Tuesday, November 7, 2023

Israel, Gaza and the very real risk of World War III


In a recent article, retired US Army Colonel Douglas Macgregor warned that the situation in Gaza could escalate out of national or regional control.

Technologies have altered the conduct of warfare, but more importantly, the societies and states of the Islamic world have also changed. Egypt, Syria, Iraq, Lebanon, Iran, and Turkey are different in character from what they were in the 1970s. None of the states bordering Israel will tolerate population shifts that introduce large numbers of Palestinian Arabs into their societies. Europeans want them even less.

Iran’s national leaders have already called on Islamic and Arab countries to form a united front against Israel, but Iran’s influence in these matters is more limited than most Americans realize. Iranian military power is largely restricted to Iran’s use of proxy militias like Hezbollah and their cooperation with the Pasdaran, Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps. Iran is simply incapable of adding high-end conventional military forces to such a front. Tehran’s government also knows that the use of Iran’s formidable theater ballistic missile force against Israel risks almost certain Israeli nuclear retaliation.

The governments of Egypt, Iraq, Saudi Arabia, the Emirates, and Lebanon are very probably opposed to a general war against Israel, but their enraged populations could easily trap them into doing so. Scenes of celebration across the Middle East showing people waving Palestinian and Hamas flags, dancing, and singing in the streets are being shared on social media.

Turkey’s President Erdogan has offered to mediate between Hamas and Israel, but Erdoğan himself has warned that the war won’t just stop “in a week or two.” However, Turkey, a nation of more than 80 million, is the one actor in the region with the societal cohesion, martial culture, and military power to lead the Sunni Arab states in a confrontation with Israel.

. . .

In Ukraine, Washington underestimated Russian resolve and military power. Washington should not repeat this mistake by underestimating the potential for a regional Muslim alliance that could threaten Israel’s existence. The possibility that Israel could end up like Ukraine should not be discounted.

There's more at the link.

In a more recent interview, the Colonel went into more detail about how the current situation in the Middle East could slide out of control and embroil the world in a new, much wider conflict whose end cannot easily be predicted.  I'd like to say up front that I endorse Col. Macgregor's warnings in this video;  from my reading of geopolitics, based on my own years of experience in the Third World and miscellaneous military meanderings, he's spot on.  Also, a tip o' the hat to Harry S. for sending me the link to this video clip.  Thanks, Harry!

If that doesn't scare you, it should.  I think we're perilously close to this thing exploding in all our faces.



JustPeachy said...

I'm not sure it matters-- nothing one couldn't deduce from this person's actions, after all.

But I am puzzled by the reference to "video tape".

I mean, I'm a genuine card-carrying geezer and member of the VHS/camcorder generation. Do the kids these days really still refer to video as "tape"?

Bob said...

His comment about the Jews spending great effort over the years gaining control of OUR government in Washinton is spot on. It is precisely why we are where we are today.

Washinton is loaded to the gills with bureaucrats, Senators and Congressmen that are not Americans in reality and are - and always have been - Israel first, no matter the cost to America.

Don't think for a second that this "dual citizenship? insanity we have had to live with has been good for America - it hasn't. Like Roosevelt said, "You are either an American or you are not." The truth of that statement is patently obvious today.

lynn said...

“Oil prices sink 4% on ‘demand destruction’ worries, weak China exports”

Predictions are hard. Especially predictions about the future. “Niels Bohr”.

I still think that crude oil will jump in price significantly during and after the Israel – Iran War.

lynn said...

The 30 year old MBAs in the White House have calculated with their wonderful spreadsheets that the USA can continue to borrow money at any rate for the unending future. After all, you can use a spreadsheet to model group behavior and their groups have promised them that they will fund the USA if they get all of their special projects: fighting global warming, killing coal, killing oil, killing plastics, saving the polar bears, running the middle east, etc, etc, etc.

Mad celt said...

I have been hearing World War 3 as long as I can recall, especially every time two other countries get into a dust up. World Wars tend to start by a very major power going haywire on several tiny, barely significant countries then randomly attacking any greater power it fears.

Larry said...

As opposed to all the time and effort the oil sheikhs have spent gaining control of the US government? Do Israel and the Arabs have shared custody? One week each?

Dan said...

There are a lot of people...most unelected...in positions of power who want WW3. They believe they could survive it and achieve many parts of their agenda, foremost being a massive depopulation of the planet, especially the "evil white people" part.

lynn said...

I had no idea that it was over 1,000 Hamas terrorists that invaded Israel. That just blows me away that many terrorists could sneak into the country. That and there were very few guns in the homes. Israel was not ready for any kind of conflict where people got in. That makes me wonder if they really ready for a war ?

Anonymous said...

Turks have nothing to gain in making war on Israel and plenty to lose. Choice 1) Ally with traditional enemy of 800 years worth of war (Rus). or Choice 2) stay allied with the West.

Make war and surely be expelled from NATO who already itch to dump Turkey just as they refuse to allow them entry to the EU. Fall into the arms of the tarbaby that had gobbled up all of its former northern possessions and would be happy to get the rest. Putin is nothing if not a man with imperial impulses.

Ross said...

Rare is there any comment regarding the origin of this conflict. Islam. They have been calling for the destruction of those not in their circle for over 1500 years. By any means.

They need a reformation or we need a new crusade. This will not end well.

TCK said...

You can't reform an evil cult, you can only destroy it before it hurts yet more innocent people.

Aesop said...

Kindly explain (or link to MacGregor's explanation) how anything going on now is materially different from Israel's status vis-a-vis the frothing Jew-hating jihadis in the region in any degree from May 1948-October 2023.

I'll just wait over here for that illumination.

Erdogan is about a hot minute from getting Kaddafied and/or thrown out of NATO, whichever is easier. And both is certainly on the table.

And Iran is pretty universally despised by the Arabs in the region, which is every other nation around, and their religious and political leadership is slightly less welcome than scorpions in one's underclothes.

Knowing that, Israel's likelihood of mitigating their response until they achieve objectives to their own satisfaction is about nil, and the likelihood of a larger war only slightly higher.

Lebanon still doesn't even exist as a functional country.
Egypt, Jordan, Syria, and the Saudis want nothing to do with another war with Israel, because their planes aren't bulletproof, and their capitols aren't nuke-proof.

They're collectively more likely to welcome the "Palestinians" in from Gaza, and leave them securely locked down in perpetuity inside refugee gulags until they die off, unlamented and unmissed. They might even help the actuarial tables along a great deal, once the world's attention turns to something else in about 15 minutes.

The only people cheering on or simping for HAMAS are on western college campuses, in European refugee quarters, on Capitol Hill, or living in Michigan and Minnesota.

The entire world's GAF Meter about what's happening in Gaza is still barely above "0", when it's not laying in negative territory against the "FAFO" bottom peg.

The only thing we don't have enough of for this conflict currently is popcorn and live play-by-play.

EricW said...

I'm deeply worried that Turdeau is going to invite the Palestinians into Canada. He's in deep doo-doo with his latest carbon tax failures, and needs something to distract the populace. Adding another half million to the welfare rolls will crush the nation.

Anonymous said...

Ross Nov7 7:16pm is correct. And btw Col. MacGregor's remark that Americans are dismissive of other cultures, No. For example "Islam is religion of peace". America has been going with this wrong assessment for almost 25 years now. Islam has Jew hate as mandatory/required thing and all generations raised Muslim had and still have this hate msg deeply embedded in their education, starting with kindergarten.
Like Ayaan Hirsi Ali said many times: Western culture and civilization is superior to Islam, period. But Col MacGregor is correct in saying that woke perversion of the West will spell disaster from within.

Anonymous said...

Israel is its own country, capable of making their own decisions. They will live with those decisions or die by those same decisions. It is insane to allow the status quo to continue with Hamas with all those advanced weapons the General points out Iran has. The arrogance of the US dictating how Israel is to behave after the highest death toll of Jews after the Holocaust is outrageous also. With our politicians being bought by many different foreign countries, the US can always be counted on doing what is best in their interests as opposed to America’s.

Anonymous said...

Last spring the feds announced they plan to bring 1 million plus refugees into canada a year going forward. So yes its very likely turdeau will invite a bunch over.
We've taken in a bunch of ukrainians and that mostly has worked out poorly. Lots of stores in my area complaining they are all thieves who steal anything.