Remember my "war warning"?

A week ago I posted an article titled 'This is a War Warning', analyzing regional and global conflicts and concluding that the odds of a major war breaking out within the next year - one that might drag the USA into the conflict - were very high.

One of the scenarios I postulated was an attempt by Iran to close the Strait of Hormuz in the Persian Gulf. Guess what story broke today?

A MEMBER of the Iranian parliament’s national security committee has said the military is to practise its ability to close the Gulf to shipping at the narrow Strait of Hormuz, the most important oil transit channel in the world.

Parviz Sarvari told student news agency ISNA yesterday: “Soon we will hold a military manoeuvre on how to close the Strait of Hormuz. If the world wants to make the region insecure, we will make the world insecure.”

There's more at the link.

Iran might close the Strait of Hormuz in response to what it perceives as foreign provocation (epitomized by the recent crash of a US RQ-170 UAV in Iran), or in response to a pre-emptive strike on its nuclear program by Israel. (Israel might do so without bothering to obtain US approval, because Israel doesn't trust the Obama administration at all).

If Iran does close the Strait of Hormuz, it's as certain as death and taxes that the US Navy will be called upon to open it again. That would almost certainly bring other Islamic nations into the conflict - and once it spreads, it'll be a whole lot harder to stop the fighting.

Peter