James Howard Kunstler appears to think so.
The conclusion of “Joe Biden’s” Ukraine War fiasco looms. You can tell because The New York Times published a gigantic piece Sunday detailing how the Pentagon and the CIA actually ran all of Ukraine’s tactical operations out of a base in Wiesbaden, Germany — after building a colossal Ukraine war machine post our 2014 color revolution in Kiev. Since the very start of the hot war in 2022, we did all the targeting for the weapons we gave them and planned their every move. What a surprise! (Not.)
The motive behind all that, as conceived by US neo-cons and NATO neo-morons, was to “weaken” Russia, bust it up, and seize its resources. All the sanctions piled on only induced Russia into an import-replacement campaign that actually strengthened its economy, while the war led to a revolution in Russian war-fighting tactics and advanced weaponry. Now, the whole thing is ending in Ukraine’s defeat and the West’s humiliation.
The Times could have published this in 2023-24, but it would have been a major embarrassment for “Joe Biden” and his shadow managers moving into the election. They put it out just now because the jig is up and the paper desperately needs to pretend that it’s ahead of events to preserve the last shreds of its credibility.
Mr. Trump, the uber-realist, knows that the Russians are going to roll up in Ukraine this spring and there is increasingly not much that can be done about that, except to try to put the best face on it — which is, that it wasn’t his war. As long as the coke freak Zelensky remains in charge, Ukraine will be negotiation-unworthy, as the Russian phrase goes. So, US-Russia peace talks were largely diplomatic showbiz. Both Putin and Mr. Trump were painfully aware of this, and hence, Mr. Trump’s latest performative bluster about “more sanctions” will probably not amount to anything.
And also hence, the synchronized idiocy on display in France, Germany, and the UK. They were all-in on the neo-con scheme that is now falling apart and its failure has driven them plumb crazy. As the US drops out of the stupid proxy war, they declare their intention to take it from here and go beat-up Russia. Their war-drums are teaspoons beating on so many quiches.
There's more at the link.
I like Mr. Kunstler's description of President Trump as an "uber-realist". I hope and pray he's right. Heaven knows, we need a realist in the Oval Office, rather than the cloud-cuckoo-land flights of political and ideological fantasy that have polluted it for the past four years!
It's time for cold, hard realism to prevail in considering options in and for Ukraine. Without it, this will degenerate into a never-ending slogging match that will poison Europe for generations to come. We need to cut the Gordian knot of foreign policy fantasy that's been created by idiots over the past decade or more, and get back to realpolitik.
Peter
19 comments:
I doubt that Russia will roll up Ukraine to the Romanian border. Trump and Putin are both realists and the reality is that it's bad politics to do that. Russia will take what it can from the deal and will live to fight (better, one would hope) another day. This isn't the time to poke the Eagle.
It wouldn't surprise me to see something soon about the biolabs the Russians claimed, turning out to be real. Especially if media can tar Trump with it.
I also don't think Russia will roll up Ukraine - that may spook too many people into bad reactions. But that doesn't mean they don't advance enough to collapse the Ukraine government and have a 'friendlier' group sue for peace on terms agreeable to Russia. Agreeing to that also allows Russia to look more magnanimous and reasonable -- rather than what they would look like physically taking the whole thing.
Simply look for the best most that Russia can get from the conquest of Ukraine and expect that to be Putin's opening argument. He can be bargained down if done well and sincerely since I don't think he really wants anything out of Ukraine but it to be a neutral disarmed state on his border and what he wanted at the outset, namely, Kiev to stop attacking the ethnic Russians that the USSR left behind.
The reason that Russia will not roll up to the Romania border is the cost filing a hostile population is too high.
But, parts of Ukraine may get returned to Romania, Poland, and Hungary.
I believe Putin will reiterate what he said at the start of the SMO. Plus no Zelensky government in Ukraine.
I don't like Putin for various reasons, but he puts a better, ugly face on this whole mess than any other world leader. It's sad when you think about it.
Waitwaitwait,... the NYT is a reliable source now...?
Last I looked, Trump was "pissed" because Puytin turned out to be exactly the despicable KGB scumbag anyone with two brain cells would have known him to be, and Russia has zero reason to accommodate Trump's fervent wishes to put the toothpaste back in the tube.
Trump throwing Ukraine under the bus is going to be 10x the debacle that Biden's Afghan rout was, and everyone's going to live to regret it.
Except a lot of residents of Ukraine.
Well played, President Chamberlain. "Peace in our time."
Having unlocked that achievement, the only one remaining is the Quisling level of geopolitical stupidity.
Wait until the "realism" of the current state of the U.S. military smacks him across the face.
And still no Epstein files, and no arrests.
Kick that football, Charley Browns of the republic.
We are so in danger of getting nuked right now.
Yeah, no. Putin knows that if he nukes us he's not going to have a country left to rule by the time we're done.
Yes, reality is sadly needed right now! Thankfully, it is Trump, NOT Kamala that is there.
The Russians have stated their goals for 3 years now. That, plus a "buffer zone" which depends on how stupid the end-game gets is probably where they will stop...probably.
Trump throwing Ukraine under the bus is going to be 10x the debacle that Biden's Afghan rout was, and everyone's going to live to regret it.
Really...We the American public asked for this at the polls after hundreds of billions of Our tax dollars were wasted by your Biden Regime.
And neither will we
The "realism" of the current state of the US military is part of the reason Trump isn't interested in playing world police against Russia.
I keep getting visions of a repeat of the summer of 1914. fortunately Trump isn't Wilson, and Putin isn't quite as delusional as the Tsar. However. with Ukraine playing the role of both Austria-Hungary and Serbia, and France England and Germany reprising their roles in the "Great Game" of the 19th century, things could go sideways with a quickness. Only Trump and Putin seem to understand that this time around nuclear weapons are (will be?) involved.
The only practical solution I can see is partitioning Ukraine. Russia gets Crimea, the Donbas region and a guarantee that Ukraine will not become a NATO member. Ukraine gets to keep Kiev and the rest of Ukraine, with a US, not NATO, presence protecting our economic interests and thus providing security for Ukraine. Mr. Z needs to retire to a nice tropical island in the Caribbean. The libs will claim Trump is giving Russia everything they wanted, and in a way that's true. However, it's better than either of the two other scenarios. 1) NATO goes full 1914 on Russia and drives the Russians back to their pre-war borders, easier said than done, Putin seeing defeat in Ukraine and revolution at home has nothing to lose, and launches ICBMs against England, France and Germany, NATO retaliates and WWIII ensues. 2) Even with EU, aid Russia continues to drive forward taking all of Ukraine, establishes a puppet government, and strips Ukraine of all salable resources, strengthens their alliance with China and plans for the next addition to the New Russian Empire.
--Nuke Road Warrior
I think you have an inflated idea of USA INCs power. So does Trump. This could go very badly with Trump's ego.
Putin will do his best to keep it on the rails.
Russia could roll up the rapidly disintegrating Uke forces, but Putin wants none of the territory west of Kiev. He just wants the Russian parts.
@KevinM,
If you think it was "my" Biden regime, you're not tall enough for the internet.
If Biden had come out in favor of oxygen, you'd still be holding your breath.
That doesn't make you smart, just predictable. Keep Rootin' For Putin. You'll have your reward in due course, as Trump is finding out daily.
Part of the problem is that Russia is acting like a bully, and appeasing bullies doesn’t solve root problems, it makes them worse. Putin has been open about restoring the USSR – bringing free countries back under a slave state relationship (Baltics, Ukraine,…).. Russia stole the Crimea and in 2022 they invaded Ukraine. Ukraine did not invade Russia. In addition, a significant reason there are many Russians in Ukraine is because of the Holodomir. Sacrificing Ukraine to Russia may be “Realpolitik”, but it is a morally bankrupt position. Victim-blaming Ukraine doesn’t change that.
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