In December last year I predicted that a major war would break out sometime in the next year. We're two-thirds of the way through that 12-month period, but I see no reason to change my prediction (in fact, I'm astonished that we haven't seen open hostilities yet!).
In line with my earlier predictions, note these recent developments in the Middle East.
- Hard-line Islamic radicals have now taken control of Egypt, including its armed forces, and appear to be moving forces into the Sinai Peninsula, ostensibly to fight 'radicals' and 'terrorists' there, but nevertheless in violation of the Camp David Accords. I doubt very much whether those forces will be withdrawn - instead, I expect to see them reinforced with weapons that directly threaten Israel's security and/or allow co-operation with Hamas radicals in Gaza.
- The new Islamic leader of Egypt is planning to visit Iran. What would two radical Islamic leaders have to discuss with one another? I'll give you three guesses. They're all a one-word reply, the name of a nation, beginning with the letter 'I'.
- Iranian Revolutionary Guards have been taken prisoner by rebels inside Syria, and Iranian unmanned aerial vehicles have been shot down by the rebels. Why would Iran be fighting to preserve the repressive Syrian state? What do you suppose Israel thinks about this?
- Iran's president has just called Israel's existence an 'insult to all humanity', and his Hezbollah allies have threatened to 'transform the lives of millions of Israelis to hell'. Again, do you think this gives Israel warm fuzzies?
- Israel continues to make loud noises about the need to attack Iran's nuclear program - if necessary alone, without US support. The issue appears to be dividing the nation. Some believe this is all smoke and mirrors. I study history - and if you think Israel's military history is one of bluff and bluster, I suspect you and I haven't been reading the same books.
I still maintain war is very close indeed. It'll be a miracle of Divine grace, IMHO, if we manage to avoid it. I'll be delighted if I'm wrong . . . but if one looks at the ongoing violence in Syria, and the imminent collapse of its government, I don't think I am.