Ground combat in an age of drone warfare

 

I was interested to read Big Country's perspective on the utility of infantry in an age of drone warfare, as epitomized by what we're seeing from Ukraine.  He says bluntly that "The Infantry Is Dead (For Now)".  Go read his views.  (Language warning:  his article is not family-friendly - but then, neither is warfare.)

Having seen combat in an earlier age of warfare, where the quantity and quality of "boots on the ground" made the difference between victory and defeat, I have a certain amount of sympathy with his views.  However, I suspect that the present situation is going to be relatively short-term.  Right now we have commercial drones being weaponized, equipped with explosive devices that can be dropped on enemy vehicles and positions (even individual soldiers) almost with impunity.  There's no real defense against them unless your soldiers are equipped with sights for their rifles designed to allow them to shoot down the drones concerned.  (Israel offers perhaps the best-known example.  It's currently being field-tested by several other countries, including multiple users in the US armed forces.)

I suspect the very near future is going to see three developments that will change the picture.

1. Both sides will field drones simultaneously against each other's soldiers.  Thus, an attacking force might target defenders using drones, but the defending force will do exactly the same to the attackers.  We'll have drones dropping explosives all over the place, making it very hard to know who sent which drone to do what to whom.  It'll add greatly to the confusion of any battlefield.
2. Electronic and other counter-measures are going to proliferate like mad.  That's already happening, but today's relatively primitive systems are going to multiply and become ubiquitous.  I can foresee every soldier, and every vehicle, carrying a "personal jammer" to deflect drone attacks.  Those, in turn, will probably become targeting aids for drones, which will be able to home on a jamming signal and drop something nasty on its source (already a major factor in airborne and missile warfare).  Nevertheless, it's probably inevitable.
3. I predict we'll see new drones designed to do nothing but hunt down the other side's drones.  Think World War I.  Initially, aircraft were used only for reconnaissance, finding out what the enemy was up to.  In due course, the first bombs were dropped, to disrupt what the enemy was doing.  To stop both activities, fighter aircraft were designed to stop enemy aircraft from doing their thing.  I think we'll see "fighter drones" coming down the pike, to do precisely the same thing in modern terms.  I'll be very surprised indeed if they're not already being developed, along with weapons to equip them for that task.

Battlefield drones will also adapt to use "swarm" technology, just as bigger UAV's are doing.  Some sources say that Ukraine is already using an early version of this.  Pundits are talking about literally thousands of drones working together to dominate a battlefield, some of them produced near the combat area using containerized manufacturing facilities.  If thousands of drones are used, hundreds at least are likely to be destroyed, making it almost impossible to resupply them from factories hundreds or thousands of miles away.  Distributed manufacturing on the spot will eliminate that weakness.

Once we get to that point, the question becomes "How will infantry or armored vehicles be able to operate at all on a battlefield where any and every movement attracts hostile attention?"  At present, nobody is able to answer that question.  We may see unmanned vehicles and robotic "infantry" becoming ubiquitous, because losing a machine is cheaper and more sustainable than losing a highly trained (and therefore expensive) individual soldier or crew.  On the other hand, if the drones spend all their time looking for and fighting each other, perhaps the footsloggers can sneak through undetected.  Who knows?

I'm glad I'm not a soldier in today's military.  I'd hate being drone fodder.

Peter