... certainly in economic terms, that is.
In recent months I've had an occasional e-mail from Amazon to inform me that one of our monthly "Subscribe & Save" items will be delayed. Usually there's no reason given; it might be that there's a shortage of supply, or a delay on the delivery side, or whatever. I can't recall getting any of them prior to last year. However, this month I suddenly got no less than three of them in one day, advising that the majority of our S&S orders would be delayed this month. I've never had that before. I've no idea why so many were affected this month, but it's a sign that something's not right.
Another thing about Amazon. We're Prime members, meaning our orders are supposed to reach us within two working days. More and more often we're finding that they take three or four days, or even a week or more - and Amazon is quite unapologetic about it. When we place an order, we've learned to look hard at the promised delivery date, because quite often it'll show a longer period than it should be under Prime shipping. I'm seriously considering canceling our Prime membership. The only reason we have it is to take advantage of prompt and speedy shipping, and if that's no longer guaranteed, why spend over $100 a year on it? Walmart and other suppliers can take up the slack quite adequately, and Walmart's Plus membership is looking better and better by comparison.
Spare parts are another example. I'm waiting for one for my vehicle. It was ordered a couple of weeks ago, and supposed to get to the dealership overnight. Instead, two weeks later, we're still waiting, and the manufacturer can't tell us when they'll have more parts to send. Fortunately it's not a critical part, so I can carry on using my vehicle, but if it were more important, I'd be without one until it arrived.
There are shortages, delays and difficulties all over the place in business and commerce, and they're getting worse, not better. How are you finding it, dear readers? Please let us know in Comments, so we can get a better feel for whether this is a general problem, and if so, how widespread it's become.
Peter
32 comments:
As a prepper for many years I don't seem to be psychologically prepared for the future. I've known this is all coming but it is so disheartening to see it really happening. Every day brings a new revelation as we incrementally slide toward the abyss.
The stupids are in charge and as with most stupid people they are certain of their course. Nothing will turn them.Our immediate future looks like what South Africa is experiencing right now, and after that, eel who knows.
My neighbor's a mechanic, he said don't get in any accidents right now, some parts are up to 6-months out.
2 S&S delays here. too.
Some Amazon waste is self-induced. From a center 22 miles west of me the items are shipped to another 20 miles east of me and passing me by interstate exit 3 minutes away. From there, eastward, the items come back to me, traveling 62 miles for a 22 mile trip.
UPS, next door to the westward Amazon, comes straight from there to me without passing me to go eastward to their other terminal.
Spare anything is questionable right now... 2 years of no parts/spares being built, in addition to nothing new being built has killed the JIT pipeline.
Canceled Amazon Prime, buying locally or direct from manufacturer. Last straws were constant delays in delivery and an email from Amazon saying “I saved $ in shipping” with amount being less than the monthly Prime fee.
When the wife and I do buy from Amazon about half the packages are being delivered by USPS or UPS, not by Amazon drivers.
Yeah. other than books I can count on one finger the last 2 dozen things I ordered from Amazon that got here in 2 days. Average is currently 4 with some median at 10-14 days.
I cancelled my prime two years ago. I don't see any difference. I really rarely need something in two days. And it often was two "business days". Essentially 3-4 days. Plus I enjoy them begging me to rejoin every time I order. Go ahead. Cancel it.
1) Younger Daughter's car was in a fender-bender in Jan. '22. It was undriveable, and didn't get repaired until August '22, when the final parts finally arrived.
2) I was notified yesterday that a Subscribe-and-Save Amazon item can't be shipped to my current address, because of "a problem". It has arrived here every four months for nearly two years, but suddenly can't be shipped to the same address. (Note: a similar part, for only $15 more, is somehow available for shipping.) I smell a very large rat.
3) A number of Amazon shipments have been unaccountably delayed for days or weeks, starting last November. Or reported delivered with no actual sign of the product in question. Or reported as delivered the day before they actually make it to our mailbox.
I could go on, but why beat a dead horse?
My VA meds are delayed told maybe coming in April.
i deal with a fleet of vehicles and yes, there are major shortages in vehicle parts...each car maker has certain parts that tend to break/stop working and those parts are getting harder to get at times...sucks...noticed the same thing with prime...even with a business account it's not always next day/2 day shipping...still seeing shortages at the grocery store...the last year or more it was usually the same things now you never know what may be missing this week on the shelf...
This last 6 months or so deliveries from Amazon have gotten much worse. FedEx and UPS deliveries aren't too bad, maybe a day delay, sometimes two. But anything shipped USPS is a total crap shoot. Had one order for Christmas that just went AWOL. 3 weeks later had to cancel and reorder. Stuff gets left at the side of the long driveway, or at the neighbor's house or sometimes to the house. Part of it is USPS is farming out some of the last mile stuff to third party folks and they are generally terrible. I want to send Amazon a note saying don't use USPS but can't figure out how to. I will probably end up cancelling prime because it just doesn't deliver the promised service anymore.
As soon as my Prime membership expires, that's it for me. What frosts me the most is when you are given several choices for the same item you want, and you decide to pay the extra buck to a vendor because it will get there overnight - and it doesn't arrive until several days later. The Prime streaming service is useless now too, because most of the things I would want to watch are now handled by FreeVee (with commercials, of course).
I bought a parts truck to back up my daily driver. So far I've mostly moved convenience parts, some push buttons, etc. and a door handle. 20yo truck only has 130K on it, but plastic stuff is failing. The parts truck has 230K so I'll buy new if I can but if I can't, or wear isn't an issue, it's coming off my parts truck.
I have a feeling that a lot of sales are going to move to the secondary or informal marketplace- auction sites, person to person sales either thru apps or in person at yard/estate/garage sales, farmers markets, swap meets, car boot sales, etc., neighborhood bodegas, outlet stores and the various second hand places.
If you've never moved in that world, you should start getting some practice in. Do a lot of paying attention. Do people counteroffer/haggle? Do women pay or are they always accompanied by men? How are people dressed? Are they taking cash, or some sort of smartphone payment? (Cash is king in these places, generally.) Do they count out change, actual coins? (good indicator that people are living close to the bone, don't make yourself a target.)
Drive around and find out where the informal markets are in your AOR. You might be very surprised by the scale of commerce just outside your normal purview.
And consider the flip side, do you have anything to sell? Where would you sell it? Time to practice.
n
When this BS started with Prime I filed a complaint, asking that very question why the heck should I pay the extra money for prime when delivery dates are not honored? I got a comp of like 8 bucks once or twice. Now if I happen to say something it's basicly ignored or I get some pithy answer that it's out of their control. I am canceling my subscription too at this point, I don't order enough items to even make BC orders (before covid) worthwhile and while the shows are nice I don't really care that much to be bothered.
Absolutely cancel Prime. They changed the game from "2 day delivery" to "2 days from when they get around to shipping it" which kills the value unless you watch a lot of "Prime Video"
Instead from Amazon, add stuff to your Subscribe and Save list. Get one pile of crap once a month, then cancel the S&S stuff before they ship it a 2nd time. You save on the stuff you get compared to normal, and lead times don't change that much compared to ordering otherwise.
As others have said, shop other sources for things. Many times things that are available from Amazon are cheaper through other vendors even if shipping isn't "free".
On the flip side, the company I work for is a distributor and service center for a German hydraulics manufacturer. They have invested a LOT of money over the past 8 years increasing USA manufacturing capacity. Lead times are 10 weeks from them vs 20 (standard) or 25-50+ (long) from competitors. It is very common in my industry for lead times to be over 20 weeks and with the recent acquisition of Eaton Hydraulics by Danfoss lead times are a complete joke and have no relation to reality.
We've been waiting three months for a dishwasher part. It doesn't matter if the washer (or anything else) is better quality and highly recommended if it can't be fixed in a timely fashion when something goes wrong.
ditto in Boise
I know an arborist / tree-trimmer. They have a crawler-lift to get at trees they can't climb safely, and can't get to with a normal cherry-picker. It has a part made in Italy. Usable, but w/o it it's suboptimal. They've are out here in the states, first one sent didn't make it through customs, got sent back. Next one sent is "still in transit" and has been for a month.
Yeah, don't break anything. Stock up. Do your preventative maintenance.
Oh, and I got UPS "shipping delayed due to weather" notice for the first time ever today.
let us know if Walmart works out
Haven't been having any trouble with my Prime deliveries, UPS, or USPS. Fed Ex has really been screwing up lately, though. 3 or 4 days in a row I'll get emails saying "Your package will arrive tomorrow." Then maybe one false flag that "Your package is coming today". Eventually they get here, but relying n their emails as to when it will be is an exercise in futility.
I dumped Amazon post-election because of their blatantly political stance. I started using Wal-Mart instead.
A few months ago, Wally started a 'local delivery' policy. If an item you order online is at the local store, it will be delivered from there...by a local person, who takes a picture of your house with the item. And then they send you the picture via email.
Not gonna lie, it was pretty damn weird. Spooky, if you're conspiratorily-minded.
So yeah, don't pay for prime. Especially as a fellow old guy. We should be used to this. Remember 'Allow 6-8 weeks' for the cool stuff as a kid? Are there any NTM customers here? They had up to three months shipping delay, and only after you've paid in full.
Anticipation is one of the joys of life.
We live in an area where Amazon doesn't deliver directly, and I find it better than relatives who have it directly - delivery times are more consistent and package condition is better.
Prime means that I don't have to worry about paying for shipping on what I ordered and I can watch what they offer on the internet.
Things not available and longer shipping times are just as much a part of today as punishing wrong thought is. It's a very different world than it was not too long ago.
We've noticed the same erratic delivery of items ordered. Another thing - about ten years ago, I was offered the opportunity to be a Vine reviewer: they would provide items that I chose from a list, and send it to me for the price of a review. This saved us a lot, in doing house renovations - we got light fixtures and quality doorknobs, small kitchen appliances, and an absolute bundle in baby items for Wee Jamie, the wonder grandson. Strollers, rockers, a crib, baby clothes ... they really had a wide array of items for the choosing, all for the price of a review (And the tax value of the items is noted for filing income taxes.) But in the last three or four months, the list of available items has shrunk to practically nothing. Some of the things that we asked for were obviously returns - slightly damaged package, etc. There is a huge disruption going on at Amazon, that's for certain.
In the last two weeks, four out of seven Fedex packages have been misdelivered The Asian person who took the “help” call was unconcerned. One overnight package has been misdelivered three times.
Covid has taught service providers that they can get away with poor service.
I work for a company that makes products you would buy on the health and beauty aids isle at a department store or pharmacy. We have 9 production lines in my plant. I can count on one hand the number of times all have run at once in the last year with lines waiting for either ingredients for our products and packaging materials
Had to order some gfci breakers recently (only one local shop had them, and they were asking over $100 premium per unit than Amazon), and the Amazon supplier only had 6 in stock, supposedly. Ordered 4 and was supposed to receive next day shipment. They were delivered in four separate shipments over day 3, 4, and 5. Not sure how efficient that was, and definitely not prime worthy.
No Amazon problems here, but then they moved one of their distribution centers into a former Costco (which had moved) near where I live.
Speaking of Costco, they finally had the cartons of egg whites in stock. Managed to get one of the last ones.
quit Amazon now, order direct or find another way, any way, Amazon is the Merchant arm of the Satanists currently in Power
You can ask your bride what we in Alaska have to put up with shipping things up here. We have saved a ton ordering through Prime. All the things complained about we had before Amazon Prime. So for us it’s worth it.
JFM
Have seen subscriptions that have no future date. Prepping for years, buying sandbags now, fear the worst.
Recommend Dollar Stores for things you need everyday. Stockpile now.
It's becoming the norm here in the UK too. What really irritates me is the 'out for delivery' messages followed late on that day by 'to be delivered tomorrow'.
Like you, 'subscribe and save' has become more like 'cross your fingers, hope and see'. I wonder have Amazon stretched themselves too far.
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