I'm finding the signals concerning the forthcoming mid-term elections to be decidedly mixed at present.
On the one hand, you have the mainstream media conducting their polls, confidently predicting that the Democratic Party will dominate and take over Congress at least, and possibly even the Senate as well. For example:
With their supporters energized in opposition to Donald Trump, Democrats hold their widest advantage in midterm election vote preferences since 2006, when they seized control of both houses of Congress.
Rebounding from a tighter contest in the spring, Democratic House candidates now lead their Republican opponents nationally by 52-38 percent among registered voters in a new ABC News/Washington Post poll – a lead that holds up across a range of likely voter models.
Surpassing that Democratic lead in vote choice, 60 percent of registered voters say they’d rather see the next Congress controlled by the Democrats, as a check on Trump, than by the GOP, to support Trump’s agenda. Preference for Democratic control is up 8 points from a year ago.
The Democrats’ advantage reflects Trump’s broad unpopularity.
There's more at the link.
I can't help but recall that these same news organizations were among those that scoffed at the possibility of President Trump winning the 2016 election. "Hillary can't lose!" Yeah, right. I also note the reference to "Trump's broad unpopularity". That makes me question the entire poll, because among his base, it seems the President is anything but unpopular. For example:
There is a very specific reason why U.S. print and broadcast media focused intensely on pushing their anti-Trump funeralpalozza narrative. As we saw in the 2016 election cycle, the goal of the DC proletariat is to create a false sense of the electoral landscape.
What they don’t want people to see are reports like this. Last Thursday night’s President Trump rally drew the Ford Center’s largest crowd ever, according to manager VenuWorks. The turnout: 11,500 people, with another 2,000 unable to get in.
Just like there was no precedent for a single primary candidate -amid a group of 17- to draw 15,000 people to any event in 2015, so too is there no precedent for 13,500 people showing up to a political rally during a non-presidential mid-term election season.
. . .
Look carefully. Do not look away. This is President Obama’s former campaign manager David Plouffe. Think about the message here . . . “his kind”:
The awakened American middle-class insurgency, led by Donald Trump, is an existential threat to the professional political class and every entity who lives in/around the professional political class. The entire political industry is threatened by the insurgency. The entire political industry is threatened by Donald Trump.
Again, more at the link.
So, which is it? An all-but-certain Democratic "blue wave" that will sweep them to control of Congress, allow them to impeach the President, and guarantee the obstruction of his agenda at every turn? Or an energized Trumpian base that will push back, turn out to vote in numbers at least as large as they did in 2016, and provide enough votes to keep Congress Republican? I just don't know. The signals are very mixed. Who to believe? Who to trust?
I'll be interested to hear from you, dear readers. In your part of the country, what are you seeing and hearing? What are your neighbors, associates, co-workers, and so on saying about this election? What's the local mood? If enough of us leave a comment with that information, perhaps we can all get a better sense of what may happen. I hope so, anyway.