Inflation and its growing threat to our stability

 

As I've said so often in these pages, the "official" rate of inflation bears little, if any, resemblance to reality.  Karl Denninger drives home the point - and reminds us why it's happening.  Emphasis in original except for orange highlighting, which is mine.

When I go to the grocery store the register tape -- and my Quicken -- says I'm spending a lot more money there.  Not a couple of percent over the last 12 months, an obscene increase.  Shelf prices are one thing, but actual paid prices are truth -- and those involve discounts, coupons, BOGOs and similar.  I, like most people, buy pretty much the same things to eat.  Spending over the last 12 months is in fact up more than 30%, not 2%.

Car insurance is claimed to be up about 20% -- and it is.  That's real, and everyone with a car has had to pay it.

But the government also claims that health insurance has been down in price by roughly 30%.  That's nonsense, and we all know it, but there it is.

. . .

The problem is that ... we "trained" Congress (and both political parties) that they can run 30% deficits and not have it show up as 8% inflation on a permanent basis.  That's flat-out false.

This in turn means that either we're going to absorb about 8% inflation (no matter what the government claims), [or] spending must come down by about 30% at the federal level and that is only to stabilize prices, not return them lower, or taxes must go up by about 40% which of course is another expense in the household and reduces disposable income.  The latter is politically impossible.

How does this resolve?

I don't have that answer -- but what I'm seeing on the ground is a profound decrease in consumer activity.  Yes, there are places where everything is "happy time" -- but that's not the country as a whole.

WalMart has noted it, and when it hits WalMart that's the people up to perhaps the top 10% of earners.

There's more at the link.

I can't argue with a word he says.  I agree that actual, boots-on-the-ground consumer inflation is presently at plus-or-minus 30% - I said the same thing last year.  I won't be surprised to learn that in some areas, it's closer to 50%.  We're perilously close to slipping into Weimar Republic-style hyperinflation.  Many will scoff at that assertion:  but they haven't studied history closely enough.  The parallels are real, and not hard to see for those with unblinkered economic eyes.

The biggest single problem, as I see it, is that too many Americans - corporate as well as individual citizens - have become accustomed to living off Uncle Sam's largesse.  Need money?  Turn to the federal government to provide it!  That's why more than half of America's families are receiving government benefits in one or more forms, and why many corporations are utterly dependent on government spending for their very existence.  Just how long would Lockheed Martin, or Archer Daniels Midland, or Halliburton, be able to continue to operate without the billions upon billions of dollars of government money they rake in every year?  How many industries are subsidized to the tune of billions more dollars because they spend millions on lobbying the government to do their bidding?  The US government is - and has been for a very long time - in bed with Big Business, and that's not going to change unless and until we throw out almost every Congressional representative and Senator and start over again.  If you think that's likely to happen, I have this bridge in Brooklyn, NYC I'd like to sell you.  It's a real bargain!  Cash only, please, and in small bills.

If we cut off this cornucopia of government largesse, we could solve our economic problems - and inflation - in short order.  However, to do so would involve short-term national pain that would make the Great Depression look like a minor economic hiccup.  That's why it's never going to happen voluntarily.  Nevertheless, if we get our own version of Weimar hyperinflation, it may be forced upon us, as the only way to get out of the economic hole we've dug for ourselves.  Not a happy thought.

That's one reason - and a big one - why I've built up our emergency reserves and supplies as best I can (not nearly as much as I'd like to, but as far as I can afford).  The time may come when that's all we can afford to eat.  Think I'm joking?  Go read the snippets I've posted from time to time about the reality, the lived experience, of Weimar hyperinflation, and think again.

Peter

Memes that made me laugh 186

 

Gathered from around the Internet over the past week.  Click any image for a larger view.

Sunday morning music

 

Back in 2015, I mentioned here that my wife and I had witnessed author, blogger and all-round good guy Mike Williamson dancing with his then one-year-old daughter to the tune of "Burger Dance", as performed by Austrian entertainer DJ Ötzi.  It's a variation on the "Fast Food Song", which is itself a variation on a traditional Moroccan children's song.  Whatever its origins, it's a real earworm.

Last night, at our weekly gathering of the North Texas Troublemakers, the song was mentioned again.  It made us all smile;  so I figured I'd inflict it on you again.

So much for your happy, holy, peaceful Sunday!

Peter

Still cleaning up, so no Snippet this morning

 

We're still cleaning up after our little flood last week, getting quotes for repairs and rectification, and dealing with contractors, insurers and what have you;  so I haven't had enough time to prepare my usual Saturday Snippet post.  Sorry about that, but I'm sure you understand.

Please amuse yourselves with the bloggers listed in my sidebar.  They write good too!

Peter

Adventures with blood pressure

 

As regular readers will know, last week we suffered water damage to our home when our dishwasher decided to fill itself late on Thursday night . . . and kept on filling itself.  Our insurers called in ServiceMaster within an hour of our lodging a claim, and they spent Friday testing for water contamination, cutting and boring holes in a couple of walls to aid air circulation, removing wet insulation, and preparing to dry out our home.  By Friday night there were more than a dozen big roaring fans and dehumidifiers at work, and they stayed in place until Tuesday.  Fortunately, all went well, and we're now into the process of getting quotes to replace flooring and repair the damage.

Unfortunately, the stress of dealing with all that, and the non-stop 24/7 noise of all those roaring fans, affected my health.  I hadn't expected that, but I'm no longer as young as I was, and the doctors tell me that stresses like that do hit harder as we get older.  I woke up early on Sunday morning feeling very uncomfortable, with chest pains and some referred pain in my left arm.  Having survived two heart attacks already, you can imagine that those warning signs were not welcome at all.  It didn't take long before I was on a gurney in the local emergency room, with nurses measuring my vital signs.

Fortunately, I wasn't having a heart attack:  my EKG was normal.  However, my blood pressure was very dangerously high, at seriously life-threatening levels.  That came as a complete surprise.  The ER doctor said it was almost certainly a physical reaction to the noise and stress of the previous 48 hours.  When I shook my head in disbelief, commenting that I didn't feel stressed, he reminded me (rolling his eyes) that I wasn't 21 any more, and that as one gets older, one's body reacts to stress a lot more than it used to - and it won't necessarily warn us about it with obvious symptoms.  I can see now why they call high blood pressure the "silent killer"!

I was discharged after a few hours with instructions to monitor my blood pressure several times a day, and to return to the ER at once if it spiked at all.  I haven't previously bothered to check my blood pressure routinely, but after this episode, you can bet I'm going to be doing so, probably more than once per day!  I ordered a blood pressure monitor off Amazon, one recommended by the doctor.  It's very simple to use, and gives me peace of mind.  I'll also be checking my post-heart-attack prescriptions with my health care provider, to see whether I need an increased dose of any of them, or a new medication to add to the mix.

The purpose of telling you all this isn't to make you go "Ooh!  Aah!" at my medical misadventures, but in the hope that some of you will consider checking your own blood pressure more regularly.  If you're older, or a heart attack survivor, or in poor health due to other conditions (all of which apply to me), I've just learned the hard way that it's very worthwhile to invest in your own blood pressure monitor and use it regularly.  (One word of warning:  it seems that small wrist-size blood pressure monitors are notorious for not giving very accurate results, irrespective of the model.  I had one for some years as a result of my earlier heart problems, but found that when comparing its readings to those obtained by my health care provider, the former were very inaccurate;  so I stopped using it.  My new blood pressure monitor, which reads from upper arm or forearm, is much more accurate.)

Fortunately, my blood pressure has been within normal limits (for me, anyway) for the past several days.  Long may it remain so!

Peter

Adventures with power stations

 

Last week I wrote about so-called "power stations", portable battery banks (for want of a better word) that can supply electricity for hours, some of them for days, in the event of a power outage.  They're very useful tools, and if you have any reliance on critical electrical equipment (particularly medical, such as CPAP machines or oxygen generators), IMHO they fall under the heading of essential emergency gear.  If you missed that earlier article, I suggest you click over there and read it before continuing with this one.

I've just had to replace an older Jackery 440 power station.  I bought it about four years ago, and it's given good service until now.  Unfortunately, when I needed a new charger, I learned that the 440 went out of production soon after I got it, and Jackery no longer supplies parts for it.  Sadly, there are no third-party chargers available with the correct plug to fit my unit (despite a couple of them claiming the contrary - I checked).  That means, for want of a simple wall charger, my $500-plus power station is now effectively unusable.  I'm very annoyed about that, because I think it's incumbent upon the makers of relatively costly equipment to retain a supply of essential spares.  If they don't, they're demonstrating a lack of care towards their customers that's almost contempt.  "Sure, you spent your money with us - but that's your problem!"  After telling me that no replacement charger was available, their customer service representative even suggested that I take advantage of next week's Black Friday sales to buy a more modern version from them.  No discount was offered, and no trade-in for my now useless earlier model, either or both of which would seem to me to be basic customer courtesy in this situation.  Needless to say, I bought a non-Jackery product as a replacement, and Jackery is now on my "unreliable supplier" list - a pity, as they're one of the larger manufacturers of such equipment and their products are well reviewed.  Still . . . if that's how they treat their customers, I won't be one of them in future.  As always, caveat emptor.

While shopping around for the replacement unit (I ended up buying an Ecoflow River 2 Max model, as discussed last week), I learned a lot about the current state of the market.  For a start, prices have come down a lot if you shop around (I paid less than half as much for the Ecoflow as I did for the roughly-equivalent-capacity Jackery four years ago).  Also, battery technology has improved considerably, making modern units more efficient and faster-charging (for example, my new Ecoflow charges to full in about one hour, compared to 6-7 hours for the older Jackery).  The software that controls them has also improved, allowing one to specify a slower charging rate (which generates less heat and wear on the battery and cooling fan) and even set the level to which they will charge, very useful for long-term storage when one doesn't plan to use them unless in emergency.  (It's not good to store lithium batteries at full charge, again because of wear considerations.  For example, Ecoflow recommends charging its units to not more than 85% for long-term storage.  Modern systems have made it much easier to avoid such pitfalls.)

The only danger is that, if one specifies a lower charging rate and/or a less-than-full level of charge, in an emergency one might not have access to Internet or wi-fi connections to reset the unit to its base configuration.  Therefore, I made sure to adjust the Ecoflow's parameters back to full power and charge rate as soon as I'd charged it for the first time.  That way, if the power goes out tomorrow, it'll still operate at its maximum performance.  That's a basic precaution that a lot of people don't think about:  but if something goes badly wrong, you don't want to be sitting with a power station that's unnecessarily slow to charge and/or won't hold a full charge.  Not a good idea!  (Another useful precaution is to, every three months or so, discharge the unit under load, then recharge to the recommended level before putting it back into storage.  That way, you're sure it works, and won't be caught short in an emergency.  Some manufacturers even void their warranty if such regular discharge/recharge cycles are not followed - and yes, they'll know, because their units track and record such information, either internally or over the Internet.)

I was surprised to learn how many people spend thousands of dollars buying high-end, high-capacity power stations that allow them to operate major domestic appliances (stove, refrigerator, HVAC systems, etc.) in an emergency.  That's great if you have a large disposable income, but such power systems are very expensive.  One can buy a nice dual-fuel generator and enough fuel for a month (propane, gasoline, whatever) and still save money compared to such high-end systems.  Our approach is to say that, in emergency, we'll heat or cool no more than one or two rooms, and cook over a propane camping stove or a fire, and use a small generator to run our refrigerator and freezer every few hours to keep the food in them cold.  We can keep going like that for several weeks if we have to, and won't have to spend five figures or more on a high-end power station and expanded battery capacity to run the whole house.  Our small power stations will allow us to run a CPAP machine;  recharge cellphones, handheld radios, laptop computers and flashlights;  and generally take care of the basics at an affordable cost.  I have two units, so while one's in use, the other can be recharging off a generator or small portable solar panel - and if one breaks, the other's still there.  That gives me peace of mind.

Also, one can duplicate the performance of a lower-end power station for a lot less money, if that's a factor.  As reader Hightecrebel noted last week:

Anyone even slightly handy can make a battery box that's 75-95% as capable for half the cost of the power stations, but in a slightly larger form factor that is fine for at home. There are videos on Odyssey, Rumble, & YouTube showing how to do it with anything from a plastic ammo can to a rolling toolbox. One guy has a whole Rigid toolbox set with batteries in the bottom rolling box w/ 12v outlets and charger connection, with additional boxes for an inverter or expansion batteries.

I'm planning to build one into a Hart Stack set personally (I like the colors), and it's looking like for around $700 I'll have 2.5KWH of battery (200AH @ 12V), and a 2KW pure sine wave inverter. Took a little time to get the parts for it, catching things on sale and such. Compared to an Ecoflow Delta 2 Max for $1600 with 2KW of power and a 3KW inverter. And mine'll have wheels and an extendable handle for ease of movement.

I agree, you can make your own battery system that way, albeit with the disadvantages that it'll be a lot bigger and heavier than a typical power station (making it less portable if you have to take it with you) and its lead-acid batteries will take longer to recharge.  However, the cost savings may make up for that.  YMMV.  One can also use third-party solar panels to set up a recharging system for your power station, rather than use the panels offered by its vendor;  but again, they'll be bigger and heavier than a portable solar panel, and less easy to take along if you have to "get out of Dodge".  You pays your money, and you takes your choice.  (I wish there were a common standard for solar panels, and connectors, and charge rates, among the manufacturers of such things!  It's very frustrating to try to figure out which panels and plugs will fit which devices, and whether or not the charge rates and capacities are compatible.  The simplest solution is to go with a solar panel setup from the power station manufacturer, but they're often relatively expensive compared to third-party systems.)

Finally, it's worth noting that many manufacturers of such devices are offering Black Friday discount deals on their products.  Some of the discounts aren't as good as those offered by retailers (as I noted about my Ecoflow unit last week), but if you shop around, you may be able to save hundreds or even thousands of dollars off the list prices, which is not to be sneezed at.  (If you want to compare units between manufacturers, there are lots of comparisons on YouTube and elsewhere - just do a search on the name[s] of the unit[s] in which you're interested, and include the word "reviews", and you'll find them.  Here are a few to get you started.)

Peter

A blast from the advertising past

 

I know I posted this some years ago, but it still makes me laugh.  Here's the famous EDS "cat herding" commercial.

Peter

Use drugs, run out of fuel - say what???

 

I hadn't expected "fuel crime" to become a thing in the illegal drugs industry, but here you go.

Colombia has a severe problem, cocaine. The South American country is the world’s largest producer of the narcotic, and it continues setting record highs for the cultivation of coca, the drug’s key raw ingredient, and cocaine production. The United Nations Office on Drugs and Crime (UNODC) reported for 2022 (Spanish) that the amount of land cultivated with coca soared 13% year over year to 230,000 hectares. This, the agency believes, possessed the potential to produce a record 1,738 metric tons of cocaine, yet another all-time high.

. . .

It is estimated that around 75 gallons, or 284 liters, of gasoline, is required to treat the approximately 440 pounds of coca leaves required to produce one kilogram of cocaine hydrochloride ... which means 130 million gallons, or 492 million liters, of gasoline was consumed during 2022 to produce 1,738 metric tons of cocaine. This tremendous amount of gasoline combined with soaring oil prices ... makes it extremely costly for Colombia’s illegal armed groups, which control the Andean country’s cocaine trade, to acquire the required volume of gasoline.

For those reasons, there are considerable incentives for criminal bands to steal oil from Colombia’s extensive network of petroleum pipelines, which are amplified by strict government controls on the sale of large volumes of gasoline.

. . .

Colombia’s Caño Limon and Transandino, known by their Spanish initials OTA, pipelines are the main targets for petroleum theft. Various criminal bands and illegal armed groups tap the pipelines with primitive valves to extract the oil flowing through them, often leaving pools of environmentally damaging petroleum behind ... Official records indicate the Caño Limon pipeline has suffered 1,600 attacks since commencing operation in 1986, most of which were bombings, but also includes the application of illicit valves to steal petroleum.

There's more at the link.

I've been aware of thefts of petroleum products from pipelines for decades.  In Africa, it's a growth business.  Hardly a month goes by without reports of large quantities of oil being stolen from sabotaged pipelines, many times sparking a conflagration that kills countless people trying to get free fuel.  Nigeria is probably the worst hotspot (you should pardon the expression) on the continent for that.  However, those crimes target the fuel itself, for its own value.  The criminals don't regard fuel as just another component needed for a much more lucrative and deadly crime.

This leads to another thought.  Could fuel rationing, either by default through short supply or by government edict, help reduce the amount of drugs on the market?  I'm not advocating that, you understand - just thinking things through.  There are wheels within wheels on this issue . . .

Peter

Remember what I said about cities?

 

If you don't, consider these headlines from the past 24 hours:

Cars block FedEx semi while dozens pillage packages, leave boxes scattered everywhere

A FedEx tractor-trailer was blocked by several cars in a Memphis, Tennessee, intersection before dozens of people pillaged the back of the truck for packages, leaving boxes discarded all over the road during the brazen weekend theft.

Video from the scene shows multiple people running through parked cars in the road toward the FedEx truck as the driver attempts to escape the ravagers who are carrying their loot.

Helpless Amazon driver watches as group of looters raid her truck

Video captured from a nearby apartment shows the thieves jumping out of the front of the van and running to the back where the door is already opened, before hopping back in and filling their arms with packages.

The camera then turned to the driver, who was in the middle of her delivery route, abruptly stopped walking and watched as her truck was ransacked.

This sort of thing has become commonplace in parts of many large US cities.  It's not limited to trucks, either:  in some places, even trains are being looted almost at will.

Our cities are becoming worse and worse by the day.  They contain sizeable underclasses of residents who care nothing for honesty or the rule of law, and who don't fear the police or the justice system at all.  They know they can get away with almost anything, even murder, and therefore they do as they please.  Left-wing progressive District Attorneys no longer bother to enforce many laws, and when they do it's in a slap-on-the-wrist fashion rather than seeking genuinely deterrent punishment - a clear signal to the lawless that there are no limits restraining them.

I said a while back:

I sometimes get the feeling I'm talking to a brick wall when I keep warning about the dangers of living in "big blue" cities, because few people appear to take my warnings seriously.  Nevertheless, I'll keep providing evidence, in the hope that at least some of my readers may see the light in time, and get the hell out of them before it's too late.

. . .

Folks, if you can't read the writing on the wall by this point, I don't know how to reach you.  Too many people are judging the cities they live in by the conditions around their suburban homes, where everything looks just peachy and hunky-dory.  However, that ignores the festering plague spots of low-income, low-education, overcrowded, urban-decay, crime-infested areas where the people live largely on government benefits and have little to no hope of ever breaking free from that cycle of dependency.  They're part of the same cities as those suburbs.  When the stresses in those areas stretch too tight, or the benefits they depend on are no longer available (or are reduced in value thanks to inflation and rising prices), they display their displeasure by becoming more violent and anti-social.

. . .

Friends, our cities have fallen so far that I seriously doubt they can be rescued.  They'll have to hit rock bottom, and realize it, and take steps to cut away the deadwood that's crippling them, before they can rise again.  If you stay, hoping for the best, I fear greatly that you may end up as part of the deadwood that's cut away.

I hope I'm wrong . . . but I doubt it.  The evidence of what's coming is overwhelming.  It won't happen overnight, or even in a year or two, but the overall trend is unmistakeable, and probably irreversible.

Leave our "big blue" cities while you still can, even if it means taking a financial loss in the process.  Some things - your family, your and their lives, your security - are worth more than money.

There's more at the link.

Welcome to Robert A. Heinlein's "crazy years".  If you want to avoid them as far as possible, don't be where they're in full swing.  Get out of our big cities.  Now.

Peter

Flooding and water damage update

 

As most readers will know, our home suffered water damage last Thursday night when our dishwasher decided to fill itself . . . and keep on filling itself, all night long.  Our insurance company was on the ball, and had ServiceMaster here within an hour of our filing a claim.  Yesterday they took out the last of their big drying-out machines and declared our home ready for repair and rectification.  Last night was wonderfully quiet, with no ventilation fans and dehumidifiers roaring!

Yesterday I visited three local flooring dealers, and arranged for each of them to come out here during the rest of this week, measure our home, and quote for replacing damaged flooring.  Our insurance policy will replace/repair to the same standards as before the damage, but not for any enhancements or improvements over that standard.  However, our laminate flooring (laid when we bought our house) was laid end-to-end down the length of the building, with no interruptions or joints.  That means, apparently, that to get that same quality of installation, we have to replace it in the same way, laid in one continuous pattern from one side of the house to the other, even though most of the laminate was not water-damaged.  The color or pattern of eight-year-old laminate can't be exactly matched, so it all has to be replaced.  That's likely to be very expensive!  Flooring's gone up a lot in price over the past eight years.  We'll see what the numbers look like.

The kitchen is another problem.  The water got underneath the ceramic tile floor, to the point where when one walked on it, water gushed up from the joints between the tiles, and washed out some of the grout.  Some of the tiles also cracked through people walking on them in their newly unsupported condition.  That means they'll have to be replaced, but again, they're an older pattern of tile that can't be matched out of modern stocks, so it'll have to be a full replacement.  That means taking up the old tile, scraping the grout and glue off the concrete slab, leveling the surface, then re-laying fresh tile.  Again, that's going to get expensive.  We'll see what the insurance company has to say.

When all that's been done, I still have to find a general contractor to patch the holes in the drywall made by ServiceMaster to remove wet insulation, replace baseboard and skirting-board removed to let the walls dry, and repaint the repaired walls.  I haven't even started to look for that yet.  I'll worry about the flooring first, and the rest later.  I can only do so much at once.

Today we have the first of the flooring companies coming in to measure for a quotation, and also an installer bringing our new dishwasher.  We went with a Bosch model, recommended by several readers in earlier comments and attracting more-than-usually-positive customer reviews on Web sites.  It has a lot more features than our old, relatively simple dishwasher, so I can see we have a learning curve ahead of us as we figure out how to do what, with which, to whatever.  It was expensive, but that sort of unexpected cost is precisely why we (and, I hope, you) have an emergency reserve fund.  It gives us peace of mind to know that in most situations like this, we can usually cope with the bills without panicking.  We'll rebuild the emergency fund over the next few months.

Blogging may be lighter than usual today as I juggle installers, measurers and other visitors.

Peter

The next step in her journey

 

Ayaan Hirsi Ali, the well-known former Muslim activist against Islamic fundamentalism, became a self-professed atheist after learning (the hard way) what that religion's extremists taught and wanted for the world.  However, after many years as an atheist, she's converted to Christianity.

So, what changed? Why do I call myself a Christian now?

Part of the answer is global. Western civilisation is under threat from three different but related forces: the resurgence of great-power authoritarianism and expansionism in the forms of the Chinese Communist Party and Vladimir Putin’s Russia; the rise of global Islamism, which threatens to mobilise a vast population against the West; and the viral spread of woke ideology, which is eating into the moral fibre of the next generation ... we can’t fight off these formidable forces unless we can answer the question: what is it that unites us? The response that “God is dead!” seems insufficient. So, too, does the attempt to find solace in “the rules-based liberal international order”. The only credible answer, I believe, lies in our desire to uphold the legacy of the Judeo-Christian tradition.

That legacy consists of an elaborate set of ideas and institutions designed to safeguard human life, freedom and dignity — from the nation state and the rule of law to the institutions of science, health and learning. As Tom Holland has shown in his marvellous book Dominion, all sorts of apparently secular freedoms — of the market, of conscience and of the press — find their roots in Christianity.

And so I have come to realise that Russell and my atheist friends failed to see the wood for the trees. The wood is the civilisation built on the Judeo-Christian tradition; it is the story of the West, warts and all.

. . .

To me ... freedom of conscience and speech is perhaps the greatest benefit of Western civilisation. It does not come naturally to man. It is the product of centuries of debate within Jewish and Christian communities. It was these debates that advanced science and reason, diminished cruelty, suppressed superstitions, and built institutions to order and protect life, while guaranteeing freedom to as many people as possible. Unlike Islam, Christianity outgrew its dogmatic stage. It became increasingly clear that Christ’s teaching implied not only a circumscribed role for religion as something separate from politics. It also implied compassion for the sinner and humility for the believer.

Yet I would not be truthful if I attributed my embrace of Christianity solely to the realisation that atheism is too weak and divisive a doctrine to fortify us against our menacing foes. I have also turned to Christianity because I ultimately found life without any spiritual solace unendurable — indeed very nearly self-destructive. Atheism failed to answer a simple question: what is the meaning and purpose of life?

Russell and other activist atheists believed that with the rejection of God we would enter an age of reason and intelligent humanism. But the “God hole” — the void left by the retreat of the church — has merely been filled by a jumble of irrational quasi-religious dogma. The result is a world where modern cults prey on the dislocated masses, offering them spurious reasons for being and action — mostly by engaging in virtue-signalling theatre on behalf of a victimised minority or our supposedly doomed planet. The line often attributed to G.K. Chesterton has turned into a prophecy: “When men choose not to believe in God, they do not thereafter believe in nothing, they then become capable of believing in anything.”

. . .

The lesson I learned from my years with the Muslim Brotherhood was the power of a unifying story, embedded in the foundational texts of Islam, to attract, engage and mobilise the Muslim masses. Unless we offer something as meaningful, I fear the erosion of our civilisation will continue. And fortunately, there is no need to look for some new-age concoction of medication and mindfulness. Christianity has it all.

That is why I no longer consider myself a Muslim apostate, but a lapsed atheist. Of course, I still have a great deal to learn about Christianity. I discover a little more at church each Sunday. But I have recognised, in my own long journey through a wilderness of fear and self-doubt, that there is a better way to manage the challenges of existence than either Islam or unbelief had to offer.

There's more at the link.

This is wonderful news for all Christian believers, of course.  Ms. Ali has been a source for and a center of rational debate and discussion about the meaning of life, the dangers of extremism, and the need for intellectual honesty in confronting the problems around us.  For a deep thinker like that to analyze Christianity and realize that it holds the promise of fulfilling all those things, and explaining them in a rational sense as well as by faith, is a testimony to the abiding, enduring truth of Jesus Christ.  I thank God for this news, and for my new sister in Christ.

It's also a challenge to those of us who take our faith for granted, or never think about why we believe what we profess.  We should all be challenging ourselves.  If we claim to be Christian, why do we do so?  On what grounds?  How do we pattern our lives according to God's revelation in Christ?  Ms. Ali has had to do all of that during her conversion.  We would do well to follow her example, and examine our own faith anew.  We should not believe because that's what our parents taught us, or because that's what's socially acceptable.  We should believe because we really do believe, on the basis of evidence and personal faith.

Kudos to Ms. Ali for giving us renewed grounds for that self-examination.

Peter

Vehicle manufacturers and your privacy (what privacy?)

 

In a world where nobody seems to care about privacy any more, I suppose it's not surprising that a case about what I'd call an egregious intrusion into personal privacy has been thrown out.

A federal judge on Tuesday refused to bring back a class action lawsuit alleging four auto manufacturers had violated Washington state’s privacy laws by using vehicles’ on-board infotainment systems to record and intercept customers’ private text messages and mobile phone call logs ... the appellate judge ruled Tuesday that the interception and recording of mobile phone activity did not meet the Washington Privacy Act’s standard that a plaintiff must prove that “his or her business, his or her person, or his or her reputation” has been threatened.

In an example of the issues at stake, plaintiffs in one of the five cases filed suit against Honda in 2021, arguing that beginning in at least 2014 infotainment systems in the company’s vehicles began downloading and storing a copy of all text messages on smartphones when they were connected to the system.

An Annapolis, Maryland-based company, Berla Corporation, provides the technology to some car manufacturers but does not offer it to the general public, the lawsuit said. Once messages are downloaded, Berla’s software makes it impossible for vehicle owners to access their communications and call logs but does provide law enforcement with access, the lawsuit said.

There's more at the link.

I've warned about this before, but nothing ever seems to be done to control it, and it keeps getting worse.  Once you link your smartphone to Apple CarPlay or Android Auto or a similar app in your vehicle, your entire cellphone usage is open to scrutiny, downloading and analysis, whether you like it or not.  What's more, it's highly likely to be aggregated and sold to companies who want to use that data for targeted advertising.  Even the dealer who services your vehicle can download your cellphone data, if he has the right software - and a surprising number of them do.

Even worse, that happens when you rent a car as well.  If you link your phone to the rental vehicle, the rental company now has that access as well, as does anyone else who rents the same vehicle later and knows how to access the activity logs of previous renters.

That's why I never, ever link my cellphone to a vehicle's internal systems, no matter how convenient the latter may be.  A lot of us old farts value our privacy, and take what steps we can to safeguard it . . . although in this day and age, that's probably more comforting than effective.

Peter

For the martial artists among us (with tongue firmly in cheek)

 

The host of the Shadiversity channel on YouTube gives us the lowdown on nunchaku.

He has a lot more to say about nunchaku in a series of videos.  Click over there to enjoy them all.  His entire channel is worth a look, if you like your weapons lore with a heavy side of snark and satire, as is his Shadlands channel on how to build your own medieval castle. 

Peter

A grim record of savagery and terrorism

 

Amid all the protests against Israel for its punitive action in Gaza, it's worth remembering why that action is taking place.  The Judean is publishing a series of articles with videos of what happened in Israel on October 7, showing in graphic detail what Hamas terrorists perpetrated on that day.

WARNING:  THIS SERIES IS BRUTAL, BLOODY AND GRAPHIC IN THE EXTREME.

IT'S NOT FOR THE FAINT OF HEART.

YOU SHOULD NOT WATCH IT IF YOU'RE SQUEAMISH.

The series page runs from the latest video to the earliest, so if you want to watch them in sequence, scroll down to the earliest entry and watch them from that starting point.

If you have any doubts about why Israel is doing what it's doing in Gaza, these videos will remove all doubt from your mind.  They also serve as a counterweight to the anti-Israeli propaganda that's being blasted from so many "woke" sources.  For that reason, I think it's worth clicking over to The Judean and watching the series . . . if you can stomach it.  I saw the same thing in Africa, many times over many years;  but even so, parts of the videos made me feel sick.  Be warned.

Peter

The "transgender empire"

 

I'm obliged to reader M. L. S. for sending me the link to a speech by Christopher Rufo at Hillsdale College in September this year.  We've met Mr. Rufo in these pages several times before.  He's a meticulous investigator and authoritative journalist, who isn't afraid to tackle the real issues of the day and expose them.  In his speech, he did just that for the rise of transgenderism and its social acceptance.  Here are a few excerpts.

The sudden and pervasive rise of this movement provokes two questions: where did it come from, and how has it proved so successful? The story goes deeper than most Americans know.

In the late 1980s, a group of academics, including Judith Butler, Gayle Rubin, Sandy Stone, and Susan Stryker, established the disciplines of “queer theory” and “transgender studies.” These academics believed gender to be a “social construct” used to oppress racial and sexual minorities, and they denounced the traditional categories of man and woman as a false binary that was conceived to support the system of “heteronormativity”—i.e., the white, male, heterosexual power structure. This system, they argued, had to be ruthlessly deconstructed. And the best way to achieve this, they argued further, was to promote transgenderism. If men can become women, and women men, they believed, the natural structure of Creation could be toppled.

. . .

Some trans activists even view their movement as the future of Marxism. In a collection of essays titled Transgender Marxism, activist writer Rosa Lee argues that trans people can serve as the new vanguard of the proletariat, promising to abolish heteronormativity in the same way that orthodox Marxism promised to abolish capitalism ... This is the great project of the transgender movement: to abolish the distinctions of man and woman, to transcend the limitations established by God and nature, and to connect the personal struggle of trans individuals to the political struggle to transform society in a radical way.

. . .

According to survey data, up to 80 percent of trans individuals suffer from serious psychopathologies and one-quarter of black trans youth attempt suicide each year. “Gender-affirming care” largely fails to solve these problems, yet the doctors use these failures to justify even more extreme interventions up to the final one: genital reconstruction.

. . .

A less common but more symbolically apt surgery ... is known as “nullification,” in which a smooth, continuous skin covering from the abdomen to the groin is created following a castration or vaginectomy. In other words, the genitalia are replaced by nothing. Nullification surgery is the perfect symbol for the ideology behind the trans movement: the pursuit of the Latin nullum, meaning “nothing”; or the related nihil, the root of the English word “nihilism.” Trans ideology is animated by a profound nihilism that denies human nature and enables barbarism in the name of progress.

There's much more at the link.  Highly recommended reading.

Mr. Rufo hit another one out of the park in his speech, IMHO.  I think it's essential reading if we're to understand what drives the transgender movement in society today.

Peter

Memes that made me laugh 185

 

Gathered from around the Internet over the past week.  Click any image for a larger view.

Sunday morning music

 

Following Friday's and Saturday's adventures with domestic flooding, and faced with a few days yet of drying out the house before repairs can begin, what else can I do but "celebrate" with some water music?  Handel's three suites of Water Music, to be precise, here gathered together in a single album from the Consort of London conducted by Robert Haydon Clark.  The movements, and the start time of each of them on the video below, are:

0:00 "Water" Suite No.1 in F Major, HMV 348: I. Overture
5:37 "Water" Suite No.1 in F Major, HMV 348: II. Andante e staccato
7:20 "Water" Suite No.1 in F Major, HMV 348: III. Allegro
14:34 "Water" Suite No.1 in F Major, HMV 348: IV. Presto
18:31 "Water" Suite No.1 in F Major, HMV 348: V. Air
21:30 "Water" Suite No.1 in F Major, HMV 348: VI. Minuet
24:31 "Water" Suite No.1 in F Major, HMV 348: VII. Bourree
26:45 "Water" Suite No.1 in F Major, HMV 348: VIII. Hornpipe
29:17 "Water" Suite No.1 in F Major, HMV 348: IX. Andante
32:03 "Water" Suite No.2 in D Major, HMV 349: I. Overture
36:29 "Water" Suite No.2 in D Major, HMV 349: II. Alla hornpipe
41:06 "Water" Suite No.2 in D Major, HMV 349: III. Minuet
43:30 "Water" Suite No.2 in D Major, HMV 349: IV. Presto
46:03 "Water" Suite No.2 in D Major, HMV 349: V. Minuet
47:05 "Water" Suite No.2 in D Major, HMV 349: VI. Bourre
49:13 "Water" Suite No.2 in D Major, HMV 349: VII. Country Dance
50:54 "Water" Suite No.3 in G Major, HMV 350: I. Allegro
53:05 "Water" Suite No.3 in G Major, HMV 350: II. Alla hornpipe
57:27 "Water" Suite No.3 in G Major, HMV 350: III. Minuet
59:52 "Water" Suite No.3 in G Major, HMV 350: IV. Lentement
1:01:02 "Water" Suite No.3 in G Major, HMV 350: V. Air

Sadly, I don't think I can play that to Servicemaster's technicians as they complete the drying-out process in our home.  They wouldn't be able to hear it over the noise of their fans and dehumidifiers!

Peter

Saturday Snippets (of thought, this time)

 

If you stopped by yesterday, you'll know that we had a plumbing emergency on Thursday evening.  Thankfully, our insurer (USAA) was on the ball, and authorized an immediate visit by Servicemaster.  Their technicians were here within an hour of our lodging our claim, and stayed all day, measuring water contamination, removing baseboards, drilling holes in drywall and cutting away certain parts of it, getting rid of wet insulation, and preparing the house for dehumidifying.  Their machines are roaring away right now, and will be for a few days yet, drying everything and making sure no mold or other problems will remain.  (I must admit, I had no idea how much work is involved in drying out after a leak like this.  In my country of origin, South Africa, most houses are brick-built with plastered walls.  There are very few framed houses with drywall, like most homes in the USA.  In the former water can't get inside the walls, and cleanup mostly involves drying things, replastering if necessary [it's usually not], and repainting.  Simpler all round.)

After everything's dry, it'll be at least a couple of weeks worth of remediation.  The techs ripped up a couple of hundred square feet of laminate flooring, and part of the tiled floor in the kitchen will need repair and/or replacement;  and there's new drywall to fix the parts taken out, plus patching and repainting.  I'm grateful our insurance policy is a good one;  without it, we'd be stuck with tens of thousands of dollars in remediation and repair costs.  As it is, we pay our deductible of $1,000 (which our emergency reserve fund will cover - yet more proof that taking the time and trouble to build up such a reserve is worthwhile), and the rest is not our problem.  USAA's premiums may be higher than some of their rivals', but dealing with them has always been straightforward on the few occasions we've had to make a claim, and in our experience they're very quick to respond.  Peace of mind is worth the cost, IMHO!

Insurance doesn't cover the cost of repairing or replacing our dishwasher, so we'll be looking at options over the next few days.  I'm sure we can repair the one we've got, but it's a very basic unit that came with the house.  It looks to be 15-20 years old, and its internal trays are showing the passage of time - some rust, a few missing posts and brackets, and so on.  We'll look at new and used alternatives, and see what's available in our area.  I know new machines are hobbled by the never-to-be-sufficiently-damned EPA regulations, but I understand there are a few makes and models that get around them to be pretty efficient (and we can always add boosters to the detergent to make them more so).  If any readers have recommendations for current-model dishwashers, please let us know in Comments and provide a link if possible.  If we learn anything interesting during our search, I'll put up a blog article about it.

Our two cats are NOT. HAPPY.  Their nice, peaceful domestic world has been trampled all over by strangers, parts of their floor first got wet and then went away (noisily), mommy and daddy have been so distracted that they haven't given them their usual care and attention, and they don't know what's going on.  They want it all to STOP. RIGHT. NOW.  One can't blame them, of course, but they're just going to have to put up with it for a few weeks.  (One problem is going to be to stop Ashbutt, who was described by Bob of the FarmFamily as a "paws-on helping cat" when he gave him to us, from trying to get into all the work going on.  He's intensely curious, and wants to fiddle with everything.  Not a good idea when power tools, glue and paint are involved!)

You'll understand that with all that going on, I didn't have time to prepare my regular Saturday Snippet post.  Please amuse yourselves with the bloggers listed in my sidebar.  I'll try to have a Sunday Morning Music post as scheduled tomorrow.  (Hmmm . . . water music, perhaps?  Something about drying out?  I don't know if there are songs about plumbing, drywall and laminate flooring, but I'll check!)

More later.

Peter

Minor domestic crisis this morning

 

Woke up to a very wet (sodden!) kitchen floor, and an overflowing dishwasher.  I don't think it's a blocked drain, or something simple like that, because when emptied, the dishwasher keeps filling up again.  It'll be a plumber day, I'm afraid, and possibly a replacement dishwasher.

That being the case, and working around mopping, pumping, buckets and two curious cats who Want. To. Help., I suspect I won't have much time for blogging today.  Please amuse yourselves with the bloggers in the sidebar.  They write good, too!

Peter

EDITED TO ADD:  09h50 - Plumber has been and gone.  Leak stopped.  Now for insurance assessment of damage, and getting hold of an appliance service company to fix/replace the dishwasher.  So far, so good.

Dueling entitlements

 

Instead of dueling banjos, we have - in Chicago this week - dueling entitlements.

There was chaos at City Hall on Tuesday as protesters took over a meeting about Chicago's status as a sanctuary city ... The mostly African-American crowd jammed the City Council gallery, with hundreds more downstairs on the first floor held back by officers with bicycles. They're angry the city is spending tens of millions of dollars to shelter migrants, money they say should be going to help Chicagoans in poor neighborhoods.

. . .

Sparking the crowd's anger were efforts by Mayor Brandon Johnson's former floor leader, 35th Ward Alderman Carlos Ramirez-Rosa, to derail a special meeting last week held to discuss the sanctuary city referendum. Ramirez-Rosa tried to prevent a quorum, at one point physically blocking veteran Alderwoman Emma Mitts from entering the chamber.

Today's protesters responded by creating their own chaos, refusing to leave the council chamber until the meeting was eventually suspended.

"In all my years, I haven't seen anything like this," said 15th Ward Alderman Raymond Lopez. "But I've also never seen such a concerted effort to ignore the will of the people."

There's more at the link.

In so many words:  "Iffen there's free money to give, we wuz here fust!  Gimme!  Don't give none to them furriners!"

I bet none of the proudly self-proclaimed "sanctuary cities" saw that coming . . . although I can't imagine why.  Once people get used to being subsidized by the government, they'll naturally object to "their" subsidies being spent on someone else.  Unfortunately, with the millions upon millions of illegals being imported by the Biden administration, the problem's only going to get worse, and the welfare and entitlement budgets will spiral more and more into the red.

Fifty shades of Cloward-Piven!  Pass the popcorn . . .

Peter

It may be impractical around here, but I want one!

 

This report made me smile.

What you see is what you get: A $995 electric Honda scooter that can go 12 miles on one charge, hit 15 mph in seven seconds, and fold into a 41-pound suitcase designed for your average trunk.

Weighing only 41 pounds, the Motocompacto is lightweight enough for almost anyone to carry it. It folds into a neat little rectangle with a sturdy Honda-branded carrying strap and a few grab points, making it easy to maneuver and package in and out of trunks and hatchbacks. It’s smaller than most electric scooters and motorcycles when folded, meaning it can fit in more places. It measures just 29.2 inches long, 3.7 inches deep, and 21.1 inches high when folded up.

All said and done, a seasoned Motocompacto veteran can fold and unfold the bike in about 30 seconds in seven steps. When it’s unfolded, it has a deep storage area where the handlebars normally stow, which has enough space for a college textbook or a 12-pack depending on your college lifestyle ... Like a true Honda, it is also front-wheel drive. There are no physical brakes for the front wheel, using just motor braking to slow the front wheel while using a drum brake for the rear ... it has no form of suspension and uses solid rubber tires.

There's more at the link.

I can see this being a perfectly practical runabout for a city dweller who lives in close proximity to work, shopping, entertainment and the like.  They could even carry it on the train or bus with them.  It wouldn't be much use to those who, like me, live in small town America and have to drive a ways to get to a larger city to do most of our shopping.  Nevertheless, it looks like a lot of fun.  I imagine the engineers who designed it had fun, too.

I won't get one, because it simply won't be practical where we live (or, on our budget, affordable).  Nevertheless, it amused me to see it.  Kudos to Honda for a useful, innovative little project that brings a smile to peoples' faces.

Hmmm . . . I wonder . . . if I towed one of those tiny Honda generators behind it, could I recharge it as I drove, and get close to perpetual motion?

Peter

Your (literally) warm fuzzy happy story of the day

 

This report is a couple of years old, but I only just came across it.  It made me smile.

The pup was soon adopted, and (along with his unicorn) was sent for further training to ease his transition into family life.

Before Sisu and his unicorn left the shelter for their training at the rescue ranch, the pair made an important stop.

"We took him back to the Dollar General so he could see the employees there," explains Joe Newburn, a supervisor at Duplin County Animal Services.

. . .

"He actually had to go through the whole store to get to that unicorn. It was in the Easter section he went to that same unicorn and kept pulling it out, and finally, he had done it so much the store called us," Newburn explains of how Sisu came under the shelter's care.

. . .

After visiting his friends at Dollar General, Sisu moved to Lab Rescue LRCP to receive training to address his behavioral issues. Newburn says Sisu currently has trouble interacting with other dogs, likely due to his time as a stray, so the shelter wanted to provide him with training before sending the pooch to his new home. Lab Rescue LRCP's Sterrie Weaver will work with Sisu over the next few weeks to help the dog feel more comfortable around other canines and ready him for life in a home.

There's more at the link.

That's just too cute!  Kudos to the animal control officer who bought him the unicorn.  I guess we know why she chose her job.

Peter

Walking backwards? For your health???

 

OK, this threw me.  Accuweather reports:

Head into any gym, and you may find someone walking backward on a treadmill or pedaling in reverse on an elliptical machine. While some may be employing reverse motion as part of a physical therapy regimen, others may be doing so to boost their physical fitness and overall health.

“I think it’s amazing to add in some backwards motion to your day,” said Grayson Wickham, a physical therapist at Lux Physical Therapy and Functional Medicine in New York City. “People are sitting way too much today, plus they lack varied movement.”

. . .

Why is backward motion so helpful? “When you’re propelling yourself forward, that’s a hamstring-dominant movement,” said Landry Estes, a certified strength and conditioning specialist in College Station, Texas. “If you’re walking backwards, it’s a role reversal, where your quads are firing and you’re doing knee extensions.”

As a result, you’re working different muscles, which is always beneficial, plus gaining strength. “Strength overcomes a lot of deficiencies,” Estes said.

You’re also moving your body in an atypical way. Most people spend their days living and moving in the sagittal plane (forward and backward motion), and almost exclusively in the forward sagittal plane, Wickham said.

“The body adapts to the positions and movements and postures you do most often,” Wickham said. “That can lead to tight muscles and joints, which leads to joint compensation, which leads to joint wear and tear, then pain and injury. The more we can add in varied movement into our day-to-day activities or in the gym, it’s so much more beneficial for the body.”

There's more at the link.

(Checks article byline and calendar . . . no, the report isn't dated April 1st . . . )

That took me by surprise.  I've never heard of it anywhere else.  Have any of my readers tried walking backwards?  Did it do anything for your fitness and/or health (apart from tripping over everything and everyone you can't see)?  If so, please let us know.

It's not a new idea, of course, as The Goon Show demonstrated back in the 1950's.

As our friend Lawdog would say, <Gigglesnort!>

Peter

Heh

 

Shamelessly stolen from Kim du Toit, because it made me laugh out loud:

When a fly falls into a cup of coffee:

• Italian – throws the cup, breaks it, and walks away in a fit of rage.
• German – tosses out the coffee, carefully washes the cup, sterilizes it and makes a new cup of coffee.
• Frenchman – takes out the fly, and drinks the coffee.
• Chinese – eats the fly and throws away the coffee.
• Russian – drinks the coffee with the fly, since it was extra with no charge.
• Israeli – sells the coffee to the Frenchman, sells the fly to the Chinese, sells the cup to the Italian, drinks a cup of tea, and uses the extra money to invent a device that prevents flies from falling into coffee.
• Hamas Terrorist – blames the Israeli for the fly falling into his coffee, protests the act of aggression to the UN, takes a loan from the European Union to buy a new cup of coffee, uses the money to purchase explosives and then blows up the coffee house where the Italian, the Frenchman, the Chinese, the German and the Russian are all trying to explain to the Israeli that he should give away his cup of coffee to the Palestinians so there will be peace.

Peter

When the world's going mad, try to get the basics right

 

With all the political chaos in this country, and waves of illegal aliens pouring across our southern border, and "woke" policies screwing up our institutions and corporations, and education a joke, and world affairs drowning in blood, a lot of people get to the point of despair.  They ask themselves, "Why bother?  If things are going to hell in a handbasket, I can't stop them, and can't alter their course, so why not just give up and reach for the nearest bottle to drown my sorrows?"

Wrong approach, big-time.

It's hard to accept that we can't affect the "big picture" . . . but we can't.  It's as simple as that.  Nothing I as an individual can do will influence a corporation, or a government, or a nation to do something different.  So, I simply must accept that.  Why beat my head against a brick wall?

On the other hand, there's a lot I can do to affect myself, and my family, and my immediate environment.  If I help get all those things right, then my family and those around us will live happier lives.  If families around us live happier and more successful lives, we'll spread the message by example.  If enough of us do that, we can change a suburb, or a town, or even a region.  We can't affect things from the top down - so why not affect them one life at a time, from the ground up?

That's why I've persevered with this blog for all these years.  I can't persuade everyone, and my voice isn't anywhere near loud enough to be heard above the blather from the bully pulpits of this world.  Nevertheless, I still have a pastor's heart, after all my years doing that for real.  I still have a voice.  If I can use my voice to reach one, or two, or three people every day, I can help them.  If they, in turn, use their voices to reach one, or two, or three other people every day, that spreads.  Sure, it'll never be noticed in the "big picture" - but enough of us doing that can change the "big picture".  If we can do that in the right way, in the right direction, the world can still be a better place because we're in it.  We may not be able to change every place, but we can help to change the place we're in;  and if enough of us do that, our combined influence can reach a surprising distance.

So . . . in the midst of all the sturm und drang going on all around us . . . what can each and every one of us do, to make a practical difference?

• We can start by being thankful to God (or, if we don't believe in God, to whatever benevolent but impersonal universe we may recognize) for the good things we have - people we love and/or care about, food on our tables, roofs over our heads, and so on.  The simple, little things we take for granted - but many in this world lack, and would cheerfully commit murder to have instead of the abject deprivation and poverty in which they live.
• That done as a first step, we can work hard at maintaining and improving what we have.  All the little things that make a house into a home (cleaning, cooking, laundry, sweeping, and so on) have to be done;  but instead of complaining about doing them, let's be grateful we have enough to need to do them.  Many don't.  There's a lot to be said for a home, for all it takes effort and upkeep.
• Let's do what we can to stay healthy.  That's not only avoiding disease, but trying to keep fit, maintain a healthy weight and lifestyle, and so on.  It's not easily done today, and our society isn't exactly structured to help us do so.  There are lots of temptations to avoid, and lots of simple things we can do that aren't pleasant or enjoyable (most of us don't like sweating or sore muscles in order to get and keep fit).  Nevertheless, doing them now often means a healthier, less stressful future.
• I figure many are reading those first three points and tossing their heads in disdain.  "None of that will make a difference to our world!  You're just spouting pious platitudes!"  Well, have you looked around you lately - not just at your own neighborhood, but your town, your city, your state?  How many people don't have those things, and desperately want them?  How many are so drugged-up and disoriented they can no longer think of or remember them?  How many cities have their own Tenderloins (see below)?  If more of us did these simple things, and got them right, and tried to spread their message, how many fewer Tenderloins would there be because of our example?

Let's go further.

• I've written often about preparing for hard times and emergencies.  A lot of people say they can't afford to do that . . . but they can afford to drink, or smoke, or spend an evening at the casino.  What if, every month, they used half the money they devote to those pleasures to instead build up a reserve of essential foods and supplies, so that if hard times come, they can look after themselves instead of joining the hundreds, or thousands, or millions of people who will overwhelm any attempt to help them?  What if we prepare, not just to help ourselves, but to help others who are close to us?  If one family can help two or three others - friends, relatives, whatever - even with the simplest things, and that group of families can help others nearby in the same way, that can drastically reduce the strain on emergency services, and make life more livable for all of us.  That's worth a thought, because we don't live in isolation from each other, as Benjamin Franklin so trenchantly pointed out.
• There's a certain peace of mind in being as ready as we can be for the curve balls life will undoubtedly throw at us.  We may not be able to survive an earthquake, or a hurricane, or a nuclear explosion if World War 3 breaks out:  but a freeze, or a heat wave, or a break in a water main, or a short-term interruption of the supply network?  A kid faces an important examination at school?  A car breaks down?  The water heater dies?  We can cover those things as best we can, and we're willing and ready to do so if need be.  Just knowing that makes us sleep better at night.  It should.
• We can raise our children - and help our friends raise their children - to be as strong, versatile and prepared to face life as they possibly can be.  The legacy we leave future generations can be positive, or negative.  I'd rather focus on the positive, thanks very much.  There's enough negativity all around us already.  Why add to it?  As Jim Davis' Garfield put it:

• Finally, let's never forget to count our blessings.  Most of us have more of them than we can recognize - but we'd sure remember them if we suddenly had to do without them!  Think back to those Tenderloin folks shown above.  How many of them have lost almost everything, to land up in such a situation?  Most were ordinary people like us.  Even as we try to help those we can, let's be very, very grateful we haven't hit the same slippery slope that they did.

Trite?  Possibly . . . but it's the only way I know to deal with life.  Let's get the basics right, one step at a time, one day at a time.  I doubt that any of us have got all of them right, all of the time.  We could all stand to do better.  If enough of us try to do that, I think we may be surprised at what a difference we can make (with God's help, for those who believe as I do) to the world we live in, and those we love, and the people around us.  For those who don't believe as I do . . . try it anyway.  You might be surprised!

Peter

Israel, Gaza and the very real risk of World War III

 

In a recent article, retired US Army Colonel Douglas Macgregor warned that the situation in Gaza could escalate out of national or regional control.

Technologies have altered the conduct of warfare, but more importantly, the societies and states of the Islamic world have also changed. Egypt, Syria, Iraq, Lebanon, Iran, and Turkey are different in character from what they were in the 1970s. None of the states bordering Israel will tolerate population shifts that introduce large numbers of Palestinian Arabs into their societies. Europeans want them even less.

Iran’s national leaders have already called on Islamic and Arab countries to form a united front against Israel, but Iran’s influence in these matters is more limited than most Americans realize. Iranian military power is largely restricted to Iran’s use of proxy militias like Hezbollah and their cooperation with the Pasdaran, Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps. Iran is simply incapable of adding high-end conventional military forces to such a front. Tehran’s government also knows that the use of Iran’s formidable theater ballistic missile force against Israel risks almost certain Israeli nuclear retaliation.

The governments of Egypt, Iraq, Saudi Arabia, the Emirates, and Lebanon are very probably opposed to a general war against Israel, but their enraged populations could easily trap them into doing so. Scenes of celebration across the Middle East showing people waving Palestinian and Hamas flags, dancing, and singing in the streets are being shared on social media.

Turkey’s President Erdogan has offered to mediate between Hamas and Israel, but Erdoğan himself has warned that the war won’t just stop “in a week or two.” However, Turkey, a nation of more than 80 million, is the one actor in the region with the societal cohesion, martial culture, and military power to lead the Sunni Arab states in a confrontation with Israel.

. . .

In Ukraine, Washington underestimated Russian resolve and military power. Washington should not repeat this mistake by underestimating the potential for a regional Muslim alliance that could threaten Israel’s existence. The possibility that Israel could end up like Ukraine should not be discounted.

There's more at the link.

In a more recent interview, the Colonel went into more detail about how the current situation in the Middle East could slide out of control and embroil the world in a new, much wider conflict whose end cannot easily be predicted.  I'd like to say up front that I endorse Col. Macgregor's warnings in this video;  from my reading of geopolitics, based on my own years of experience in the Third World and miscellaneous military meanderings, he's spot on.  Also, a tip o' the hat to Harry S. for sending me the link to this video clip.  Thanks, Harry!

If that doesn't scare you, it should.  I think we're perilously close to this thing exploding in all our faces.

Peter