Regular readers will know that for years, I've predicted that the failing states in the Union - failing because of their feckless, fiscally inept and terminally greedy politicians, plus the cronies to whom they pour out largesse from the state budget - are going to demand that the federal government bail them out, and assume responsibility for their catastrophically large, otherwise unpayable debts, deficits and overheads.
I was right.
As I reported last week, Illinois Democrats have asked for over $41 billion in financial aid, ostensibly related to the costs of the coronavirus pandemic, but in reality specifically earmarked to make up the shortfall in state pension funding, pay off the state's deficit, and basically cover their overspending for the past decade or two. The money has little or nothing to do with the coronavirus, but everything to do with ensuring that their past misdeeds are paid for by the taxpayers of the entire United States, not just those in Illinois. What's more, you and I know full well that if they succeed, they won't change their spendthrift ways. Within a few years, they'll have dug themselves into yet another fiscal hole, and demand to be bailed out yet again - citing this bailout as precedent.
If you want to know some of the facts underlying Illinois' predicament, read this article.
Our analysis at OpenTheBooks.com shows that an Illinois family of four now owes more in unfunded pension liabilities ($76,000) than they earn in household income ($63,585). In a state of 13 million residents, every man, woman, and child owes $19,000 — on an estimated $251 billion pension liability.
Our auditors discovered 110,000 public employees and retirees who earned more than $100,000 last year.
We found tree trimmers in Chicago making $106,663; nurses at state corrections earning up to $277,100; junior college presidents making $491,095; university doctors earning up to $2 million; and 111 small town managers who out-earned every governor of the 50 states ($202,000).
There's more at the link.
It's becoming clear that almost every state and major city that's in similar self-inflicted dire straits is hoping for a similar bailout. Democrats are demanding it; Republicans are pushing back.
Democratic leaders on Tuesday doubled down on their demand for $500 billion in aid to states to help with the coronavirus crisis while rejecting a suggestion by Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell that some struggling states may need to declare bankruptcy.
“Right now the House is hard at work for the next bill CARES 2, which must contain robust funding for state and local government to pay frontline workers,” House Speaker Nancy Pelosi, D-Calif., said in a call with reporters. “Governors and mayors, Republicans and Democrats, are crying out for support.”
. . .
"In terms of funding we may have two packages, one for states and one for locals," Pelosi said. Later she clarified: “It looks like we’re going to need 500 [billion] for the states and we may also need a very big figure for counties and municipalities."
. . .
On Monday, President Trump appeared open to signing such a bill, but also asked why taxpayers should bail out “poorly run states.”
“Why should the people and taxpayers of America be bailing out poorly run states (like Illinois, as example) and cities, in all cases Democrat run and managed, when most of the other states are not looking for bailout help?” Trump tweeted Monday. “I am open to discussing anything, but just asking?”
Again, more at the link.
New York City is trying to get in on the act as well.
The word “absurd” doesn’t even begin to describe this ridiculous demand by New York City Mayor Bill de Blasio as he publicly says he wants the federal government to replace all of the missing revenue from the COVID-19 economic shut-down. This is bonkers.
If the federal government was to even consider taking such action it would essentially be promoting all states and cities to remain shut-down forever; because, in the mind of those who live from the government trough, there would be no need to reopen. The mental disconnect here is incredible. I think the needle on my ‘nope-meter‘ just broke off.
While private citizens, private companies and private workers are forced –by government– to remain locked in their homes; unable to earn a living and on the cusp of financial despair, or face arrest; the NYC Mayor wants the government system and workers to be isolated from any economic impact via a federal bailout.
Sundance, blogging at The Last Refuge, believes this is part of a deliberate wider strategy by Democrat-controlled cities and states to prolong the economic impact of the pandemic for as long as possible, hoping that the misery it inflicts will bring them votes in November. It's hard to disagree with him. Bold, underlined text below is my emphasis.
It is being reported the San Francisco Bay area will remain in a state of forced lock-down with an extension of the stay-at-home orders throughout May. Considering this is the home of Speaker Nancy Pelosi,… this decision highlights an expectation that the federal government will bail out local and state governments.
We anticipated this type of approach where Blue states & Blue regions will keep their economies closed as long as possible to inflict maximum political damage. Simply, if San Francisco were not confident they will gain a federal bailout they would not be keeping their economic system closed for another entire month.
. . .
It is likely that Democrat governors and Democrats in the House have organized a specific media allied approach to demand the federal bailout. There is simply no way any state or local region would remain shut down unless they were confident of funding.
Any bailout would only help the local and state government. It would not help the private sector, or private sector workers. By using federal taxpayer funds to replace missing tax revenue, the Blue states/regions would be protecting their own big government ideology.
The three step plan seems predictable:
This is going to be one hell of a battle.
- Get out ahead of President Trump.
- Defy the ‘all clear’ and shape economic benefit to their political allies.
- Then use Fauci’s upcoming dossier to hit the administration for heartlessly opening the economy too early.
Essentially we are looking at a Spring and Summer conflict, an economic civil war between Blue states/regions and Red states/regions.
More at the link.
Essentially, many state and local governments are using the pandemic as an excuse to suspend constitutional rights and liberties, and govern by decree. They're now trying to extend that to the federal government as well, by making it dance to their fiscally irresponsible tune. As the American Spectator points out, "Now that officials have learned they can suspend our civil liberties by edict, expect such “emergency” measures any time there’s another crisis, real or perceived." I expect that'll apply to bailouts as well.
I don't think those agitating for a federal bailout, using the economic misery generated by the pandemic as a lever to apply pressure, have thought this through. If their residents find that government largesse is no longer flowing (at least in the amounts they want); and if they believe (or have been told, loudly and repeatedly, by their politicians) that they're entitled to such largesse; then they're going to get out of control and try to take what they want. The results are likely to be catastrophic for law and order, and civil society.
I think the ordinary people of America realize this. After all, that's why they bought more guns in March than any other month in previous US history. They're getting ready to defend what's theirs - and I believe they're right in anticipating the need to do so. Again, bold, underlined text is my emphasis.
"Simply put: I wanted peace of mind when it comes to the safety of my family," Eaton said.
. . .
"To me, it's all about protecting my family, and if a gun makes that easier, so be it," Scott, a California tech worker with a wife and daughter, said.
Many of the new gun owners cited concerns about personal protection as states began emptying jail cells and police departments announced they would no longer enforce certain laws. Jake Wilhelm, a Virginia-based environmental consultant and lacrosse coach, purchased a Sig Sauer P226 after seeing Italy enact a nationwide lockdown on March 9.
"[My fiancée and I] came to the conclusion in early March that if a nation like Italy was going into full lockdown, we in the U.S. were likely on the same path," Wilhelm said. "Given that, and knowing that police resources would be stretched to the max, I decided to purchase a handgun."
. . .
"I think a lot of people were afraid of exactly what's happening now," Viden said. "They're afraid if it continues to go on longer, things are going to get worse."
. . .
The fear extended past the disease to how communities would bear the strain of job loss, lockdown orders, and law enforcement policies adopted in the wake of the spread. One Tampa inmate who was released over coronavirus concerns has now been accused of murder, according to the Tampa Bay Times. Brian, a 40-year-old living near Tampa, lost his full-time bartending job in March but was concerned enough about deteriorating public safety that he dipped into his savings to purchase a Smith & Wesson M&P Shield.
"My biggest fear is that our local police force comes down with the virus," he said. "If the good guys are all out sick, who is going to stop the bad guys? When people have no hope, they get desperate. And we fear the worst is to come."
More at the link.
You want to know why my friends want me to upgrade their rifles? You want to know why I've been warning about COVID-19 as a threat to personal security, and suggesting ways to keep your shooting skills honed, even during the lockdown? You want to know why I wrote my recent three article series about personal defense rifles? Look no further. To quote a sixties trope, "You don't need a weatherman to know which way the wind blows." As I pointed out a few weeks ago, the grasshoppers are already coming after the ants.
I expect that problem to become exponentially worse during the next two to three months. Other observers are even more pessimistic than I am. (Try this one as an example: "The economy is dead on arrival, the pin to the grenade has already been pulled, the majority of Americans simply don't realize it yet.")
I don't think it's going to be as bad as that, but it's certainly going to be a very difficult few years ahead. I can only hope and pray that the worst expectations and predictions are wrong.
Peter
12 comments:
Even if the GOP holds the line against this, and expect it to morph to "For the chiiiiiilren!" soon, the avalanche to financial collapse has started.
It is too late for the pebbles to vote.
Yeah... I've been saying for years that if States are allowed to file for bankruptcy, they need to be reorganized under responsible adult supervision.
Also, in such cases some creative application of Article IV, Section 4 might be in order.
I have to wonder about the Chicago/Illinois earnings quoted. When I worked at the Home Depot warehouse they put out a thing telling us what we made with all the extras & it was a lot of money! I didn't see or use the "extras" so all I saw was what was in my paycheck & that was not even close to what they said they were paying for my services.
I suspect that the dollar value we see for a nurse that is making over a quarter of a million dollars a year has a LOT of value added by the people doing the writing & that nurse is making far less money than that.
It's like all the libs WANT to see hyperinflation.
Don in Oregon
@Unknown:
DUH. Cloward-Piven.
I'm ok with this as long as the politicians who vote for it have skin in the game. Namely that they will be put to death for voting for it. Probably would stop and make them think that taking the fruits of someone else’s labour to pay off your buddies is a bad thing. The best thing is that after they are out to death they can't vote for any other crap ideas, well except the Chicago guys.
Spin Drift
Kosh you magnificent b4stard! I read your book!
The penalty for vote fraud needs to be increased to "death". We need to start having mass arrests of politicians for "violation of rights under color of law". Anything less is essentially pointless.
Those on the Left have neither a conscience nor a sense of shame. To them, there is only power.
smoken: ROFL. I was wondering if someone would pick up on that.
If you ever look at my blog you'll see I start my essays with "And so I begin..." which is a take-off on Kosh as well.
As for the figures being inflated by benefits being counted in, possible. However, a retiree has access to Medicare, which provides a reasonable level of health care. The only ones that won't qualify for paid-for Part A is someone who never held a job that required him/her to pay Social Security taxes - i.e., public employees, who in 14 union states decided to opt out of SS.
Their bad. They should have to suck up either paying for their health care costs at a higher rate (less from the state's contribution), or pay the extra for Part A.
Also, many Public Employee pension plans have formulas that allow near-retirees to work nearly non-stop in the 3-5 year period, collecting overtime and inflating their eventual monthly check - for the rest of their life.
ALL of them - except for the lowest 10% or so - need to take a cut - 20% sounds about right. It will hurt, but allow them to understand just how much their crap has hurt the taxpayer. Or, cap the top amount paid to 125% of the average pension - which, actually, I like better. That way, it stops the hogs from sucking all the money out, and risking the pensions of the bottom half.
Now Komiefornia is in on it as of yesterdays reading.
There is a simple solution to this: Give 100% of the state-requested bailout money to the citizens of the state, then allow the state to confiscate the money provided to the citizens through taxation. If the people of these states feel that the government deserves to reallocate their money to former government employees, they can happily hand it over and enjoy living in the paradise they have created for themselves.
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