Friday, April 6, 2018

Venezuela in Mexico?


Keep an eye on the forthcoming elections in Mexico.  They may bring to power a politician who some regard as being rather too similar to the late Hugo Chávez of Venezuela.  Reuters reports:

Mexican left-wing presidential candidate Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador has an 18-point lead ahead of the July 1 election, according to a poll published on Monday that showed him with a growing advantage at the start of formal campaigning.

Lopez Obrador, who launched his campaign on Sunday, holds 38 percent of the vote, according to the poll by Parametria, published by Reuters on Monday ahead of wider distribution. That compared to 35 percent in its previous poll.

A Lopez Obrador victory could usher in a Mexican government less accommodating toward the United States, where President Donald Trump has stoked trade tensions with Mexico and aggressively moved to curb immigration.

. . .

Attention has turned to which party will hold sway in the Senate and lower house of Congress, with some believing that Lopez Obrador’s party, the National Regeneration Movement, could win the biggest share in both.

There's more at the link.

Mexico is already in dire straits, economically and in terms of crime and security, with the "cartel wars" still an overwhelming national issue that shows no sign of a solution.  Lopez Obrador has prioritized subsidizing unemployed youth instead of fighting crime - a scheme reminiscent of Venezuela's mobilization of its youth into "Chavistas", the primary supporters of the late President, and now the bulwark for President Maduro.  The notorious "dirty poker" of Mexican election shenanigans may also be a major factor.

Foreign Policy sums up likely developments.

If elected, López Obrador is likely to change Mexican policy towards the United States in at least three areas: energy exploration, security cooperation, and support for democratic norms in the region. On energy, he said he would review existing contracts, and continues to view the opening of Mexico’s oil industry to foreign investment as treasonous. A López Obrador administration could slow down or halt bidding on new oil and gas finds in the Gulf of Mexico and refuse to approve new cross-border natural gas pipelines.

Similarly, he could freeze existing security cooperation with U.S. agencies to fight heroin production in Mexico and capture cartel leaders. “Problems of an economic and social nature cannot be solved with coercive measures,” he wrote last year. “It’s not military assistance, or intelligence work, or deliveries of helicopters and arms, that will solve the problems of insecurity and violence in our country.”

Finally, López Obrador, who has never uttered an unkind word about the Castro brothers, Chávez, or Nicolás Maduro (but named a son after Che Guevara), would be likely to withdraw Mexican diplomats from the mediating role they have played in the region on Venezuela, and refuse to participate in international resolutions concerning Iran, North Korea, or Syria.

What about the personal chemistry between López Obrador and Trump? Shortly after Trump was inaugurated, López Obrador undertook a speaking tour of the United States, during which he repeatedly compared Trump to Hitler. Recently, López Obrador vowed to put Trump “in his place.” What could go wrong?

Again, more at the link.

Of course, if Mexico does slide even further into chaos, we'd be facing a Venezuela-style social meltdown right on our southern border.  A wall probably won't be enough to stop the resulting exodus of economic refugees.

Peter

12 comments:

Ray said...

The US already has 10-20% of Mexicans in the US.

Mexico has always been left and corrupt. NAFTA helped them a huge amount. Oils falling price has hurt them a lot. And there is a Congress.

The job seems to change the President. They come in against the war against the cartels, and soon abandon that policy.

Anonymous said...

A Mexican collapse might be okay.

It would give the U.S. a reason to capture the top quarter or third of Mexico and create a protectorate of "El Norte". Then we could create a stable region for Mexican and other refugees, as well as a place for illegal aliens to be deported to.

Tirno said...

If they go full Venezuela and crash and burn in the inevitable way, I think an offer should be made to individual Mexican states to secede and become US territories, ultimately on the way to making them US states.

Also, make it known within the borders of the USA that any illegal alien of Mexican extraction that is a registered and physically-present resident of a seceding Mexican state when it votes to become a US territory becomes a US citizen automatically.

None of this can happen until the Marxist-Leninist utopia takes place and the people that are left know the cause of their suffering. There is no way we could add a territory to the US where there is even a small amount of the "Well, socialism failed, but that was because we had the wrong people in charge" delusion. Giving completely unwarranted benefit of teh doubt to that statement, the corrolary, as learned from history, is that socialism has no mechanism to prevent it, so it is inevitable that the wrong people will be in charge, particularly once all the 'right people' have been condemned for insufficient revolutionary zeal and shot.

C. S. P. Schofield said...

Annexation!

deborah harvey said...

mexicans have been disgusted by the corruption in their government for long years.
they might elect this man in order to rid themselves of the rats, then find that they are out of the frying pan into the fire.
if they want to elect themselves into our country good for them. but they have to learn as much english as possible. bilingualism leads to never ending infighting.

Anonymous said...

Annex parts of Mexico?

Are you all crazy?

Massive corruption, overwhelming poverty, horrific crime, and millions of left wing voters?

Yes, that sounds like what we need!

CDH said...

I'm with Anonymous. We do NOT want to annex ANY part of Mexico...unless it is depopulated first and that is pretty much unthinkable.

Andrew said...

Obrador will be lucky to survive to the election. Died in bed with his mistress, a convenient traffic accident, plane crash, attack by a cartel group, food poisoning. All of these have been done before, could easily happen again.

And you never know when your hot water heater will kill you...

In all seriousness, yeah, he's got a big target on his back.

Will said...

Those of you who desire we add parts of Mexico to the US have obviously not spent time around immigrants from there. No thanks. I want them all sent back. It's CULTURE, people!

Judy said...

I'm also with Anonymous on this one. We The People don't need any more of that heartburn than we are already experiencing. It would be Puerto Rico on steroids.

Mexico is a sovereign nation and they have to make whatever choices they make and suffer the consequences of those actions. One more reason to get that wall built and patrolled.

Anonymous said...

I have great respect for the individual Mexicans I have worked with. They came here legally, or started the process as soon as it became available (long story not mine to tell), and work hard. They want to be Americans. I also respect the men I worked with in Mexico who were trying to improve their village and make a better life for their families despite the government's actions (long story).

I do not want the US to annex any part of Mexico. The various governments, and the cartels (which in some places are the de facto governments) have ruined the country, and have made a lot of the cultures incompatible with what I see as the strengths of the US. Add the flat-out-tribalism of the peoples in the southern part of Mexico... no. I hope and pray for the people of Mexico, but we need a secure border and they need to fix their own problems.

LittleRed1

JK Brown said...

Sounds like we need a wall.

So why does no one ever ask the Mexican candidates what they plan to do about the reality that so many Mexican citizens want to leave the country for the US?

I get it, the US is great, but what does that say about Mexico?