Matthew Bracken, former SEAL, author and astute observer of the world around us, reminds us that the staggering cost of a potential war with Iran over that country's nuclear program is not just military.
In the event of a kinetic war against Iran, all petroleum tankers will be blocked from leaving the Persian Gulf, not only Iranian ships. Iran has hundreds of mobile truck-mounted anti-ship cruise missiles hidden in rugged mountainous terrain on a wide arc north of Oman and controlling the Strait of Hormuz. This arc is 300 miles wide and 100 miles deep. Iranian missile forces may well act under standing orders to attack all shipping once an American attack on Iran begins. Even a total decapitation strike against Iranian communications will not prevent these standing orders from being carried out. Iran will be determined to share their pain across the region and around the world.
Iranian anti-ship missile forces will not fire all their rockets at the beginning of this conflict. Instead, missile teams will have separate standing orders. Teams will be instructed to scout for shipping and fire at anything in the strait on different timelines after the war begins. Their goal will be to prevent the resumption of shipping for weeks or even months. The Iranian Revolutionary Guards in charge of these missiles will not care about the pain being inflicted upon civilians in Teheran. They will follow their orders with the dedication of Japanese holdouts in the Pacific ... To root out hundreds of these mobile anti-ship missiles “the hard way” using infantry troops would require a land invasion greater than Normandy and Okinawa combined.
. . .
The ongoing missile war in the Red Sea gives us some hints about what to expect. Yes, the U.S. military can kick the hell out of the Houthis in Yemen, but this is no real test when compared to what we will face if we go to war with Iran ... In my opinion, any military planners who assume we can destroy a wide range of strategic military targets inside Iran, from their nuclear to their ballistic missile programs, without suffering an extreme economic blowback, is a damn fool.
There's more at the link.
If the USA goes to war with Iran, it'll inevitably involve Israel, and probably at least half of the nations in the Persian Gulf area will take sides and join in. That, plus Iranian countermeasures, will pose a severe threat to a very large part of the world's oil supply. Half to three-quarters of the oil consumed in China, Japan and South Korea (to say nothing of other Asian nations) comes from the Persian Gulf. If that supply is interrupted the economic costs to those countries, and to all other countries that rely on their industrial production, would be incalculable.
I agree that we have to rein in the fanatical religious government in Iran . . . but doing so in a way that inflicts minimum damage, destruction and disruption on the rest of the world will be far from easy, and probably very costly. Here in the USA, we'll certainly feel the heat from it.
Peter
18 comments:
And that we'll feel the heat Assumes we don't have motivated small teams INSIDE America awaiting their orders.
Unlike Fed controlled Burn Loot Murder and antifa so celebrated by Democrats Iran's teams will target real targets like power grid and water systems.
Uncontrolled boarders have been the default for several years.
The whole reason the US is nearly at war with Iran is because of israel... Biggest ally my tuckus! They are a pox on the planet!
'He who can destroy a thing owns it"
"Half to three-quarters of the oil consumed in China, Japan and South Korea (to say nothing of other Asian nations) comes from the Persian Gulf. If that supply is interrupted the economic costs to those countries, and to all other countries that rely on their industrial production, would be incalculable."
Which raises the question "on whose side will those countries land if the Iranians, for whatever reason, begin exacting a heavy toll on international oil trade if a conflict arises?"
Will they blame the US for "initiating the conflict," the Iranians for "kamikaze politics," or something else? Will they stand by andcomplain or join in and assist in resolution of the threat?
And, is there another potentiql path to success that isn't being publicized?
Not to sound too flippant but we have been pointing out the problem with Iran and the oil supply since 1984. The countries mentioned really have had all the time in the world to get off the Persian Gulf oil for insanity train and should have. Japan was going nuke until the Tsunami wrecked their brains and the other 2 know better. Of course there is always Russian oil and energy and oh yeah, the ONLY THING keeping the mullahs afloat ontop of the festering snake pit that is modern Iran is their continuing ability to ship oil since it is the only product Iran makes and ships and they're in dire enough straits without slitting their own throats by closing the Strait.
No, it's because the Iranians want to be in charge in the Middle East, and we don't want them to have either direct or indirect control of the oil there.
The Israelis are a necessary part of any anti-Iranian coalition because they're actually good at war, and they're a good ally for us because there isn't a snowball's chance in Hell that they'll take over the Middle East.
Something most people don't realize is that we are already at war with Iran. Iran formally declared war on the United States and Israel in 1979 and has been prosecuting war against us, almost entirely unanswered, ever since. The Obama and Biden regimes helped them put their assets in place in America. The illegal immigrant invasion they facilitated was cover for it, among other things.
What happened to WW3 in Ukraine? Where did it go?
War is Hell. Never forget that.
Before the 1973 Arab Oil Embargo, the USA was importing about 70% of its crude oil from various sources: Middle East, Mexico, Canada, and Venezuela. Due to the combined magics of directed oil well drilling and cracking, we now import only 15% of our crude oil. And we turn around and sell about 25% of the gasoline and diesel produced with all that domestic and imported crude oil to Mexico, Europe, Japan, China, Caribbean, etc.
So, if we get embargoed again, the USA will not be affected much. But the rest of the world will be sucking wind since they will not be able to import very much crude oil.
Those terms are acceptable.
If the end game is Iran depopulated to a depth of anywhere within 250 miles from the Straits of Hormuz, so be it.
They've been storing up this treasure since 1978. It's time most of it landed back on them.
A dozen Gulf States will bankroll whatever we do, publicly or privately.
So at the end of the day, the net cost is less Iranians.
Boo frickin' hoo.
You could have condensed your reply to "JOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOS!"
I could have, but I like giving actual explanations for why anti-Zionist/Semitic conspiracy mongering is nonsense.
Not our circus, not our monkeys.
Wow, just like Ukraine and out of ammo Russians, RIGHT?
"Not our circus, not our monkeys."
The problem with that attitude is that you can pull back and not police the seas. At which point either no one does it (unstable, and you get pirates again) or someone else does it and you Americans end up unhappy with the result.
Take out their nuke program, then take out the Mullahs down to the Shariah police, maybe street-preacher level. Will we get hit by Republican Guard/Cartel sleeper cells? OF COURSE. That's been unavoidable, since at least mid '24, thanks to insane border policy. Is there a choice, aside from play the hand we've dealt ourselves?
LOL, take them out.
Buddy have you been asleep for the past few decades?
We've LOST EVERY FREAKING WAR we've gotten into since WW2, and history show the Soviet Union fought over 65% of that war before we got active.
When we get "Mission Accomplished" then end result shows we still managed to lose anyway. We trained Saddam and set him up, same with Kaddafi and almost every tinpot dictator we ended up fighting at great COST for WHAT?
Maybe we should read what our founding fathers wrote about "entangling alliances" AGAIN.
When pirates became an issue, we went over and crushed them. AND Went back home.
Not establishing hundreds of bases across the freaking globe.
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