I note that Defense Secretary Hegseth has asked the US military to prepare for budget cuts of about 8% a year over the next five years. That sounds like a tall order, but I think it's entirely feasible if he takes an axe to the bureaucracy, waste and "gilding the lily" that's rampant in our armed forces at present. Examples:
- The Constellation-class frigate program was supposed to use an existing design, with minimal modification. After "tinkering" by the Navy, it now has less than 15% commonality with its source design. It's also three years late and 40% over budget. At this point, it might be better to "reset" the entire program, go back to its original design roots, and cancel everything over and above that.
- The F-35, which after years of tinkering and ten years in service is still not at its full, originally specified operational capability, and is costing so much that it's soaking up funds needed for other aircraft projects.
- The US Navy has less than 300 ships in active service, and about 230 admirals of various grades - approximately 1.3 ships per admiral. If we adjust things so that we have just 2 ships per admiral, that would reduce the "deadwood" by about eighty admirals - and I'm sure that's just the beginning of what could be achieved. The other services could do likewise. For decades, Air Force wings were commanded by colonels. Today, some are commanded by brigadier-generals. Why? Why not go back to the old way and save all those general officer salaries and benefits?
I hope that as far as weapon design and procurement goes, the armed forces will seriously consider Elon Musk's approach to new technology. Build a "first-pass" attempt and test it. It'll probably fail. Find out why, fix that, and see what else can be improved. Build a "second-pass" attempt and test it. Ditto. After a few iterations, you're likely to see greatly improved results - and you'll get them fast, instead of having to wait years for theoretical designers to try to make sure everything's safe on paper before they allow anything to actually be made.
I'd also like to see something like Armscor's approach to weapons design in South Africa. When a new weapon was required, a design was chosen and developed to pre-production standards: then the engineers who'd built it, and who would oversee production, were expected to take it into a combat zone and test it under fire. Most of them, of course, had seen military service as conscripts, so they weren't unused to the idea, but it was nonetheless amusing to hear their comments when something proved less than satisfactory while the enemy was shooting at them. (I learned a few new words that way.) It also made sure that the actual production models were as good as they could be, with very few surprises (unpleasant or otherwise) for the troops using them.
A good example was the first field test of South Africa's ZT3 anti-tank missile, today known as the Ingwe. Based on the US TOW missile, which was then developed into a laser-guided version, MAPATS, by an Israeli company, the ZT3 was sent into combat in 1987, mounted on a Ratel IFV, as a final test before full production began. A few Angolan T-55's duly turned up, and fire was exchanged. Unfortunately, in some cases the missile's laser guidance system, designed to seek out a laser beam being projected onto the target and follow it, instead found the hot, bright African sun a much more interesting illumination - so some missiles took off skyward, pursued by the highly indignant epithets of the engineers and servicemen trying to defend themselves. Others worked. You can hear ten minutes of audio from that actual combat at this link.
I'm afraid a "waste mindset" has permeated through much of the US military these days. "We don't have to worry - the taxpayer will foot the bill!" I don't think that's accurate any more . . . and I hope our armed forces can change their ways, and become leaner and meaner than before.
Peter
21 comments:
May I suggest caution with use of the all encompassing term "the military"? The vast majority of "the military" have nothing to do with the decisions of those gilded lilies who do.
Thinking back over my career I worked for and Insurance co that sold a life package to National Guard troops. As such I was at a briefing about using the AirForce payroll system rather that the Guards current one. Most of the Generals were not on board as they would have to change some of there cut outs. At the time I did not associate any significance to that. Now I see it in its true light.
The Constellation project is proof (as if more were needed after the LCS, et al) that the modern Navy bureaucracy cannot be trusted to design and build ships. Buy the rights for existing ships from Italy or whomever, and start mass producing them as-is, no changes other than translating displays, markings, and signage to English desired or allowed.
Once they've shown they can follow simple directions, then, maybe, send a few good officers to Italy or wherever to understudy their design teams.
USA DOD is a hot mess. Firing about half of the people should help. I just do not know which half. A good start would be the excess generals and admirals.
The Russian "Program" for weapons development would be a pretty good way to go, compared to the the graft, bribe, blackmail system we currently have. Defence based, not offence.
Their weapons blows ours in the weeds cost/destruction, effective wise. Especially in missile tech! Undefendable. Our shit takes too long to build, is too "techie", expensive, ineffective and fragile.
They clearly run a regional, defence based operation. Only enough navy for areas around Russia. Before Ukraine, barely enough army to protect Russia. The ONLY non regional offensive capability they have is nuclear. That has INTENT written all over it, non global power projection. They get invited into counties, they don't invade them.
I love my country, but we have been run by neocon warmongers (deep state, commie, Satanists) for too many decades! Time for a change.
8% cuts each of 5 years is 44% (even not accounting for inflation)
that seems like an ambitious goal (to put it mildly), but there is nothing wrong with ambitious goals. Just recognize that they are goals you set, and therefor goals you can change as needed.
I agree there is a lot of dead wood to cut, but that much?
Don't forget to adjust the goals when you identify something that will save money (like closing a base) but Congress directs you to keep it open. (or it could be a directive from the President to do something)
As bad as the US admiral to ship ratio is. England now has more admirals than ships, and twice as many horses in it's army as main battle tanks (~500 vs 231)
Given what happened the last time a wealthy industrialist obsessed with efficiency had his way with the DOD, I am not enthusiastic for Musk to have his way. Auditing and analysis, sure. But I don't want a repeat of Robert Macnamara and the unmitigated disaster he caused.
I'd like to point out that the original FREMM design was not up to US Navy standards. I truly wish the the program had started with a US basic frigate design, like, for example, the Perry Class frigates.
I'm pretty sure most DoD programs started off small and lean and took risks. If they failed they died (Snark missile anyone?) Success meant they got bigger and eventually became vital. Since they were vital, they couldn't take risks, and needed staff to make sure everything was done exactly as specified and analyzed to death.
Not sure where to start with a 'minimum viable Navy destroyer'
8% over five years is just over one percent per year. There is enough rot and waste to absorb that sort of cut without impacting readiness. As you suggest, simply removing half of the admirals would be a good first step for the US Navy.
hmm, according to this video from SecDef https://x.com/DeptofDefense/status/1892702578418327972
it is not a 8% budget cut, but looking to move 8% of the budget from Biden's priorities to core warfighting priorities. It explicitly says that nuke modernization, and several other named high priority projects are not planned to be cut.
@Hamsterman
> Not sure where to start with a 'minimum viable Navy destroyer'
You start out with a existing destroyer design that's modern and in use by multiple allied Navies. Then you minimize modifications to it so that you keep parts compatibility (which both eases logistics as a base can support multiple navies, and brings down the costs of those parts as they are built in higher volumes)
Somewhere along the line, the Good Idea Fairy got out of control and they forgot the bit about parts compatibility (or it was a series of "this change doesn't make a noticeable difference in the compatibility" decisions.)
But the result is the Constellation program.
This will only work if the design you're looking at meets minimum standards for US Navy. Unfortunately, a lot of modification starts right there, because it doesn't. Then the government wants it to have more stuff/capability on it, and pretty soon that causes second and third order changes. Eventually this causes the ship not to have much in common with the original design.
@hammerbach. If the ship wasn't at least pretty close to the US Navy standards, then shame on the US Navy for picking that design as the baseline
or alternately, let's examine the standards, are they real needs, or are the 'because we've always done it that way'?, if the Navy didn't do this, then again, shame on them
Vast quantities of "Plenty Good-Enough" won WWII. The Nazi had better, faster planes but we were able to swarm them when they landed.
Pretty sad when billions are going to pushing the bleeding-edge of flight technology and we cannot make enough 155mm shells in a month to fight for a week.
All that crap in Afghanistan was given to the government put in place, vetted and trained, by the cadre of flag officers and all those consultants. It was as fraudulent as all the USAID line items we read about today. Left behind, however, it was not. The crime as all those people who thought we could change those tribes into something western and 'pro west'. It was all a lie. Lots of that leadership of ours needs to be jailed over that 20 year war.
This Frigate has enlarged so much they might as well go back to the original hull of the Arleigh Burke class Destroyer. It would be cheaper.
@hammerbach - I do not believe we can take "the Navy's standards" as being viable or reasonable. This is, after all, the same Navy that designed and built the LCS class ships, which don't have galleys, can't cross the Atlantic without refueling, and a damage control policy of, "Abandon ship!" And they couldn't make a working 6" gun cruiser. And the disaster of the new carrier. And the decision to replace a proven 5" gun with a 57mm known for its unreliability and inaccuracy. And the loss by fire of a capital ship in dry dock. And, and, and...
Always worth a read is `CDR Salamander` over on Substack. He's lamented the entire Constellation-class process from the beginning. Considering future excitement in WestPac, we need to get our house in order ASAP to deal with. Too many people, for too long forget it is a maritime world we live in. Re: WWII - all those USA troops that liberated Europe were not flown there, they went by ship; and those had to be protected.
Yes - warfare has change with drones, AI, hypersonic-tech, but you still have to get `stuff` there - with a ship.
And to echo what CDRSal has pointed out numerous times, ships need guns; once you've popped the dozens of missiles from their magazines, you've got to leave theater to get a reload. Shell magazines can be reloaded under-way and have been for a long time.
Good Luck to us All
+1 In the olden times, contractors brought designs to the Dept of Navy or War . The appropriate authority would have a trial to see which one worked best for that mission. Now DOD pays companies to develop a prototype, changes its' mind, broadens the specifications, changes the spec again to add features of dubious quality. Each change order means increased cost.
Add in there is now roughly 1 civilian employee for every 2 uniformed service members in the DOD and no idea how many contractors sucking at the governmental tit. Taking 8% off the pork would not hurt a thing.
I agree that Navy and Industry have and are the source of all kinds of problems. The standards I'm talking about are not new. They applied generally to the first ship I worked on over 30 years ago, and they are still important.
Are you in industry, or Navy?
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