Sunday, March 1, 2009

An Arctic expedition worth making


The Catlin Arctic Survey got under way yesterday, February 28th. It'll be a mammoth effort by the three participants, but should produce very valuable scientific information. Their start point is shown by the marker 'A' on this map. It looks like it's in the middle of the sea, but that's solid ice at this time of year, so don't worry!




The biggest problem with the whole 'global warming' alarmism is that hard evidence is very scanty. Everything's been built on mathematical models that have been demonstrated to be very inaccurate. The Catlin survey hopes to measure the thickness of Arctic ice from the edges of the ice pack right up to the North Pole, using a sled-mounted ice-penetrating radar and other equipment. We know the Arctic ice has been melting and re-forming more rapidly than usual, although sources differ as to how severe the problem is. Trouble is, the area covered by the ice isn't the most important factor. What matters most is the thickness of the ice. To have the same area covered by ice only a few centimeters thick, versus dozens or scores or hundreds of meters thick, makes a vast difference. The Catlin survey will establish precisely how deep the ice runs, and thereby help us to make a better determination of how badly global warming - or cooling - is affecting the Arctic.

The BBC reports:

Renowned Arctic explorer Pen Hadow and two companions were dropped onto the ice by plane 800km (500 miles) off the northern coast of Canada on Saturday.

During their 1,000km journey they plan to take measurements of the thickness of the ice.

It will be the most detailed survey of its kind this season, and should be completed in late May.

Global warming

BBC environment correspondent David Shukman said that where there were gaps in the ice, the team would put on survival suits and swim.

At the rear of one sledge is a mobile radar unit which will constantly measure the thickness of the ice.

Satellites have shown how the area of Arctic sea-ice has been shrinking in recent years, but this expedition should give scientists a better idea of how thin the ice is becoming.

The sea-ice is widely believed to be melting at an increased rate because of warmer air temperatures above the ice and because of warmer waters below it. The major scientific institutions and agencies that study the Arctic attribute the changes to global warming.

Only a few years ago, researchers predicted that by the end of this century the Arctic could be free of ice in summer. Some now say that could come far sooner.

Mr Hadow, 46, and the other members of the British Catlin Arctic Survey group, Ann Daniels, 44, and Martin Hartley, 40, will attempt to gather important new data about the state of the ice in winter and early spring - when the ice reaches its greatest extent.

It is intended to give scientists the very latest "ground truth", to better constrain their models and their interpretation of the observations coming from satellites.

Arctic ice modeller Professor Wieslaw Maslowski, a science adviser to the survey, hopes the data will enable him to refine his forecast of when the first ice-free summer might arrive.

Currently, he has it down for 2013 - but with an uncertainty range between 2010 and 2016.


There's much more at the link.

This video from the World Wildlife Fund explains the objectives of the survey.





The following two videos demonstrate the survival suits the survey team will use. They're designed to allow them to swim across open areas of water in the Arctic without dying of exposure.








Michael Gorman discusses the radar that will be used to measure the thickness of the ice.





The expedition leader, Pen Hadow, explains the importance of the Polar ice-cap.





You can follow the progress of the expedition on their Web site, complete with photographic, blog and video updates. Should be interesting!

Peter

5 comments:

Crucis said...

This appears to be Global Warming Advocate Plan "B." Plan "A" was a satellite to measure increases in CO2. That one didn't achieve a stable orbit and came down in Anartica.

The satellite photos that "supposedly" measured shrinking Arctic ice was taken during ( *Drumroll* ) spring and summer.

The Old Man said...

The lads will keep attempying to cook the books until something sticks. Until then, our unseasonably cold weather is due to AGW....

Peter said...

I think perhaps you're being a little unfair to the expedition. I'm with you: the eco-weenies have been trying to panic us for years about climate change, and they continue to do so. However, this expedition will be investigating actual conditions on the ground - hard scientific fact, not someone's 'mathematical model' or 'computer projection'. It'll produce actual measurements, not pie-in-the-sky.

Given that, it'll either prove what some of the eco-weenies have been alleging, or demolish their arguments. I think either way, we win. We'll know something hard, concrete, on which to base future projections. I guess that's why sponsors include the US Navy, which regards the Arctic as a potential theater of war, and wants the facts very badly indeed!

I don't get the impression that this is an eco-weenie scam. I think it'll produce really useful information.

Old NFO said...

I will be surprised if they all survive. We've had to rescue more than a few idjits up there... Also, depending on their track, and the ice movement, they may be near the same patch of ice the entire transit... Not really scientific. Both the US and the Soviets did extensive ice research up there through at least 1992 that I know of. At -60, you literally have less than a minute before things start freezing.

Wayne Conrad said...

Actual data? Hooray!

I've been disappointed by the claims of pseudo-skeptics that all is fine because the extent of the ice is the same as before. If area is all that matters, then allow me to shave your gold coins to half their thickness. You won't miss what I take since they have the same extent.

Unfortunately, it's not the claims of thoughtful skeptics that get the press or the air time on talk radio. It's the blow-hards, mostly. And it makes the skeptical community as a whole look like idiots.

I have to wonder if the proponents of AGW have the same problem going on as do the skeptics of it. Are there scientists in the AGW camp, doing well reasoned and careful work whose conclusions are stated with all the caution due real science, and yet the loudmouths get all the press? Are the real scientists rolling their eyes every time Al Gore opens his mouth?