" these days is a computer with a {product} attached.
Coffee makers, clocks, cellphones, thermostats, cars and car windows. I had the driver side window go out on the van. Kept blowing circuits. It wasn't the obvious part, it was something else. When we passed $1732 for parts alone, I decided it might be time to get another 10 year old van.
My fear is I will not be able to afford a ten year old van - or anything - the next time.
Boron-Try Dollar Tree for soup. Campbell's soup is a $1.25 and my Walmart $1.69. I do a lot of my canned goods shopping there.
Bough a 3 year old SUV late last summer for $12K when going price was $20K, simply because it had a front end collision. Read the report, he hit someone in a town I knew and all repairs had been done with engine being fine. Only have had to have new tires for front end.
My 2014 car had plastic headlight covers that were less and less efficient at letting the bulbs light up the road. The plastic yellows and oxidizes with age.
For about $17, I bought one of those renovation kits that helps renew them. Worked great. I no longer think my headlights aren't working right at night.
No place is this more evident than the diesel truck market.
Up here used car prices are nearly the same as new, a 3-4 year old truck is around 5k less then new and since we are talking $60-100K there is no point in getting used, you can either afford new or can't afford it at all. Easier to get financing for new as well.
You can occasionally find some deals though. Check GovDeals.com a lot of agencies auction off old vehicles that way. I managed to get a 2014 Ford Explorer Police Interceptor with 162k miles for under 5k, that will be replacing my 2007 Dodge Caliber, neither are impressive but in both cases it's fully paid for.
@ Anonymous
when I came out of the AF in '68 (to NYC, no less - I was going back to school), I can remember a can of Campbell's Chicken Noodle Soup (a mainstay of my diet with toassted day-old white bread) selling for 15¢; (I won't/can't argue the exact price: my mind may be going fer sure, and it may have been on sale so I'd buy several).
$1.25! - for how many chintzy ounces now?
As the old joke goes, I'd sooner steal a chicken (even catch an infested, infected pigeon) and boil it with some pasta.
But, TNX. Nice to know there may still be some places that won't empty my scrawny wallet in one shot.
The best way to stop high prices is don’t pay them.
Geico jacked up my premium, so high , I shopped and found progressive at less than half the rate. Insurance commission said each company sets premiums according to its losses.
Don't forget that car insurance rates vary wildly depending on vehicle, driver, and overnight location.
In the last 5 years my rates have gone up about 10 percent. I also carry very high levels of insurance and a small deductible with a good driving record.
Note that I've found that a small deductible costs very little more than a large deductible - in my case, the difference between a $1200 deductible and a $250 deductible was $20 a year.
Jonathan
My truck was stolen and driven around for six months in my own north Texas town. I just happened to see it one night and tracked it down myself and recovered it. The driver was arrested at one point and the truck impounded, but for some reason it was returned to them. They even tried to have it insured, but the agency refused because it was on the hot sheet. The police, impound lot and the insurance agency never informed me of any of this. The only notice I received was a toll bill. The thief had driven on a toll road.
At least you did not hit the black bear in central Texas.
“Rare black bear dies after getting hit by truck in Texas Hill Country”
https://www.chron.com/life/wildlife/article/texas-black-bear-killed-19495041.php
“A male black bear is dead after getting hit by a truck on a busy Central Texas highway over the weekend. The Divide Volunteer Fire Department, which is based in Mountain Home, Texas, said the tragic accident occurred along Highway 83, approximately three miles south of Garven Store, around 10 p.m. Saturday night. The driver suffered minor injuries. However, the bear was found dead approximately 30 feet from where he was hit by the truck, the fire department said. A game warden took possession of the bear after the incident. ”
He did not listen to his mama. She said stay off the road.
Waitwaitwait...
Car insurance companies are gouging customers and ripping them off just to make a buck???
Stop the presses!
What will they think of next?
:)
lol... love the geico comment.
We must have bad luck with others hitting our cars or involving us in their wrecks. over last 6 or 7 years 5 or 6 times. and our insurance kept inching up. well wife got a speeding ticket last year-ish and i actually got ticketed for someone hitting me. don't ask.. its one of those i didn't do anything wrong but was stopped in the road by traffic and someone hit me and it was my fault. sigh... geico raised our insurance from 2000 a year to 6000 a year on the next premium... I figured it had to be a FU raise to get me to go away.. which it did.. they also canceled my home insurance for having a damaged roof? which I don't, however it is a older roof :).. I was feeling very abused. Checked around and found that not only geico but a bunch of insurance companies are canceling policies on roofs over 10 years old.. not sure how that is legal but they are doing it. Was told by a relative the represents people for that sort of insurance stuff that there really is no recourse as they can not renew your policy just because they feel like it. Told me I was lucky that someone else immediately picked it up.
called state farm on the phone. Just straight up told them the story and about speeding ticket and me being ticketed for last accident and they were like "huh.. lets see what we can do... my car insurance went down to 1000 a year for both cars and home owners was just slightly lower. Took about 30 minutes back and forth on phone and in email and it was done. Ended up saving me 1000 dollars a year from the older rate from geico much less the FU rate. I'm irked with them to say the least.
Weird thing with state farm was that they wanted me to put a gps tracker on our car that used an app on my phone to track how fast we drove and where. When I got them in the mail I called them and was like.. hey whats this? and then after they told me I got a discount if I voluntarily used them I was like "yeah.. No." lol. just told them that I delt with sensitive data through work that didn't allow me to install much of any apps on my phone for securities sake which is true. My insurance went up 10 dollars per premium period.
Funny thing is that we drive 98 percent of the time no faster than 55 mph anyways.. However I'm not letting anyone track my comings and goings voluntarily. I don't recognize the world im living in anymore..
See also this city journal article
@audeojude
You did fine, only because they only increased your peremium $10/mo.
But if the difference for that ever gets to $20/month or more, you've reached the break-even to get the cheapest no-contract bare minimum second phone you can. Have the app installed on that one. Leave it at home. (Ideally, in a drawer in the garage. Dead battery optional.)
State Farm gets what they asked for, you get the discount.
All above-board.
Be as wise as serpents, and innocent as doves.
@ Francis
That article makes a certain amount of sense. If the police don't enforce traffic laws and people figure that out, it's not likely to increase compliance with traffic laws.
It could be people just don't care anymore, either. It's fairly routine for me to get stuck behind someone who gets five cars following them but won't pull and state law has a mandatory slow moving vehicle turnout law. It's also common for me to see people run red lights.
This is a self-inflicted problem. We elect the people who could fix all this by the end of the week, and GM could start building Tata equivalents. Instead, we complain about the society we built and move on with our lives.
Liberty is hard. Do we deserve it?
I just took in my 2001 Civic with 250k miles for a $3500 paint repair. Blue Book says it's worth half of that, but it's cheap to run and still reliable. I'm keeping it as long as possible.
@pyotr
you aren't kidding you wont be able to afford a decent 10 year old car, I im trying to find a 20 year old one and they are to expensive now. I'm trying to replace a old minivan with 310,000 miles on it. if it hadn't been hit I would still be driving it till it died and the drive train is in great shape. :( I purchased it for 1400 dollars with 178,000 miles on it 6 or 7 years ago. I haven't spent more than 1500 dollars in maintenance during that time. radiator and alternator, brakes and tires, oil changes. Pretty much it.
It's a 2004 Chevy Venture, 3 rows of seats, a cheap interior, 25 gallon tank and gets 24 to 27 miles to the gallon if you don't drive faster than 55, i can go 600 miles on a tank. In my search for a replacement I had the neat idea of purchasing another one and doing the same thing. there is a problem with that though.. there aren't many of them as Chevy only made them from 2000ish to 2004 or 5 and then discontinued them. People don't sell them and dealerships are selling decent ones not for the 2200 dollars for a low millage version it says they are worth but for 6 to 12 thousand dollars. Probably because people like me figured out that you just can't stop them and parts are cheap and they get 40% better fuel economy than the same year Honda odyssey.
That is my criteria for replacing it. I want something that i can afford to pay cash for, 4500 right now. Cheap to repair, drive train has bullet proof reputation, decent mid mpg in something large enough to haul the family, go to lowes or do light towing in. Oh and it would be nice to have something that isn't part of the new generation of computer fly by wire cars they are selling now.
I actually had someone recommend a mechanic that is doing stuff from home today and I'm taking my van to get it looked at to see what he can do to fix the rear end back to normal function. screw the big dent in the fender well.
@Aesop
I like it. one day I guarantee it will be gov mandated.
@Σd00d
thats weird. I had someone in the left lane turn right in front of me to go in the entry to a gas station and I totaled my car hitting their rear bumper.. they almost made it. At first it looked like they were fraudulently insured/uninsured as they gave an old insurance card from a company that wasn't currently the insurer. When I called my insurance company and said it was looking like I would have to file it under under/uninsured they got real serious and took about 4 hours to find the insurance company that the truck was insured with. that sounds sorta comparable maybe to what you described? However I had 2 very nice gentlemen that saw what happened, stopped to check on us and stayed and testified to the officer when he showed up about what happened. To me it was just a blur and a bang it happened so fast.
The people in the truck were illegal aliens driving a company construction truck for work, f350 i think. Owner showed up before officer and immediately started talking about how I ran into his truck and was at fault, guy showed up in a slick suit and immediately started trying to craft the situation to his benefit. I'm scared what would have happened if those two gentlemen hadn't stopped and testified.
1) Any person making a left turn across traffic is automatically at fault if an accident results, about 99.99999% of the time. By definition, they don't ever have the right-of-way, and failed to proceed when it was safe.
2) Dashcam is your friend. It stops the b.s in seconds.
Post a Comment