Heads up, shooters: tariffs and our ammo supply

 

I'm sure many of our more enthusiastic firearms owners have already built up quite a large stash of ammunition to support their sport/hobby/whatever.  However, there are many others who don't bother;  they buy what they need, when they need it, and panic whenever something interrupts normal supply lines to produce an ammo shortage.

The just-introduced tariffs may make some brands of ammunition harder to find, and will almost certainly make them more expensive.  Sam Gabbert of SGAmmo writes:

Late in the afternoon yesterday, the US government's new wide sweeping tariffs on imports were announced. In my opinion, they were worse than expected regarding what effect this will have on price and supply for ammo in the USA.  In short, it is going to drive up prices for the consumer in a dramatic way and totally cut off supply in certain brands over time.

. . .

Example 1 - PMC from South Korea was hit with a 25% tariff and is a major supplier of the most popular options for 5.56/223 ammo, as well as 9mm and many other calibers. This tariff increases the cost to 1000 rounds of 5.56 by about $100, and 1000 rounds 9mm about $50. At that point they simply cannot compete in the market against US manufacturing and most likely would slowly exit the market over the next year with the most popular products drying up first. Also, PMC's mother company, Poongsan Corporation, supplies US ammo manufacturers with a huge portion of copper strip used to make ammunition, which will drive up cost of US manufactures. 

Example 2 - Prvi Partizan in Serbia was hit with a 37% tariff, and is a key supplier of metric rifle calibers, economical handgun ammo, and 5.56 FMJ ammo. This 37% tariff, if it holds, will totally force them out of business and you will see this manufacturer totally exit the US market over the next 6 months.

Example 3 - Igman in Bosnia, a key supplier of 7.62x39 and 7.62x51 ammo was hit with a 36% tariff, which increases the cost of 1000 rounds of 7.62x39 by about $180. No one will import it at all if this cost is added.

Example 4 - , Sellier & Bellot in the EU (Czech Republic) was hit with a 20% tariff. This drives the cost of their 9mm up $40 per 1000 and affects other products in a similar way, and at that point they cannot compete in the market on many popular products. 

Example 5 - Magtech in Brazil was hit with the smallest tariff at 10%, but still substantial to drive 9mm prices up $20 or so per 1000 rounds.

In my opinion, unless the tariffs are reversed or reduced to much lower levels, the most likely course for where we are at is that many of the import ammo brands are driven out of business in 6 months to a year or are forced to charge unrealistic prices that very few consumers will pay, shrinking their volume to an unsubstantial point. At the same time, US manufacturing most likely slowly raises prices 3% to 8% once each quarter of remaining 2025 and early 2026, pushing prices up to match import competitors on the most popular calibers like 9mm, 45 auto and 5.56 / 223 and more, where profit margins have been suffering due to price cuts over the past 2 years while also dealing with continuous upward movements in manufacturing costs. What you do is your business, but this will have an undeniable effect of forced price increases at our store and all other ammunition websites and retailers of all types, and it is my opinion that buying today will save you in the long run.

There's more at the link.

I've got mine, thank you very much;  but I've already advised those who expend a few hundred rounds of practice ammo every year (which is a minimum level, let it be said) to increase their stockpile.  Furthermore, this might be a good time to invest in a lower-cost training or practice weapon, shooting cheaper ammunition, to back up your primary defensive weapons.  .22LR or 9mm ball costs a lot less than some larger cartridges, which can save a bundle on training, even taking the cost of a "spare" weapon into account.  The latter can pay for itself very quickly in terms of ammo savings.

Just a thought . . .

Peter