Sunday, December 26, 2010

The globular worming alarmists are at it again . . .

I noted (with some cynicism) an article in the Independent last week.

Scientists have established a link between the cold, snowy winters in Britain and melting sea ice in the Arctic and have warned that long periods of freezing weather are likely to become more frequent in years to come.

An analysis of the ice-free regions of the Arctic Ocean has found that the higher temperatures there caused by global warming, which have melted the sea ice in the summer months, have paradoxically increased the chances of colder winters in Britain and the rest of northern Europe.

. . .

The researchers used computer models to assess the impact of the disappearing Arctic sea ice, particularly in the area of the Barents and Kara seas north of Scandinavia and Russia, which have experienced unprecedented losses of sea ice during summer.

Their models found that, as the ice cap over the ocean disappeared, this allowed the heat of the relatively warm seawater to escape into the much colder atmosphere above, creating an area of high pressure surrounded by clockwise-moving winds that sweep down from the polar region over Europe and the British Isles. Vladimir Petoukhov, who carried out the study at the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research in Germany, said the computer simulations showed that the disappearing sea ice is likely to have widespread and unpredictable impacts on the climate of the northern hemisphere.

One of the principal predictions of the study was that the warming of the air over the ice-free seas is likely to bring bitterly cold air to Europe during the winter months, Dr Petoukhov said. "This is not what one would expect. Whoever thinks that the shrinking of some far away sea-ice won't bother him could be wrong. There are complex interconnections in the climate system, and in the Barents-Kara Sea we might have discovered a powerful feedback mechanism," he said.

. . .

The computer model used by the scientists also predicted that, as the ice cover continues to be lost, the weather pattern is likely to shift back into a phase of warmer-than-usual winters. Global warming will also continue to warm the Arctic air mass, Professor Rahmstorf said.

"If you look ahead 40 or 50 years, these cold winters will be getting warmer because, even though you are getting an inflow of cold polar air, that air mass is getting warmer because of the greenhouse effect," he said. "So it's a transient phenomenon. In the long run, global warming wins out."

There's more at the link.

These global warming fanatics never cease to amaze me. Their computer models have been completely and utterly discredited. If you enter into their models actual records from, say, 1900 to 1975, and then try to have the models predict the period from 1975 to 2000, they never get it right. Not once. Their predicted results never square with the actual figures recorded during those years . . . yet, they're still trying to persuade us that their models can predict the future! Verily, the mind doth boggle . . .

As Investors Business Daily pointed out:

The sight of confused and angry travelers stuck in airports across Europe because of an arctic freeze that has settled across the continent isn't funny. Sadly, they've been told for more than a decade now that such a thing was an impossibility — that global warming was inevitable, and couldn't be reversed.

This is a big problem for those who see human-caused global warming as an irreversible result of the Industrial Revolution's reliance on carbon-based fuels. Based on global warming theory — and according to official weather forecasts made earlier in the year — this winter should be warm and dry. It's anything but. Ice and snow cover vast parts of both Europe and North America, in one of the coldest Decembers in history.

A cautionary tale? You bet. Prognosticators who wrote the U.N.'s Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, or IPCC, global warming report in 2007 predicted an inevitable, century-long rise in global temperatures of two degrees or more. Only higher temperatures were foreseen. Moderate or even lower temperatures, as we're experiencing now, weren't even listed as a possibility.

Since at least 1998, however, no significant warming trend has been noticeable. Unfortunately, none of the 24 models used by the IPCC views that as possible. They are at odds with reality.

Karl Popper, the late, great philosopher of science, noted that for something to be called scientific, it must be, as he put it, "falsifiable." That is, for something to be scientifically true, you must be able to test it to see if it's false. That's what scientific experimentation and observation do. That's the essence of the scientific method.

Unfortunately, the prophets of climate doom violate this idea. No matter what happens, it always confirms their basic premise that the world is getting hotter. The weather turns cold and wet? It's global warming, they say. Weather turns hot? Global warming. No change? Global warming. More hurricanes? Global warming. No hurricanes? You guessed it.

. . .

No matter what the weather, it's all due to warming. This isn't science; it's a kind of faith. Scientists go along and even stifle dissent because, frankly, hundreds of millions of dollars in research grants are at stake. But for the believers, global warming is the god that failed.

Why do we continue to listen to warmists when they're so wrong? Maybe it's because their real agenda has nothing to do with climate change at all. Earlier this month, attendees of a global warming summit in Cancun, Mexico, concluded, with virtually no economic or real scientific support, that by 2020 rich nations need to transfer $100 billion a year to poor nations to help them "mitigate" the adverse impacts of warming.

This is what global warming is really about — wealth redistribution by people whose beliefs are basically socialist. It has little or nothing to do with climate.

Again, there's more at the link.

I have a suggestion. Let's take all the doom-and-gloom anthropogenic global warming prognosticators, and stick them in an academic ivory tower with all the economists who didn't see the current financial collapse coming. They can publish papers to and for each other to their hearts' content . . . and leave the rest of us to get on with reality.

Works for me!



Jerrac said...

"Their computer models have been completely and utterly discredited."
Do you have a source for that? I'd like to add it to my folder of resources for proof against GW.

Noons said...

and quite a few here as well, but you gotta search through:

And Jerry Pournelle's blog - - still talks about climate change quite often. In fact there was a recent heavy discussion with supporters of the antro-thingie, in which it was once more proven they are a bunch of fanatics rather than scientists.

John Peddie (Toronto) said...

Global warming is an industry unto itself-a hobby horse, if you will, upon which are mounted All The Best People, charging into the fray of yet another Conspiracy.

In the spirit of the Season, let us forgive them: after all, there are books that need to be sold, and talk show appearances to make.

(Their) livelihoods and (increasingly tattered) reputations depend on it.

Anonymous said...

John, the problem with forgiving the A.G.W., hmmm, "enthusiasts" is that their advice to governments is now costing lives, especially in England. The Met Office, Climate Research Unit (CRU of the CRU-tape Letters AKA Climategate e-mails) and others should be held responsible for their actions and at least some of the results there from. As long as they insist that what is going on this winter is not really going on, then I have a hard tome being especially charitable.

Anonymous said...

I'd say draft the lot of them to shovel all that Global Warming off the streets & walkways.