So . . . about tomorrow's elections . . .

 

I don't think anybody knows what to expect from tomorrow's elections.  There have been so many early votes (some say more than 50% of the US electorate has already cast their ballots) that it's shattered all precedents.  That should, in fact, make it easier and quicker to vote tomorrow in person, because polling stations won't be so crowded.  That, in turn, is said to favor Republicans, who always seem to do better with votes cast on polling day rather than early voting, which appears to favor Democrats - historically, at any rate.

Who will win?  Your guess is as good as mine.  It's very important to remember that we aren't just voting for the Presidency.  The entire House of Representatives and one-third of the Senate are also up for election.  If one party gains control of the White House, but the Senate and the House go to the other, we've got massive political conflict ahead.  If the current status quo is maintained - Democratic House, Republican Senate and President - then I guess political gridlock is going to be a major feature of the next four years.  If one party gains control of all three . . . then we've probably got major civil unrest ahead, as one side flatly refuses to accept or obey the laws passed by the other.  Partisan extremism is running at a dangerously high pitch, and I don't know that either side will accept defeat.

My sincere hope is that we get a quick result.  If, within forty-eight hours or so after the vote, we know for sure who's going to be our next President, that'll help clarify the situation, and may defuse some of the accumulated tension.  If we don't, the uncertainty is likely to make things much worse.  I'm expecting urban unrest no matter who wins, but I'm hoping and praying that it can be kept to a controllable minimum.  If it gets out of hand, things are going to be messy.

Who do I expect to win?  I honestly have no idea.  If I had to make a guess, I'd say President Trump probably has enough support (including those who refuse to admit or discuss their support for him) to win the Electoral College, perhaps with plus-or-minus 290 votes.  However, opinion polls forecast that I'm wrong.  I guess we'll see.  I don't think he can possibly win the popular vote, given the huge preponderance of Democratic Party support on the West Coast.

I have no idea what's going to happen in the Senate.  I think the Republican Party will lose some seats there, but they also have a chance to take two or three seats away from the Democrats, so the end result might not be too different from what we have now.  It'll be a nail-biter, I'm sure.

As for the House of Representatives, given the shenanigans the Democratic Party has gotten up to there over the past few years, I think that simple justice would demand their resounding defeat at the polls.  However, justice has been conspicuous by its absence from that chamber, so I won't hold my breath waiting!  I presume the Democrats will maintain control there, but even that can't be taken for granted.  In 2018, for example, Democrats used the then-newly-legal technique of "ballot harvesting" to take all seven Congressional seats in Orange County, California, away from Republicans.  This year, the Republicans have embraced the same techniques and strategy.  If they can take back some or all of those seats, that'll put a severe crimp in the Democrats' style;  and if they can repeat that success in a few more constituencies, who knows?  Perhaps control of the House is not as certain as the pundits would have us believe.  Only time will tell.

Sadly, given the urban unrest that has rocked this country since March, I expect this to be a turbulent and possibly violent election season.  Please stay as safe as you can, dear readers, and keep your powder dry.  You may need it.

Peter