Preparing for economic hard times

Following my article yesterday, 'Politicians and central bankers are lying in their teeth', a couple of readers asked in Comments how they could prepare for the predicted downturn.

"Predicting the future is hard, I get it. But my question is, are we expecting a 2008 crash? A 2001 crash? 1929? Something unprecedented? Or completely unknown? Secondly, how would one prepare for such a financial collapse?"

"Yeah, I hear ya about the multinational quagmire that we are in...BUT my economic influence extends to the tips of my fingers! So what do I have to do to "gird my loins" for the crash?"

Others have asked similar questions in e-mails.  I thought I'd try to address some of them tonight.  (And, by the way, the similarity of our present situation to 1929 is scary!  See here for more information.  If you're in any doubt about the seriousness of our current economic crisis, and its implications for the future, see the latest from Karl Denninger.  He speaks the truth.  The danger's real and inescapable.)

It's easiest to explain our current economic predicament by analogy.  Say you're living near the San Andreas Fault in California right now.  You know, beyond any shadow of doubt or misunderstanding, that the so-called 'Big One' - a devastating mega-earthquake along that fault - is only a matter of time.  Sooner or later, it will happen . . . so what do you do to prepare for it?  Some steps seem logical and obvious.

• Don't live in buildings that are poorly constructed to resist earthquake stresses, and therefore are more likely to collapse.
• Try not to live in areas where major transport arteries - roads, railways, bridges, etc. - are likely to be cut by an earthquake, thereby preventing you from fleeing and supplies and emergency workers from reaching your area.
• Store sufficient emergency supplies - food, water, clothing, etc. - to get through a few weeks of deprivation following such a disaster, when supermarkets may be closed or inaccessible.  (Make sure you store them where you'll be able to get to them after a disaster - if they're in a collapsed building, they won't do you much good!)

The most obvious precaution of all is to move away from the entire danger zone, into a safer region.  However, most people don't do that, for reasons that make little sense to me.  If I lived in a flood plain or a storm surge threat area or in Tornado Alley, and I therefore knew beyond any doubt that such a disaster was guaranteed to strike again sometime in the next few years or decades, why would I stay there?  Yet people do stay in such areas.  It seems humans aren't all that logical after all . . .

Let's apply those analogies to economic preparations.  The first point to clarify is that there isn't any 'safe zone' where economic woes won't affect us.  It's not like a physical risk - earthquake, fire, flood, whatever.  When the economy goes down the tubes, everyone's going to suffer.  Those who are well-off will suffer less than those who are destitute, but everyone's going to be affected to some extent, as will every national and regional economy in the world.  We can't run, and we can't hide.

The second important point is to understand and learn from what others experienced in previous economic downturns and disasters.  We're likely to undergo very similar events, so we can learn from their successes - and their mistakes.  The subject is too vast to compress into a single blog article, but I highly recommend that you read as widely as possible about the following economic catastrophes:

• Hyper-inflation in Zimbabwe during the past decade.
• Inflation and economic collapse in Argentina in recent decades (this is a very detailed interview that I recommend watching and/or reading in full).
• Hyper-inflation in the Weimar Republic during the 1920's.

Don't just read the links provided above, but do an Internet search on each one and study it more widely.  You'll find a number of common factors.  Here are just a few to be going on with that were common to all of those crises.

1. Shop-owners were reluctant to put goods on the shelves for sale, because the price they could get for their goods today would be less than what they would have to pay tomorrow to replace them.  They therefore preferred to withhold goods from the market, leading to shortages.
2. Consumers hurried to buy what they needed at once, while they could still afford it.  Those who hesitated often found that prices would rise overnight, so that what they had budgeted for their purchase was no longer enough.  This 'panic buying' made the shortages of goods (caused by [1] above) even worse.
3. Wages and salaries could not keep pace with inflation, so many consumers resorted to barter, or worked more than one job.  Payments 'under the table', without taxes or other fees being deducted, became more common, as did payment 'in kind' in goods or services.  A 'barter economy' developed in parallel with the 'cash economy', leading to widespread loss of revenue to the government.
4. Those who had no reserves of cash or valuables rapidly found themselves in real economic trouble.  If they lived from paycheck to paycheck, the loss of a job (which happened more often during economic turmoil) was a direct and immediate threat to their economic survival, as it was unlikely they'd be able to find another job quickly.  As a result, public reliance on government 'safety nets' grew exponentially - just as government revenues were being slashed through diminished economic (i.e. taxable) activity and loss of revenue in the 'barter economy'.  This made it more difficult for the government to adequately assist those in need.

All these consequences are likely to occur in the USA at some point.  We don't know when they're going to happen - just as no-one knows when the 'Big One' will hit California - but it's as certain as the dawn that both eventualities will come to pass.

Knowing likely risks, we can prepare ourselves for them, if - if! - we have sufficient mental and financial flexibility to do so.  Some won't be able to do so.  They're living from paycheck to paycheck, already stretched to the limit, or they lack an adaptable mindset.  Others will be able to economize to at least some extent, freeing up funds to begin setting up an economic safety net for themselves.  I strongly recommend that everyone try to implement as many of these strategies as possible:

1. Reduce your debt load.  Every cent you spend on debt each month is a cent you can't devote to more important needs.  Pay off high-interest debts first, then low-interest, but pay them off.  Stop using credit cards as far as possible, and pay off their balances.  Don't incur new debt unless you absolutely have no choice.  Yes, this will mean buying cheaper things.  So what?  If they'll serve your needs, that's fine.
2. Get rid of what you don't need or use.  This is partly to 'clear the decks' for essentials.  Also, if you have to move, it's easier to do so when you aren't weighted down by lots of junk.  It's also useful to convert your non-essential items to cash - if you can sell them, even for a few dollars, that money can go into your reserves (see next point below).  If you can't sell them, how about swapping them for something you need more urgently?  Craigslist is your friend for that sort of thing, as are yard sales and flea markets.  I've taken excess ammunition and knives into a gun show, swapping some for what I needed and selling the rest.  It's worth doing.  Every little helps.
3. Build up some emergency cash reserves.  Savings are a lifeline if you need to buy something right away, when credit may be hard to obtain and expensive when it's available.  Even a few hundred dollars may make the difference between eating this month, or going hungry.  Larger cash reserves make life even simpler.  (For example, last year Miss D.'s old car died.  We paid a few thousand in cash from our savings to buy a used car in a private sale, rather than take out an auto loan for a newer, more expensive vehicle from a dealer.  We're still rebuilding our savings to where they were - but having them available when we needed them saved us a lot of hassle, and a lot of money!)  Furthermore, don't keep all your cash reserves in a bank - keep at least some in your home, securely stored.  This can be a life-saver if a power failure disables ATM's or the banks are closed!
4. Build up a reserve of essential supplies.  I've written about the importance of having basic foodstuffs available - see here.  You can buy a few extra things every time you go to the store.  A few extra packages of rice, beans, dried milk, etc. can go an awful long way if goods are scarce and/or prices are fluctuating.  Even if you're on a tight budget, there are things you can do.  If you find yourself out of work, at least your emergency supplies will help you to survive until the next job comes along.  They can also help you survive temporary fluctuations such as the likely effect of the current drought on food prices this year.
5. Build up a stock of items that will be useful in a barter economy.  Look for things you can pick up cheaply or free, but which will be of value in times of scarcity.  Take a few extra packets of ketchup or mustard when you order a burger.  Store old nails, screws and bolts, and ask your friends to let you have any that they're going to discard.  If someone near you chops down a tree, ask whether you can have some of it for firewood.  If you work in health care, partly used bottles of common medications (aspirin, paracetamol, etc.) can be very sought-after items in an emergency.  If you're a handyman, you've probably got several sets of screwdrivers, wrenches, etc.  Why not sort them into sets, keep the best for yourself, and store those you don't need?  They make great barter items.  Another example from my own experience:  miniature, airline-size bottles of spirits - available from most liquor stores, or from your friendly airline stewardess - make very acceptable barter fodder.
6. Pay attention to security and safety.  In a declining economy, those who are at the bottom of the ladder will get desperate.  In particular, if the state is forced to reduce its handouts to those who depend on them, they're going to try to make up for the shortfall by turning to crime.  I don't care whether that statement is politically correct or not - it's true.  It's happened during every such crisis in the past, and it'll happen again in the future.  Be aware of the possible risks, and prepare for them as best you can.  Make yourself a less obvious target by concealing your reserves of provisions, etc., not flashing your cash around, and living inconspicuously.  If you live in a high-risk area for crime, try to move to a safer one.

An economic collapse is a slow-motion thing.  It's not like an earthquake, where everything comes tumbling down at once.  We can expect this to play out over several years, if not a couple of decades.  Plan accordingly.  It's never too late to start.

Peter

Windy!

This video clip was recorded at Crown Point, Oregon, last month.  The wind was gusting to well over 100 mph (more than 160 km/h).  If you look at this picture of Crown Point, you can see that the building portrayed below is exposed to the winds from all directions, so it's not surprising the gusts affected it so greatly.

Peter

Politicians and central bankers are lying in their teeth

Grant Williams has an outstanding newsletter this week (link is to an Adobe Acrobat document in .PDF format) dealing with the current crisis in emerging markets, the effects of the Fed's 'tapering', and the implications of current policies (both political and fiscal) for the world (and the US) economy.  His conclusions are very like those I posited recently.  Here's an excerpt.

Everywhere you look, concern is rising amongst those charged with applying the copious amounts of sticking plaster that are vital to ensuring the world financial system doesn't fall apart...

. . .

... a big problem is that, over the course of the ongoing financial crisis (yes, it is), the power wielded by central bankers has reached unprecedented levels as one extraordinary measure after another has been implemented simply in order to maintain the status quo.

. . .

... central bankers lie. The job demands it. That means that they join politicians in the category marked "cannot be trusted," and yet investors the world over are not only relying on the promises made by these individuals but also trusting them to be both transparent and honest when the job demands they be neither.

Given that they lie to us, and given that they are making two key representations to us, should we not perhaps take a moment to think about the two inputs to this particular equation?

Politicians across the globe are assuring us that (amongst other lies things):

1) The "recovery" is either here or right around the corner.
In fact, it is neither.

2) Remaining in the EU is the best option for Greece, Spain, Italy (and France).
It is not.

3) Soaking the rich is the answer to a multitude of problems.
It isn't.

4) Raising taxes will generate the necessary revenue without having a negative effect on the economy.
It won't.

5) Future promises of entitlement payments are solid.
They aren't. Defaults are inevitable.

Meanwhile, the central bankers of the world are promising us that:

1) Interest rates will remain low for a very long time.
In the end, it's not central bankers' choice to make.

2) Quantitative easing has no ill effects and can be withdrawn at will without causing any problems.
It can't be.

3) Printing money will not translate into higher inflation.
It will. It just hasn't yet.

4) They will do "whatever it takes," and that will be enough.
There is a limit to what they can do, and it will ultimately not be enough.

5) They are all in this together.
They're not. It is every man for himself now, and the Fed will screw them all.

So here we are.

Having established that, like politicians, central bankers are required to lie to us in order to be able to do their jobs, we are left facing a couple of crucial questions. First, IS tapering tightening, or not? Secondly, what does all this chaos in emerging markets in the wake of The Tighten Taper mean, and where does it take us from here?

. . .

Not only is tapering most definitely tightening (don't listen to what they say, watch the results), but we have likely seen just the beginning of the fallout from the Fed's new course.

Will they stick to it? No. They won't be able to. They MAY taper another $10 bn in March when Janet Yellen's first rate decision is announced, but I suspect that by then markets will be in such a state of disrepair that excuses will be made as to why the taper has been suspended. You can bet your bottom dollar that there will be some frantic calls put in to Ms. Yellen's office by her peers around the world between now and March 20, all of which will be begging calling for an end to The Taper.

Ultimately, QE will continue to be expanded until it implodes in a fireball the like of which has never been seen before. There's no choice, I am afraid, because the alternative would involve the telling of some very harsh truths by politicians and central bankers and the bestowing of some serious pain on an electorate that already holds them in contempt.

Think those truths are going to be volunteered?

Me neither.

The splintering of central bank policy is just the beginning.

There's much more at the link.

Folks, I said a couple of weeks ago:  "I begin to think that the economic chickens may finally be coming home to roost".  Mr. Williams' analysis dovetails very neatly with what I see in the markets today.  He who has ears to hear, let him hear . . . and let him batten down the hatches, economically speaking, while he's about it.

As Paul Singer said in his January newsletter:

As we and others have said, the Fed is overly reliant upon models that do not account for real-world elements of instruments, markets and traders in the derivatives age. Models cannot possibly take into account unpredictable interactions among huge positions and traders in new and very complicated instruments. Thus, the Fed should be careful, humble and conservative. Instead, it is just blithely plowing ahead as if it knows exactly what is going on. Intelligent captains sail uncharted waters with extra caution and high alert; only fools think that each mile they sail without sinking the vessel further demonstrates that they are wise and the naysayers were fools. This is a formula for destruction. The crash of 2008 should have been smoking-gun evidence of the folly of this approach, but every mistake leading up to the crash, especially excessive and “invisible” leverage and interest rates that were too low, has been doubled down upon in the years since.

We're about to reap the bitter fruit of that doubling down.

Peter

Doofus Of The Day #753 - a classic 'own goal'!

A specially meritorious Doofus award with gold star goes to a 'suicide bomb instructor' in Iraq.

A group of Sunni militants attending a suicide bombing training class at a camp north of Baghdad were killed on Monday when their commander unwittingly conducted a demonstration with a belt that was packed with explosives, army and police officials said.

. . .

Twenty-two ISIS members were killed, and 15 were wounded, in the explosion at the camp, which is in a farming area in the northeastern province of Samara, according to the police and army officials. Stores of other explosive devices and heavy weapons were also kept there, the officials said.

There's more at the link.

The schadenfreude, it burns . . . with enemies like that, who needs friends?





Peter

A look inside a gold vault

In the light of speculation about the whereabouts (and security) of Germany's gold reserves, I found this video clip interesting.  It was filmed in the Bank of England's gold vault in 2012.

I wonder how much of that gold is still there?

Peter

A fascinating look at liquor smuggling during Prohibition

A Web site called Drinking Cup has a very interesting article about a liquor smuggler nicknamed 'The Real McCoy' (from his surname) who was active during Prohibition.  It gives a lot more background about where the liquor came from and how it was carried to the USA.  Here's an excerpt.

Recognising the potential for legal trade just outside Americas three mile marine border, Bill's risk free technique was to park his fully laden vessels just inside international waters and arrange for mainlanders to make their way through Rum Row to purchase liquor from his floating stores.  Always a prudent man, only two potential buyers were allowed aboard at any one time and all trading vessels would be under the scrutiny of a swivel machine gun on the yachts prow to deter any idea of hijacking or argument.  Despite the security measures, Bill's reputation and success continued to grow and soon loyal customers were even invited to remain aboard for evening cocktails.

Not just credited with inventing the technique known as Rum Row, Bill is also said to have developed the smugglers ham or burlock (aka sacks by the US Coast Guard), a more convenient form of moving and transporting liquor between vessels.  A ham consisted of a pyramid stack of 6 bottles (stacked 3,2,1) wrapped tightly in straw and burlap (hessian sacking).  These bundles could be easily stacked top to tail and were quicker and safer to move between vessels than the standard wooden cases of 12.  Some hams were even stuffed with salt which, if about to be boarded by authorities, could be thrown overboard where they would sink with the weight of the salt hiding any incriminating evidence.  Later the salt would dissolve with the sack floating back to the surface for collection once again.

. . .

Potentially the biggest influence of all was the impact Bill made on a sleepy French fishing community on the island of St Pierre just south of Newfoundland, Canada.  Recognising potential in its location to the US mainland, Bill officially moved his operation from Nassau to the island in 1922.  Located just 970 miles from the Rum Row of New York city, St Pierre also had the solid advantage of being a French colony (and therefore outside of US law ), offering a port that didn’t freeze over in winter, no competing factions, total cooperation from the poor locals and low export tax on all products shipped.  What would follow would single handily transform the islands community and economy into one of the most successful smuggling ports in history.

A year after Bill first arrived with a hold full of Canadian Club whiskey, over 1000 vessels would be recorded having come and gone from the small island.  Initially a  fishing port with a population of 4000, St Pierre was transformed commercial merchant town.  Fishing docks were converted into negociants, fisherman rehired as longshoreman or crew aboard runners and almost every spare barn, garage or cellar converted into a liquor warehouse.  By the end of 1923, 6 million bottles would be recorded passing through the town, an equal of 1500 bottles per every man women and child on the island.  This period St Pierre’s history has become known as Le Temps de la Fraude – “The time of the scam”.  A visiting Canadian journalist wrote of the town, “The odour grew so strong that at times the fog that rolled up St Pierre’s steeply inclined streets with the nightly tide would carry a distinct Scotch flavor”.

There's lots more at the link, and at other articles linked in the original.  I found it a fun and informative perspective on history.  Recommended reading.

Peter

A cross-border Hispanic gang alliance?

There's a very interesting trial under way in Texas right now.  Evidence introduced there implicates one of the most violent US Hispanic prison gangs, Barrio Azteca, in Mexican drug cartel violence.

Members of the Texas-born Barrio Azteca gang are receiving training from Mexico's Zetas, according to the testimony of a former gang member, a sign the group is evolving and deepening its role in organized crime beyond the border region.

Former Barrio Azteca member Jesus Ernesto Chavez Castillo -- who is serving as a witness in the Texas trial of the gang's ex-leader in exchange for protection in prison -- said the Zetas are training members of the gang for assassinations, attacks, extortion and protection, reported Informador.

Barrio Azteca sent two teams to the city of Torreon, in Coahuila state, to be trained in more efficient methods, according to Chavez Castillo. As part of the training, they were required to extort local businesses and pay off local and federal police.

Chavez Castillo's testimony also detailed the group's past role in the cartel war for control of Ciudad Juarez, in which they served as hired assassins for the Juarez Cartel.

There's more at the link.  You can read more about the Barrio Azteca gang here, here and here, and about the current court case here.

I ran into Barrio Azteca members during my service as a prison chaplain.  They were one of the more violent and predatory gangs on the compound, although at the time I encountered them they weren't as powerful as they've since become.  Today they're a major security risk outside prison as well (recently recognized by the FBI when it designated the organization as a national security threat).

This brings up a point I made in my memoir of prison chaplaincy.

Sometimes we wish we could go to court and say bluntly, “If you let this man out, he’s going to hurt or kill others. He’s a permanent danger to society. He needs to stay behind bars.” Very sadly, we don’t have the legal right to do that, and courts in most states don’t have the authority to order permanent incarceration for such offenders. Every year we’re legally obliged to discharge inmates ... on completion of their sentences, in the sure and certain knowledge that someone out there is going to suffer, perhaps even die, because we’re doing so. It tears your guts out sometimes.

That's one of the factors that have fueled the rise of Barrio Azteca.  It recruited many of its initial members among Hispanic drug traffickers who were serving sentences in state and Federal prisons.  When they were released, the Mexicans among them were deported to that country according to the requirements of Federal law.  They took with them their gang affiliation, and spread Barrio Azteca's influence in their homeland.  The gang's alliance with the Juarez cartel was a natural evolution of this development.  By releasing such hardened criminals, who had not reformed and whom the authorities must have known without a shadow of doubt would continue in their criminal ways, the crime situation outside the prison was made worse.  Unfortunately, there's nothing else the authorities could have done under the law as it stands.

I think this is only one of a number of similar developments we'll see during the coming months and years.  There are increasing signs of such alliances between other gangs as well.  This doesn't bode well for US national and social security.  We're not used to dealing with gangs and large numbers of individuals to whom human life is a commodity to be traded like drugs or guns.  If they want to establish their dominance in an area, they have no problem killing anyone who gets in their way - or killing enough local residents to make the rest cower in fear and not resist their takeover.  They've done that in Mexico for a long, long time - although some have pushed it too far, resulting in the current vigilante resistance movement there.  I fear we'll see similar tactics imported into Hispanic communities in this country.  Some say we already have . . .

Peter

Another reason not to walk during a snowstorm . . .

This security video was shot in front of an auto dealership in Brooklyn, New York City, during a recent snowstorm.

I'm still not sure why he didn't see it coming in time to duck aside.  Lost in thought, perhaps?  Or just cold?

Peter

Doofus Of The Day #752

Today's prize goes to a witless, hapless, and now possibly nutless criminal in Portland, Oregon.

Joseph Johnson, 40, has been released from the hospital and booked into the Multnomah County Jail on charges of first-degree robbery, second-degree assault and felon in possession of a firearm.

Robbery detectives said ... Johnson apparently confronted Merrell in the parking lot behind the building, demanded he hand over his property and then shot Merrell in the leg, police said.

While Johnson was making his getaway, he shoved the gun into the front of his pants and shot himself in the groin.

There's more at the link.  You can read more about the incident here.

One of the criteria for eligibility for a Darwin Award is that the recipient "must be deceased, or at least incapable of reproducing".  On that basis, Mr. Johnson probably wins one of those as well.  A 'Doofus Darwin' or a 'Darwin Doofus'?  You decide!





Peter

Around The Blogs 2014-02-08

Here goes with this week's roundup.

# # #

Rev. Donald Sensing points out that 'idle people will not get health insurance without work'.

It is the Left's usual M.O. First they make health insurance mandatory by law to buy. Then they create a premium and subsidy structure that guarantees most of the bottom 50 percent of earners will have to be subsidized. More importantly, though, is that those people soon realize that they cannot earn much more money or their subsidies will be yanked. The financial flogging that would follow therefrom would be unbearable. So they stay poor and dependent on the government simply to stay in stasis.

To the Left, that is not a bug, it is a feature.

Word.

# # #

Carteach0 brings us a few lessons learned during several days without power.  Looks like he came through it fairly well.  (By the way, I have most of the products he found very useful during this limited emergency, and I second his recommendation of them.  See his post for more information.)

# # #

A law officer writes to Survival Blog with some interesting information about a survival cache that was discovered by youngsters.  He has several thoughts on the matter, including suggestions to avoid similar complications.  I don't maintain buried caches of supplies - I can't afford excess supplies for that purpose, and if I have fewer supplies in the first place I want them where I can get at them! - but if you do, or are considering it, you'll find this useful.

# # #

Wirecutter brings us another reminder of why there's America . . . and then there's California.

# # #

Ben Horowitz brings us an interesting story of how being legally astute and very careful helped him to avoid going to jail - but landed his former Chief Financial Officer behind bars.  Moral of the story:  be careful whose advice you take . . .

# # #

Blue brings us two very amusing posts this week.  First up is a reminder of why the grass is greener on the other side of the fence.  Second is a tale that aptly sums up the difference between teachers and educators.  Both made me laugh out loud.

# # #

JayG brings us news of the progress of an interesting hybrid between a light car and a motorcycle.  He's thinking of putting down a deposit for one.  After reading his account, I must admit, I'm thinking about it myself.

# # #

Eric S. Raymond can't resist the temptation to go 'Down the feminist rabbit hole'.

I think this sort of bitter involution is what eventually and inevitably happens when you marinate in left-wing duckspeak for long enough. (Clue: if you find yourself using the word “neoliberal” as non-ironically as these women do, you’re there. For utter lack of meaning outside of a dense thicket of self-referential cod-Marxist presuppositions disconnected from reality, this one has few rivals.)

Accordingly, George Orwell would have no trouble at all identifying the language of the feminist twitter wars as a form of Newspeak, designed not to convey thought but suppress it. Indeed, part of the content of the wars is that some of these women dimly sort of get this – see the whole argument over “callout culture”. But none of them can wake up enough to see that the problem is not just individual behaviors. Because to do that they’d have to face how irretrievably rotten and oppressive their entire discourse has become, and their worldview would collapse.

Don't hold back, Eric - tell us how you really feel!

# # #

C. W. Swanson brings us photographic evidence of a doctor with a problem . . .

# # #

XBradTC reminds us of an old, but still amusing commentary on the difference between AK-47, AR-15 and Mosin-Nagant rifles.  This one will appeal to the gunnies among us.

# # #

Finally, Og the Neanderpundit made me spit tea all over my screen with visual evidence that there is, indeed, a factual foundation to blowing smoke up someone's ass.  Ye Gods and little fishes . . .

# # #

That's all for this week.

Peter

Not your usual docking maneuver . . .

Here's a ferry, the former MV Ostend Spirit, being deliberately run aground at Aliağa in Turkey in November last year, prior to being broken up for scrap.  I recommend watching it in full-screen mode.

With all that mass (26,433 tons) on the move at full speed (22 knots), she comes quite a long way up the beach, doesn't she?  She also knocks the ships on either side out of the way without any trouble at all.

Peter

The disconnect between liberal/progressive academics and reality

I'm still shaking my head at the sheer, utter stupidity on display in a US News discussion about the impact of Obamacare on jobs.  Here's an excerpt.

What the truth might be, and what few politicians would dare say, is there might simply be some value in lower economic growth.

. . .

Initially, says one expert, there will be benefits in the fact that there is plenty of slack in the labor market. The combination of many unemployed Americans and many people finding jobs just to get insurance means that if a few people cut back their hours, there will be more hours for the people who want them. In and of itself, that theoretically means people will be much happier, says Ken Jacobs, chair of the Labor Center at the University of California-Berkeley, though that effect would dissipate as the job market improves.

“GDP growth isn't a good in and of itself,” he says. “The question here is what's going to create the most happiness for the greatest numbers of people. Being in a situation where people have to work full time or 40 hours a week at a job that may not be the best match for them because that is the only way to get health insurance is not the way you create the greatest happiness for the greatest number of people.”

. . .

The ultimate question is a question of philosophy of government: especially at a time of economic weakness, can any more hits to growth be tolerated, or is the populace’s welfare the ultimate good?

There's (unfortunately) more at the link.  Bold underlined text is my emphasis.

The obvious, screaming, in-your-face problem with this perspective is simple.  Who decides what constitutes "happiness"?  Who decides what constitutes "the populace's welfare"?  Who determines what is (or what should be) "the ultimate good" of the populace, or a society, or a nation?  Clearly, the 'enlightened' (doubtless including Mr. Jacobs) would opine that we can leave those decisions in their hands.  Personally, I'd rather fire every one of these academics in their left-leaning ivory towers, and trust those who've actually worked for a living.

Meanwhile, in the real world:

• For the true impact of Obamacare on the job market, free of socialist and/or progressive and/or left-wing and/or Marxist rhetoric, see here.
• Guess what all those newly jobless or those with reduced hours of work are going to do?  They're going to demand government handouts to subsidize them.
• Guess who's going to be asked to pay for those handouts?  The taxpayers of America - you and I.
• Finally, care to guess the reaction of more and more of those taxpayers?

Word.





Peter

Doofus Of The Day #751

Today's award goes to a passel of thieves in Denver.

Denver police have arrested four suspects accused of unwittingly trying to sell items they stole back to the burglary victim.

[The victim] discovered the items missing at her home on Friday and drove to the parking lot of a nearby fast-food restaurant to report the theft. That's where she says she was approached by two people asking if she wanted to buy a video game set. [She] says she was startled when another person walked up wearing her jacket.

There's more at the link.

Nice of them to make it so easy for the cops, wasn't it?





Peter

The real threat to American internal security

I'm somewhat bemused by the kerfuffle over the apparent 'sniper attack' (it wasn't - true 'snipers' weren't involved) on an electricity sub-station in California last year.  I won't repeat all the details, but these three articles provide the background and some of the speculation, in case you've missed it:

Assault on California Power Station

Raises Alarm on Potential for Terrorism

Snipers Coordinated an Attack on the Power Grid, but Why?

Power Station Sniper

The problem is, none of the articles (or the bureaucrats and politicians pontificating over the issue) have identified the real problem.  That problem can be simply summed up by asking;  what route does water take when it flows?  The answer is easy - it chooses the route that offers the greatest speed of progress for the least effort (normally downhill).  Terrorists do the same thing.  If you erect a monumental security theater performance (a.k.a. the TSA), and invest billions - even trillions - of dollars in allegedly 'safeguarding' high-profile potential targets, terrorists will simply look for easier, more accessible targets, ones that will still cause disruption and inconvenience at best, real economic and political damage at worst.

This power sub-station attack is a classic example.  The perpetrators obviously knew exactly what they were doing.  They selected a target that was insecure and undefended.  They checked it out in advance, identifying the location of all important elements.  They cut the communications lines that would have allowed anyone (or any automated alarms) inside to call for help, then fired over a hundred relatively low-powered rounds of freely-available ammunition at targets that were susceptible to damage from such bullets (ignoring others that weren't).  Finally, they made a clean getaway before responders could arrive.  The weapons used in the attack were probably disposed of shortly after the incident, if the attackers had any sense.  That'll leave very little physical evidence to tie them to the crime.

Much US infrastructure is very vulnerable to such attacks.  Fellow blogger Bob Owens pointed out last year ago how easy it would be for internal dissidents to take out such targets. I'm not blaming him in the least for doing so - it was already obvious to anyone (including yours truly) with even a modicum of training and/or experience in counter-terrorist operations.  Nevertheless, the authorities and electrical utilities have been glacially slow in moving to counter such threats.  It's probably not economically feasible or cost-effective to implement drastic measures, even now.  They would simply cost too much to be affordable.

If water flowing downhill meets an obstacle, it either erodes it away, or fills it up, or finds a way around it, and continues on its merry way.  Even if you build a dam to hold it back, in due course it'll either bring down enough silt to fill the dam, or erode its wall and its foundations.  The same principle applies to terrorists.  They aren't like armies, tied to lines of supply and extensive infrastructure.  As Mao said, "The guerrilla must move amongst the people as a fish swims in the sea".  The sea is water.  Terrorists, like fish, go with the flow.  Fish don't rely on a logistics chain; they get what they need from their environment.  Terrorists don't need huge stockpiles of weaponry;  they may bring a few basic items with them or rely on local acquisition and/or resupply - even improvise weapons from available materials, if necessary.  In the USA firearms are relatively easy to come by, either by buying them locally, or by smuggling them across our unbelievably porous border with Mexico (follow those four links to get an idea of the scale of that problem).  Other supplies, including the ingredients to make explosives, are freely available.  (For example, see terrorist bombings involving home-brewed PETN explosive.)

My greatest fear for American internal security is that a group of hardened, fanatical terrorists might infiltrate this country, then mount a Beslan-style assault on an elementary or middle school.  The odds of success are frighteningly high.  Even in schools with allegedly 'good' security, that's likely to consist of one or two cops with handguns and an access-controlled entryway.  Any halfway competent terrorist group could deal with that sort of 'security' with one hand tied behind their individual and collective backs.  By the time responders arrived in sufficient numbers, and with sufficient weapons, to intervene, the attackers would have taken hundreds of hostages.  Any assault would produce the same results as Beslan.  Such an outcome would shock this country to its core.

Read in full this horrifying account of the Beslan school siege.  It's worth your time and trouble.  Watch some of the video reports about it on YouTube.  When you've done that, ask yourself how Americans would react to something similar happening in their midst.  If anything could lead to a wholesale assault by the 'nanny state' and liberal and progressive forces on our constitutional rights, freedoms and privileges, that would do it.  Many, including myself, would never accept such an outcome, no matter what excuses were used to justify it.  It would mean that whether they lived or died, the terrorists had ultimately won.  They would have succeeded in overthrowing 'truth, justice and the American way'.

That's the true threat of incidents such as the sub-station attack.  It's the thin edge of the wedge, a probing of our perimeter.  We have the internal, modern-day equivalent of what Vietnam veterans used to call 'gooks in the wire'.  We'd better start paying attention . . . or else.

Peter

You folks are the greatest!

I have an awesome group of readers and fans!  I owe you all a big hug.

At the time of writing, less than 24 hours after publication on Amazon.com, 'Adapt and Overcome' has scorched out of nowhere to take these positions:

Amazon Best Sellers Rank: #1,011 Paid in Kindle Store (out of 2,415,245 books currently listed there)

#6 in Books > Science Fiction & Fantasy > Science Fiction > Military
#9 in Kindle Store > Kindle eBooks > Science Fiction & Fantasy > Science Fiction > Military
#10 in Books > Science Fiction & Fantasy > Science Fiction > Space Opera

#48 in Best Sellers - Science Fiction (all genres)
#9 in Best Sellers - Military Science Fiction
#10 in Best Sellers - Space Opera Science Fiction

#21 in Hot New Releases - Science Fiction (all genres)
#6 in Hot New Releases - Military Science Fiction
#7 in Hot New Releases - Space Opera Science Fiction

Those are absolutely fantastic results for the first day of publication, much better than the previous novel in the series - which did pretty well in its own right, as you'll recall.  This is all down to you and your support.  Thanks a million!

I hope the days to come will bring even greater success, to lay a firm foundation for the continuation of the series.  Maxwell Volume 4 is in progress!

(If you've read 'Adapt and Overcome' and like it, please leave a review on its page at Amazon.com.  That will help those who don't know it, or my earlier books, to decide whether to give it a try.)

Peter

'Adapt and Overcome' is published at last!

Thank you all very much for your patience while I worked hard to improve the book.  'Adapt and Overcome' is now available as an e-book on Amazon.com.  A print edition will follow through CreateSpace within a week to ten days - watch this space for a link to it when it becomes available.

Assigned to investigate a deadly accident, Lieutenant Steve Maxwell uncovers corruption and criminal collusion reaching far above his pay grade. To save his career he's dispatched to a distant planet to help upgrade its defense forces, in the company of an old friend and some of the most experienced Marines Steve's ever met – plus one of the most distracting.

Trouble is, the planet's antiquated defenses make its new-found wealth a very tempting target – and there are those planning to take full advantage. As Steve and his colleagues strive to whip a rusty, run-down defense establishment into shape, the clock's running out...

The hard work put in by my beta readers - whom I thank very much - has helped to lift this book to a new level for me.  I'm not saying there's nothing left to improve;  I hope every book I write will be better than the one before, because I want to be the best writer I can be!  It's feedback from beta readers - and from regular readers, too, through your comments at Amazon.com, plus your feedback here and via e-mail - that helps me to improve.

I'm also starting a monthly author e-mail newsletter, which will keep readers of my books updated about the progress of my latest work, provide an article about some aspect of writing, and host give-aways from time to time.  If you'd like to subscribe, there's a link in the sidebar beneath my book listings, and I'll be adding a hot-link to the 'About The Author' page of each e-book.  The first newsletter will come out in early March.

I have two requests, please:

1. If you have your own blog, or are active on social media, please pass the word to your readers that the book is published and available, and (if you see fit) provide a link to its page on Amazon.com.  You can copy this link, or construct your own.  I depend almost entirely on word-of-mouth to help sell my books.  Your help is VERY gratefully appreciated.
2. If you like the book, please leave a review at Amazon.com.  That helps my author rankings there and tells other prospective readers more about it.  Thanks very much!

Maxwell Volume 4 will take Steve into a situation he's never foreseen in his wildest dreams . . . one he's going to have a lot of trouble surviving.  Look for it in July.

Peter

Doofus Of The Day #750

Today's award goes to the imbeciles who dreamed up this stunt, fitting ultra-loud speakers to their vehicle then driving through what looks like an inner-city neighborhood playing the sound of gunfire at high volume.

Do that around me - or any one of dozens of people I know, particularly in areas like mine that contain large numbers of well-armed, self-sufficient people - and your car (and probably you and your passengers as well) will resemble a well-ventilated Swiss cheese before you can say "I was only joking!"  In the average inner-city neighborhood, I'd say the risk of encountering a similar response is not insignificant.  Just ask the residents of any US urban ghetto.





Peter

Stick a fork in the housing market

Last year I wrote several articles about the decline of the US housing market.  I tried to point out that despite all the media hype and upbeat statements by politicians and businessmen, the sector was in dire trouble.

Now The Burning Platform gathers all the latest evidence, puts it all together (including several interesting - and scary - graphs), and comes up with a grim conclusion.  Here's an excerpt.

The report from RealtyTrac last week proves beyond the shadow of a doubt the supposed housing market recovery is a complete and utter fraud. The corporate mainstream media did their usual spin job on the report by focusing on the fact foreclosure starts in 2013 were the lowest since 2007. Focusing on this meaningless fact (because the Too Big To Trust Wall Street Criminal Banks have delayed foreclosure starts as part of their conspiracy to keep prices rising) is supposed to convince the willfully ignorant masses the housing market is back to normal. It’s always the best time to buy!!!

The talking heads reading their teleprompter propaganda machines failed to mention that distressed sales (short sales & foreclosure sales) rose to a three year high of 16.2% of all U.S. residential sales, up from 14.5% in 2012. The economy has been supposedly advancing for over four years and sales of distressed homes are at 16.2% and rising. The bubble headed bimbos on CNBC don’t find it worthwhile to mention that prior to 2007 the normal percentage of distressed home sales was less than 3%. Yeah, we’re back to normal alright. We are five years into a supposed economic recovery and distressed home sales account for 1 out of 6 all home sales and is still 500% higher than normal.

The distressed sales aren’t even close to the biggest distortion of this housing market. The RealtyTrac report reveals that all-cash purchases accounted for 42% of all U.S. residential sales in December, up from 38% in November, and up from 18% in December 2012. Does that sound like a trend of normalization? ... In the pre-crisis days before 2008, all-cash sales NEVER accounted for more than 10% of all home sales. NEVER. This is all being driven by hot Wall Street money, aided and abetted by Bernanke, Yellen and the rest of the Fed fiat heroin dealers.

. . .

Reality will reassert itself in 2014, with lemmings, flippers, and hedgies getting slaughtered as the housing market comes back to earth with a thud.

There's much more at the link.

My conclusions and recommendations?

1. If you're thinking about selling property in the short term, do so NOW, as quickly as possible - and don't haggle too much about the price.  You may get a whole lot less for it if you wait too long.  This goes double if you're relying on the sale of your large family home to fund your retirement.  Before long, it probably won't.
2. If you're thinking about buying property in the short term, DON'T.  I think prices are going to crater over the course of the next year or two.  You'll get much more property for much less money in the not too distant future.
3. If you're underwater on your mortgage right now, consider selling your property at a loss (particularly if you can negotiate a short sale arrangement with the bondholder), so as not to be even further underwater after the crisis hits.  It might take years for the value of your property to recover.
4. Cash is already king in the housing market (read the above article for more information), and will become even more so when credit dries up (as it's certain to do in a housing slump - banks won't want to lend large sums on buildings that are likely to lose value in the short term).  If you have liquid assets, hold on to them, and if you have other assets you can convert to cash, do so.  You'll be well placed to make a killing buying property at fire-sale prices when the crisis hits.

That's my $0.02 worth.  YMMV, and all that sort of thing - but I think the evidence is incontrovertible.

Peter

"7 Ways to Reclaim Your Digital Privacy"

That's the title of a very useful article in Popular Mechanics.  We've spoken about Big Brother, big business and the threat to privacy on many occasions in these pages.  Here are some concrete steps we can take to regain at least a measure of control.

Privacy, we say, is about to come roaring back. No, it's not too late. Yes, we know that Google monetizes both our emails and our search histories. It's true that data brokers market our personal dossiers, listing everything from our favorite blogs to our old parking tickets (identity thieves must love it). And NSA leaker Edward Snowden really did prove the paranoids right: The United States government spies on everyone. Now, we agree that security agencies have a vital responsibility to track terrorists, but that mission can't require all citizens to live in a surveillance state. Feel you have nothing to hide? That assumes the data will always be used to defeat terrorists, not to monitor activists, let alone to stalk ex-girlfriends—yes, NSA employees have done that. Here's the other side to the privacy-is-dead argument. You can fight the privacy erosion that technology has enabled using tools that technology provides. And when you protect your data—using encryption and other tools—you incidentally bolster the argument that security is the norm. At least it should be. Privacy is not dead but simply suffering from neglect. It's your job to revive it.

There's much more at the link.  Very useful and highly recommended.

Peter

They're catching up . . .

Looks like two European nations now have unmanned aerial vehicles that are roughly equivalent in performance to currently active US drones such as the X-47B or the RQ-170.  Late in 2012 Dassault of France flew its Neuron technology demonstrator, and now BAE Systems of Britain has just released a couple of video clips of its Taranis technology demonstrator.  Here's its first flight.

You can see another video clip here, along with more information.

With China also developing stealth drones, and Russia allegedly doing likewise, it looks as if the US lead in the field is slowly being eroded.  It'll be interesting to see what happens over the next ten years or so.

Peter

It's been 55 years since 'The Day The Music Died'

I missed an anniversary yesterday.  On February 3rd, 1959, a light aircraft crashed in Iowa killing musicians Buddy Holly, Ritchie Valens and J. P. Richardson and the pilot, Roger Peterson.  The date became known in music legend as 'The Day The Music Died'.

Don McLean immortalized the event in his song 'American Pie'.  Here's the full version, set to a music video specially created for it in 1989.

I sometimes wonder whether pop and rock music would have evolved differently if they'd lived, and been able to influence it through the 1960's and 1970's.  Would the Beatles, the Rolling Stones and their ilk have made such an impact without the vacuum left by the death of these young men?

Peter

Others agree - we're at the economic tipping point

Last week I asked 'Have we reached the tipping point?' in terms of the economy.  Now it seems other observers are asking the same question - and coming to conclusions much like my own.

First, James Gruber bids us 'Welcome To Phase Three Of The Global Financial Crisis'.  He points out that the emerging market crisis I mentioned last week "show ... that the system based on easy money created by [central] bankers remains deeply flawed and these flaws have been exposed by moves to tighten liquidity in the U.S. and China. The system broke down in 2008, and again in Europe in 2011 and now in EM in 2013-2014".  He goes on to predict:

There are three possible endgames to the current situation:

1. There’s a global deflationary shock where all asset prices fall and fall hard. A la 2008. In this instance, central banks would go in all guns blazing with more money printing on an even grander scale. This would risk inflation if not hyperinflation as faith in currencies is diminished, if not lost.
2. You have a gradual global recovery and inflation stays tame enough for a smooth exit from current policies.
3. There’s a recovery but central banks are slow to raise rates and inflation gallops, which forces tightening and a subsequent economic slowdown.

My bet remains on the first scenario given intensifying deflationary forces from a China economic slowdown and Japan currency debasement (which aids exporters in being more price competitive).

There's more at the link.  Worthwhile reading.

Second, the Kitco Commentary calls this graphic 'The Most Dangerous Chart In The World'.

Last month I warned about the bubble in the stock market, and what was going to happen when it popped. Make no mistake the chart of the S&P is the most dangerous chart in the world. When this parabolic structure collapses, it is going to bring down the global economy.

Here's what we need to watch next week. If the Fed can turn this market around and prevent the S&P from breaking through this intermediate trend line over the next two weeks, then this will turn into just a normal daily cycle correction and will be followed by a fifth daily cycle that should include the melt up phase of this bull market.

If on the other hand the selling pressure overwhelms the plunge protection team's efforts to hold it back and breaks through that intermediate trend line early in the week then we are witnessing the collapse of the parabolic structure and I wouldn't expect it to stop until we reach the 2000 and 2007 previous bull market high support zone.

. . .

You don't need wage growth to have inflation. You just need a central bank to destroy your currency. The Fed has already destroyed our currency. At the moment the inflation is being stored in the stock market, bond market, and echo bubble in the real estate market.

Again, more at the link, along with many more charts to explain the author's points.

If you were wanting a sign of the economic times . . . I think you've got rather more than one right now.  Take heed, and prepare yourselves accordingly.

Peter

A "Squeeee!" of a different kind . . .

I had to laugh at this tale of a passionate piggy in the town of China, Maine.

A ... woman called police Jan. 27 after hearing what she believed to be a fight coming from a home separated by woods just a short distance away. The caller feared she had overheard domestic violence at the home.

. . .

“The homeowner stated her male pig was screaming because he was in a pen with five other female pigs in heat,” according to the police report.

There's more at the link.

I can believe that the boar sounded like a passionate person - I've heard them carry on like that before now.  What I want to know is, was he screaming in delight at being able to work his wicked way with no less than five (literally) hot-to-trot sows . . . or was he screaming because he couldn't handle the advances of all five of them at once?





Peter

Fishy films???

I had to laugh at a collection of somewhat modified film names and posters produced by the Fishfinger Creative Agency.  Here are a few examples.

There are many more at the link.  Funny, and definitely creative!





Peter

Do we really want Detroit everywhere?

I note with extreme displeasure that the United Auto Workers trade union is trying with might and main to unionize the workforce at Volkswagen's plant in Chattanooga, TN.  The process is not without controversy.

I have no objection to trades unions that exist for the legitimate support and protection of their members.  I've been a member of a union myself, and it was of great assistance to me during a very difficult episode at work.  However, the UAW is one of the most corrupt, self-seeking and egregiously grasping unions in the history of such organizations.  You don't have to take my word for it - just do an Internet search on the subject 'UAW corruption' and read the resulting linked resources for yourself.

Many individuals and organizations share the blame for Detroit's current economic woes and infrastructural collapse . . . but the UAW is right up there with all the rest of them, and probably bears more responsibility than most for that mess.  I confidently predict that any city allowing the UAW to unionize its industrial plants has already set its joint and several feet on the same slippery slope.  I can only hope that the organization's current efforts fail, for the sake of the city of Chattanooga and my home state of Tennessee.





Peter

And if the brakes failed?

This is a gutsy demonstration of the braking power of the Leopard 2 tank . . . but it leaves me speechless at the thought of the possible consequences if anything had gone wrong.

Peter

Tired thoughts on the new book

It's been a hectic weekend of formatting and last-minute checking before my new book is published on Amazon.com later this week.  It'll mark the end of a long, challenging and sometimes frustrating learning curve - which will immediately begin all over again, at a higher level, for the next book!

When I sent 'Adapt And Overcome' to beta readers three months ago, I was fairly certain that I had a good story, but I wasn't entirely sure whether my character development was all it could be.  I'd noted comments on Amazon by readers of the first two books in the Maxwell series (I mentioned some of them last weekend in a guest post on Sarah Hoyt's blog), and I'd tried to address issues they raised in the new book, but I was too close to it to be able to look at it objectively.  My beta readers did that for me.  Some liked it pretty much as it was, but others found a great deal that needed improvement.  One in particular sent a very long critique that was invaluable in its level of detail and depth of analysis.

I accordingly decided to postpone publication (which I'd initially intended for the first half of December) until I'd been able to address these issues, and 'raise my game' to a new level.  Early in December I sat down and made detailed notes drawn from Amazon.com reviews, beta reader analysis, and every other source I could think of.  They totaled about 20 pages of things that needed to be addressed.  (A lot of them were single issues that recurred in numerous parts of the book, so that one problem might take two pages of notes to address as I listed every page that needed attention.)

That exercise produced a short list of issues and problems where I needed to do better.  I spent several weeks studying those subjects (I mentioned a couple of useful books in my guest post).  I didn't necessarily agree with all I read, but they gave me good ideas on how to improve in areas where my work appeared to be lacking.  I also used them as a frame of reference to reverse-analyze the critiques from beta readers.  Some criticisms were voiced by only a few;  others by most of the group.  I had to decide which were matters of individual taste, and which reflected real issues I needed to address.  This helped to further refine and whittle down my 20-page 'to do' list.

Finally, at the beginning of January, I sat down and started revising my manuscript.  It took me all month.  It was a bit like pulling teeth sometimes . . . cherished scenes and vignettes had to be ruthlessly discarded, or amended, or even carved up and redistributed to other parts of the book.  I added a couple of new scenes, too.  I think the exercise has been worth it.  I've certainly learned a lot in the process, and I daresay the book is very much better for the extra effort - certainly considerably improved in terms of character development, etc. compared to the first two Maxwell books.  All this hard work will also help me to make subsequent books in the series that much better.

Today I began the final formatting process.  It's a lot easier since I switched to using Microsoft Word, which is the default software and document format used by Amazon.com and other e-publishers for their source documents.  I found an infuriating niggle today.  If one compiles a manual table of contents (TOC), hot-linked to each chapter by bookmarks, it works in MS Word's DOCX format.  However, converting the DOCX file directly to Amazon Kindle's MOBI format did not produce a working, hot-linked TOC - only a list of chapter names that wasn't hot-linked.  Frustrated, I tried using Calibre to convert the DOCX file to an EPUB format e-reader file, and found that the TOC worked fine.  When I then converted that EPUB file to MOBI, it still worked.  Why didn't it work on the single-pass conversion, but did work on the three-cornered format change?  I have no idea!  Technology!  AAARGH!

I'm looking forward to getting this book out there.  I think it's my best work yet.  Now to see whether you agree!  Watch this blog for a publication announcement and link to the book later this week.

Peter

Dogs, cats, offspring - and stairs

I had to laugh at this video of how dogs teach puppies, and cats teach kittens, how to use the stairs.  Watch to the end.

Peter

Doofus Of The Day #749

Today's award goes to the Turkish Special Operations agents who tried . . . and tried . . . and tried to break down the door of a suspect building.

And all captured in glorious Technicolor!





Peter

Around The Blogs 2014-02-01

I've been hard at work on Maxwell Volume 3 this week, so I haven't been able to drop by as many blogs as often as I'd like.  Even so, several articles caught my eye.

# # #

XBradTC has one of the Budweiser Super Bowl advertisements, 'A Hero's Welcome', plus a 'making of' featurette.  Interesting - even though I'm afraid that, to my palate, Budweiser tastes like it should be poured back into the horses they feature so proudly!  (I was brought up on German-style lagers and pilseners.  To me, most mass-produced American beers taste faintly of soap . . . )

# # #

PDB opines that "being able to hit a dip can as far away as one can see a dip can is a pretty decent test of rifle and shooter".  For those who don't have dip cans to hand, he provides a printable target with five dip-can-size circles.  I'm going to have to try my hand at that.

# # #

Francis Porretto examines the lack of respect by government for the rights of individuals, and points out:  "Whether it goes by licensure, permittage, or any other name, the imposition of State selectivity upon the exercise of one's rights is merely a back-door method for denying those rights."  True, that.

# # #

Captain Capitalism points out 'How the Federal Reserve is Jesus Christ'.  He's not trying to be blasphemous, I think, so much as pointing out how the Fed is regarded with blind faith by Keynesian 'true believers', who intercede with it as fervently as people of faith do with God.  Funny, but also a telling commentary on the state of economic knowledge and wisdom (or the lack thereof) in this country.

# # #

Paul Caron, better known as TaxProf, comments on 'Law’s Long Bitter Descent and its Tragic Human Toll'.  He points out that "... the legal world’s traditional business model is done. Decimated. Dead. It is NOT coming back ... without massive industry-wide changes – practicing law won’t be rewarding for MOST of the people jumping into the fray."  Sobering thoughts for those in that profession - and those who use their services.

# # #

The Two-Way Blog at NPR reports that the man behind Oregon's infamous 'exploding whale' of 1970 has died.

Oregon highway engineer George Thornton, who in 1970 led an operation to blow up a dead beached whale with half a ton of dynamite, died this week at age 84. Thornton's decision resulted in a foul shower of whale blubber...

There's more at the link, including an edited, sharpened, cleaned-up version of TV footage of the massive explosion and the falling chunks of blubber.  They caused an impressive amount of damage to spectators' cars.

# # #

Jeff Soyer reports that a New Zealand school tried abolishing all the petty rules and restrictions governing kids during playtime - and was very pleasantly surprised by the results.  Now, if we could just get our 'Nanny State' school authorities over here to do likewise . . .

# # #

Daniel Greenfield points out that 'The Solution Is The Problem'.

The problem with our problems is usually their solution. If we were to take a closer look at many of our problems, it would turn out that many of them are actually solutions that were meant to solve those very problems. Our War on Poverty has spread poverty. Our attempts at fighting racism have perpetuated it. Our campaigns for energy efficiency invariably waste more energy than they save.

We tried promoting populism to solve terrorism in the Middle East and got even more terrorism for our troubles. The more resources we put into education, the more the educational system runs backward. Every attempt at creating jobs seems to vaporize more jobs than it creates.

Solving problems isn't a bad thing, but the place to start is at the problem, not the solution.

There's more at the link.  Thought-provoking and highly recommended reading.

# # #

Finally, a liberal moonbat postulated at Tor.com (a science fiction publishing house) that:

I want an end to the default of binary gender in science fiction stories ... Post-binary gender in SF is the acknowledgement that gender is more complex than the Western cultural norm of two genders (female and male): that there are more genders than two, that gender can be fluid, that gender exists in many forms.

My friend Larry Correia was utterly unable to resist the temptation to fisk this drivel all the way there and back again.  He went on a magnificent rant, demolishing the opposition left, right and center.  They then made the mortal error of trying to wear him down, which gave him the opportunity for an even more humiliating smackdown.  You'd think they'd have learned not to aggravate the big man by now, but no, apparently they haven't.

I love that guy . . .

# # #

That's all for this week.

Peter

"The Duel at Blood Creek"

I came across this short movie on YouTube.  It's a great send-up of the whole dueling sub-culture of centuries past, and I thought you'd enjoy it as much as I did.  Watch it in full-screen mode for the best effect.

Talk about a holocaust of understanding . . .

Peter