The Nord Stream pipeline sabotage: was Ukraine the guilty party after all?

 

A very long and complex article in the German periodical Der Spiegel suggests that Ukraine was behind the Nord Stream pipeline sabotage attacks last year.  The original article is behind a paywall, but an archived (i.e. non-paywalled) copy is available.  It's far too long to summarize here, but the core findings are as follows.

Officially, politicians and the Office of the Federal Prosecutor are still holding back with any conclusions. Currently, it is not possible to say "this was state-controlled by Ukraine," Federal Prosecutor Otte says. "As far as that is concerned, the investigation is ongoing, much of it still undercover."

Behind the scenes, though, you get clearer statements. Investigators from the BKA, the Federal Police and the Office of the Federal Prosecutor have few remaining doubts that a Ukrainian commando was responsible for blowing up the pipelines. A striking number of clues point to Ukraine, they say. They start with Valeri K., IP addresses of mails and phone calls, location data and numerous other, even clearer clues that have been kept secret so far. One top official says that far more is known than has been stated publicly. According to DER SPIEGEL's sources, investigators are certain that the saboteurs were in Ukraine before and after the attack. Indeed, the overall picture formed by the puzzles pieces of technical information has grown quite clear.

And the possible motives also seem clear to international security circles: The aim, they says, was to deprive Moscow of an important source of revenue for financing the war against Ukraine. And at the same time to deprive Putin once and for all of his most important instrument of blackmail against the German government.

But crucial questions remain unanswered. From how high up was the attack ordered and who knew about it? Was it an intelligence operation that the political leadership in Kyiv learned about only later? Or was it the product of a commando unit acting on its own? Or was it a military operation in which the Ukrainian General Staff was involved? Intelligence experts and security policy experts, however, consider it unlikely that Ukrainian President Zelenskyy was in on it: In cases of sabotage, the political leadership is often deliberately kept in the dark so that they can plausibly deny any knowledge later on.

. . .

Few in Berlin want to think right now about what action should be taken if the involvement of Ukrainian state agencies is proven. On the one hand, Germany couldn't simply brush off such a serious crime. But suspending support for Ukraine in its war against Russia also wouldn't be an option. "Everyone is shying away from the question of consequences," says one member of parliament with a party that is a member of the German government coalition.

The fact that politicians who normally might at least speak off the record are remaining silent and simply ignoring inquiries is an indicator of just how delicate the situation is ... the perception among investigators is that the will to solve the case is not particularly pronounced in the capital. Politically, it is easier to live with what happened if it remains unclear who is behind the attacks. The process is not being hindered, but neither is there much support from the overarching government ministries. Meanwhile, it is clear to career-oriented ministry officials that there is no glory to be had with this case. If only because the culprits will likely never have to answer for their actions in Germany. Even if they could be identified, it's very unlikely they would be extradited.

So Berlin is looking away, and that is definitely being registered in agencies where staff is constantly in short supply and procedures have to be prioritized. All of which leads to the investigation falling down the priority list.

There's much more at the link, including what looks like compelling evidence of Ukrainian involvement.

There's another reason why Ukraine would want to hide its involvement (if any) in the attacks.  The North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) policy is that an attack on the critical infrastructure of any one member is an attack on all members, and calls for a united diplomatic and (if necessary) military response.  If Ukraine were proven to be behind the attacks, it would almost automatically forfeit NATO military support in its war with Russia, and its efforts (and the efforts of neocon warmongers in the USA) to demonize Russia would be dealt a critical blow.

I have no idea about the truth of the situation.  I suspect very few people do.  Nevertheless, the Spiegel investigation appears pretty thorough, and their arguments seem to hold water.  I wonder if we'll ever learn the truth from official sources?  Your guess is as good as mine.

Peter