In December last year I predicted that a major war would break out sometime in the next year. We're two-thirds of the way through that 12-month period, but I see no reason to change my prediction (in fact, I'm astonished that we haven't seen open hostilities yet!).
In line with my earlier predictions, note these recent developments in the Middle East.
- Hard-line Islamic radicals have now taken control of Egypt, including its armed forces, and appear to be moving forces into the Sinai Peninsula, ostensibly to fight 'radicals' and 'terrorists' there, but nevertheless in violation of the Camp David Accords. I doubt very much whether those forces will be withdrawn - instead, I expect to see them reinforced with weapons that directly threaten Israel's security and/or allow co-operation with Hamas radicals in Gaza.
- The new Islamic leader of Egypt is planning to visit Iran. What would two radical Islamic leaders have to discuss with one another? I'll give you three guesses. They're all a one-word reply, the name of a nation, beginning with the letter 'I'.
- Iranian Revolutionary Guards have been taken prisoner by rebels inside Syria, and Iranian unmanned aerial vehicles have been shot down by the rebels. Why would Iran be fighting to preserve the repressive Syrian state? What do you suppose Israel thinks about this?
- Iran's president has just called Israel's existence an 'insult to all humanity', and his Hezbollah allies have threatened to 'transform the lives of millions of Israelis to hell'. Again, do you think this gives Israel warm fuzzies?
- Israel continues to make loud noises about the need to attack Iran's nuclear program - if necessary alone, without US support. The issue appears to be dividing the nation. Some believe this is all smoke and mirrors. I study history - and if you think Israel's military history is one of bluff and bluster, I suspect you and I haven't been reading the same books.
I still maintain war is very close indeed. It'll be a miracle of Divine grace, IMHO, if we manage to avoid it. I'll be delighted if I'm wrong . . . but if one looks at the ongoing violence in Syria, and the imminent collapse of its government, I don't think I am.
Peter
7 comments:
Concur with your conclusions. It's going to happen, whether the 'warm fuzzy' crowd likes it or not.
I don't think Israel will wait and see. They don't have the pleasantries of politics and only one recourse for any chance of survival. The dissenters will either become involved or become one of the enemy.
Concur, and we WILL be cut out of the loop...
I have been preparing for a war for the last year or two (in fact preparing for any TEOTWAWKI) little by little. I am not ready yet so I hope it waits.
I do believe we are inevitably headed for another world war. I think though, it is just as likely it will start in the Far East more so than the Middle East; there has been an awful lot of friction (not reported in US Media all that much) over fishing rights in the South China Sea and it has been going on and getting very edgy for quite some time now. Food is more precious than oil, lack of it more of a security threat than nukes.
Still though, it is almost a toss up as to where it will start but you can bet China will be a major player and not on our side unless Obama gives us up to them as their stooges and we are on their side. In that case, I also expect a civil war, right here.
Russia, not likely to be allied with us either.
Of course, if it starts in the Middle East, I am, hopeful we will stand with Israel. Quite possibly though, there is little U.S. loyalty, on the part of the current administration, for me to hope about, in that regard.
All the best,
GB
and our naval exercises start in September in the Strait of Hormuz.
At Glen B. Russia isn't anti-American, just pro Russia. In the far east there really are a few power blocks developing. ASEAN nations are shoring up their defenses as one possible block. India and Russia are a second (Russia is investing heavily into India as India's growth allows them a prime partner and allows them to fund their own military updates). China and Pakistan are of course partnered with any purchases India makes finding an echo in the two. Finally we have Australia and America (and of course traditional allies) shoring up as well. War here is not looking all that likely, but the consequences may be high. With China looking for an economic soft landing, and experiencing a change in leadership don't expect much in the next year or two, however expect a cold war situation to develop in the coming decade. Quite frankly, any war here is liable to be small, possibly proxy wars as all nations have to be mindful of alliances with powerful nuclear armed partners. Of course there is the chance that it all goes belly up, but put it like this, the four British boomer subs alone have enough firepower to wipe China off the map. It's MAD all over again, but with much less capable players.
As for Iran. I don't foresee any war this year. Israel has time, and as we know they keep making more by sabotaging the process. Time will runout the second Iran gets nukes or S300 missiles in bulk, and then we'll have a war. Or maybe not. One strange thing about nukes so far is that they cause relative piece to break out and warfare by other means. Expect Iran to play an Israel-like "can't confirm or deny" game when they finally get nuclear capability and see them trying to position themselves for sanctions to end etc.
Sure, they threaten israel, but my opinion (for what it's worth) is that it's more for internal consumption and external positioning than an actual threat. Look at their attempt to purchase S300s. It's one bluff after the next.
I'm quietly hopeful, and I pray that I'm right. But an air strike is unlikely to stop Iran, probably only egg it on to excellerate other plans.
Either way, guess we can just wait and see. Good luck with the preparations. I'll be doing something similar here in Aus.
Cheers
Luan- Cairns, Australia
I'm not one of the Zionist conspiri-nuts, but if I were Israel, I'd be preparing for an attack on Iran in mid- to late-October. That way, it guarantees the US --specifically, Obama--will back it. If Barry hesitates, even a little, he loses the election. It's that simple, unfortunately.
Antibubba
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