Wednesday, April 19, 2023

Technology's fine, as long as it works...

 

Underlining the vulnerability of the world's food supply is this news from Australia.  A tip o' the hat to Andrew for the link.


Tractors have ground to a halt in paddocks across Australia and New Zealand because of a signal failure in the satellite farmers use to guide their GPS-enabled machinery, stopping them from planting their winter crop.

The satellite failure on Monday was a bolt from the blue for farmers in NSW and Victoria, who were busy taking advantage of optimal planting conditions for crops including wheat, canola, oats, barley and legumes.

“You couldn’t have picked a worse time for it,” said Justin Everitt, a grain grower in the Riverina who heads NSW Farmers’ grains committee.

. . .

Tractors that pull seed-planting machinery, as well as the massive combine harvesters that reap Australia’s vast grain crops, are high-tech beasts that can cost hundreds of thousands of dollars.

They are enabled with GPS tracking and can be guided to an accuracy within two centimetres, enabling seed-planting equipment to sow crops with precision to drive up efficiency, prevent wastage and boost environmental sustainability.

All that went out the window when the Inmarsat-41 satellite signal failed.

Katie McRobert, general manager at the Australia Farm Institute, said Australian farmers sourced their GPS signal from one satellite, which was a critical risk to rural industries.

“Having all your GPS eggs in one basket is a vulnerability on a good day, and a fatal weakness on a bad one,” McRobert said.

. . .

“This is crippling for the farm community,” Groves said ... “GPS is our guidance system that eliminates overlapping [in rows of seeds] and over-application of chemicals, and when that system is down, the machine is literally down.

“My planter is 32 rows wide; if I overlap by just two rows, that is 4 per cent I am losing out on. When you’re paying $1300 [a tonne] for fertiliser, that really adds up very quickly.

“My crop sprayer relies on the GPS signal to tell the spray unit how much chemical to put on, where it is in the paddock and how many nozzles it needs working.”

There is no indication when the problem will be fixed.


There's more at the link.

Australia and, to a lesser extent, New Zealand are critical agricultural suppliers to the rest of the world.  If their planting is impacted, so will be their harvest, and the availability of food for export.

Couple that news with the the latest on the world rice harvest.


From China to the U.S. to the European Union, rice production is falling and driving up prices for more than 3.5 billion people across the globe, particularly in Asia-Pacific – which consumes 90% of the world’s rice.

The global rice market is set to log its largest shortfall in two decades in 2023, according to Fitch Solutions.

And a deficit of this magnitude for one of the world’s most cultivated grains will hurt major importers, analysts told CNBC.

“At the global level, the most evident impact of the global rice deficit has been, and still is, decade-high rice prices,” Fitch Solutions’ commodities analyst Charles Hart said.

. . .

There’s a short supply of rice as a result of the ongoing war in Ukraine, as well as bad weather in rice-producing economies like China and Pakistan.

In the second half of last year, swaths of farmland in the world’s largest rice producer China were plagued by heavy summer monsoon rains and floods. 

The accumulated rainfall in the country’s Guangxi and Guangdong province, China’s major hubs of rice production, was the second highest in at least 20 years, according to agriculture analytics company Gro Intelligence.

Similarly, Pakistan — which represents 7.6% of global rice trade — saw annual production plunge 31% year-on-year due to severe flooding last year, said the U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA), labeling the impact as “even worse than initially expected.”


Again, more at the link.

The world's food supply is under dire threat due to all sorts of circumstances, as has been pointed out by national and international organizations for the past couple of years.  These latest developments make the food security situation all the more difficult, particularly for Asian nations that are utterly dependent on rice as the staple food for their populations.  They're going to bid up the price of any food they can get their hands on to ridiculously high levels, rather than have their people starving and rising in revolt against their governments.  That, in turn, means exports of food to the USA will be under extreme stress.

Got preps?

Peter


23 comments:

Peteforester said...

"Embrace the technology, they said... "It'll be FUN," they said...

“Having all your GPS eggs in one basket..." THAT is where you went wrong, mate!

Michael said...

Something to think about.

I looked up the food packing codes on some Walmart GV white rice and GV dry pinto beans this week.

They were packaged one or TWO Years ago. Most canned goods are at least 6 months old.

We are eating from the last two years production and the current production is looking ugly.

What's the value of digits in the bank when your kid is crying about being hungry.

Got food? As in about a years worth?

Gardens fail for many reasons including midnight visitors both two and four legged. I've a ton of wild turkeys wandering around right now, and I have to Protect my seedlings from them.

One hunting session and they will vanish like they never were here, Except to sneak in and eat gardens.

So, hunting for food might be less calories input than you think, even without all the "interested parties" showing up for their "Fair Share".

Protect your family and trusted friends.

deb harvey said...

read some time ago that sailors were cautioning young sailors to learn to navigate traditionally rather than depend entirely on satellites
many will be lost at sea when satellites fail

nick flandrey said...

Something doesn't smell right with that story. GPS uses a constellation of sats, there are at least 3 different systems up there, and there are receivers that will work with all of them.

Could just be sloppy j-school grads, or the interviewee doesn't know the tech, or something else.

Immarsat's network is normally used to provide voice and data COMMS not positioning data.

There is this from a shipping website



2023 April 17 19:05
Complete loss of Inmarsat services occurred in the Pacific region

Some fishing ships have problems with daily reports

Inmarsat services are not available in the Pacific region due to the abnormal situation on the Inmarsat I-4 F1 satellite, according to the notification received by the Fishing and Communications Monitoring System Center from FSUE Morsviazsputnik. The Center reports complete loss of voice communication and data transfer. According to the Center’s Telegram channel, several fishing ships had problems with daily reports amid absence of other satellite links.

Inmarsat and Morsviazsputnik are working on eliminating the downgrade on the Inmarsat I-4 F1 satellite and is transfering its services to Inmarsat backup satellites. Morsviazsputnik will provide additional information when the services will be restored.

According to Morsviazsputnik, the downgrade was recorded on April 16, 2023 at 21.40 UTC.




so something is going on, but not loss of GPS.
n

Dad29 said...

How the Hell does a "ukraine problem" result in less RICE? When did Ukraine start (or stop) growing that stuff?

Ukraine has a lot of crops to sell, cheap, right now. Both Poland and Hungary (and some other small Euro countries) are fighting to keep cheap-Ukie crops out of their countries.

Anonymous said...

Just a coincidence I'm sure. CRIMES AGAINST HUMANITY.

Anonymous said...

The satellite just happen to crap out at the most inopportune time. Anybody else smell a big, NWO rat? The virus did a poor job of killing us off, so starving us to death may work better. Remember, 20,000 cattle just died in an unexplained fire.

Unknown said...

something is wrong with this reporting.

1. GPS operates from the triangulation of time reports from multiple satellites, not a signal from a single satellite.

2. Inmarsat-41 is not a GPS satellite, it's a communications satellite

so a failure of Inmarsat-41 could cause tractors to not be able to phone home to a master control program somewhere, but it has nothing to do with GPS or them not knowing where they are.

the most that could be missing is a local correction for GPS error, and that would shift all the planting a few feet, but all the planting would be correct relative to everything else in the field (this correction is a single value over tens to hundreds of miles)

But this does show the drawback of the current fad of assuming that everything is going to be network connected at all times.

David Lang

Old NFO said...

Yep, and they've forgotten how to actually 'drive' the equipment... so that 4% loss is potentially 100% because they won't plant until the GPS is back up? Really???

EricW said...

That's bizarre, and I find the story a bit problematic. In the USA and Canada I've owned many GPS units, they utilize a constellation of dedicated GPS satellites in low-mid orbits. These GPS receivers can also work with the Russian GLONASS satellites. INMARSAT uses a geosynchronous constellation for telecomms. Something doesn't add up.

HMS Defiant said...

so, it isn't a pity that the dry weather all across the midwest and north conspired to lower the Mississippi levels to such an extent that barge traffic carrying our grain down to the Gulf Ports really slowed down things. :)

1chota said...

So, they can't just look straight down the field and plant?
something stinks.

Anonymous said...

This may be journalistic excellence SARC referring to the reduction of exports of fertilizer from the Ukraine.
John in Indy

Hamsterman said...

At least baby formula is back on the shelves, right?

Dan said...

In the past three years DOZENS of major food manufacturing and production plants have been destroyed. Hardly a week goes by we don't read about some problem with food production, packaging or transportation. It's almost as if there's a conspiracy to starve vast numbers of people.

Anonymous said...

Correct, however, there is always a but :) Generally speaking, the systems utilise gps data sent to a base station. The base station adds in localised corrections to enhance accuracy down to 1cm then transmits the corrected data to the tractor. This is where the single point of failure exists because they use the inmar sat for data transfer. Farmers did the old fashioned way for a day or so until the problem was resolved.
Bear in mind, when you are ploughing, seeding, and fertilising thousands of acres, high accuracy reduces costs. Always a consideration when your margins are thin.

GB said...

The SBAS augmentation signals are being transmitted from that satellite. It is a grid of corrections that allow you to get down to 10cm without a local base station. https://www.spatialsource.com.au/southpan-service-outage-following-inmarsat-failure/

Anonymous said...

The ground in a paddock can vary considerably. Drone based multispectral imaging is used to get a layout for optimimum:

Planting density
Fertilizer application
Weedkiller application

The days of considering the whole paddock are gone.

In Japan to deal with the ageing farmer problem they have drones which go along a row in a rice paddy. These inspect each plant and give it the appropriate amount of fertilizer or if it is a weed remove it

Fertilizer is not just N ,F and P but lots of other trace elements. Back in the days of doing it in 50 acre paddocks I remember things like Selenium 0.25 gram one paddock 1.6 gms the next. Now this sort of thing is done for each sq meter.

PeterW. said...

Speaking from Oz..
An issue like this will cause a lot of swearing, but it won’t stop the majority for any time longer than is required to reintroduce the kind of workarounds that were used before autosteer was a thing.
Outriggers with marking discs.
Foam markers (I built my first using a $20 tyre inflator).
The modern version for tillage-sowing will probably be a couple of video cameras mounted on the outside tines and bluetoothed to the operator’s phone. When you are driving a million$ rig, a few hundred spent on bits and pieces for a “bush guidance system” isn’t a consideration.

But there’s no need. Checking my email and I have notification from Trimble and John Deere that their systems have been restored to full function

PeterW. said...

Oh…. And wheat is still staying stubbornly below Au$400.

Rice may be preferred in some areas, but when people are hungry they will use substitutes. There is not much of a market reaction.
Don’t forget that the major traders track EVERYTHING that will affect potential supply and prices….. and that includes long-range weather forecasts, not just today’s headlines.

Anonymous said...

Guess I better oil up the old harnesses, comb out Jack's & Lena's manes & grease the grain drill

Dad29 said...

About the Mississippi: you will notice that there are "high water"/flood warnings from the headwaters to St Louis today.

That will progress downstream apace; by end-of-month the Big Muddy will be just fine.

Aesop said...

Always nice when the near-sighted technocrat idiot-savants embrace hanging entire industries from one Single Point Of Failure, and then waiting for Mrs. O'Leary's cow to kick over a lantern.

Jackholes like that deserve what happens to them.